How much faith do you have in the core 4?

[Gary Nylund]

If they lose next year in the first round - while being healthy - so be it. I do not think this team gets better without Marner. He's overpaid versus his comparables, but he still provides surplus value over his contract - just less than Braydon Point/others. That doesn't mean they're going to be able to move him and obtain >Marner's value for 10.9M.

I get why people are frustrated and have no issue with people wanting to move Marner/not believing in the setup. I'd give them another year. Last year everyone said Willy couldn't play in the playoffs - then he was their best player.

You're saying Marner provides value beyond his contract???? I don't think this is true even in the regular season and for the last 3 seasons, it's nowhere close to being true in the playoffs.

Fair point about Nylander. Then again, say Marner plays well in the next playoffs, does that mean that despite failing for three years previous, he is someone we can count on to play his best in the playoffs going forward? I don't think it is myself, I think Marner would have to excel for at least 2-3 years in the playoffs before I trust him again and after 3 years of suckage, I don't see that moving on him would be as big a risk as some people are making it out to be.

 

[4thline]

Maybe Jersey and Buffalo were so much worse point-wise is because they had to play a stronger group of teams all year long? It's the same 6 or 7 teams that everybody played all year, the point totals are going to be different across all divisions.

Seems extremely arrogant and condescending to intentionally not take things like that into consideration while presenting something subjective like a cold-hard fact.

I don't think that you understand my post. I don't believe that either of the examples were cold hard facts. I presented them as "facts" to point out the folly in using aggregated standings to compare across divisions, because both are "true" (if you trust the standings), but also lead to contradictory conclusions about division strength.

 

[IPS]

Most all the cup winners under the cap had a high concentration of elite talent with a high concentration of cap%

Well Tampa happens to have a world-class D and goalie as part of their high concentration of cap%.

 

[GoLeafsGo96]

You're saying Marner provides value beyond his contract???? I don't think this is true even in the regular season and for the last 3 seasons, it's nowhere close to being true in the playoffs.

Fair point about Nylander. Then again, say Marner plays well in the next playoffs, does that mean that despite failing for three years previous, he is someone we can count on to play his best in the playoffs going forward? I don't think it is myself, I think Marner would have to excel for at least 2-3 years in the playoffs before I trust him again and after 3 years of suckage, I don't see that moving on him would be as big a risk as some people are making it out to be.

My take is that all stars in the league are actually underpaid versus the value they provide. There is a market within the market - that limits that surplus value Marner brings relative to what another star brings their team because of those comparables. Not everyone has to agree with that of course.

I think if he succeeds next year in the playoffs it speaks to the point i've previously made about randomness within the sport honestly - and youth. Nylander was considered by so many people to be bad in the playoffs and now hes not considered bad in the playoffs. I don't think much changed with him (some maturity for sure, but i don't think its lightyears different), his style of play, he just seemingly got better results.

People really think they've been absolutely awful in the playoffs - the core 4 that is. Maybe i'm just way too optimistic, but given they were a goal away every year that they've been so awful - i find it hard to believe this core, if they do get hot, can't go on a run. Will they win? Maybe not - but I don't think they have a better chance replacing Marner honestly.

 

[IPS]

I don't think that you understand my post. I don't believe that either of the examples were cold hard facts. I presented them as "facts" to point out the folly in using aggregated standings to compare across divisions, because both are "true" (if you trust the standings), but also lead to contradictory conclusions about division strength.

Sorry I can't crack your own little special code while your reading your posts then I guess.

 

[4thline]

Sorry I can't crack your own little special code while your reading your posts then I guess.

English?

I'm glad you agree with the point though. League wide standings from this past year are useless for assessing division quality.

 

[IPS]

English?

I'm glad you agree with the point though. League wide standings from this past year are useless for assessing division quality.

No I don't agree with it.

In regards to something like this:

If you accept that by the "standings" Ottawa and Vancouver were a significantly better bottom pair than Buffalo/Jersey, than you accept that point totals of other North division teams were deflated relative to the East because they didn't have doormats to beat up on.

I can easily turn this around and assert that the upper-end of the North Division just wasn't good enough to beat up on their doormats the way other divisions could.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

Tampa is... really good. Nobody is close to them IMO and I don't think anyone is going to get close to them. They did a tremendous job of getting a group to buy in for cheap, while supplementing them with incredible talent through the draft (Point, Cirelli). I don't think the Leafs should trade Marner because Tampa was able to win without Stamkos - because I don't think trading Marner gets this team any closer to Tampa - personally.

I think people overrate last year's team that lost to Columbus. They were an 8th seed - playing Ceci and Barrie significant minutes. I genuinely think the D is way better now, and this years team was significantly better because of their defensive play.

Vegas lost to MTL in 6 games, playing them worse than Toronto did. They didn't have... Chandler Stephenson (who i like as a player a lot actually, but hes not Tavares). Its not an excuse for losing - but I just don't think trading Marner makes the team better. They need to get young ELC guys to contribute playing bigger roles - and they haven't had that because outside of the big guys they drafted like shit with Mark Hunter. Hopefully Robertson and Sandin are big contributors next year honestly.

I’m literally impressed by the amount of excuses you just typed.

I’m excited to see what further excuses you come up with if we lose again in the first round next year.

 

[GoLeafsGo96]

I’m literally impressed by the amount of excuses you just typed.

I’m excited to see what further excuses you come up with if we lose again in the first round next year.

That's fine. I'm excited to watch people act like they never stopped believing in Marner/the core when they finally go on a run.

 

[4thline]

No I don't agree with it.

In regards to something like this:

I can easily turn this around and assert that the upper-end of the North Division just wasn't good enough to beat up on their doormats the way other divisions could.

Sure you could, it's a valid stance.

But it also implies that by extension Ott/Van are worse than their point totals and no better than Buff/Det, again proving that the "standings" aren't a viable way to compare between the divisions. Either interpretation could be true (hence why I included both in my original post). It all comes down to opinion.

 

[IPS]

That's fine. I'm excited to watch people act like they never stopped believing in Marner/the core when they finally go on a run.

If it happens I will gladly eat that crow.

 

[4thline]

In response to the actual thread- not particularly attached, but would prefer to see them liquidated in a big splash rather than walk if that's the way things are going to go. Tavares+Nylander + trade haul + UFA money is a fine group to build around if M&M don't deliver in the playoffs.

 

[Gary Nylund]

My take is that all stars in the league are actually underpaid versus the value they provide. There is a market within the market - that limits that surplus value Marner brings relative to what another star brings their team because of those comparables. Not everyone has to agree with that of course.

I think if he succeeds next year in the playoffs it speaks to the point i've previously made about randomness within the sport honestly - and youth. Nylander was considered by so many people to be bad in the playoffs and now hes not considered bad in the playoffs. I don't think much changed with him (some maturity for sure, but i don't think its lightyears different), his style of play, he just seemingly got better results.

People really think they've been absolutely awful in the playoffs - the core 4 that is. Maybe i'm just way too optimistic, but given they were a goal away every year that they've been so awful - i find it hard to believe this core, if they do get hot, can't go on a run. Will they win? Maybe not - but I don't think they have a better chance replacing Marner honestly.

Value of stars is a whole other subject of discussion, I'll just leave it at that for now. But as far as playoff production in relation to cap hit, I think I'd have to look pretty hard to find a star who's provided as little bang for the buck as Marner has since his contract kicked in.

Considering that we've been been completely crushed in every series deciding game for the last four seasons, I don't agree that we've been "a goal away every year". I'd even go so far as to say that that is a gross distortion of the facts.

English?

I'm glad you agree with the point though. League wide standings from this past year are useless for assessing division quality.

I agree. The previous years standings would be a much better starting point and based on that, one division was clearly the strongest and the other three were pretty close to each other. In terms of path to the final 4 though, we clearly had MUCH easier path than any other team in the league which why these playoffs were such an embarrassment and a golden opportunity wasted

 

[Gary Nylund]

In response to the actual thread- not particularly attached, but would prefer to see them liquidated in a big splash rather than walk if that's the way things are going to go. Tavares+Nylander + trade haul + UFA money is a fine group to build around if M&M don't deliver in the playoffs.

I've said before that my play would be to trade Marner, then have a talk with Matthews and find out if he wants to be here long term and if the answer isn't an enthusiastic yes then trade him as well.

As a plan B, I'd be fine with trading them both. I know many people will laugh at the idea of trading a player as talented as Matthews blah blah blah and you'll never win that trade blah blah blah but I'd just remind myself that Quebec won the Lindros trade back in the day and that this situation would be at least somewhat similar, put him on the market and watch the offers roll in.

 

[Aashir]

I wish Leafs can win a cup or two and then have to deal with "shedding 2-4 roster players"

it is amazing how you keep supporting the incompetence that is dubas and co

Lol I’d shed the whole roster for a cup or two. I like the players sure, but it’s cuz they play for the leafs that I like them. If I had to chose between them for a cup, it’s no contest as to who I’m picking

 

[todd05]

I have more faith in these four then i do in dubass. He has not learned from his mistakes.
Defense is way to small and soft.

 

[Aashir]

I've said before that my play would be to trade Marner, then have a talk with Matthews and find out if he wants to be here long term and if the answer isn't an enthusiastic yes then trade him as well.

As a plan B, I'd be fine with trading them both. I know many people will laugh at the idea of trading a player as talented as Matthews blah blah blah and you'll never win that trade blah blah blah but I'd just remind myself that Quebec won the Lindros trade back in the day and that this situation would be at least somewhat similar, put him on the market and watch the offers roll in.

We can’t lose Matthews for nothing like Tavares good the islanders. There isn’t a Barry trotz and Lou lamlouello to save us. I’d try and trade Matthews before his last year when his NTC kicks in, so basically next year I’d do it if he doesn’t fully want to be here on a reasonable contract(no asking for 20% of the cap).

Dubas’s priority as long as he is here needs to be asset management and maximizing those assets. He needs to get the best value from, signings, trades, drafts. We are lacking in ELC’s. Finally have 3 guys coming through. An example of asset management would be knowing if we bring bogosian back, that we won’t need a #7, as Liljegren and Bogosian would already be alternating. Dubas needs to have more muzzin type trades, rather than kadri or even kapanen. Kadri trade was lost, kapanen was for pure futures due to circumstances. He needs to get the most value out of every transaction he makes, as we have a very limited amount of Cap space left. He doesn’t have time or space for old man Thornton anymore

If this sounds unfair, then too bad. It’s dubas’s fault we are in this mess, so it’s his to try and get out of.

 

[yubbers]

That's fine. I'm excited to watch people act like they never stopped believing in Marner/the core when they finally go on a run.

Hahaha. Remind me what the definition of insanity is again?

 

[4thline]

I've said before that my play would be to trade Marner, then have a talk with Matthews and find out if he wants to be here long term and if the answer isn't an enthusiastic yes then trade him as well.

As a plan B, I'd be fine with trading them both. I know many people will laugh at the idea of trading a player as talented as Matthews blah blah blah and you'll never win that trade blah blah blah but I'd just remind myself that Quebec won the Lindros trade back in the day and that this situation would be at least somewhat similar, put him on the market and watch the offers roll in.

I'm torn. One side of me says "Matthews was engaged and playing hard, if he does that again but anti-miraculously shoots 2% again, who would bet on it happening a 3rd time, he's due to explode", other side says, "lemon, failed era, he needs a change of scenery and it's not going to work here"

In any case, if a new gm is making wholesale changes next season it's from an enviable place.

 

[rumman]

I'm torn. One side of me says "Matthews was engaged and playing hard, if he does that again but anti-miraculously shoots 2% again, who would bet on it happening a 3rd time, he's due to explode", other side says, "lemon, failed era, he needs a change of scenery and it's not going to work here"

In any case, if a new gm is making wholesale changes next season it's from an enviable place.

this is key, no way I want Dubas trading anyone of value, I can wait for a more competent GM to try to fix this , and yes I'd be onboard with trading anyone/everyone. I get a real bad vibe that these guys don't give a f**k about anything but themselves. Too bad because they got talent in spades............

 

[4thline]

this is key, no way I want Dubas trading anyone of value, I can wait for a more competent GM to try to fix this , and yes I'd be onboard with trading anyone/everyone. I get a real bad vibe that these guys don't give a f**k about anything but themselves. Too bad because they got talent in spades............

I'm fine with Dubas making the changes, if he falls it'll be losing an understandable bet on the two franchise players he inherited. But I think taking that bet forward this season makes him the fall guy for Shanny and the board, and it will be "fresh blood" brought in with a "clean slate" so that everyone can distance themselves from the inevitable shitstorm that comes as the kids continue being perennial allstars

 

[egd27]

We can’t lose Matthews for nothing like Tavares good the islanders. There isn’t a Barry trotz and Lou lamlouello to save us.

There would be someone to try and save us because the current management would be gone if they lose Matthews for nothing.

 

[usernamezrhardtodo]

I've said it before, he players themselves have called the team out - Muzzin, Rielly, Andersen.... and management has too but yet tries to bring in cheap vets to provide what the core lacks.

The problem isn't so much that the big 4 aren't trying. They are. But they want to win their way which requires a different type of effort than the traditional way. They don't want to get their nose bloodied it seems. That is going to be a problem until everyone (Management Included) gets on the same page and stops acting like Skill is the end all-be all for this team. We tried it...it didn't work out...move on to a new way. Only a donkey keeps treading the same path without looking around.

 

[keonsbitterness]

If it happens I will gladly eat that crow.

Has anyone ever eaten crow, or watched someone who has?

 

[PromisedLand]

Shanny and Dubas's messages in the last 2 end of season pressers:

-losing will teach them how to win
-noone is "disposing" of 2 great players (AM, MM) and Shanny - we're going to do it with this core
-need to develop a killer instinct
-need to stand up for eachother
- Shanny - These guys really want to win. They really want to become the team that they're capable of becoming. (2020)
Shanny - I do believe you can develop grit. and "compete level and grit are areas that we might have to help our team a little bit with." (2020)
"We like them and we want to keep them here. They're special players and they're all deeply, deeply committed to winning here in Toronto and it's important for us as a management group to continue to develop them."


So they need help wit compete levels, grit, killer instinct, standing up for eachother but they're deeply deeply committed to winning.

Pretty much. And your last sentence pretty much sums up the hypocrisy of shanny+dubas