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How many games will the Kings have to lose to get the best odds at the #1 pick?

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After the games of 2/21:

Ottawa remains 31st, on pace for 67 points. To fall below them, the 30th-place Kings would need to gain no more than 14 points in their remaining 22 games - translating to a record of 6-14-2.

To make the playoffs, they would have to surpass Minnesota’s projected 83 points... which would require 32 points in 22 games (a record of 15-5-2, a percentage of .727).

If the Kings carry their season long pace up in these final 22 games, we would expect them to get 19 points in that stretch, a record of 9-12-1.
 
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Looks like the race for a lottery pick is among 6 teams. Here are the bottom 6 teams as of this morning.

EDM 59 pts 63 games
NJD 58 pts 64 games
ANA 57 pts 64 games
DET 55 pts 64 games
LAK 53 pts 63 games
OTT 49 pts 63 games

Kings have 4 head to head matchups in that group, 3 versus ANA, 1 versus EDM.

Kings have a total of 19 games remaining, 9 against teams currently in a playoff position and 6 out of the playoffs but not a top 6 contender for a lottery pick.
 
HansH said:
After the games of 2/21:

Ottawa remains 31st, on pace for 67 points. To fall below them, the 30th-place Kings would need to gain no more than 14 points in their remaining 22 games - translating to a record of 6-14-2.

To make the playoffs, they would have to surpass Minnesota’s projected 83 points... which would require 32 points in 22 games (a record of 15-5-2, a percentage of .727).

If the Kings carry their season long pace up in these final 22 games, we would expect them to get 19 points in that stretch, a record of 9-12-1.
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wait, 8th place is projected at 83 points? when was the last time a team made the playoffs with only 83 points?

just checked... have to go back to 02-03, the islanders made the playoffs with 83 points. second lowest i saw was the wild with 87 in 14-15.

wow
 
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kilowatt said:
wait, 8th place is projected at 83 points? when was the last time a team made the playoffs with only 83 points?

just checked... have to go back to 02-03, the islanders made the playoffs with 83 points. second lowest i saw was the wild with 87 in 14-15.

wow
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It's back up to 87 points in the West. Which team is projected to get 87 points this year? The Avs, but also the Wild, and the Wild have more ROW's. Dallas is at 88 points. Vegas, 92 points. Nashville is looking at 98 points, the same as the Kings last year.
 
After the games of 3/3/19:

Ottawa maintains a stranglehold on 31st, projecting to 63 points, leaving the Kings leeway to get 6 points in their final 17 games (a record of 2-13-2, a percentage of .176).

Playoffs remain a fantasy, with 89 points needed to claim a wild-card spot. That would require a record of 16-0-1 in the Kings' remaining 17 games. They are not mathematically eliminated - their tragic number sits at 20 points (tragic number = points lost + Minnesota/Dallas points gained that would eliminate the Kings).

The Kings currently project to 29th (ahead of Detroit), and 70.6 points.
 
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HansH said:
After the games of 3/3/19:

Ottawa maintains a stranglehold on 31st, projecting to 63 points, leaving the Kings leeway to get 6 points in their final 17 games (a record of 2-13-2, a percentage of .176).

Playoffs remain a fantasy, with 89 points needed to claim a wild-card spot. That would require a record of 16-0-1 in the Kings' remaining 17 games. They are not mathematically eliminated - their tragic number sits at 20 points (tragic number = points lost + Minnesota/Dallas points gained that would eliminate the Kings).

The Kings currently project to 29th (ahead of Detroit), and 70.6 points.
Click to expand...
The team finishing last the past 8 years has only got the 1 overall pick twice.No worries.
 
HansH said:
After the games of 3/3/19:

Ottawa maintains a stranglehold on 31st, projecting to 63 points, leaving the Kings leeway to get 6 points in their final 17 games (a record of 2-13-2, a percentage of .176).

Playoffs remain a fantasy, with 89 points needed to claim a wild-card spot. That would require a record of 16-0-1 in the Kings' remaining 17 games. They are not mathematically eliminated - their tragic number sits at 20 points (tragic number = points lost + Minnesota/Dallas points gained that would eliminate the Kings).

The Kings currently project to 29th (ahead of Detroit), and 70.6 points.
Click to expand...
Finishing 3rd would be the worst. Might as well trade back and get more assets.
 
HansH said:
After the games of 3/3/19:

Ottawa maintains a stranglehold on 31st, projecting to 63 points, leaving the Kings leeway to get 6 points in their final 17 games (a record of 2-13-2, a percentage of .176).

Playoffs remain a fantasy, with 89 points needed to claim a wild-card spot. That would require a record of 16-0-1 in the Kings' remaining 17 games. They are not mathematically eliminated - their tragic number sits at 20 points (tragic number = points lost + Minnesota/Dallas points gained that would eliminate the Kings).

The Kings currently project to 29th (ahead of Detroit), and 70.6 points.
Click to expand...


Ottawa has ZERO to look forward to for losing. They have every reason to try and spoil the Avs chances for a 1st overall pick. Stupid Sens. Stupid Sakic.
 
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LAKings88 said:
I’m guessing LA goes 5 wins 11 losses the rest of the way.
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They don't have an easy road to even 5 wins. I was looking at the last games and they don't play too many weak teams.

STL
@AZ
@ANA
NASH
FLA
WIN
SJ
ANA
@Cal
@EDM
@Van
CHI
CAL
@AZ
@ANA
LV

I would have said that EDM and ANA would be the most likely wins but both teams are playing better whereas VAN has only 2 wins in their last 10 games, FLA has lost 5 in a row and CHI has lost 4 out of their last 5.

I would think that they take 1 of 3 with ANA and get wins against FLA and CHI at home and perhaps a win against someone they shouldn't beat. I see 4-5 wins in there somewhere. They will need to play very well to beat anyone at this point. It's hard to know what team shows up because they rolled CHI in a day game which is uncharacteristic and then look lifeless until the end against MTL.

I don't see them having a worse record than DET though regardless. I think DET could lose all of their last games. They have a nightmare end to the the season. I think the Kings are going to end up with the 3rd or 4th worst record. If they don't slide down and don't win the lottery then we are probably looking at one of Turcotte, Cozens, Zegras, Krebs or even Boldy most likely.
 
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AzKing said:
They don't have an easy road to even 5 wins. I was looking at the last games and they don't play too many weak teams.

STL
@AZ
@ANA
NASH
FLA
WIN
SJ
ANA
@Cal
@EDM
@Van
CHI
CAL
@AZ
@ANA
LV

I would have said that EDM and ANA would be the most likely wins but both teams are playing better whereas VAN has only 2 wins in their last 10 games, FLA has lost 5 in a row and CHI has lost 4 out of their last 5.

I would think that they take 1 of 3 with ANA and get wins against FLA and CHI at home and perhaps a win against someone they shouldn't beat. I see 4-5 wins in there somewhere. They will need to play very well to beat anyone at this point. It's hard to know what team shows up because they rolled CHI in a day game which is uncharacteristic and then look lifeless until the end against MTL.

I don't see them having a worse record than DET though regardless. I think DET could lose all of their last games. They have a nightmare end to the the season. I think the Kings are going to end up with the 3rd or 4th worst record. If they don't slide down and don't win the lottery then we are probably looking at one of Turcotte, Cozens, Zegras, Krebs or even Boldy most likely.
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Yeah, I think I might be over generous but you never know. I’m hoping their record isn’t any better than 5-11 honestly.
 
Reaper45 said:
Finishing 3rd would be the worst. Might as well trade back and get more assets.
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If we assume they've blackballed Podkolzin, and they value the next tier of players all the same, you'd be right, if they got the 3rd pick and some team desperately wanted Podkolzin, you move back and pick from the next group of Dach, Cozens, Zegras, Boldy, Turcotte, Byram and Krebs (no particular order).
 
Podkolzhin is a hard pass for me. Even if he said he is willing to play immediately in the NHL, there are no consistent full season stats on him. Apparently he had played in different clubs/teams yearly, and his goals per game are all over the place. He is also an average skater and not the most elite skilled guy. His strong attributes are he is a very aggressive and strong forechecker, which fits within our new identity (at least what I perceive it to be). But we strongly need pure skill on our top 6 and should not use the 1st rounder to get a power forward.

I am open to using our later draft picks for Iafallo, Wagner, Gundstrom type guys, but not the top 1st rounder.
 
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Assuming the recent long losing streak was rock bottom, looking at the remaining competition, I think a win/OTL every 5 games is about what I’d expect out of the current roster deployment.
 
Hans,

If you can't get the Kings into 31st place, we're going to have to let you go! Don't worry though you will land on your feet and return next year. :)

 
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