Honest question....

[ToneDog]

He put up the points after the contract. In the last 5 years, Marner is #5 in league scoring while Tkachuk is #13 and that is biased data with post contract numbers muddying the mix.

So how much more is Marner worth than Tkachuk ? Is the Pasta deal not fair ?

 

[Americanadian]

Well look at Kadri. He put up a pace of 100 points last year and signed for 7MM.
It sure isnt 1 year or less than a year.
Stats are about trends and a reasonable estimation of where someone might produce in the future.
Pasta was an 88 pt player (annualized) last year and had only played 61 games when they announced his contract.
Prior to that, he was an 82 pt player (annualized). Before that he had a great season of 111 pts (annualized). Note that Marners Annualized total last year was 110 pts.. This year 105 and trending up), and the prior year of around 100.

These comparables can bite too. Marners number will show that he deserves huge money. The team will rely on the generosity of it's top players to stay afloat. If you insist that they get paid comparables, you will inevitably be paying far more than you want to. If Marner continues the torrid pace of the last 20 games, he will even exceed Pastas points this year...while being a far superior player defensively.

This completely ignores goals though. I don't disagree that Marner is a better defensive player but when you think back to Matthews contract and all the emphasis put on goals I would put Pastrnak's contract as the ceiling for Marner. If you look at their all encompassing impact (GSVA/GAR) they have been near identical over the last 5 years and near identical this year.

 

[ToneDog]

This completely ignores goals though. I don't disagree that Marner is a better defensive player but when you think back to Matthews contract and all the emphasis put on goals I would put Pastrnak's contract as the ceiling for Marner. If you look at their all encompassing impact (GSVA/GAR) they have been near identical over the last 5 years and near identical this year.

Ranta needs 3 goals for 50 and signed for 9.5m after Marner. Marner will never score 50 goals. He might not even reach the 35 he scored last year.

Players deserve whatever they can get but it does not work in Gary's world unless the cap rises significantly yearly. Unfortunately for us, it has not and it has hindered many teams who signed deals expecting the cap to rise.

 

[Notsince67]

This completely ignores goals though. I don't disagree that Marner is a better defensive player but when you think back to Matthews contract and all the emphasis put on goals I would put Pastrnak's contract as the ceiling for Marner. If you look at their all encompassing impact (GSVA/GAR) they have been near identical over the last 5 years and near identical this year.

I have a real problem with GSVA from what I have read and I was a professional stats head. It's kind of a throw a bunch of shit in a pot kind of metric a pretend it is a work of chemistry. The coefficients of random variables correlated in unclear ways to come up with a formula metric looks like somebody was tripping on acid.
I have 3 years of GAR. Even that has Pasta falling short.

 

[Dekes For Days]

The real answer is keep both.
But Marner is obviously more important than Nylander.

 

[Americanadian]

I have a real problem with GSVA from what I have read and I was a professional stats head. It's kind of a throw a bunch of shit in a pot kind of metric a pretend it is a work of chemistry. The coefficients of random variables correlated in unclear ways to come up with a formula metric looks like somebody was tripping on acid.
I have 3 years of GAR. Even that has Pasta falling short.
View attachment 674441View attachment 674436

Coincidentally I am also a professional stats head, data analyst by trade, statistician by education. GSVA isn't a regression model, it appears to be a formula that was more or less created by hand but it's still a publicly used number.

I did say they have been near identical for 5 years in GAR, not 3.

3 years:

When you adjust for TOI Pastrnak is slightly more effective per minute but I won't hold it against Marner that he plays more minutes. The point is that they have been near identical for the last half decade and they have been near identical this season is overall impact. I think Marner should fall between Pastrnak and Gaudreau and I wouldn't be upset if he got Pastrnak's contract.

 

[acrobaticgoalie]

Watching the AVs/Pens last night, I was thinking another first round exit and I try to make a deal with Sakic if he has eyes for the big Yank.

Matthews, Nylander and Rielly for MacKinnon, Rantanen, and Byram.

What incentive would the Avs have to do this?

 

[ToneDog]

What incentive would the Avs have to do this?

They would have to be goo-goo eyed over the best American player in the world.

 

[Americanadian]

Ranta needs 3 goals for 50 and signed for 9.5m after Marner. Marner will never score 50 goals. He might not even reach the 35 he scored last year.

Players deserve whatever they can get but it does not work in Gary's world unless the cap rises significantly yearly. Unfortunately for us, it has not and it has hindered many teams who signed deals expecting the cap to rise.

Dubas screwed himself the summer when he signed Marner. There was no reason to give him that much, he signed in mid-September so the threat of an offer sheet was never real then somehow Sakic signed Rantanen for 1.65M less 2 weeks later. There was a lot of speculation that Dubas was being smart by going 6 years and paying a premium instead of going 3 years like TBL did with Point or CGY did with Tkachuk because their next contracts would be significantly higher than Marner's currently is but here we are in present day and they both signed 9.5Mx8 and the Leafs are stuck with Marner at 10.9M.

 

[Leafshater67]

For a guy with Burke in your name, I'd assume you remember what the Leafs were like without star talent.. And you prefer cap space and signing mediocre players like LACK with that cap instead of keeping Marner and Matthews. Laughable.

I’m not saying they need to lack top talent, I’m saying teams need to be built around the cap now and not a few good players. There needs to be a balanced lineup and paying 40 million to 3 players is a recipe for disaster.

I’d trade Marner right now for a lesser player like Brady Tkachuk. Why? Because of the cap hit. He’s likely 5 million cheaper than Marner’s next contract. Having a top heavy team leaves no room for the type of secondary players that win cups. No Nick Paul, artturi lehkonen or players like that - just one Mitch Marner and if he is hurt or not performing, there’s nobody else that can pick up the ball. My fellow leafs fans should have learned that by now.

if they pay:
Matthews 14-15
Marner 12-13
Nylander 10-11
Tavares 8
that’s 47 million in 4 players who are all fairly interchangeable with eachother. No #1 D, no proven goaltender, very little secondary scoring.. just a top heavy team in cap hell.

Buffalo has Cozens and Thompson for 7 and some change a piece, NJ has Hughes and Hichier for both under 8.5, Tampa has Point, Stamkos and Kucherov for all under 9.5. Why should Toronto even attempt to pay 40+ for the same group that has yet to win a playoff round?

Hockey is a team sport, not a race to see who can compile the highest paid top 3 forwards.

 

[ToneDog]

Dubas screwed himself the summer when he signed Marner. There was no reason to give him that much, he signed in mid-September so the threat of an offer sheet was never real then somehow Sakic signed Rantanen for 1.65M less 2 weeks later. There was a lot of speculation that Dubas was being smart by going 6 years and paying a premium instead of going 3 years like TBL did with Point or CGY did with Tkachuk because their next contracts would be significantly higher than Marner's currently is but here we are in present day and they both signed 9.5Mx8 and the Leafs are stuck with Marner at 10.9M.

In a perfect world, the 3 would have taken discounts, were surrounded by a better supporting cast, won a cup or two and cashed in now. Let's see if they prefer money over winning next contract.

 

[Leafshater67]

What a meaningless stat. Before 1990, nobody went to the cup with a salary of 3mm. Actually, nobody in the nhl made 3mm
Such a lazy take

The cap has been in place for almost 20 years. No teams with playoff success anytime soon will have 45-50m (estimates assuming they resign the big 4) in 4 forwards.

That’s not a lazy take, it’s the truth. Top heavy teams do not have success. Period.

 

[ToneDog]

I’m not saying they need to lack top talent, I’m saying teams need to be built around the cap now and not a few good players. There needs to be a balanced lineup and paying 40 million to 3 players is a recipe for disaster.

I’d trade Marner right now for a lesser player like Brady Tkachuk. Why? Because of the cap hit. He’s likely 5 million cheaper than Marner’s next contract. Having a top heavy team leaves no room for the type of secondary players that win cups. No Nick Paul, artturi lehkonen or players like that - just one Mitch Marner and if he is hurt or not performing, there’s nobody else that can pick up the ball. My fellow leafs fans should have learned that by now.

if they pay:
Matthews 14-15
Marner 12-13
Nylander 10-11
Tavares 8
that’s 47 million in 4 players who are all fairly interchangeable with eachother. No #1 D, no proven goaltender, very little secondary scoring.. just a top heavy team in cap hell.

Doubt Sens or many teams would want to blow their salary structure out of the water by trading a Brady Tkachuk for Marner. As good as Marner is, he has not proven he can dominate a playoff series. I believe he has 2 assists in 8 closeout games. Yuck.

 

[Clark4Ever]

I think we need to keep the big 3 and then we can get some cap relief when JT's contract is done. I'm confident JT would take a hometown discount to retire as a Leaf.

 

[Americanadian]

Doubt Sens or many teams would want to blow their salary structure out of the water by trading a Brady Tkachuk for Marner. As good as Marner is, he has not proven he can dominate a playoff series. I believe he has 2 assists in 8 closeout games. Yuck.

To be fair I think the point of the post was that trading Marner for a player that brings equal value per dollar or a higher value per dollar on a lesser money contract would be good business. This is why a player like Hagel gets a similar return to a player like Meier.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Dubas screwed himself the summer when he signed Marner. There was no reason to give him that much, he signed in mid-September so the threat of an offer sheet was never real then somehow Sakic signed Rantanen for 1.65M less 2 weeks later. There was a lot of speculation that Dubas was being smart by going 6 years and paying a premium instead of going 3 years like TBL did with Point or CGY did with Tkachuk because their next contracts would be significantly higher than Marner's currently is but here we are in present day and they both signed 9.5Mx8 and the Leafs are stuck with Marner at 10.9M.

Of course there was a reason to give him that much. He had earned that much, and he wasn't going to take anything less than that much, especially after the way he had been mistreated by Lou and Babcock. Having him at that amount consistent with the history of post-ELC contracts was infinitely better than losing him.
And for the record, the threat of an offer sheet was real, and was only amplified as it stretched into the season.
Sakic signed a lesser player for a lesser amount. Shouldn't be surprising to anyone. Teams who bridged other lesser players ended up benefitting from a global pandemic-induced flat cap, though it's also weird to leave out that one of those bridged players isn't with his team anymore.
It's also pretty ridiculous to claim we're "stuck" with one of the best players in the world.

 

[Leafshater67]

Doubt Sens or many teams would want to blow their salary structure out of the water by trading a Brady Tkachuk for Marner. As good as Marner is, he has not proven he can dominate a playoff series. I believe he has 2 assists in 8 closeout games. Yuck.

This. Nobody would do that deal but leafs fans who honestly believe resigning Marner and Matthews to 13 and 15 million dollar deals will help the team are delusional.

Dubas didn’t play hardball when it mattered and he had control and now the leafs future depends on Matthews and Marner showing mercy when the ball is in their court. He really needed to push for term if he was going to pay them max dollar and he did not.

 

[freshwind]

the problem i have with these discussions is that it is always about the player and not the team ... i hope they figure out a way to keep the 3 of them, but if they cannot then the one who gets dealt has to take in to consideration both the next contract, the potential return, and the projected cap space then available ... it is about the crest on the front and not about the name bar on the back ...
the reason I semi-lean to moving marner is we can know before the ntc kicks in on matthews and nylander (june 2023)... marner is still 2 years away from ufa but has a ntc as of july 1 like the other 2 and cannot sign an extension until july 2024 ..
unless you are willing to possibly let mitch walk as a ufa the decisions need to be made this june prior to the draft

 

[ToneDog]

This. Nobody would do that deal but leafs fans who honestly believe resigning Marner and Matthews to 13 and 15 million dollar deals will help the team are delusional.

Dubas didn’t play hardball when it mattered and he had control and now the leafs future depends on Matthews and Marner showing mercy when the ball is in their court. He really needed to push for term if he was going to pay them max dollar and he did not.

I want to say Matty and Marner are not signing for $15m and $13m, but then again I never thought they would pay Matty more than McDavid based on term. Unless they pull a miracle and beat the Bruins, the dummies that negotiated that deal won't be around to negotiate the next one.

 

[Gary Nylund]

We can't afford to pay Marner $12 million, my goodness, why do we have to keep overpaying our players for them to stay? It's like going down on the knees and begging them to stay or whatever, as if playing for the Maple Leafs is a torture, and not some kind of privilege that comes with huge endorsement deals.

Trade anyone who doesn’t take a contact that lines up with their comparables. For Nylander that’s between Fiala and Forsberg, for Marner that’s between Gaudreau and Pastrnak. If they want to gouge the Leafs again you take your assets and build a team around players who are focused on winning>$.

I agree. M&M are the best players I've seen play for the Leafs in the last 50+ years but if the team never wins in the playoffs, I don't even care. If we have to overpay the stars to keep them, I don't like our chances of winning the cup and I'd be fine with trading them all. Trade M&M and Willie for 10 1st round picks or the equivalent in picks and prospects, tear it all down, tank and start over again. We might spend a few years at the bottom again but it would at least be interesting to watch and dream about what the future might hold. Better than overpaying a bunch of prima donnas who insist on being overpaid and never win anything.

 

[mydnyte]

Offer Nylander for the #2 overall pick this draft,
and
Marner for Bedard ...if you want to blow it up, blow it up.

Realistically, (except for contract uncertainty) both deal favor the teams getting the Leafs players in the immediate term.

Bedard could be a generational player, but, he's still a 5'9" winger and .i dont know why he keeps getting called a Center by guys like Button etc
Marner 'should' be a 100+ point player this year and is a great 2-way player
Bedard 'could' be as good, or better ...or worse at the NHL level.

I'd say the Bedard Hype is more in line with MacKinnon, not McDavid, and MacKinnon took 5 seasons to 'break out'
Marner's career is 1.096 ppg vs 1.058 ppg for Mac
MacKinnon's advantage is he IS a Center.

 

[HockeyVirus]

I’m not saying they need to lack top talent, I’m saying teams need to be built around the cap now and not a few good players. There needs to be a balanced lineup and paying 40 million to 3 players is a recipe for disaster.

I’d trade Marner right now for a lesser player like Brady Tkachuk. Why? Because of the cap hit. He’s likely 5 million cheaper than Marner’s next contract. Having a top heavy team leaves no room for the type of secondary players that win cups. No Nick Paul, artturi lehkonen or players like that - just one Mitch Marner and if he is hurt or not performing, there’s nobody else that can pick up the ball. My fellow leafs fans should have learned that by now.

if they pay:
Matthews 14-15
Marner 12-13
Nylander 10-11
Tavares 8
that’s 47 million in 4 players who are all fairly interchangeable with eachother. No #1 D, no proven goaltender, very little secondary scoring.. just a top heavy team in cap hell.

Buffalo has Cozens and Thompson for 7 and some change a piece, NJ has Hughes and Hichier for both under 8.5, Tampa has Point, Stamkos and Kucherov for all under 9.5. Why should Toronto even attempt to pay 40+ for the same group that has yet to win a playoff round?

Hockey is a team sport, not a race to see who can compile the highest paid top 3 forwards.

Well hold on, those players got those cheaper deals because they simply were not nearly as good as our players. Matthews scored 40 goals as a rookie, Marner took a season but he broke out his 2nd year where he paced for 90 points after a slow start and never looked back. Then he had a 90 point season on his ELC the next year. Those teams the players didn't break out until well after their ELC ended.

With that said, 0 chance those are the numbers. I personally think Nylander is done in Toronto regardless of what happens this year. Not that I agree with it, but I don't think they can afford him for the reasons you said and prefer to keep MM and AM. Exception would be if one of those guys wants out.

Tavares is not getting 8 at 35. He might get 3-4 on a 2 year term.

And I also don't think those guys are going to get paid like that. Matthews is not worth 14-15. He's just not. Maybe if he was on the open market and bottom feeders were throwing out offers. On top of that, I think the kids had a point where they were already elite, they could get injured or traded after taking a discount.

Both MM and AM are rich now. Both have seen what the team has had to do to fit their cap hits in. Both probably don't think they are overpaid but realize their cap hits have costed them friends leaving and good players leaving.

I think they both take their current contracts or close to it. 11.5 * 8 a piece if I had to guess. With the cap scheduled for a massive jump in the next decade, it won't be long before those are the new 9AAV, it still gives the team an elite first line, and the assets we get back from Nylander and cap space will be used to probably try and re-sign ROR and then fill out some depth. I can see next season being a reset year for the org. Probably why they kept that first

 

[57 Years No Cup]

Where's the Trade Matthews for assets before he walks option?

 

[leafsfan5]

Man I don't want to go through this contracts BS again, feels like just yesterday Matthews/Marner bent us over

 

[Voodoo Child]

Offer Nylander for the #2 overall pick this draft,
and
Marner for Bedard ...if you want to blow it up, blow it up.

Realistically, (except for contract uncertainty) both deal favor the teams getting the Leafs players in the immediate term.

Bedard could be a generational player, but, he's still a 5'9" winger and .i dont know why he keeps getting called a Center by guys like Button etc
Marner 'should' be a 100+ point player this year and is a great 2-way player
Bedard 'could' be as good, or better ...or worse at the NHL level.

I'd say the Bedard Hype is more in line with MacKinnon, not McDavid, and MacKinnon took 5 seasons to 'break out'
Marner's career is 1.096 ppg vs 1.058 ppg for Mac
MacKinnon's advantage is he IS a Center.

No one will do either of those trades.

It all depends on the playoffs but as it stands today I’d rather give Mitch 12 than give Willy a cent over ten.

Hopefully Matthews and Mitch realize they’ve made generational wealth and give slight discounts - 13 for AM and 10.8 for Mitch - and pull off the gas, but they won’t.

Would you?