Honest question....

[Notsince67]

Coincidentally I am also a professional stats head, data analyst by trade, statistician by education. GSVA isn't a regression model, it appears to be a formula that was more or less created by hand but it's still a publicly used number.

I did say they have been near identical for 5 years in GAR, not 3.

Why would you use something as incomprehensible as GSVA then? It's like trying to explain the mechanics of cold fusion

As for your 5 year number, I had 3 handy but you are bleeding into Marners's ELC performance with that stat. Apples to apples as they say

 

[TMLBlueandWhite]

Dubas will pay for the same performance twice.

When Marner, Matthews, and Nylander were signed, they were all given very player friendly deals. Front loaded and heavy in signing bonuses. And of course, lots and lots of money.

Dubas paid for the future performance of these guys, which to be fair, they have all done admirably well.

Now when it comes time to re-sign these guys, the agents will point to these exact same numbers and say this is why they deserve even more money. Even though their next contracts will be eight years long. Running into their mid-thirties when most players drop off a cliff.

The agents will laugh and tell Dubas "so what, there are 31 other teams willing to pay for this bum".

And Dubas will bend over the barrel once again.

There is nothing in any of these players history that suggests they would be willing to take a "hometown" discount.

If you think the team is tight to the cap this year, just wait until 2024/2025. When Matthews and Nylander's new contracts kick in. Then the team really will be MNMT+R and a bunch of league minimum duds.

The pain will get worse before it gets better.

 

[Americanadian]

Why would you use something as incomprehensible as GSVA then? It's like trying to explain the mechanics of cold fusion

As for your 5 year number, I had 3 handy but you are bleeding into Marners's ELC performance with that stat. Apples to apples as they say

GSVA still measures impact even if it the variables aren't deemed statistically significant. Funny enough I was using GAR to measure the similarity between Pastrnak/Marner in a previous thread on this board and the person I was arguing with insisted on using GSVA because it takes into account QoT/QoC. Now I use both to appease everyone.

 

[Buds17]

Offer Nylander for the #2 overall pick this draft,
and
Marner for Bedard ...if you want to blow it up, blow it up.

Realistically, (except for contract uncertainty) both deal favor the teams getting the Leafs players in the immediate term.

Bedard could be a generational player, but, he's still a 5'9" winger and .i dont know why he keeps getting called a Center by guys like Button etc
Marner 'should' be a 100+ point player this year and is a great 2-way player
Bedard 'could' be as good, or better ...or worse at the NHL level.

I'd say the Bedard Hype is more in line with MacKinnon, not McDavid, and MacKinnon took 5 seasons to 'break out'
Marner's career is 1.096 ppg vs 1.058 ppg for Mac
MacKinnon's advantage is he IS a Center.

Contract uncertainty means practically everything in these examples. Any team able to draft 1st and/or 2nd overall is incredibly unlikely to be concerned with the short term. The risk for the Leafs obviously lies in going from "proven" to "potential" to such a degree.

 

[IPS]

Pastrnak is absolutely Marner's ceiling for his contract.

He plays great 2 way hockey as well, and he's going to put up 100+ points this season, had a 95 point season (was on pace for 110) that year. He actually exceeds Marner's production on some years.

We need to get it in these young players' heads that this is a winning hockey team. We already f***ing paid them UFA money, how much of a raise do they honestly expect?

I agree. M&M are the best players I've seen play for the Leafs in the last 50+ years but if the team never wins in the playoffs, I don't even care. If we have to overpay the stars to keep them, I don't like our chances of winning the cup and I'd be fine with trading them all. Trade M&M and Willie for 10 1st round picks or the equivalent in picks and prospects, tear it all down, tank and start over again. We might spend a few years at the bottom again but it would at least be interesting to watch and dream about what the future might hold. Better than overpaying a bunch of prima donnas who insist on being overpaid and never win anything.

If they fail again in the playoffs and go demanding contracts that are way out of line just like the last time, I'm stripping this whole team down to bare bones yet again.

 

[IPS]

Well look at Kadri. He put up a pace of 100 points last year and signed for 7MM.
It sure isnt 1 year or less than a year.
Stats are about trends and a reasonable estimation of where someone might produce in the future.
Pasta was an 88 pt player (annualized) last year and had only played 61 games when they announced his contract.
Prior to that, he was an 82 pt player (annualized). Before that he had a great season of 111 pts (annualized). Note that Marners Annualized total last year was 110 pts.. This year 105 and trending up), and the prior year of around 100.

These comparables can bite too. Marners number will show that he deserves huge money. The team will rely on the generosity of it's top players to stay afloat. If you insist that they get paid comparables, you will inevitably be paying far more than you want to. If Marner continues the torrid pace of the last 20 games, he will even exceed Pastas points this year...while being a far superior player defensively.

Yeah Pasta actually provides great 2-way play too, and he has had some dandy offensive years in recent years.

Sorry but some of us aren't gonna pretend Marner is the greatest player in the world if he comes in demanding figures he has no business demanding.

 

[Americanadian]

If they fail again in the playoffs and go demanding contracts that are way out of line just like the last time, I'm stripping this whole team down to bare bones yet again.

This is absolutely the correct path forward. Some people are so blinded by high end talent that they forget the Leafs won just as many playoff rounds in the Phaneuf/Kessel as they did in the big 4 era.

 

[Notsince67]

GSVA still measures impact even if it the variables aren't deemed statistically significant. Funny enough I was using GAR to measure the similarity between Pastrnak/Marner in a previous thread on this board and the person I was arguing with insisted on using GSVA because it takes into account QoT/QoC. Now I use both to appease everyone.

I see. I get it. Personally I hate that pseudo metric. Even GAR and SPAR fall short on being predictive of the most important event...wins. Will be happy when models are developed and published using puck tracking data. The fact that they havent released it publicly during the introduction of hockey gambling points to an optimism that there is something there that will be far more predictive.

 

[IPS]

This is absolutely the correct path forward. Some people are so blinded by high end talent that they forget the Leafs won just as many playoff rounds in the Phaneuf/Kessel as they did in the big 4 era.

We actually came closer to winning a playoff series with that horrible Kessel/Phaneuf team than this current team. Atleast that team got the game 7 to OT.

How the f*** are people ok with some of these numbers being purported. We have Gaudreau leading the league in ES scoring signing for 9.75, and a very accurate comparable with Pasta signing for 11.25, and Mackinnon the cup winning elite #1C at 12.5 .

So once again - direct comparable are right there yet here we are having these massive mythical numbers thrown out that our superstars are going to demand. It's just like the last time - I thought the numbers thrown out were a joke until we saw Matthews getting McDavid-level money on a 5 year term.

I can't deal with this shit again, I don't give a f*** how talented they are - if they're demanding unprecedented money again just f***ing get rid of them.

 

[Notsince67]

Yeah Pasta actually provides great 2-way play too, and he has had some dandy offensive years in recent years.

Sorry but some of us aren't gonna pretend Marner is the greatest player in the world if he comes in demanding figures he has no business demanding.

I'm not the one putting up arbitrary numbers 4 years into a 6 year contract. I've really only said more or less

 

[thewave]

Pastrnak is absolutely Marner's ceiling for his contract.

He plays great 2 way hockey as well, and he's going to put up 100+ points this season, had a 95 point season (was on pace for 110) that year. He actually exceeds Marner's production on some years.

We need to get it in these young players' heads that this is a winning hockey team. We already f***ing paid them UFA money, how much of a raise do they honestly expect?


If they fail again in the playoffs and go demanding contracts that are way out of line just like the last time, I'm stripping this whole team down to bare bones yet again.

Quoted simply in support of accuracy, based opinion.

We actually came closer to winning a playoff series with that horrible Kessel/Phaneuf team than this current team. Atleast that team got the game 7 to OT.

How the f*** are people ok with some of these numbers being purported. We have Gaudreau leading the league in ES scoring signing for 9.75, and a very accurate comparable with Pasta signing for 11.25, and Mackinnon the cup winning elite #1C at 12.5 .

So once again - direct comparable are right there yet here we are having these massive mythical numbers thrown out that our superstars are going to demand. It's just like the last time - I thought the numbers thrown out were a joke until we saw Matthews getting McDavid-level money on a 5 year term.

I can't deal with this shit again, I don't give a f*** how talented they are - if they're demanding unprecedented money again just f***ing get rid of them.

And again because I feel the exact same way.

 

[ToneDog]

Quoted simply in support of accuracy, based opinion.

If Marner wants more than Pasta and Matty wants more than MacKinnon, I say let somebody else pay them. You know the old saying, fool me once shame on you, fool me twice, shame on me.

 

[ITM]

This is absolutely the correct path forward. Some people are so blinded by high end talent that they forget the Leafs won just as many playoff rounds in the Phaneuf/Kessel as they did in the big 4 era.

Cold water. Yikes.

 

[Buds17]

This is absolutely the correct path forward. Some people are so blinded by high end talent that they forget the Leafs won just as many playoff rounds in the Phaneuf/Kessel as they did in the big 4 era.

The Phaneuf/Kessel era did only have the one opportunity to advance (and in an abbreviated season at that). Unfortunate as it still is, I'll have to take the disappointment associated with a lack of progress over not having the chance to advance practically at all.

 

[PROUD PAPA]

Another first round exit and i won't care about keeping the core together. We'd be at the stage( many already are) where the real question moves from "how do we do this?" to "what's the point?".
So my answer to the poll question would be move whichever player returns the most.

 

[Americanadian]

The Phaneuf/Kessel era did only have the one opportunity to advance (and in an abbreviated season at that). Unfortunate as it still is, I'll have to take the disappointment associated with a lack of progress over not having the chance to advance practically at all.

I'd be far more excited to see something new after seeing the current product repeatedly fall short.

 

[Buds17]

I'd be far more excited to see something new after seeing the current product repeatedly fall short.

I'd absolutely recommend changes (any and all of GM, coach, a blockbuster trade). My expectations would align more with a retool though instead of another rebuild.

 

[ToneDog]

Another first round exit and i won't care about keeping the core together. We'd be at the stage( many already are) where the real question moves from "how do we do this?" to "what's the point?".
So my answer to the poll question would be move whichever player returns the most.

Well if anything this rebuild has done, is teach Shanny and Kyle how to do a better rebuild. Sadly, for some, they will be doing it elsewhere if we go 7 for 7 in first round exits.

 

[Superstar]

Trade anyone who doesn’t take a contact that lines up with their comparables. For Nylander that’s between Fiala and Forsberg, for Marner that’s between Gaudreau and Pastrnak. If they want to gouge the Leafs again you take your assets and build a team around players who are focused on winning>$.

That's exactly what teams like Boston and Tampa have been doing, and it's quite obvious how successful they are. Boston literally traded players away like Seguin who doesn't fit in and they've gotten better. How about Yzerman sending Drouin packing?

 

[Phion Keneuf]

I’d rather Marner at $12M and Nylander at $9.5M than Matthews at $15M

 

[francis246]

We can't afford to pay Marner $12 million, my goodness, why do we have to keep overpaying our players for them to stay? It's like going down on the knees and begging them to stay or whatever, as if playing for the Maple Leafs is a torture, and not some kind of privilege that comes with huge endorsement deals.

Marner at 12 is an overpay? Matthews at 14 is the true overpay

 

[Americanadian]

That's exactly what teams like Boston and Tampa have been doing, and it's quite obvious how successful they are. Boston literally traded players away like Seguin who doesn't fit in and they've gotten better. How about Yzerman sending Drouin packing?

Carolina let Hamilton walk as a 28 year old top pair because he asked for more than they thought he was worth and they continue to be a top team.

 

[francis246]

Realistically I don’t see big raises for any of them. I think maybe Marner goes to 11 or just slightly above 11 which I’m fine with. He’s getting a couple grand more than what he’s making now.

Nylander I don’t think gets anywhere near 10. The big thing is you have to keep Matthews lower than MacKinnon. That’s the must. He doesn’t deserve to be time highest paid player in the league, so why should we make him that.

I don’t think the Marner and Nylander deals will be the issue. It’s going to be the Matthews deal, he’s gotta understand if he wants to win in Toronto he can’t make more than 12.

Carolina let Hamilton walk as a 28 year old top pair because he asked for more than they thought he was worth and they continue to be a top team.

I don’t think it was just the fact that he asked for more. It was they had the depth to let him go. Losing him didn’t really affect their defensive core that much more

 

[Gary Nylund]

The Phaneuf/Kessel era did only have the one opportunity to advance (and in an abbreviated season at that). Unfortunate as it still is, I'll have to take the disappointment associated with a lack of progress over not having the chance to advance practically at all.

And don't forget, no matter what happens, we'll always have November.

 

[ACC1224]

Carolina let Hamilton walk as a 28 year old top pair because he asked for more than they thought he was worth and they continue to be a top team.

Hamilton is a nice player but not close to the same tier as Matthews or Marner.
No player of that quality has been told to leave.