How many games will the Kings have to lose to get the best odds at the #1 pick?

[HansH]

After the games of 2/2/19:

Ottawa sits in 31st, projecting to 68 points. That puts the Kings' target at no more than 23 points in their remaining 31 games - a record of 10-18-3 and a percentage of .371. (Their current percentage is .431 for the season)

For the playoffs, the Kings would need to beat out Vancouver's projected 85 points. That would take 42 points in the remaining 31 games - a record of 20-9-2 and a percentage of .677.

 

[Brodeur]

Devils sent their best goalie this season (Mackenzie Blackwood) to the AHL. Kings'll probably get Keith Kinkaid tomorrow; Kinkaid oddly has a .970 sv% and two shutouts in 4+ games against the Kings over his career.

 

[Rumpelstiltskin]

Devils sent their best goalie this season (Mackenzie Blackwood) to the AHL. Kings'll probably get Keith Kinkaid tomorrow; Kinkaid oddly has a .970 sv% and two shutouts in 4+ games against the Kings over his career.

 

[HansH]

After the games of 2/4/19:

Ottawa remains on pace for 68 points. The Kings' win in Manhattan thus allows them only 21 points in their final 30 games - a percentage of .350 and a record of 9-18-3.

For the playoffs, the Blues currently project into WC2 with 84 points, meaning the Kings would need 39 points in the final 30 games - a percentage of .650 and a record of 18-9-3.

The black hole looms...

 

[Faterson]

Well, I'm still for the Kings to make the playoffs and then go all the way like in 2012. If there's a sensational way to win the Stanley Cup, it's for the Kings to do it, right?

Has there ever been a Stanley Cup winner who was sitting dead-last in the league standings at Christmas time? I don't think so. Let the Kings win their third cup, and then they can immediately launch their retool/rebuild, whatever.

I've been following the NHL for many years but I don't recall standings as absurd as they are right now in the Western Conference. It's early February and basically all the western teams including the Kings still have a shot at making the play-offs.

I follow it by "Losses Permitted", based on calculations provided by HansH in this thread. So, starting from today, Kings have 9 Losses Permitted for the rest of this season. That's it. And they can do it!

 

[Axl Rhoadz]

Well, I'm still for the Kings to make the playoffs and then go all the way like in 2012. If there's a sensational way to win the Stanley Cup, it's for the Kings to do it, right?

Has there ever been a Stanley Cup winner who was sitting dead-last in the league standings at Christmas time? I don't think so. Let the Kings win their third cup, and then they can immediately launch their retool/rebuild, whatever.

I've been following the NHL for many years but I don't recall standings as absurd as they are right now in the Western Conference. It's early February and basically all the western teams including the Kings still have a shot at making the play-offs.

I follow it by "Losses Permitted", based on calculations provided by HansH in this thread. So, starting from today, Kings have 9 Losses Permitted for the rest of this season. That's it. And they can do it!

Thank you, Luc Robitaille.

 

[AzKing]

Well, I'm still for the Kings to make the playoffs and then go all the way like in 2012. If there's a sensational way to win the Stanley Cup, it's for the Kings to do it, right?

Has there ever been a Stanley Cup winner who was sitting dead-last in the league standings at Christmas time? I don't think so. Let the Kings win their third cup, and then they can immediately launch their retool/rebuild, whatever.

I've been following the NHL for many years but I don't recall standings as absurd as they are right now in the Western Conference. It's early February and basically all the western teams including the Kings still have a shot at making the play-offs.

I follow it by "Losses Permitted", based on calculations provided by HansH in this thread. So, starting from today, Kings have 9 Losses Permitted for the rest of this season. That's it. And they can do it!

The Kings have no shot at the playoffs. They are a bad team. Don't let two wins over a struggling team like NYR and an equally bad team in NJD make you think that the Kings are getting better. The upcoming February schedule could see them win maybe 2 games.

 

[Reaper45]

Our luck they're going to pick 10th in the draft

 

[Faterson]

Don't let two wins over a struggling team like NYR and an equally bad team in NJD make you think that the Kings are getting better.

Don't let a loss against the division leader Islanders make you think the Kings are incapable of winning 2 out of 3 games from now onwards. That was a lucky win for the Islanders and the Kings' own foolishness cost them the win in that one.

29 games left, 9 losses permitted. That's tough, but not in the realm of the impossible. If the Flyers can win 8 games in a row, why not the Kings?

And long winning streaks likely aren't necessary in this season's abysmal Western Conference. Winning 2 out of 3 games from now onwards might do it.

I mostly worry about 3-point games. If there are lots of them among teams in the play-off hunt, the above calculations might not hold.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

I don't want us to make the playoffs, so we obviously will.

 

[KINGS17]

Thank you, Luc Robitaille.

Stacia helped him with this.

 

[ru4reals]

Haven't even payed attention to the standings assuming we are waaaaay out of it, but am I seeing this right we are only 6 points away from a spot at the Playoffs. LMAO. Okay yeah we have to jump like a million teams but this is hilarious. The west is that bad?

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

Haven't even payed attention to the standings assuming we are waaaaay out of it, but am I seeing this right we are only 6 points away from a spot at the Playoffs. LMAO. Okay yeah we have to jump like a million teams but this is hilarious. The west is that bad?

It's that bad.

We're playing mediocre hockey now but there are some teams--like Colorado and Anaheim--in freefall. Minnesota and Van are hurting, and even Vegas is looking mortal. STL has their act together. All it would take at this point is a winning streak or a good month and we'd be out of the lottery and in a WC spot. It's disgusting.

 

[Basilisk]

Stupid Toffoli and Kempe need to go back to sleep so we can get The Hughes!!!

 

[AzKing]

Stupid Toffoli and Kempe need to go back to sleep so we can get The Hughes!!!

I don't know, beating NYR, NJD and the Flyers with their backup goalie in and Hart sitting is a tough sample size. I think the way they play against Boston and Washington will be a good test.

 

[Pandaman11]

What I'm most concerned about right now is the Ducks. I always knew they'd miss the playoffs (for us too, btw), but I didn't think they'd be a Hughes candidate. We need Gibson standing on his head and Carlyle out.

 

[AzKing]

What I'm most concerned about right now is the Ducks. I always knew they'd miss the playoffs (for us too, btw), but I didn't think they'd be a Hughes candidate. We need Gibson standing on his head and Carlyle out.

Teams like Anaheim with their talent don't just keep cratering for the most part and even if the Ducks trade a few guys, they have players who aren't going to subscribe to a tank and this is just a mental thing. They needed to fire their coach. Usually, when teams do that, they turn it around.

 

[HansH]

We need Gibson standing on his head and Carlyle out.

Carlyle got fired today, their GM is stepping in as head coach. Gibson is banged up, I think - they’ve had Boyle up from the Gulls this weekend. Don’t look now, but the Ducks are now last in the West (same points as LA with 1 more GP). Both sit six points out of WC2, and four points ahead of Ottawa in 31st... it’s the very definition of the black hole...

 

[kingsfan28]

Carlyle got fired today, their GM is stepping in as head coach. Gibson is banged up, I think - they’ve had Boyle up from the Gulls this weekend. Don’t look now, but the Ducks are now last in the West (same points as LA with 1 more GP). Both sit six points out of WC2, and four points ahead of Ottawa in 31st... it’s the very definition of the black hole...

The Ducks rode Gibson the first 20 games of the season and banked a lot of points, but all he did was hide a bad team. Saving 40 plus a night can only go so far and eventually it caught up with them around game 40. Gibson was bad before the All-Star game and been bad since and was the only thing keeping them in a playoff race.

 

[tomd]

Teams like Anaheim with their talent don't just keep cratering for the most part and even if the Ducks trade a few guys, they have players who aren't going to subscribe to a tank and this is just a mental thing. They needed to fire their coach. Usually, when teams do that, they turn it around.

I'd argue that the Ducks have less talent on their roster right now than the Kings do. Look at the respective rosters for both teams in the games they played yesterday...hard to make a case that it's just a "mental" thing. They just aren't very good and I don't see them making a 180 just because Carlyle is gone.

 

[HansH]

After the games of 2/11/19:

Ottawa retains the "lead" for 31st, on pace for 70 points. To fall below that pace, the Kings could only acquire 18 points in their remaining 26 games - a percentage of .346, or a record of 8-16-2.

If the goal were the playoffs, the Kings would need to overtake Minnesota's 86-point pace. That would require 36 points in the remaining 26 games, which translates to a record of 17-7-2 and a perentage of .692.

Current paces would put the Kings in 27th place, finishing with about 74.7 points, ahead of Ottawa (70 pts), Detroit (72 pts), New Jersey (74.6 pts), and Anaheim (also 74.7 points, but losing the ROW tiebreaker to the Kings, currently 21-18).

 

[King'sPawn]

Thank you for all your work, Hans!

 

[KINGS17]

After the games of 2/11/19:

Ottawa retains the "lead" for 31st, on pace for 70 points. To fall below that pace, the Kings could only acquire 18 points in their remaining 26 games - a percentage of .346, or a record of 8-16-2.

If the goal were the playoffs, the Kings would need to overtake Minnesota's 86-point pace. That would require 36 points in the remaining 26 games, which translates to a record of 17-7-2 and a perentage of .692.

Current paces would put the Kings in 27th place, finishing with about 74.7 points, ahead of Ottawa (70 pts), Detroit (72 pts), New Jersey (74.6 pts), and Anaheim (also 74.7 points, but losing the ROW tiebreaker to the Kings, currently 21-18).

Here we go again.

 

[AzKing]

Here we go again.

This year feels less like a Black Hole if you don't draft in the top 3. I think that that Kings will get a solid player anywhere in the Top 10. When I think of "Solid," it will be a top 6 good talent. Whether they develop that talent is always the next question but these guys all don't really have holes in their game that lead me to think that they will not be impact guys:

Hughes
Kakko
Podkolzin
Cozens
Dach
Byram
Boldy
Turcotte
Krebs
Zegras

 

[BallPointHammer]

The Black Hole can not control ping pong balls, they are too small, light and smooth. The Kings will probably not end up 31st but we still have a shot at 1st or 2nd or 3rd pick. Optimism my friends. This season has been too screwy for the Kings to not get Hughes or Kakko.