Half way Norris vote

[WetcoastOrca]

I think the order right now is:
Karlsson
Dahlin
Makar/Morrissey

 

[Chips]

Is it me, or does this seem like kind of a weak year for the Norris? I feel like we would normally see someone more visibly challenging Karlsson's offensive dominance, kind of like Makar and Josi last season. No shade to Dahlin and Morrisey, but they aren't having what I would normally think of as the kind of season that wins a Norris.

Hard to tell what the new standard is. Karlssons going crazy offensively, and there’s still another few defenseman putting up less but still a lot of points and rock solid defense

IMO Fox isn’t getting enough love, not the front runner but I keep seeing people literally just using points to compare Dmen this year lol. He’s easily the best of the pack defensively

Makar isn’t a front runner but he’s certainly close enough to the pack that a strong second half (and or a slower second half for some of the other guys) and he can be solidly in the mix by the end of the season. He’s still playing solid defense while his team is trying to survive and win low scoring games, and can still offensively go off on the powerplay. Huge reason his team is in the playoff race still and that’s exactly the kind of storyline that will work for him if he heats up.



As others have said playoffs or contention, some sort of storyline or context usually some voters want to consider. Karlsson does have an interesting comeback storyline tho

Other voters do more and more factor analytics and or emphasize defense which is a big reason Makar squeaked out a win over Josi IMO. I think maybe part of why the defensive guys aren’t getting much attention is it’s just now getting to the point where the stat nerds think there’s enough sample size to actually start drawing some solid conclusions.

 

[SwedishFire]

It's only half.

But the upper half.

 

[Ben White]

Good article
2022-23 Norris Trophy Tracker

 

[TruePowerSlave]

Good article
2022-23 Norris Trophy Tracker

Hamilton over Makar is quite something.

Makar leads the league in ice-time, plays on the teams shutdown pairing, 2nd in PK time and outscores Dougie on a team that is struggling offensively.

 

[Buck Naked]

Hamilton over Makar is quite something.

Makar leads the league in ice-time, plays on the teams shutdown pairing, 2nd in PK time and outscores Dougie on a team that is struggling offensively.

Is it really though? Ice-time don't give you the Norris. Avs PK is far from good. He's been an amazing PP-player this year, no doubt. But it's also very obvious that he's struggling 5v5 without the stacked roster of last year.

5v5 Points
Makar: 11
Hamilton: 15

GF%
Makar: 52.94
Hamilton: 58.33

xGF%
Makar: 55.00
Hamilton: 58.96

HDCF
Makar: 53.24
Hamilton: 60.98

 

[TruePowerSlave]

Is it really though? Ice-time don't give you the Norris. Avs PK is far from good. He's been an amazing PP-player this year, no doubt. But it's also very obvious that he's struggling 5v5 without the stacked roster of last year.

5v5 Points
Makar: 11
Hamilton: 15

GF%
Makar: 52.94
Hamilton: 58.33

xGF%
Makar: 55.00
Hamilton: 58.96

HDCF
Makar: 53.24
Hamilton: 60.98

The roles should make a difference. Makar is asked to be the teams offense from the blueline and the shutdown Dman at the same time. He still outscores Hamilton and is involved in a higher percentage of their teams goals.

The Avs in general have basically had one line that can score this season and are struggling to get goals which also affects Makar's numbers, he is still 5th among Dmen.

 

[Buck Naked]

The roles should make a difference. Makar is asked to be the teams offense from the blueline and the shutdown Dman at the same time. He still outscores Hamilton and is involved in a higher percentage of their teams goals.

The Avs in general have basically had one line that can score this season and are struggling to get goals which also affects Makar's numbers, he is still 5th among Dmen.

Output is what makes the difference. How well do you do things. Plenty of players are asked to play huge roles in their teams, yet it only matters if they perform to the task. I think it's pretty safe to say that Makar's been doing a great job with all the injuries on the Avs, but after last season I think many expected more than what he's shown so far, I mean, he was supposed to be the second coming of Orr. Erik Karlsson, for example, has through his whole career being asked to be the number one player on his team. Asked to carry his team to and through the playoffs while playing with inferior teammates. When he failed he was heavily criticized and people tried to poke holes in his game and say that he's not good enough to carry a team. Makar can at least enjoy the fact that he's playing on a pairing with Toews and with a superstar like Rantanen on his team and PP, a luxury Karlsson never had. Yet, Makar is not asked to carry the Avs to the playoffs. No one is laughing at his 5v5 performance. Why does he get that benefit?

Makar gotta step it up 5v5 if he wants to hang with the best this season. Right now there's 31 dmen with more points than him. Some of them named Kaiden Guhle, Adam Larsson, and Olli Maatta. If he's not good enough to separate himself from these players offensively 5v5, even with the injuries, I don't think he should be considered for the Norris.

We'll see what happens though. Wouldn't be surprised if he starts tearing it up as soon as the Avs are healthy again.

 

[TruePowerSlave]

Output is what makes the difference. How well do you do things. Plenty of players are asked to play huge roles in their teams, yet it only matters if they perform to the task. I think it's pretty safe to say that Makar's been doing a great job with all the injuries on the Avs, but after last season I think many expected more than what he's shown so far, I mean, he was supposed to be the second coming of Orr. Erik Karlsson, for example, has through his whole career being asked to be the number one player on his team. Asked to carry his team to and through the playoffs while playing with inferior teammates. When he failed he was heavily criticized and people tried to poke holes in his game and say that he's not good enough to carry a team. Makar can at least enjoy the fact that he's playing on a pairing with Toews and with a superstar like Rantanen on his team and PP, a luxury Karlsson never had. Yet, Makar is not asked to carry the Avs to the playoffs. No one is laughing at his 5v5 performance. Why does he get that benefit?

Makar gotta step it up 5v5 if he wants to hang with the best this season. Right now there's 31 dmen with more points than him. Some of them named Kaiden Guhle, Adam Larsson, and Olli Maatta. If he's not good enough to separate himself from these players offensively 5v5, even with the injuries, I don't think he should be considered for the Norris.

We'll see what happens though. Wouldn't be surprised if he starts tearing it up as soon as the Avs are healthy again.

He is basically PPG on a bottom 10 offense while also being on the Avs shutdown pairing. Logs the most minutes in the league and goes against the top lines. The expectations are out of control if that is considered a dissapointment.

 

[Video Nasty]

It really depends on how Karlsson finishes the second half and what’s going on in voters minds by the end of the season. Obvious I know, but people are fickle and for the bigger awards, they vote with different criteria each season.

1. If he tops 100 points cleanly, say in that 105-110 range, and does so on a team that is clearly below average on offense even with his efforts and a bottom five team period, it would be a head scratcher if he doesn’t win this. Particularly since he also have the attractive storyline of an epic comeback attached to his case.

104 points gets him inside the top 10 for most points scored by a defenseman in a single season. The 9 seasons ahead of him are done by Orr and Coffey, 5x and 4x respectively.

How can that kind of abnormal production not be recognized? San Jose is firmly a non-playoff team, but we do have a recent winner from a non-playoff team (Fox).

2. Dahlin obviously is in the midst of his breakout season and it really helps that though Buffalo is out of playoff position at the midway point (they have games in hand on most teams ahead of them, but are 10th in points percentage) could contend for that #8 spot in the East. Pair 90-95 points with potentially helping snap an 11 season playoffs drought and he’s going to get a ton of votes.

3. And we always have to factor in the love affair writers have with Makar. He will get a ton of love for manning an injury riddled Avalanche squad even if he is 20-25 points behind Karlsson.

The final result probably going to be as contentious as last season.

 

[Buck Naked]

He is basically PPG on a bottom 10 offense while also being on the Avs shutdown pairing. Logs the most minutes in the league and goes against the top lines. The expectations are out of control if that is considered a dissapointment.

I'm saying his 5v5 game is disappointing. Wouldn't you agree?

Why shouldn't there be extremely high expectations on Makar? Avs fans, and many others, claimed he was better than McDavid a few months ago. Called him generational and the best D since Orr. I think it's fair to expect better 5v5 scoring than Adam Larsson from a Dman of that supposed caliber?

 

[Regal]

I'm saying his 5v5 game is disappointing. Wouldn't you agree?

Why shouldn't there be extremely high expectations on Makar? Avs fans, and many others, claimed he was better than McDavid a few months ago. Called him generational and the best D since Orr. I think it's fair to expect better 5v5 scoring than Adam Larsson from a Dman of that supposed caliber?

I mean, Adam Larsson has 1 fewer 5v5 point than Josi. He’s having a disproportionately productive 5v5 season because there’s a lot of 5v5 variance among defensemen. It’s a disappointing season for Makar in that respect because in previous years he was one of the very few defensemen who could produce at a high rate 5v5 in a way that wasn’t based on variance or team dependent, but Makar shouldn’t be compared to himself when it comes to the Norris, and his lack of production is overblown compared to the majority of defensemen. Hamilton has 4 more 5v5 points. Makar has still been good defensively, great in transition, improved his team offensively 5v5 while on the ice and scored at a good clip on the PP.

 

[Buck Naked]

I mean, Adam Larsson has 1 fewer 5v5 point than Josi. He’s having a disproportionately productive 5v5 season because there’s a lot of 5v5 variance among defensemen. It’s a disappointing season for Makar in that respect because in previous years he was one of the very few defensemen who could produce at a high rate 5v5 in a way that wasn’t based on variance or team dependent, but Makar shouldn’t be compared to himself when it comes to the Norris, and his lack of production is overblown compared to the majority of defensemen. Hamilton has 4 more 5v5 points. Makar has still been good defensively, great in transition, improved his team offensively 5v5 while on the ice and scored at a good clip on the PP.

So when others produce it's variance and when Makar does it it's not? Sure, he's been good defensively, great in transition, and improved his team to be the 31st (rather than the 32nd?) team in 5v5 scoring, and been great on the PP. I won't argue that. Still don't think his performance this year warrants any kind of mention in the Norris discussion based on what happened so far this season. Second half might be completely different and he will be standing there as a winner in the end. That's beside the point though.

 

[Karl Eriksson]

Karlsson runaway

 

[rangersfansince08]

Karlsson

 

[KapG]

Dahlin. He’s not that many points behind karlsson and he plays better everywhere else.

I see dahlin still isn’t getting the respect he deserves in this thread. Cool stuff

 

[KapG]

Is it me, or does this seem like kind of a weak year for the Norris? I feel like we would normally see someone more visibly challenging Karlsson's offensive dominance, kind of like Makar and Josi last season. No shade to Dahlin and Morrisey, but they aren't having what I would normally think of as the kind of season that wins a Norris.

Lol what in the actual f***?

 

[The S5]

Fox is the best all around D. He's a better defender than any others listed and is around PPG.
But, lets be real, the Norris is about points, defense be damned.

 

[Raspewtin]

Dahlin has been crazy this season, voted for him but with Fox a close 2nd

Is it me, or does this seem like kind of a weak year for the Norris? I feel like we would normally see someone more visibly challenging Karlsson's offensive dominance, kind of like Makar and Josi last season. No shade to Dahlin and Morrisey, but they aren't having what I would normally think of as the kind of season that wins a Norris.

I can't in any good concious agree with this when there were several norris winners in living memory with less than 60 points lol

 

[tarheelhockey]

I can't in any good concious agree with this when there were several norris winners in living memory with less than 60 points lol

The only ones in recent memory are Doughty and Chara (weak seasons). Before that it’s DPE guys when 60 points was big for a defenseman.

 

[The Crypto Guy]

INSANE, that fox isn't in the top 3. But he will when the voting comes out.

 

[Zero Requiem]

If Karlsson ends up with 100+ points I think he takes it, otherwise, it probably goes to Dahlin. Don't think any other defenseman has a chance of winning it at this point.

 

[Sabresruletheschool]

So what if Dahlin also finishes with 100+ points or is just a couple points behind Karlsson at the end of the season? Karlsson is 9 points ahead with three games in hand. Dahlin could catch right back up with those three games.

 

[Rangerfan4life90]

If Karlsson ends up with 100+ points I think he takes it, otherwise, it probably goes to Dahlin. Don't think any other defenseman has a chance of winning it at this point.

Fox more than has a chance of winning it. At this point, he's damn near favorited.

Dahlin and Karlsson are in the mix, though. If Karlsson does get 100 points this year and no other d-man does, he probably gets it.

 

[WetcoastOrca]

If Karlsson ends up with 100+ points I think he takes it, otherwise, it probably goes to Dahlin. Don't think any other defenseman has a chance of winning it at this point.

Agreed. It's a two horse race between Karlsson and Dahlin at this point.
Then Makar in third.