Just to add to my previous point that the market is growing overall but first quarter this year had a huge surge (then retraction), there was another enormous source of funds that entered the market this year. This is in addition to what I stated before, the regular salary-folk getting “free money” from stimulus to corporate bonuses to early bird tax refunds in addition to the stay-home from COVID we saved.
As I mentioned, the high roller market is not the same market as regular guys buying a few junk wax 89 Fleer boxes and PSA 10 Griffey Jr. RCs. On the high rollers end, there are overseas (Asian) buyers with huge bankrolls and...surprise, surprise...their sport of choice is basketball. But recently due to some “crypto stuff” happening, a huge amount of $$ came out of crypto and into the high roller market.
These people are on a totally different rhythm and mindset than the regular folk who splurged $10k of free money first quarter. Us kinda people look at a card like a Lebron RC patch auto that sells for $250k and we think of it like it’s 25 used Toyota Corollas. They think of $250k like it’s 1/15th of their investment bank roll that came out of crypto. That’s why these newer cards are going for, to us, ridiculous amounts.
As of now, the first quarter free money pretty much is spent. The key base cards, both new cards and junk wax, have corrected back down by 100% (of the total surge increase) but since the market for real is still growing, I feel we’ve recovered at least 5-10%. So that means if we never had the surge of free money starting February, and just had the saved money of COVID 2021, we still grew like 10% at this point in May/June. That’s not bad. But across the board in a shorter sight observation, looking at now compared to only Feb/March, it “appears” things are “down”. They are, but not overall 2021 or compared to 2020.
Now as stated above the regular folks’ free money is spent but we’re still operating somewhat on stay home money. So that market “corrected”, the junk wax PSA 10 singles and the sealed boxes that are tied to them, and a lot of newer base card RCs. But the existing overseas people and the new crypto extracted funds are still pushing high end cards to newer heights.
Another phenomenon that is happening are the dealers who either had large inventory of junk that were now liquidated during the surge, and/or new sealed product sold for huge premiums that recent new product sells for, and/or were in the high roller market and are riding that wave. These guys are like real estate moguls...they deal on a totally different scale. You’ll see some of these guys on YouTube going to major card shows and making 5 to 6 digit trades. Their overall value in terms of bankroll and inventory went up double digits (like 10x to 25x since 2017). As the market moves they take their new money/value and keep buying high Enders to flip. So it can be said, the surge money is also fueling the high ended market.
So, the rich got richer and the dumb money spent their wads. Looking at Feb/March to now, high rollers keep rolling higher; but at the same time it “looks” like junk/base crashed...but not really. And the grading companies shutting down hurt the regular people market since they can’t get their base/junk RCs graded anymore, which is how many of those collectors increased their collection value. High roller folks can afford to pay an expedited triple digit grading fee on their five to seven digit card. Regular collectors can’t do that when, even if their cards make PSA 10, the triple digit grading fee wipes out the entire gain.