Speculation: Habs finish 28th and bottom 5 in 24-25 season

[morhilane]

His model also had the Habs finishing 31st last season. The models seems not to like the Habs very much lol. I expect another small increase from last year to happen again. I haven't set my official prediction but now I'm at 84.5 over/under

It's based on advanced stats and has zero consideration for still improving players.

 

[Lockin17]

let's tank on last time and get

#6 : Ivan Ryabkin.
CGY : #14 : Luka Radivojevic
Then the rebuild is over

 

[Zilo44]

Let’s hope we finish higher than that. It would also help sell future UFAs that we are an actual up and coming team

 

[Guess]

We'll only truly be able to compete in 2026-27, by which time price's contract is off the books and Gallagher and Anderson are probably offloaded, Demidov's already had a full season in the NHL and a lot of our prospects have made the jump and acclimated themselves.

 

[Archijerej]

If we were contenders I’d agree with you. But we’re not. We’re not making the playoffs. The standings don’t matter as much as player progression.

Nobody's saying about contending. However, the team goals for next season are no longer entirely divorced from the standings and we should adjust our strategy accordingly.

Unless of course everything we've heard from the management recently is bullshit.

Look at what happened with CC and Slaf when they played with better players. Their points went up. Their play improved.

It’s one thing to have Beck on the 3rd learning D but Roy’s an offensive player. Why not let him play on the second? I’d even give him some shifts on the first.

Caufield and Slafkovsky were different caliber of prospects. Roy not being ready risks not only his development, but that of Dach and Newhook as well. Not to mention the stated team goals.

 

[McGees]

I disagree with this.

https://x.com/i/web/status/1809252496851738920

 

[RationalExpectations]

I think still a lot will happen until the season starts. Some important RFAs still unsigned, many teams with a lot of cap space…

As of now, this is a lot about organic growth for the Habs so let s see if the younger players take a step forward.

In terms of tiering rightnow I have the following :

Tank : SJS

Rebuild : CHI, ANA, MTL, CBJ, PHI

Bubble playoffs : OTT, SEA, CGY, BUF (should be better but well…), MIN, PIT, DET, STL, NYI, WSH, WPG, CAR (I think losing players and ageing core will hurt them but their system seems bullet proof ), LAK, UTA

Contenders : NJD, VGK, TBL, NSH, COL, DAL, NYR, BOS TOR FLA EDM VAN.

Without any material improvement this should be a bottom 6 team again

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

Nobody's saying about contending. However, the team goals for next season are no longer entirely divorced from the standings and we should adjust our strategy accordingly.

Unless of course everything we've heard from the management recently is bullshit.

I brought up contending, I didn’t say anyone else did. And I brought it up to say we’re not there and our situation- and the way we should conduct ourselves- is different from a contender.

In that case I might even suggest trading Roy away for an experienced player. But as a rebuild team, I’d rather him than a vet developing in the top six.

Caufield and Slafkovsky were different caliber of prospects. Roy not being ready risks not only his development, but that of Dach and Newhook as well. Not to mention the stated team goals.

Who says he’s not ready? He was improving quite a bit as the season went on. He spent his time in the minors and didn’t jump in at 18 the way Slaf did.

If he struggles we can always make changes later but honestly, I think he’d be fine on the 2nd.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

As a sidenote,

It’s really nice to be able to have a debate as to whether or not we should use a great prospect or grab a vet to play on the second line. This is so vastly different from a “why did we make this stupid trade” or “why are we mismanaging things so badly” type discussions we’ve had here for so long.

Finally, we have an upcoming team where mgmt is working to build from the ground up and actively working to plug holes where they see issues.

Whether we should get a vet or not is a refreshing change of pace here given the context of where we’re at. So much better than “why did we have Desharnais on our first line?” type discussions.

 

[OB5]

Fact is, the Habs have done nothing to improve the roster that was bottom five last year, so why should it be any different this year? They're hoping every player takes a step forward and the collective improves to the point where they take the next step. It's plausible but improbable. Management said they want to be more competitive this year and are banking on the players they have to grow and take the next step. They tried to nab Marchessault and the summer is still relatively early so there is time for changes but as of today there is nothing to really grasp on to other than "vibes."

What's funny to me is that the media have all been like "this roster is going to be so different."

We'll see.

 

[Seven7]

but the French media told me they were going to battle for a playoff spot this year!

to be fair I am expecting another bottom 5 year, which would be ideal for the rebuild.

 

[Archijerej]

but the French media told me they were going to battle for a playoff spot this year!

That's a strange way to spell "the management".

 

[Archijerej]

Finally, we have an upcoming team where mgmt is working to build from the ground up and actively working to plug holes where they see issues.

Honestly, the constant reminders about how our management is oh so competent is slowly getting nauseating.

 

[Weltschmerz]

I think still a lot will happen until the season starts. Some important RFAs still unsigned, many teams with a lot of cap space…

As of now, this is a lot about organic growth for the Habs so let s see if the younger players take a step forward.

In terms of tiering rightnow I have the following :

Tank : SJS

Rebuild : CHI, ANA, MTL, CBJ, PHI

Bubble playoffs : OTT, SEA, CGY, BUF (should be better but well…), MIN, PIT, DET, STL, NYI, WSH, WPG, CAR (I think losing players and ageing core will hurt them but their system seems bullet proof ), LAK, UTA

Contenders : NJD, VGK, TBL, NSH, COL, DAL, NYR, BOS TOR FLA EDM VAN.

Without any material improvement this should be a bottom 6 team again

I get that everyone wants the flames to do well because of that pick, but don't see how they are a tier above the habs, they finished 5 points ahead and lost half of their defense, a top 6 center and their starting goalie.

 

[McGees]

Our core is all young. They will be better because they will all be better.
Plus Dach returning is huge.
At this point I would think we end up picking 7-10. If we actually want to see a bigger jump or sniff a wildcard spot, we need to trade for a legit top 6 player which is exactly what I think Hughes has been trying to do.

 

[Jaynki]

I think some of y'all forget the record number of 1 goal games they had last year. The team wasn't as bad as their record showed. With a healthy Dach and second half Slaf for the whole year, I expect and hope to see improvement.

I'm done with tanking, I want to see meaningful hockey again.

Not only this.

But around the 60 games mark

Primeau had a .500 record and Allen was 3-12 since november. You corrected Allen 3-12 to 7-8 (primeau stats) and we were 2 points from a wild card spot.

Obviously it doesnt work like this but trading Allen was an improvement by subtracting him.

Now, we have better goaltending, like you said record 1 goal games, healthy Dach, closer-to-prime Slaf and our entire core in fact, and if Hutson and Reinbacher/Mailloux are impact defenseman, we will improve by leaps and bounds.

 

[Non Player Canadiens]

Barring major injuries, no way we’re bottom-5 next season. In fact, I’m looking more in the 9-12 range.

i think Habs make the playoffs in that #8 spot. just a hunch

 

[Doublechin]

With the 7th pick in the 2025 draft the Montreal Canadiens select Michael Misa from Saginaw in the OHL

 

[RationalExpectations]

I get that everyone wants the flames to do well because of that pick, but don't see how they are a tier above the habs, they finished 5 points ahead and lost half of their defense, a top 6 center and their starting goalie.

This is true they lost a few guys but I am not sure Wolf can compensate Markstrom departure right away but for me they are not really in a rebuild phase with Weegar Andersson Kadri Sharangovich Huberdeau… I don t think they are great but I can t really consider them rebuilders at this stage I think.

 

[themilosh]

I disagree with this.

https://x.com/i/web/status/1809252496851738920

i'm completely fine with this finish, so long as CC/SUZ/Slaf score at a PPG pace, Dach plays 80games, and our young D steal the time away from the vets.
Hugo somehow offloads Gally and Andy for a reasonable sum.
Draft #1oa, get Demidov to start the 25/26 season and I'd say we're ready!!

 

[Rapala]

Nobody's saying about contending. However, the team goals for next season are no longer entirely divorced from the standings and we should adjust our strategy accordingly.

Unless of course everything we've heard from the management recently is bullshit.



Caufield and Slafkovsky were different caliber of prospects. Roy not being ready risks not only his development, but that of Dach and Newhook as well. Not to mention the stated team goals.

Yeah they talked up a storm on the optimism meter but I'm not sure how far we can get beyond just treading water as it stands.
Looking on paper and progression wise adding a Kirby Dach should give us a decent bump but he has to maintain it.
Monahan was really good for us early when Suzuki's line started a bit flat. We need the same from our second line next season.

 

[FLHabs]

Not only this.

But around the 60 games mark

Primeau had a .500 record and Allen was 3-12 since november. You corrected Allen 3-12 to 7-8 (primeau stats) and we were 2 points from a wild card spot.

Obviously it doesnt work like this but trading Allen was an improvement by subtracting him.

Now, we have better goaltending, like you said record 1 goal games, healthy Dach, closer-to-prime Slaf and our entire core in fact, and if Hutson and Reinbacher/Mailloux are impact defenseman, we will improve by leaps and bounds.

Completely forgot about the improved goaltender situation. I think the Habs will surprise lots of people next year. The guys are extremely focused as well and are ready for the next step of the rebuild.

 

[Wayfarer13]

Fact is, the Habs have done nothing to improve the roster that was bottom five last year, so why should it be any different this year? They're hoping every player takes a step forward and the collective improves to the point where they take the next step. It's plausible but improbable. Management said they want to be more competitive this year and are banking on the players they have to grow and take the next step. They tried to nab Marchessault and the summer is still relatively early so there is time for changes but as of today there is nothing to really grasp on to other than "vibes."

What's funny to me is that the media have all been like "this roster is going to be so different."

We'll see.

Don't have to have every player improve
The ones that don't improve maybe replaced by those coming up from behind
No guarantee but a reasonable expectation. No hurry to bring in outside help at this point.A reevaluation will be done after next season.The spectrum of success for next year us lottery pick to making the playoffs.

 

[HabbyGuy]

Honestly, the constant reminders about how our management is oh so competent is slowly getting nauseating.

Bring back Bergy!! This kumbaya shit has got to stop!

 

[Non Player Canadiens]

I disagree with this.

https://x.com/i/web/status/1809252496851738920

smh, the disrespect.