voyageur
Hockey fanatic
- Jul 10, 2011
- 10,463
- 9,826
I think fans have to be realistic about where a player is at. The same thing came out when Sami Niku had his breakthrough AHL season, and everyone was pinning him as the next top 4 d-man to replace Enstrom, saying that Chiarot was heaping garbage, because his breakouts were off, and should be demoted to promote Niku. Next thing you know Chiarot is playing top pairing in the Stanley Cup on a different team, that eliminated us, while Niku is floundering.IDK. We were told all preseason about the "competition on the blue line" and how exciting it would be to have an environment in which young players -- because it was only ever going to be the prospects who were competing for that lone spot -- would be going all out to secure 6th and last spot.
We have also heard time and time again that the org is "committed to / invested in" the career of Logan Stanley, suggesting that barring injury he had the 6th spot locked up, leaving 7th D and PB.
Based on that competition for the 6th spot narrative, what evidence do we have that the org seeks blueline balance and has specific roles in mind for prospects in the lengthening queue that is the Jets / Moose blueline? It seems to be that the roles have been set for a while, with Stan as the preferred 6th D , perhaps in some sort of rotation with Samberg, and Capo doing whatever he's doing as a PG plugin.
I don't see that changing this season, which makes perfect sense as they near the stretch looking to solidify the roster and get it playoff ready. And I'm not sure why it would change next season, with Schmidt and Pionk still under contract and neither an easy trade without the Jets retaining, which they seem loathe to do.
Maybe you're right, and the org has a master plan of succession read to roll out in which ripening prospects like Gawanke, Lundmark, Chisholm, Heinola and Samberg will slot right in and replace pricy contracts who are aging out. But it isn't clear how those timelines will add up, and it ignores factors like management's desire to save face over expensive picks or contracts that they are going to want to play to justify the cost of.
How many players has Chevy paid significant cash for, and then looked to trade or even buy out? How much luck will he have with Schmidt or Pionk given that he was ready to let the team's steadiest and most versatile defender in DeMelo walk in the ED?
I think this org does a lot right -- I'm not sure it's done a great job in managing the dev of its young D corps, or in scouting high-value D to bring in as insurance. There's a laundry list of crap D brought in when Stanley and even Samberg might have contributed -- we all remember them, or try to blot them out.
I have no idea at this point whether Heinola will ever be a useful player at the NHL level -- and I'm not sure the Jets do either. But if he doesn't get there, and that failure can be partly chalked up to his spotty usage and long spells not playing over the past three years, that's an expensive miss, and would make the 2nd bust of a first-round pick in a few years, for a team that needs to nail its 1st-rounders.
And that's kind of the main point for me as a fan -- I want our picks to prosper and make a difference as they develop. I'd love it if Stan came back and dominated and pushed out another, bigger contract from our top 6. We're going to need players on ELCs to push on with the big signings coming up. But I don't see a path for many of our D prospects as things stand, and that includes interesting players like Lundmark and Chisholm, or even Gawkanke, who's had no shot in the NHL yet and is now a waiver risk.
So yeah, maybe next year, or the year after. But also maybe not.
Anyhoo, essay over.
Obviously to compare Heinola and Niku as a skillset would be erroneous, there's more talent in Heinola's game, though I think some of the weaknesses in physicality are similar.
But Heinola isn't at a point where he can replace Pionk or Schmidt. Realistically it's not that close, to what those kind of players bring. In many different ways. His game this year has been closer to Capobianco's, if not worse, which is why he hasn't stuck around. If he has stuck around this long, the Jets are either trying to showcase him, build up his confidence, or appease an agent who would like a cut of some NHL salary as opposed to the $70 000 he would be getting in the A.
Samberg and Stanley haven't passed Dillon in their development either, so it's good to have those two in competition. Two very different skillsets that can matchup differently against different opponents. Both have progressed slowly, but both have clearly shown that they can play in the NHL against elite players, if not consistently.
Gawanke was always a flier pick and his defensive game has inhibited him from being in serious consideration for a promotion. Chisholm didn't have a standout preseason, and I think if you can turn a 5th round pick into a tradeable asset, you've done well. Maybe he gets in that 7/8 discussion next year, if Heinola is the one who moves but it's great that the Jets finally have some depth on defense. There's a lot of years where the team scraped the barrel, with the Julian Melchiori types, or having to go outside the organization for guys like Brian Strait who were in the same position as Chisholm on the depth chart. It's actually quite remarkable how quickly the Jets have gone from Enstrom/Morrissey as #1 LD to Chiarot, Stuart types in the top 4, to having a full stable of prospects.
Heinola's development has been caught somewhere between the urge to rush him, like Morrissey, though Josh got a full year to work things out, and had to step up with Jacob Trouba holding out, and the later maturity of Stanley and Samberg. I think the outside pressure has affected his development, as well as lost time from Covid.
Lundmark is right on schedule to join the team at a time when extending De Melo might not be financially prudent.
I feel like Chevy has drafted to fill holes, with regards to fluency of free agency, and allowed his young players to mature to the right age to be able to compete. The gap on the right side that Schmidt needed to fill would be because the Jets missed on picks Luke Green and Jack Glover, and Jonathan Kovacevic wasn't deemed ready. On the left side I think Samberg playing an extra year of college probably threw off the certainty management had on him, if he had played two full seasons on the Moose instead of 32 career professional games, hard to say that Chevy would have still acquired Dillon.
Last edited: