Hindsight - Dubas or Hunter?

[93LEAFS]

I don't think that is the case for most. I like all 3 but only want one as Leafs GM currently.

It's more like Dubas haters keep drumming up Lou and Hunter constantly in desperate attempts to criticize Dubas. It's never the other way around.

Move on people for christ sakes both are dead to the Leafs. Focus on the future. We'll have Dubas for another 2 years no matter what so take up another hobby if it bothers you so much. GMs don't get fired after 2 years.

Umm, a lot of the Dubas supporters put everything that doesn't work on other people. Blaming Lou for prior roster make-up, ignoring Lou got rid of terrible contracts like Dion, I've seen them try to blame ownership with no evidence for trading Kadri and trying to compete this year, they blamed Babcock for everything despite not realizing it was a two-way street and neither party did the other any favors.

The amount of pro-Dubas supporters who were lining up to call out Hunter when Canada lost to Russia just reeked of a vendetta, and was pretty funny when they pulled off winning gold.

 

[Ignatius Reilly]

Since we don't know how things would have actually panned out under anyone else, it's all just guessing.

Regardless, at this point it sure looks like it was a mistake to reward kids who had only got to their RFA and had never won anything.

Seems to have sent the wrong message. "You can have it all, without too much effort."

I'm pretty sure that's a new concept introduced to the league by Dubas. Maybe wait until UFA next time, like everybody else?

 

[Martin Skoula]

Since we don't know how things would have actually panned out under anyone else, it's all just guessing.

Regardless, at this point it sure looks like it was a mistake to reward kids who had only got to their RFA and had never won anything.

Seems to have sent the wrong message. "You can have it all, without too much effort."

I'm pretty sure that's a new concept introduced to the league by Dubas. Maybe wait until UFA next time, like everybody else?

It's too bad he tricked Sakic into paying Rantanen for accomplishing even less.

 

[93LEAFS]

It's too bad he tricked Sakic into paying Rantanen for accomplishing even less.

Rantanen accomplished about the same, got a million less a year, and didn't get any of the extremely favorable things Mitch got in his contract such as ridiculously heavy frontloading with the max lockout protection possible. If there is a lockout in 2021-22 which is entirely possible, Rantanen is out 10m, Marner is out 750k. Even if its just a fraction of the season like 95 and 2012, Say 20 games, Rantanen would be out a full 2.3m or so more. I prefer Marner, but Marner's deal is significantly better for the player in multiple ways (1.6m more a year in cap hit, all most all paid in signing bonus, frontloaded more and a modified NTC to a full NMC).

 

[Jeffrey Pedler]

I don't think that is the case for most. I like all 3 but only want one as Leafs GM currently.

It's more like Dubas haters keep drumming up Lou and Hunter constantly in desperate attempts to criticize Dubas. It's never the other way around.

Move on people for christ sakes both are dead to the Leafs. Focus on the future. We'll have Dubas for another 2 years no matter what so take up another hobby if it bothers you so much. GMs don't get fired after 2 years.

Exactly, if some leaf's fans had it their way, we would start from the beginning every year. New GM, new coaches, trading players every year for draft picks, then trading the prospects picked with those draft picks to get more picks. Their would be no consistency, just new everything every year.

 

[sparxx87]

Ofcourse its difficult to win playoff games especially when you have 2 perennial powerhouses to get out of the division against. I would have been ecstatic if we had won game 7 but lost the next 4. Is atleast tangible progress and got the Bruin monkey off our backs.

But will turn your point back on you - I'm not sure you understand how close we came to beating the Bruins.

Given how Boston beat us by a coin toss practically we would have been favourites to also dispose of the Jackets and Canes who Boston easily disposed of. In fact the Bruins only lost the Cup by 1 game yet its seemingly impossible for negative Leaf fans to give any consideration that could have possibly been us with a slightly different twist of fate in that series - say one less idiotic suspension?

It wasn’t just a coin toss, though? When the stakes were highest, the Bruins got it done. That’s what they‘ve been one of the most successful cores of the past decade.

The result was very predictable, even if the Leafs made it a little closer than some would have expected.

 

[BrainyBomber]

It wasn’t just a coin toss, though? When the stakes were highest, the Bruins got it done. That’s what they‘ve been one of the most successful cores of the past decade.

The result was very predictable, even if the Leafs made it a little closer than some would have expected.

It really was a coin toss. If it was so entirely predictable than why didn't the Bruins win the Cup? Why did betting markets have us practically evens?

Hockey is very unpredictable especially with so much parity now. The biggest and fluctuating factor is goalie form. You also can't predict injuries and suspensions.

I also stand by it. Kadri's suspension was enough of a difference to be a deciding factor in the series.

The Bruins have been a great team it's true but you're overselling them. They haven't won a Cup in a decade and much of their core is approaching their twilight. Bergeron, Chara, Marchand and Rask all over 32. They aren't predetermined to always beat us nor were they last year.

 

[93LEAFS]

It really was a coin toss. If it was so entirely predictable than why didn't the Bruins win the Cup? Why did betting markets have us practically evens?

Hockey is very unpredictable especially with so much parity now. The biggest and fluctuating factor is goalie form. You also can't predict injuries and suspensions.

I also stand by it. Kadri's suspension was enough of a difference to be a deciding factor in the series.

The Bruins have been a great team it's true but you're overselling them. They haven't won a Cup in a decade and much of their core is approaching their twilight. Bergeron, Chara, Marchand and Rask all over 32. They aren't predetermined to always beat us nor were they last year.

Betting markets pricing exists to balance bets, not to predict results. Now, sharps somewhat balance odds out, but the odds can still be significantly influenced by the joe schmoe the average better. A Sportsbook dream is the exact same amount bet on each side and they take home the 10% juice built-in.

 

[LeafsNation75]

Umm, a lot of the Dubas supporters put everything that doesn't work on other people. Blaming Lou for prior roster make-up, ignoring Lou got rid of terrible contracts like Dion, I've seen them try to blame ownership with no evidence for trading Kadri and trying to compete this year, they blamed Babcock for everything despite not realizing it was a two-way street and neither party did the other any favors.

The amount of pro-Dubas supporters who were lining up to call out Hunter when Canada lost to Russia just reeked of a vendetta, and was pretty funny when they pulled off winning gold.

I have always said Lou did some good things like trading Phaneuf without retaining any of his contract, because it was thought there was no way they could trade him if they didn't retain 50% of his contract. However you can say a lot of the good things was un done by giving Marleau 3 years and $6.25 million when he was over 35 years old and giving Zaitsev 7 years.

 

[BrainyBomber]

Betting markets pricing exists to balance bets, not to predict results. Now, sharps somewhat balance odds out, but the odds can still be significantly influenced by the joe schmoe the average better. A Sportsbook dream is the exact same amount bet on each side and they take home the 10% juice built-in.

Betting markets may hedge to a degree but there are still clear faves at times for matchups.

Current Stanley Cup odds don't look very even. TB is the fave and are 5 times as likely to win the Cup as us and more than twice as likely to win over any Western team:
2019-20 Stanley Cup futures odds: Stars’ stock rises

I don't bet but I have more faith in betting odds than the average Joe Schmoe on here.

 

[AllDay28]

Dubas AINEC

 

[93LEAFS]

Betting markets may hedge to a degree but there are still clear faves at times for matchups.

Current Stanley Cup odds don't look very even. TB is the fave and are 5 times as likely to win the Cup as us and more than twice as likely to win over any Western team:
2019-20 Stanley Cup futures odds: Stars’ stock rises

I don't bet but I have more faith in betting odds than the average Joe Schmoe on here.

Betting odds don't hedge. Hedging would be, +1000 in September to win the Cup ($100 to win $1000 with a payout of $1100) and they make it to Game 7 of the Stanley cup finals. Now, the other team is -110 to win. So, if I want to either limit my exposure or come out break even on either side of the bet I could, because the value of my original bet has dramatically increased.

Sports Books don't hedge. What they are designed to do is get equal liability on each side of a wager. For example, if there is 1000 bucks on each side of the bet, a sportsbook would offer that bet at -110 (which means you have to bet $110 dollars to win $100 for a payout of $210). Because there are future bets that complicate playoff betting odds (meaning that more than the direct result has to be factored in to betting odds, it gets complex). Yes, gambling odds give an idea, especially on heavily bet sports like the NFL, because there are huge gambling experts who bet in such volume that they hammer the odds to reasonable predictions. But, you still see a impact on bets when its a team with a massive following, especially in prime-time games.

I mean, they are probably significantly more accurate than the average HFboards poster, but you are using them to justify something that isn't there purpose. Prices on bets are designed entirely to even the betting on each side, not to predict outcomes. Now, people trying to predict outcomes are betting, so it has some level of co-relation but they are not equal.

 

[BrainyBomber]

I mean, they are probably significantly more accurate than the average HFboards poster, but you are using them to justify something that isn't there purpose. Prices on bets are designed entirely to even the betting on each side, not to predict outcomes. Now, people trying to predict outcomes are betting, so it has some level of co-relation but they are not equal.

Sure not equal but still useful. Alternatively then multiple PC simulations outside of betting markets would still have had the Bruins-Leafs series pretty damn close.

 

[Gabriel426]

Hunter is not a GM in the NHL, pretty hard to see what he could do as a GM.
As for Lou Vs Dubas.
Lou got the Islanders without JT into the 2nd round by beating the Pens. Say all you want about overachieving.... that’s a huge win for Lou.
Having said that, one needs to wonder how come Lou couldn’t get the Leafs into the 2nd round. As he had 2yrs to do it, with a more talented roster and a very good coach. When Lou was here, he got all the cap space as the kids were all in their ELCs. Got enough prospects in the pipeline to make trades plus a lot of UFAs contract which won’t be resign with the Leafs. Yet Lou still couldn’t get a solid Dman for the Leafs.
Could it be that Babs didn’t share the same vision as Lou bc both Martin and Leo seems to be solid NHLers playing for the Islanders where one of them could barely keep up with the team and the other one is the 14th forward with the Leafs. As for Zai, his performance nosedived after Lou left. Did Lou misjudged talents or Babs showing Lou is a bad GM by giving that contract to Zai.
Those will be better discussions than comparing what would Hunter do if he is GM....

 

[LeafsNation75]

Hunter is not a GM in the NHL, pretty hard to see what he could do as a GM.
As for Lou Vs Dubas.
Lou got the Islanders without JT into the 2nd round by beating the Pens. Say all you want about overachieving.... that’s a huge win for Lou.
Having said that, one needs to wonder how come Lou couldn’t get the Leafs into the 2nd round. As he had 2yrs to do it, with a more talented roster and a very good coach. When Lou was here, he got all the cap space as the kids were all in their ELCs. Got enough prospects in the pipeline to make trades plus a lot of UFAs contract which won’t be resign with the Leafs. Yet Lou still couldn’t get a solid Dman for the Leafs.
Could it be that Babs didn’t share the same vision as Lou bc both Martin and Leo seems to be solid NHLers playing for the Islanders where one of them could barely keep up with the team and the other one is the 14th forward with the Leafs. As for Zai, his performance nosedived after Lou left. Did Lou misjudged talents or Babs showing Lou is a bad GM by giving that contract to Zai.
Those will be better discussions than comparing what would Hunter do if he is GM....

I thought that Babcock and Lamoriello were more on the same page than Babcock and Dubas? At least that's what I remember reading. One example I can think is during the start of the 2017-2018 season Lou had re-signed Roman Polak who was previously with them in training camp on a tryout, since he suffered that knee injury against Washington in the 2017 playoffs. When I first heard the news I said to myself Babcock told Lou he wanted to bring back Polak and Lou was obviously okay with that.

 

[613Leafer]

I think ideally we would have had Lou for another year. Lou has his faults (way more likely to overpay declining veteran UFAs for example, such as Marleau, Clowe, etc), but I'm positive he would have signed Nylander, Matthews, and Marner to better deals.

I generally like Dubas, but those contracts severely hamper our flexibility, and will do so for years and years. Plus walk these guys to UFA earlier than the majority of other teams young stars.

 

[Rants Mulliniks]

Rantanen accomplished about the same, got a million less a year, and didn't get any of the extremely favorable things Mitch got in his contract such as ridiculously heavy frontloading with the max lockout protection possible. If there is a lockout in 2021-22 which is entirely possible, Rantanen is out 10m, Marner is out 750k. Even if its just a fraction of the season like 95 and 2012, Say 20 games, Rantanen would be out a full 2.3m or so more. I prefer Marner, but Marner's deal is significantly better for the player in multiple ways (1.6m more a year in cap hit, all most all paid in signing bonus, frontloaded more and a modified NTC to a full NMC).

If you compound the interest on what he lost on that bonus to Lou to retirement age, you might be surprised what it works out to.

 

[Rants Mulliniks]

Hunter is not a GM in the NHL, pretty hard to see what he could do as a GM.
As for Lou Vs Dubas.
Lou got the Islanders without JT into the 2nd round by beating the Pens. Say all you want about overachieving.... that’s a huge win for Lou.
Having said that, one needs to wonder how come Lou couldn’t get the Leafs into the 2nd round. As he had 2yrs to do it, with a more talented roster and a very good coach. When Lou was here, he got all the cap space as the kids were all in their ELCs. Got enough prospects in the pipeline to make trades plus a lot of UFAs contract which won’t be resign with the Leafs. Yet Lou still couldn’t get a solid Dman for the Leafs.
Could it be that Babs didn’t share the same vision as Lou bc both Martin and Leo seems to be solid NHLers playing for the Islanders where one of them could barely keep up with the team and the other one is the 14th forward with the Leafs. As for Zai, his performance nosedived after Lou left. Did Lou misjudged talents or Babs showing Lou is a bad GM by giving that contract to Zai.
Those will be better discussions than comparing what would Hunter do if he is GM....

The short answer is he lucked into having the only job opening when the Cup champ coach decided to walk. Players don't mysteriously go from worst to best defensive team overnight.

 

[Rants Mulliniks]

I think ideally we would have had Lou for another year. Lou has his faults (way more likely to overpay declining veteran UFAs for example, such as Marleau, Clowe, etc), but I'm positive he would have signed Nylander, Matthews, and Marner to better deals.

I generally like Dubas, but those contracts severely hamper our flexibility, and will do so for years and years. Plus walk these guys to UFA earlier than the majority of other teams young stars.

Lou is tough to judge on contracts. He has some that look great but when you really look at them, they were market value for production. Then he has a bunch that look terrible. One of the biggest problems is that he had a whole year to negotiate Nylander and didn't, instead walking him right to RFA, which in turn put everything else in motion.

 

[93LEAFS]

If you compound the interest on what he lost on that bonus to Lou to retirement age, you might be surprised what it works out to.

That wasn't Lou. That was primarily Shanahan and Pridham. Lou obviously was difficult about bonuses, but he was essentially a non-factor on the Marner ELC negotiation. All of the 3 picks before Marner were signed before Lou even arrived, and Marner was only signed 5 days after Lou arrived (July 23rd 2015 to July 28th 2015). It is not like you need a GM really to sign a slot ELC deal. This was a move set in motion before Lou was named GM. For reference, McDavid signed July 3rd, Eichel signed July 1st and Strome signed on July 6th all with significant bonus packages. Now, you could say they had an inkling Lou was coming, but there's no way they would have held out on bonuses for McDavid or Eichel for a GM who might be coming. During this time frame between July 1st and July 23rd many major roster moves were made (including the Kessel deal). Nylander got his bonuses, but people need to realize Pridham wasn't hired to be part of the Leafs until a day after Nylander signed his ELC.

 

[sparxx87]

Sure not equal but still useful. Alternatively then multiple PC simulations outside of betting markets would still have had the Bruins-Leafs series pretty damn close.

 

[hullsy47]

It's too bad he tricked Sakic into paying Rantanen for accomplishing even less.

Good post
It ll be fun watching other RFAs gettimg bloated deals or richer bridge deals
The leafs gave themselves a window and now for the next 5 years gotta make it fun or we blow it all up again

 

[Nineteen67]

Pat Quinn

 

[daveleaf]

At the time, the way it was set up with Lou as the GM and the other two as assistants. It only made sense that the future GM would have come from that circle. I do like Lou but age is not on his side and I believe Shanny was still in the belief he wanted to build something where someone would be here for a decade or two.

There are parts of Dubas I do like, a couple of trades as well but the team is flawed. The way he went about letting the Nylander signing go on till the last moment. To me, he still has Assistant written over him. You guys can go on about money ball, money puck, offence wins but this team is not built to win when it matters. The Kadri trade will go down as one of the worst trades in Leaf land. On the Avs he will be the gritty performer he was here, score timely goals and be grow into a playoff performer. This franchise and this fan base wasn't patient enough for that. He is the kind of player that wins cups and does all the ***** things to win big games.

On that note. Team is one sided, built like a flower and gets blown away in the wind. The guy for the job was Hunter. Hunters win, just like the Sutter's, they win and unfortunately the thick skulls in the GTA have lost too many brain cells to smog to understand that.

 

[BrainyBomber]

Predictive analytics then whatever you want to call it:
How AI systems beat Vegas oddsmakers in sports forecasting accuracy