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How many games will the Kings have to lose to get the best odds at the #1 pick?

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LAKings88 said:
Edm, Chi, Arz, Van, and Anh coming up.

Don’t like their odds of going 0-8.
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Me neither. EDM is on the road though. ANA most likely is not going to go 0-4 for the season against us and they have us in their barn. Up until they ran into the CAL buzzsaw, VAN had been playing well and get us at home.

AZ is just bipolar because they were rolling and now have lost 4 in a row but 3 of them were on the road and they get us at home. CHI has also lost 3 in a row after winning 5 straight. LA rolled CHI last time so maybe they will be looking to get payback.

I feel that they will go 2-3 in those games. I am more concerned with staying at #2 than passing CHI. I don't want to see the Kings drop any further than #5 if they whiff on the lottery.
 
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The need to see a pissed off Vancouver that just lost the Ducks at home and then a Blackhawks team that they embarrassed the last time they played them.
 
HansH said:
After the games of 3/26:

Ottawa is on pace for 65 points, meaning the Kings could still slip beneath them for 31st, but they still have to go 0-6 in the final six games.
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If the Kings could go 0-6, then the Sens could also go 6-0...... Nothing is impossible.
 
Detroit plays buffalo tonight and the sens play Florida. Good opportunity for the Kings to try and solidify their lottery odds tonight. Quick has been pretty poor recently, so if he gets the start, I like our chances.
 
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The Kings are fortunate that the Rangers and Sabres are dying so late in the season and had a good amount of points as a cushion because both are only 7 points ahead. Buffalo is another garbage organization that has done nothing even though they have had so many high picks. Between them and Edmonton, it's amazing how neither team has maximized all that opportunity.
 
Most of the times I run this simulation, the Kings (as a 2nd-to-worst team) end up picking between 3rd and 5th. Why does that not seem fair to me?


Tankathon | 2019 NHL Draft Order & Lottery Simulator


Call me crazy, but I believe the bottom 3 teams should each have an equal chance at #1 overall (33.3% chance of winning). Meanwhile, the 2nd worst team in the league shouldn't have to pick 5th overall. How did the draft lottery become so crappy?
 
I didn´t realize how bad the odds would be in the lottery. Finishing 2nd to last only gives about a one in four shot of picking top 2. Most likely gonna pick 4th or 5th.
 
Basilisk said:
Most of the times I run this simulation, the Kings (as a 2nd-to-worst team) end up picking between 3rd and 5th. Why does that not seem fair to me?
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That's the way the system is set up. The second worst team should get the 3rd, 4th, or 5th pick the majority of the time. Just probabilities.

That said, whether that's fair or not is a perfectly good question.
 
BigBrown said:
I didn´t realize how bad the odds would be in the lottery. Finishing 2nd to last only gives about a one in four shot of picking top 2. Most likely gonna pick 4th or 5th.
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The % points are slightly better and all we can do is try to get the best odds possible. With ping pong balls, it's really a crap shoot but being at the 2nd worst record at least keeps us in the Top 5 if they get killed in the lottery.
 
Basilisk said:
Tankathon | 2019 NHL Draft Order & Lottery Simulator


Call me crazy, but I believe the bottom 3 teams should each have an equal chance at #1 overall (33.3% chance of winning). Meanwhile, the 2nd worst team in the league shouldn't have to pick 5th overall. How did the draft lottery become so crappy?
Click to expand...
As it stands the odds of getting the top picks is not great for the worst teams. It would be fairer, in my opinion, to distribute the odds with a stronger tilt for the worst teams.

Say you assign the odds according to the Fibonacci sequence (+1 because the sequence starts with 0):

number of combinations of ping-pong balls according to your record, from 17th to 31st:
1, 2, 2, 3, 4, 6, 9, 14, 22, 35, 56, 90, 145, 234, 378 for a total of 1001 combinations

If you finish last, you have a ~38% chance of picking first
If you finish second to last, you have a ~23% chance of picking first
If you finish third to last, you have a ~15% chance of picking first
If you finish just out of the playoffs at 17th, you have a 0.1% chance of picking first
 
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AzKing said:
A bonus would be for us to win the lottery just to shove it up that loser with no life Avs fan who keeps trolling the forum after our wins to congratulate us.
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Jeez, do we have one of those? That's sad.
 
Basilisk said:
Most of the times I run this simulation, the Kings (as a 2nd-to-worst team) end up picking between 3rd and 5th. Why does that not seem fair to me?


Tankathon | 2019 NHL Draft Order & Lottery Simulator


Call me crazy, but I believe the bottom 3 teams should each have an equal chance at #1 overall (33.3% chance of winning). Meanwhile, the 2nd worst team in the league shouldn't have to pick 5th overall. How did the draft lottery become so crappy?
Click to expand...
I ran this sim 100 times, because, well, what else am I going to do at work?! :P

These were my results:
Kings picked 1st: 11
Kings picked 2nd: 11
Kings picked 3rd: 14
Kings picked 4th: 30
Kings picked 5th: 34

Also of note, the Ducks moved ahead of the Kings in about half of those sims.
 
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Dexter Sinister said:
I ran this sim 100 times, because, well, what else am I going to do at work?! :P

These were my results:
Kings picked 1st: 11
Kings picked 2nd: 11
Kings picked 3rd: 14
Kings picked 4th: 30
Kings picked 5th: 34

Also of note, the Ducks moved ahead of the Kings in about half of those sims.
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You could have just clicked the “Pick Odds” link on the Tankathon page. Pretty much in line with probabilities.
 
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Dexter Sinister said:
I ran this sim 100 times, because, well, what else am I going to do at work?! :P

These were my results:
Kings picked 1st: 11
Kings picked 2nd: 11
Kings picked 3rd: 14
Kings picked 4th: 30
Kings picked 5th: 34

Also of note, the Ducks moved ahead of the Kings in about half of those sims.
Click to expand...


In other words, we'd better prepare ourselves for picking 5th. I hope Cozens is still on the board @ #5. If not, I'd settle for Dach.

#GetWellSoonVilardi!!!
 
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