Player Discussion: Heinola Thread

[surixon]

Garrett’s stats say lots of things like Perfetti is a 3rd liner so we got to talk what he says with a grain of salt.

True. But I was more talking microstats then what the all encompassing models predict.

 

[LowLefty]

According to Garrett's microstats on transition he's actually been pretty good. Perhaps we let many if his highly visible defensive miscues overshadow the other things in his game.

Yes, we probably do - because they are highly visible defensive miscues - and he's a defenseman.

 

[ecolad]

The problem is Heinolas resume has shown practically nothing of that. I understand the problem of him getting not enough run of games to really establish that, but with what the Jets have on D currently and the position we are in (having a real shot of doing some damage in the playoffs) it's just not realistic to believe he is going to get what he needs in this org in the near future.

It might end up being a moment we look back on with regret, but at this time I truly believe it's best for both Ville and the team to look at moving

This entire narrative is founded on the premise that inserting Ville into the lineup, even on a sheltered basis,will not only not help the team to win, but worse, will lead to the team losing, and jeopardize their playoff chances. Wouldn`t we be well served to have actual evidence that such is the case , in games where the team is playing with good intensity and structure, before drawing this conclusion?

We have seen Ville in 2 games recently. In the first against Montreal he was terrible but the entire team played their worst, most chaotic game this year. In the second against Toronto , the team played quite well with better structure. Toronto however played well defensively and it was difficult for us to generate offence, with Ville playing tentatively and cautiously for the most part. He was paired with a vet D (Schmidt) who did not have one of his better games, and played behind a newly formed, and dare I say ill-conceived, 3rd line that had a very bad day overall.
So Ville found it difficult to add much value offensively but he also didn`t make horrible costly defensive mistakes like some others. His actual corsi numbers showed remarkably well.And yet coach made a decision to bench him for nearly all the 3rd period. And most posters have villified (no pun intended) him and concluded that he should never get opportunity to play again.

Question remains - are we viewing his performance through a reasonable lens, or ,are we rushing to judgment on this guy?

 

[Jet]

This entire narrative is founded on the premise that inserting Ville into the lineup, even on a sheltered basis,will not only not help the team to win, but worse, will lead to the team losing, and jeopardize their playoff chances. Wouldn`t we be well served to have actual evidence that such is the case , in games where the team is playing with good intensity and structure, before drawing this conclusion?

We have seen Ville in 2 games recently. In the first against Montreal he was terrible but the entire team played their worst, most chaotic game this year. In the second against Toronto , the team played quite well with better structure. Toronto however played well defensively and it was difficult for us to generate offence, with Ville playing tentatively and cautiously for the most part. He was paired with a vet D (Schmidt) who did not have one of his better games, and played behind a newly formed, and dare I say ill-conceived, 3rd line that had a very bad day overall.
So Ville found it difficult to add much value offensively but he also didn`t make horrible costly defensive mistakes like some others. His actual corsi numbers showed remarkably well.And yet coach made a decision to bench him for nearly all the 3rd period. And most posters have villified (no pun intended) him and concluded that he should never get opportunity to play again.

Question remains - are we viewing his performance through a reasonable lens, or ,are we rushing to judgment on this guy?

Personally, I'm viewing it in a way that the coaching staff and management is, as that's what's more likely to drive what happening next.

My own opinion is you run with Ville a bit longer as we saw encouraging growth in his last string of games. Problem is, I think he gets pushed back down as soon as Samberg and Stan are gtg.

 

[LowLefty]

Personally, I'm viewing it in a way that the coaching staff and management is, as that's what's more likely to drive what happening next.

My own opinion is you run with Ville a bit longer as we saw encouraging growth in his last string of games. Problem is, I think he gets pushed back down as soon as Samberg and Stan are gtg.

I think you're viewing it reasonably -
Ville could very well end up in the lineup at some point
What we need to understand is that we have other young players ahead of him and I doubt very much that the org has seen anything in his game, at the NHL level, that suggests they fast track Ville over what they already have in the lineup or bullpen. Especially when they are trying to win now.

His best opportunities are likely coming when the Jets decide what they are going to do with Smitty and his contract - or even Pionk.
And that's offseason / next year at the earliest (IMO) - unless he's traded.

 

[Thechozen1]

Time to use Heinola as a trade chip in a package to get something impactful for the roster right now. He’s just stagnating here and I don’t see him realizing his potential on this team.

 

[ecolad]

I think you're viewing it reasonably -
Ville could very well end up in the lineup at some point
What we need to understand is that we have other young players ahead of him and I doubt very much that the org has seen anything in his game, at the NHL level, that suggests they fast track Ville over what they already have in the lineup or bullpen. Especially when they are trying to win now.

His best opportunities are likely coming when the Jets decide what they are going to do with Smitty and his contract - or even Pionk.
And that's offseason / next year at the earliest (IMO) - unless he's traded.

Here`s the way I look at this. While I want to be optimistic about the team`s chances to go deep into the playoffs, I don`t believe that the current roster of D are constructed to succeed against the style of hockey they will face by teams relying on quickness/speed. Some of these teams will play trap hockey designed to create turnovers/mistakes and then counter quickly by rush, while others will simply dump and relentlessly forecheck. We have already noted this problem in games this year. To counter this, we will need to have at least some D that can make puck retrievals and transitions - Stanley and Samberg simply do not possess these qualities. Now,it is admittedly getting late in the season but it somehow doesn`t seem prudent to simply stop developing players like Heinola ,or Chisholm. Give them opportunity to play, perhaps on a 7 man D rotation, in a sheltered role.Whether either can show enough to actually "make" this team better in this coming playoffs is a damn good question but the potential rewards surely make the effort worthwhile.

And neither should be traded until such time as we know what we really have in them.

 

[Adam da bomb]

Here`s the way I look at this. While I want to be optimistic about the team`s chances to go deep into the playoffs, I don`t believe that the current roster of D are constructed to succeed against the style of hockey they will face by teams relying on quickness/speed. Some of these teams will play trap hockey designed to create turnovers/mistakes and then counter quickly by rush, while others will simply dump and relentlessly forecheck. We have already noted this problem in games this year. To counter this, we will need to have at least some D that can make puck retrievals and transitions - Stanley and Samberg simply do not possess these qualities. Now,it is admittedly getting late in the season but it somehow doesn`t seem prudent to simply stop developing players like Heinola ,or Chisholm. Give them opportunity to play, perhaps on a 7 man D rotation, in a sheltered role.Whether either can show enough to actually "make" this team better in this coming playoffs is a damn good question but the potential rewards surely make the effort worthwhile.

And neither should be traded until such time as we know what we really have in them.

I think Samberg will handle the physicality better than Heinola that comes from teams dumping. We have puck movers like Schmidt, Pionk, Morrissey, we have less what Samberg brings.

 

[KingBogo]

Here`s the way I look at this. While I want to be optimistic about the team`s chances to go deep into the playoffs, I don`t believe that the current roster of D are constructed to succeed against the style of hockey they will face by teams relying on quickness/speed. Some of these teams will play trap hockey designed to create turnovers/mistakes and then counter quickly by rush, while others will simply dump and relentlessly forecheck. We have already noted this problem in games this year. To counter this, we will need to have at least some D that can make puck retrievals and transitions - Stanley and Samberg simply do not possess these qualities. Now,it is admittedly getting late in the season but it somehow doesn`t seem prudent to simply stop developing players like Heinola ,or Chisholm. Give them opportunity to play, perhaps on a 7 man D rotation, in a sheltered role.Whether either can show enough to actually "make" this team better in this coming playoffs is a damn good question but the potential rewards surely make the effort worthwhile.

And neither should be traded until such time as we know what we really have in them.

I'm not sure how Heinola would stand up to a heavy chip and chase team? There will be times where he can avoid contact, but there will be several times a game where he will get hit very hard, by big wingers and then will have to be able to maintain possession.

 

[GaryPoppins]

wonder what happens when healthy

morrissey-demelo stay together
id go schmidt-dillon - those two rate quite well together the last 2 years. pionk with dillon has just rated too poor defensively for my taste. and the offense doesn't make up for it. im all around kinda over watching pionk try and defend in a top-4 role.

ill admit though: this was my top-4 in the summer. and call it bias or whatever, but think this is the best combo of our top-2 pairings we've iced so far.

samberg although has struggled this year does have experience and chemistry with heinola. heinola-pionk might be to chaotic in our own zone although it would only be 3rd pair so least-consequential of the 3 pairings. Pionk likely stays in the line-up because vet and $$$.

then there's stanley who is probably another 7-10 days away from skating (based on 2 week time period on Dec 29th). he's only played a few games, but his recent games i thought he was solid after a slower start.

I think Samberg has played decently well. He’s learning and it’s his first year but I’d say he’s trending decently? Not everyone enters the league and sets it on fire. I have confidence he will round out well.

 

[Jet]

I'm not sure how Heinola would stand up to a heavy chip and chase team? There will be times where he can avoid contact, but there will be several times a game where he will get hit very hard, by big wingers and then will have to be able to maintain possession.

Yeah if he's struggling wth the game at regular season level he's going to get obliterated when the playoffs start.

 

[raideralex99]

The problem is Heinolas resume has shown practically nothing of that. I understand the problem of him getting not enough run of games to really establish that, but with what the Jets have on D currently and the position we are in (having a real shot of doing some damage in the playoffs) it's just not realistic to believe he is going to get what he needs in this org in the near future.

It might end up being a moment we look back on with regret, but at this time I truly believe it's best for both Ville and the team to look at moving him.

I agree 100% if Jets were bottom feeders they would be playing Heinola more and getting him the experience he needs. Since Stanley and Samberg are ahead of him in the depth chart ... the Jets cannot afford to give him more playing time. If Heinola was on the Coyotes or Sharks or Ducks he would probably see plenty of ice time.
This reminds a little bit of the Expos. The big majors teams basically used the Expos as a farm team. The expos would give the rookies MLB experience and once the became good the big league teams would take them and give the expos more draft picks and prospects.
And when they finally got a winning team World Series favorites ... the players went on strike and MLB cancelled the season.

 

[snowkiddin]

It’s really quite a shame that Heinola wasn’t able to get a full season of games when Charlie Huddy was still here. I’m sure Huddy would’ve been able to develop him into a Norris Trophy candidate.

 

[Gabe Kupari]

I hoped ville would take his chance and run with it. He hasn't. He should be behind Stan and Samberg. He's trade bait now. Fresh start for ville (not sure it makes a diff) (needs to play and nightly)

 

[voyageur]

Yeah if he's struggling wth the game at regular season level he's going to get obliterated when the playoffs start.

I think it depends on how he is used.

There's a tale of two different results from Ville Heinola's game this year:

At home (4 games) 0g 1a, +2

On the road (6 games) 0g 0a, -7

Protected he can still be effective, if either of our top two d-men, who I consider Morrissey and Pionk, were injured, I think that Ville would be the only suitable player to replace their offensive output, potentially.

 

[mondo3]

Are people forgetting that Samberg is 2 years older than Heinola?

 

[Adam da bomb]

Are people forgetting that Samberg is 2 years older than Heinola?

I did forget that. That means he has more time to break into the regular line up ahead of him.

 

[Channelcat]

It’s really quite a shame that Heinola wasn’t able to get a full season of games when Charlie Huddy was still here. I’m sure Huddy would’ve been able to develop him into a Norris Trophy candidate.

 

[Howard Chuck]

I’ve always had very high hopes for Ville, and I still think he can eventually be a fist pairing dman. I also realize that the coaches know much more than I do about all things we don’t get to see and how they plan for the future of the team.

I still think with a good stretch of games, he could replace one of our higher paid dmen and be at least as good, and as he gets older, better.

In the mean time I’ll have to accept that the org knows best. It will be a shame to see him blossom somewhere else though.

 

[BoneDocUK]

I’ve always had very high hopes for Ville, and I still think he can eventually be a fist pairing dman. I also realize that the coaches know much more than I do about all things we don’t get to see and how they plan for the future of the team.

I still think with a good stretch of games, he could replace one of our higher paid dmen and be at least as good, and as he gets older, better.

In the mean time I’ll have to accept that the org knows best. It will be a shame to see him blossom somewhere else though.

I'm with you -- but not sure I agree with the bolded. Ville broke into the lineup with huge confidence, a fair few warts, and never quite made it back in. He's still young but his development here has been scattered and piecemeal and honestly I think his window for making it as an everyday NHL player is now small.

He needs to be moved if he's going to get there. I have no idea whether or not he might have worked harder on X, Y or Z to cement his place in the lineup, but the acquisition of Schmidt made that a long shot, and I don't think there's any way that he was going to push out Stanley however poorly he played.

So that's that, I suspect. I'd hoped for more from Ville, but also don't think the org has covered themselves with glory here. His dev path was markedly different and less likely to bring results than that of Stanley, who I think is what he is and has not deserved by his play the white glove treatment he's had.

Hopefully they get something useful back, but his trade value has been pretty much pooched by this point, I'd expect.

 

[LowLefty]

I'm with you -- but not sure I agree with the bolded. Ville broke into the lineup with huge confidence, a fair few warts, and never quite made it back in. He's still young but his development here has been scattered and piecemeal and honestly I think his window for making it as an everyday NHL player is now small.

He needs to be moved if he's going to get there. I have no idea whether or not he might have worked harder on X, Y or Z to cement his place in the lineup, but the acquisition of Schmidt made that a long shot, and I don't think there's any way that he was going to push out Stanley however poorly he played.

So that's that, I suspect. I'd hoped for more from Ville, but also don't think the org has covered themselves with glory here. His dev path was markedly different and less likely to bring results than that of Stanley, who I think is what he is and has not deserved by his play the white glove treatment he's had.

Hopefully they get something useful back, but his trade value has been pretty much pooched by this point, I'd expect.

Stan and Ville's development paths were never intended to run in tandem - they are completely different players that having pretty much nothing in common.
Stan and Samberg are fighting for that physical spot in the line up that the Jets want - Ville is not going to bring what either of these two can bring.
Ville's opportunities are more in sync with what players like Smitty bring - and that timeline is likely more inline with next season.

Why do we continue to compare the development paths of two completely different players who fill different needs? One is not impacting the other unless we want to ignore the balance the org is looking for on the blue line - or - the the best opportunities for both in regard to the role they play and the player they might replace.

Ville (and his agent), need to be patient - he has a great opportunity next season (IMO) to replace a player, and a role, that suits his skill set.
I don't understand why there should be an expectation that this org should prioritize his development (TY) over what the org feels are the needs of this club as they make a run for a solid playoff spot.

It's already been confirmed by this fan base, that he needs more time to grow to a point where he is helping us win, consistently - more games, more time, more opportunity. Is that the priority TY?

 

[surixon]

Stan and Ville's development paths were never intended to run in tandem - they are completely different players that having pretty much nothing in common.
Stan and Samberg are fighting for that physical spot in the line up that the Jets want - Ville is not going to bring what either of these two can bring.
Ville's opportunities are more in sync with what players like Smitty bring - and that timeline is likely more inline with next season.

Why do we continue to compare the development paths of two completely different players who fill different needs? One is not impacting the other unless we want to ignore the balance the org is looking for on the blue line - or - the the best opportunities for both in regard to the role they play and the player they might replace.

Ville (and his agent), need to be patient - he has a great opportunity next season (IMO) to replace a player, and a role, that suits his skill set.
I don't understand why there should be an expectation that this org should prioritize his development (TY) over what the org feels are the needs of this club as they make a run for a solid playoff spot.

It's already been confirmed by this fan base, that he needs more time to grow to a point where he is helping us win, consistently - more games, more time, more opportunity. Is that the priority TY?

Well to be fair we think there will be a spot for him next year. They may not move or be able to move Schmidt/Pionk. He very well could be in the exact same spot as this year.

 

[LowLefty]

Well to be fair we think there will be a spot for him next year. They may not move or be able to move Schmidt/Pionk. He very well could be in the exact same spot as this year.

I agree that if he is to get into the lineup, it will be next year.

 

[KingBogo]

Well to be fair we think there will be a spot for him next year. They may not move or be able to move Schmidt/Pionk. He very well could be in the exact same spot as this year.

There is always a way to move players. Pionk has positive value and would probably get scooped up pretty quick. He gets chronically under valued around here. Schmidt, would be a bit tougher, but likely still with a slight positive. If Chevy is going to try and sign is upcoming UFAs we will need to shed some salary anyways.

 

[BoneDocUK]

Stan and Ville's development paths were never intended to run in tandem - they are completely different players that having pretty much nothing in common.
Stan and Samberg are fighting for that physical spot in the line up that the Jets want - Ville is not going to bring what either of these two can bring.
Ville's opportunities are more in sync with what players like Smitty bring - and that timeline is likely more inline with next season.

Why do we continue to compare the development paths of two completely different players who fill different needs? One is not impacting the other unless we want to ignore the balance the org is looking for on the blue line - or - the the best opportunities for both in regard to the role they play and the player they might replace.

Ville (and his agent), need to be patient - he has a great opportunity next season (IMO) to replace a player, and a role, that suits his skill set.
I don't understand why there should be an expectation that this org should prioritize his development (TY) over what the org feels are the needs of this club as they make a run for a solid playoff spot.

It's already been confirmed by this fan base, that he needs more time to grow to a point where he is helping us win, consistently - more games, more time, more opportunity. Is that the priority TY?

IDK. We were told all preseason about the "competition on the blue line" and how exciting it would be to have an environment in which young players -- because it was only ever going to be the prospects who were competing for that lone spot -- would be going all out to secure 6th and last spot.

We have also heard time and time again that the org is "committed to / invested in" the career of Logan Stanley, suggesting that barring injury he had the 6th spot locked up, leaving 7th D and PB.

Based on that competition for the 6th spot narrative, what evidence do we have that the org seeks blueline balance and has specific roles in mind for prospects in the lengthening queue that is the Jets / Moose blueline? It seems to be that the roles have been set for a while, with Stan as the preferred 6th D , perhaps in some sort of rotation with Samberg, and Capo doing whatever he's doing as a PG plugin.

I don't see that changing this season, which makes perfect sense as they near the stretch looking to solidify the roster and get it playoff ready. And I'm not sure why it would change next season, with Schmidt and Pionk still under contract and neither an easy trade without the Jets retaining, which they seem loathe to do.

Maybe you're right, and the org has a master plan of succession read to roll out in which ripening prospects like Gawanke, Lundmark, Chisholm, Heinola and Samberg will slot right in and replace pricy contracts who are aging out. But it isn't clear how those timelines will add up, and it ignores factors like management's desire to save face over expensive picks or contracts that they are going to want to play to justify the cost of.

How many players has Chevy paid significant cash for, and then looked to trade or even buy out? How much luck will he have with Schmidt or Pionk given that he was ready to let the team's steadiest and most versatile defender in DeMelo walk in the ED?

I think this org does a lot right -- I'm not sure it's done a great job in managing the dev of its young D corps, or in scouting high-value D to bring in as insurance. There's a laundry list of crap D brought in when Stanley and even Samberg might have contributed -- we all remember them, or try to blot them out.

I have no idea at this point whether Heinola will ever be a useful player at the NHL level -- and I'm not sure the Jets do either. But if he doesn't get there, and that failure can be partly chalked up to his spotty usage and long spells not playing over the past three years, that's an expensive miss, and would make the 2nd bust of a first-round pick in a few years, for a team that needs to nail its 1st-rounders.

And that's kind of the main point for me as a fan -- I want our picks to prosper and make a difference as they develop. I'd love it if Stan came back and dominated and pushed out another, bigger contract from our top 6. We're going to need players on ELCs to push on with the big signings coming up. But I don't see a path for many of our D prospects as things stand, and that includes interesting players like Lundmark and Chisholm, or even Gawkanke, who's had no shot in the NHL yet and is now a waiver risk.

So yeah, maybe next year, or the year after. But also maybe not.

Anyhoo, essay over.