Honest question....

[Larcos_Unal]

Marner is arguably our most valuable forward.

1. Key on the PP, key on PK
2. Fixer for any C who is struggling
3. 1st team RW consecutive years
4. Has come a long way with his shot, to the point where 30 goals are his baseline
5. No question on effort & PASSION

Willie is insanely talented but he's 26 and is still, by his own admission, struggling to find his game at times. If they lose in the 1st round the core needs a change, we've already gutted the bottom 6 and the results are the same.

Willie is the guy that will get you a massive package of futures along with cap space to address D and bottom 6 holes.

 

[Americanadian]

I don’t think it was just the fact that he asked for more. It was they had the depth to let him go. Losing him didn’t really affect their defensive core that much more

They didn't have the depth to cover him. They just signed TDA for league minimum to replace him. They are the best analytics run organization. They force fed TDA PP minutes and insulated him with Slavin and then flipped him for a 2nd, 3rd, 4th.

Hamilton is a nice player but not close to the same tier as Matthews or Marner.
No player of that quality has been told to leave.

Arguably Pietrangelo.

 

[ACC1224]

Arguably Pietrangelo.

Good call, forgot about him.

 

[Menzinger]

Not to beat a dead horse, but don't get too fixated on player aav. Cap% of contracts is what ultimately matters. A decade ago the cap was only like 60ish million, so obviously contracts looked a lot cheaper

This is absolutely the correct path forward. Some people are so blinded by high end talent that they forget the Leafs won just as many playoff rounds in the Phaneuf/Kessel as they did in the big 4 era.

I'd say the odds of the MLSE board approving another build through the draft rebuild at about 0%. What'll happen is whomever is GM (Dubas', or someone else).will be mandated to trade a couple core players for new core to try and start winning now.

 

[Americanadian]

I'd say the odds of the MLSE board approving another build through the draft rebuild at about 0%. What'll happen is whomever is GM (Dubas', or someone else).will be mandated to trade a couple core players for new core to try and start winning now.

I'm not trying to say full rebuild. I don't want that either. I'd aim for win now pieces that are younger. That's what Florida did in the Tkachuk trade. The trade I have proposed in the trade board is Matthews for Byfield, Clarke, Iafallo, Roy. Leafs get two 20 year olds players that can be top of the lineup players in the next 2-3 years and they grab two roster players (for cap purposes) who can be above average in their position. You then run out (assuming Leafs re-sign all of Bunting/ROR/Acciari:

Bunting-Tavares-Marner
Iafallo-Byfield-Nylander
Knies-ROR-Jarnkrok
X-Acciari-Lafferty

I'd even take it 1 step further and send out Nylander to VAN for their 2023 1st (currently 8th), Garland and Myers. Vancouver wants to clear cap and appease Pettersson so he signs long term. This theoretically accomplishes both while getting the Leafs a top 6 winger (although divisive) in Garland and a top 10 pick in what has been hailed as the deepest draft since 2015. Myers expires in a year.

I'd only do the Nylander trade if the Leafs did the Matthews trade. Both trades come out cap neutral while netting the Leafs future assets (Clarke, 8th OA, Byfield) and current assets (Roy, Garland, Iafallo). Myers is just a cap throw in that the Leafs would eat in this scenario.

 

[Dekes For Days]

I'm not trying to say full rebuild. I don't want that either. I'd aim for win now pieces that are younger. That's what Florida did in the Tkachuk trade. The trade I have proposed in the trade board is Matthews for Byfield, Clarke, Iafallo, Roy. Leafs get two 20 year olds players that can be top of the lineup players in the next 2-3 years and they grab two roster players (for cap purposes) who can be above average in their position. You then run out (assuming Leafs re-sign all of Bunting/ROR/Acciari:

Bunting-Tavares-Marner
Iafallo-Byfield-Nylander
Knies-ROR-Jarnkrok
X-Acciari-Lafferty

I'd even take it 1 step further and send out Nylander to VAN for their 2023 1st (currently 8th), Garland and Myers. Vancouver wants to clear cap and appease Pettersson so he signs long term. This theoretically accomplishes both while getting the Leafs a top 6 winger (although divisive) in Garland and a top 10 pick in what has been hailed as the deepest draft since 2015. Myers expires in a year.

I'd only do the Nylander trade if the Leafs did the Matthews trade. Both trades come out cap neutral while netting the Leafs future assets (Clarke, 8th OA, Byfield) and current assets (Roy, Garland, Iafallo). Myers is just a cap throw in that the Leafs would eat in this scenario.

That makes us a worse team and puts the franchise's future into the hands of hoping for young players/prospects to develop into something they haven't shown. Which, even if they do, wouldn't be on the timeline where we'd have the likes of Tavares/O'Rielly performing at high levels.

 

[Americanadian]

That makes us a worse team and puts the franchise's future into the hands of hoping for young players/prospects to develop into something they haven't shown. Which, even if they do, wouldn't be on the timeline where we'd have the likes of Tavares/O'Rielly performing at high levels.

You basically do what Florida did and you take a step back for one season. Once the cap open up from Myers/Brodie/Murray/Roy/Tavares (roughly 21M assuming you re-sign Brodie/Tavares for 9M total) you go into 2024-25 with Byfield having another year of development, Clarke a full time NHLer, and potentially the 8th OA pick cracking the team AND you have enough cap space to make an impact add whether that be in UFA, or trade. Even next season that lineup with both trades is still projected as a playoff team. I have the 23-24 lineup below projected at 108 points with Murray and 104 points with Woll as the backup (too low of a sample to make a projection). This assumes Myers is sent to the AHL or 8th D.

2023-24

Bunting-Tavares-Marner
Iafallo-Byfield-Garland
Knies-ROR-Jarnkrok
Holmberg-Acciari-Lafferty

Rielly-Brodie
McCabe-Roy
Gio-Lily
Timmins

Samsonov
Murray

24-25

Bunting-Byfield-Marner
Knies-Tavares-Garland
8th OA-ROR-Jarnkrok
Holmberg-Acciari-Iafallo

Rielly-Liljegren
McCabe-Clarke
Brodie-Timmins

Samsonov
Woll

At the end of the day if the Leafs sign all of Nylander/Matthews/Marner to bloated contracts they are going to be taking up a huge chunk of salary going into their 30s instead of their mid 20s like their current contracts. Having them take up north of 40% of the cap as they decline probably isn't a winning formula, nor has the current formula had success.

 

[IPS]

Marner is arguably our most valuable forward.

1. Key on the PP, key on PK
2. Fixer for any C who is struggling
3. 1st team RW consecutive years
4. Has come a long way with his shot, to the point where 30 goals are his baseline
5. No question on effort & PASSION

Willie is insanely talented but he's 26 and is still, by his own admission, struggling to find his game at times. If they lose in the 1st round the core needs a change, we've already gutted the bottom 6 and the results are the same.

Willie is the guy that will get you a massive package of futures along with cap space to address D and bottom 6 holes.

Losing Willy would hurt the team immensely. This is what Matthews is going to have to take into consideration when they start negotiating with him in the near future. If we can't re-sign Willy because Matthews is demanding some outrageous bullshit then you really have to consider making some big moves. I'm already betting 100% there's going to be some teams with "league maximum offers" they want to throw Matthews' way that our media will be providing 24/7 on the minute coverage on.

 

[Morbo]

if you're the new GM you keep 34/16 to build around. in this circumstance some of the other expensive players would need to change though.

 

[Americanadian]

That makes us a worse team and puts the franchise's future into the hands of hoping for young players/prospects to develop into something they haven't shown.

I didn't touch on the prospects part of your post (sorry). Byfield has been playing on the top line (top competition!) in LA for a month now and has scored 9 points in his last 10. He is far from a sure thing but he has been promising. His underlying numbers are strong as well (27th among F in GAR/60 - minimum 200 mins).

Clarke has been tearing apart the OHL. He is putting up a significantly higher NHLe than Makar was at the same age (52 for Clarke, 39 for Makar). He also isn't a sure thing but his numbers are hard to ignore.

 

[Leafs87]

In all honesty we can afford all 3. The first year with Tavares on the books for 11 will be difficult but after that it’ll be fine. If they demand crazy money and we have to sacrifice depth again for the duration of their contracts, getting assets for Willy makes the most sense

 

[Dekes For Days]

You basically do what Florida did and you take a step back for one season.

That's not taking a step backwards for one season. That's taking a significant step backwards for the foreseeable future, and potentially until another full-on rebuild unless Byfield/Clarke/unspecified prospect turns into things that none of them have shown to be.

That's very, very different from what Florida did. Florida exchanged a very flawed player entering his post-prime for another top-tier NHLer in his prime. They did not trade the reigning MVP in his prime for prospects and young players that are struggling to establish themselves in the NHL. Florida's not exactly excelling after that trade anyway, so weird thing to point to.

At the end of the day if the Leafs sign all of Nylander/Matthews/Marner to bloated contracts they are going to be taking up a huge chunk of salary going into their 30s instead of their mid 20s like their current contracts. Having them take up north of 40% of the cap as they decline probably isn't a winning formula, nor has the current formula had success.

At the end of the day, if the Leafs sign all of Matthews/Marner/Nylander to reasonable contracts that you'll incorrectly call bloated, they'll continue to be contenders for the foreseeable future instead of destroying their team for no reason. None of them are starting any kind of serious decline soon, and this formula has shown to work to produce top-tier teams. You don't abandon it when you're finally going to get a rising cap and internal depth coming through.

I didn't touch on the prospects part of your post (sorry). Byfield has been playing on the top line (top competition!) in LA for a month now and has scored 9 points in his last 10. He is far from a sure thing but he has been promising. His underlying numbers are strong as well (27th among F in GAR/60 - minimum 200 mins).

Clarke has been tearing apart the OHL. He is putting up a significantly higher NHLe than Makar was at the same age (52 for Clarke, 39 for Makar). He also isn't a sure thing but his numbers are hard to ignore.

Byfield is a 3rd liner playing at a 6 goal, 40-point pace, at an age when Matthews was already a superstar. You don't trade the reigning MVP for somebody with an alright 10 game stretch.
Clarke is having a good short season in the OHL as a 20 year old, but that's the OHL, not the NHL, where again, Matthews was a superstar at that age.
They are good prospects, but they are likely not going to become anything remotely close to Matthews, even if they become NHLers.
And they don't really fit the timeline you're creating around Tavares and O'Rielly.

 

[Americanadian]

That's not taking a step backwards for one season. That's taking a significant step backwards for the foreseeable future, and potentially until another full-on rebuild unless Byfield/Clarke/unspecified prospect turns into things that none of them have shown to be.

Byfield/Clarke are 20 years old. They are both doing relatively well. I touched on that in a separate post you may have missed.

That's very, very different from what Florida did. Florida exchanged a very flawed player entering his post-prime for another top-tier NHLer in his prime. They did not trade the reigning MVP in his prime for prospects and young players that are struggling to establish themselves in the NHL. Florida's not exactly excelling after that trade anyway, so weird thing to point to.

You seemed to also miss that I said Florida took a step back this year so they can take a step forward next season with more cap space. You forgot that they traded Weegar too. A trade that did make them worse in the short term but once they can spend the money they saved they will be a better team.

At the end of the day, if the Leafs sign all of Matthews/Marner/Nylander to reasonable contracts that you'll incorrectly call bloated, they'll continue to be contenders for the foreseeable future instead of destroying their team for no reason. None of them are starting any kind of serious decline soon, and this formula has shown to work to produce top-tier teams. You don't abandon it when you're finally going to get a rising cap and internal depth coming through.

If you want to continue to watch the same players go out there and lose then you bring it all back.

What internal depth is going to realistically change things? Knies is the only hope at an impact NHLer. Woll might be a starter but he that's realistically 2 years out.

 

[saltming]

So how much more is Marner worth than Tkachuk ? Is the Pasta deal not fair ?

Keep both and trade the coach

 

[Dekes For Days]

Byfield/Clarke are 20 years old. They are both doing relatively well.

They are both doing well relative to your average prospect. They are not doing well enough to come close to replacing Matthews.
It's taking the Leaf's sure future and turning it into hopes and dreams.

You seemed to also miss that I said Florida took a step back this year so they can take a step forward next season with more cap space. You forgot that they traded Weegar too. A trade that did make them worse in the short term but once they can spend the money they saved they will be a better team.

We don't know if they will take a step forward next year. Either way, entirely different kind of trade, and still not a good result so far.

If you want to continue to watch the same players go out there and lose then you bring it all back.

I want to continue to watch my team go out and win, and contend for a Stanley Cup, and keeping our best players gives us the best chance of doing that, especially over relying entirely on a couple 20-year old prospects exploding into superstars.

What internal depth is going to realistically change things? Knies is the only hope at an impact NHLer.

Not only is that not true, but when you don't foolishly trade away your reigning MVP, you don't need your prospect pool to be full of impact NHLers. You need cheap, quality depth, and our prospect pool is in drastically better shape than it was 5 years ago. Add in a rising cap and you're in a much better position.

 

[34]

Both will be gone if the Leafs get turfed in the first round Again. Let Tavares walk for nothing. Rebuild begins.

 

[ULF_55]

At the end of the day if the Leafs sign all of Nylander/Matthews/Marner to bloated contracts they are going to be taking up a huge chunk of salary going into their 30s instead of their mid 20s like their current contracts. Having them take up north of 40% of the cap as they decline probably isn't a winning formula, nor has the current formula had success.

Depends on Cap performance. If Cap stays flat, they might be playing Top 6, and Marlies 6 for one year.

Only concern is the year Nylander and Matthews new deals kick in.

Maybe they take their downtime in 2024-2025 season and then retool when Tavares is off the Cap.

 

[Americanadian]

Depends on Cap performance. If Cap stays flat, they might be playing Top 6, and Marlies 6 for one year.

Only concern is the year Nylander and Matthews new deals kick in.

Maybe they take their downtime in 2024-2025 season and then retool when Tavares is off the Cap.

Let's say they get the contracts that are being proposed here of 10/12/14 for Nylander/Marner/Matthews. Those 3 will be making 40% of the cap on a 90M cap (assuming thats the cap for the 24/25 season). Assuming the cap continue growing at 2-3M per years you're looking at 36% of the cap for 3 players at 100M in 27/28 season where Nylander/Marner/Matthews will be 31/30/30. As the cap goes up they will be on the decline.

 

[ULF_55]

Let's say they get the contracts that are being proposed here of 10/12/14 for Nylander/Marner/Matthews. Those 3 will be making 40% of the cap on a 90M cap (assuming thats the cap for the 24/25 season). Assuming the cap continue growing at 2-3M per years you're looking at 36% of the cap for 3 players at 100M in 27/28 season where Nylander/Marner/Matthews will be 31/30/30. As the cap goes up they will be on the decline.

I think Matthews and marner get the same deal, or Matthews takes less years.

I don't see captain material there(Matthews), so marner grows into the role.

Nylander if lucky get double digits, but he may chose to move on anyway.

 

[Leafshater67]

Well hold on, those players got those cheaper deals because they simply were not nearly as good as our players. Matthews scored 40 goals as a rookie, Marner took a season but he broke out his 2nd year where he paced for 90 points after a slow start and never looked back. Then he had a 90 point season on his ELC the next year. Those teams the players didn't break out until well after their ELC ended.

With that said, 0 chance those are the numbers. I personally think Nylander is done in Toronto regardless of what happens this year. Not that I agree with it, but I don't think they can afford him for the reasons you said and prefer to keep MM and AM. Exception would be if one of those guys wants out.

Tavares is not getting 8 at 35. He might get 3-4 on a 2 year term.

And I also don't think those guys are going to get paid like that. Matthews is not worth 14-15. He's just not. Maybe if he was on the open market and bottom feeders were throwing out offers. On top of that, I think the kids had a point where they were already elite, they could get injured or traded after taking a discount.

Both MM and AM are rich now. Both have seen what the team has had to do to fit their cap hits in. Both probably don't think they are overpaid but realize their cap hits have costed them friends leaving and good players leaving.

I think they both take their current contracts or close to it. 11.5 * 8 a piece if I had to guess. With the cap scheduled for a massive jump in the next decade, it won't be long before those are the new 9AAV, it still gives the team an elite first line, and the assets we get back from Nylander and cap space will be used to probably try and re-sign ROR and then fill out some depth. I can see next season being a reset year for the org. Probably why they kept that first

That’s a lot of words to say “I really hope we don’t have to pay top dollar for two guys who pushed for top dollar, one especially”. I also think the fact they demanded contracts to bring them to UFA could get ugly - they can get those numbers on the free market.

Tavares was considered a hometown discount when he signed for 11 instead of 13 elsewhere and that was a few years ago now. Dubas fumbled this so bad. The salary cap structure is the #1 most important thing on a team now

 

[RunItBackAgain]

Babcock, is that you?

 

[Gabriel426]

I know we are all waiting for the playoffs to start and pretty much had nothing to talk about till playoffs.
Honestly, what if they win the Cup this playoffs or go really far like Cup Finals or ECF? Would we still need to trade player X or rebuild, retool....

Can we just save all these Leafs need to rebuild, trade player X....till after the playoffs?

Maybe I should start a thread about What if Leafs win the Cup?

 

[Racer88]

That would be a stupid thing to do.

Depends on the return

 

[FerrisRox]

Honestly, what if they win the Cup this playoffs or go really far like Cup Finals or ECF? Would we still need to trade player X or rebuild, retool....

What kind of question is that?

Why would the Maple Leafs rebuild and retool if they just won the Stanley Cup with this group?

 

[57 Years No Cup]

Dubas will pay for the same performance twice.

When Marner, Matthews, and Nylander were signed, they were all given very player friendly deals. Front loaded and heavy in signing bonuses. And of course, lots and lots of money.

Dubas paid for the future performance of these guys, which to be fair, they have all done admirably well.

Now when it comes time to re-sign these guys, the agents will point to these exact same numbers and say this is why they deserve even more money. Even though their next contracts will be eight years long. Running into their mid-thirties when most players drop off a cliff.

The agents will laugh and tell Dubas "so what, there are 31 other teams willing to pay for this bum".

And Dubas will bend over the barrel once again.

There is nothing in any of these players history that suggests they would be willing to take a "hometown" discount.

If you think the team is tight to the cap this year, just wait until 2024/2025. When Matthews and Nylander's new contracts kick in. Then the team really will be MNMT+R and a bunch of league minimum duds.

The pain will get worse before it gets better.

If they lose in the first or even second round Dubas will be fired and the New GM will have to deal with signing these guys.