Speculation: Habs finish 28th and bottom 5 in 24-25 season

[MolleSon]

Like one poster said earlier in this thread, this is a year to see what we really have, an evaluation year. We already have a pretty good 1st line, good goaltending (we do not need more for now), a very young and promising defense corp that has 2 good vets and a good top 4 (Ghule) to lead a bunch of prospects that have everything to prove.

I'm more than willing to be patient. We're on the right track. Not looking at results as far as finishing 22-28 or 32 for now. Yes it would be nice to finish 22nd but its not mandatory imo.

On the other hand, I want to - at least - see the followings:

1) Improvment of PP and PK... PP at 17,5% is not enough, we need 22% at least. For me that is 1st a coach challenge, then a player's good execution... ; same for PK... Let's aim 80% (76,5%)
2) Dach and Newhook to play a full 82 games season. If Dach goes down again for a long period, that will certainly be a message that he's not our 2nd line center going further. This where I like the Hage draft;
3) Ice time for Roy and Beck (do not trade until we know whats going on with Dach), Hutson, Reinbacher and Mailloux at the NHL level. I want to see them play. We have nothing to lose, everything to win. This is an evaluation year...
4) A TDL trade with one of Armia or Dvorak or Savard. The 1st two should give all they have ie last year of contract. I'd be happy to pick up another 1st rd because I don't think Calgary will finish 11th or so.
5) A Draft trade to clear up the defense. After evaluation, it will be obvious who isn't part of the future.

I don't really care where we finish. As long as we are able to properly evaluate what we really have in those prospects and improve what we have to improve.

2025-26 and 2026-27 will be the big growth years in standings. 2024-2025 is our last year of waiting. Patience.

 

[Souker]

I don’t think the Habs, management or even ownership is going to accept a bottom 5 finish.
You have to remember that this is a business and there is a lot of politics and money on the line.
We’re deep into this reconstruction and we’re certainly at a point where the team needs to show some progress and start taking steps towards the playoffs even if it just means finishing outside of the bottom 10. There is a clear incentive for that at this point vs finishing at the very bottom again.
Hugo needs to sell to ownership that we on track and ownership will have to sell to sponsors and season ticket holders that we’re on track.
There is a reason Kent went on record to say that they wanna get an established top 6 winger . You can read between the lines that they want to see some form of progress record-wise this year.

 

[CHfan1]

It's pretty obvious that this was a mid free agency class and that to get deals done you needed to pay in term. Hughes and Gorton had a plan and decided the limit of term would be 2-3 years and I'm glad we have adults in the room who know when they need to walk away from a player because the money/term will become problematic.

If we had someone like that previously, we wouldn't be saddled with contracts like Gallagher because they would have moved him at the peak of his value rather than re-sign him to pay him for what he did, not what he will be.

What is baffling to me is that, in general, this is a smart fan base, yet they seem to be completely unable to understand that throwing money and term around on window-dressing this year is a bad idea especially when we are close to finally getting out from under the financial hamstringing done by Bergevin.

Hughes said they didn't want to block the future of the organization with long term FA contracts.. it's one thing if Sam Reinhart was out there, but going long term on the Debrusk and Marchessault of the world is just insanity.

It's just FOMO, every year people want the Habs to do something, it doesn't even have to be good, it just has to be something.

Agreed. Signing unrestricted free agents on July 1st has more often than not been fool’s gold, especially long-term deals. I expect this past opening day of free agency will disappoint in the long run as well. In today’s NHL where teams can sign players a year before they hit the market the majority of the top end players get signed before they hit the open market, leaving July 1st with mid-level players who get top dollar and long term deals.

For posters that wanted to sign some of these UFA’s I wonder which ones, that actually move the needle, they would have signed at the same deal or to entice them to come to Montreal, who is not in a position to win, would have give an extra year of term to.

 

[Sorinth]

I don’t think the Habs, management or even ownership is going to accept a bottom 5 finish.
You have to remember that this is a business and there is a lot of politics and money on the line.
We’re deep into this reconstruction and we’re certainly at a point where the team needs to show some progress and start taking steps towards the playoffs even if it just means finishing outside of the bottom 10. There is a clear incentive for that at this point vs finishing at the very bottom again.
Hugo needs to sell to ownership that we on track and ownership will have to sell to sponsors and season ticket holders that we’re on track.
There is a reason Kent went on record to say that they wanna get an established top 6 winger . You can read between the lines that they want to see some form of progress record-wise this year.

We really aren't that deep into the rebuild given that we only have 1 player drafted during the rebuild as an NHL regular with hopes of a couple more maybe being rookies this year.

And I would also note the team has already shown progress, we've consistently improved our point totals since the rebuild started.

I don't expect a bottom-5 finish but even if that happens I don't think management should worry as progress is often bumpy. Ownership, sure I could see them panicking but that's because I have a low opinion of Molson.

 

[MD thaivuN]

if you take into account Dach in, you also have to account Monahan being out.

As we didn't bring anybody in, we're probably ending in the same spot next year, probably even worse if Dach gets hurt again.

 

[Sorinth]

if you take into account Dach in, you also have to account Monahan being out.

As we didn't bring anybody in, we're probably ending in the same spot next year, probably even worse if Dach gets hurt again.

Monahan played less then 50 games for us which also has to be taken into account. So a heathy Dach is still a net improvement.

 

[JianYang]

Monahan played less then 50 games for us which also has to be taken into account. So a heathy Dach is still a net improvement.

Monahan actually played 83 regular season games this year.

But another guy who missed alot of time is newhook. A healthy dach should make a difference and a healthy newhook could make somewhat of a difference as well.

 

[Sorinth]

Monahan actually played 83 regular season games this year.

But another guy who missed alot of time is newhook. A healthy dach should make a difference and a healthy newhook could make somewhat of a difference as well.

Yeah but not with us. So when comparing the ins/outs what matters is the number of games he played for us only.

 

[Playmaker09]

Monahan actually played 83 regular season games this year.

But another guy who missed alot of time is newhook. A healthy dach should make a difference and a healthy newhook could make somewhat of a difference as well.

And yet Suzuki, Caufield, Slaf and Matheson all played 82 games. What are the odds of that happening again?

Last year we were only a little below average in terms of injuries.

 

[rickthegoon]

The Habs would need to beat again the players injury record to be a bottom 5 team.
It won’t happen again this year.
Just by the simple fact that Allen is gone, Burrowes is gone, Dach will surely play more than 4 periods in the entire season, Slaf has now adapted to the NHL, the pk finally learned how to be cohesive at the end of last year, Armia is playing for a new contract, Gallagher finally realized he’s now a bottom 6 player at the end of last year and finished the season strong ( 10 pts in last 10 games I think) and stopped taking selfish penalties etc etc……
I can’t see the team getting a minimum of at least 12pts more….
So about 88pts this year ; between 18th and 22nd in the league……… book it !

 

[MTL Dirty Birdy]

hate to be down/realistic but will dach have a better season than Monahan? Montreal will not be better based on the competitors improvements

A healthy Dach is dominant. He has the skills to definitely rival Suzuki point wise given the right linemates. He’s one of the few players that I watch on the Habs, that when he has the puck I get excited because he protects it soooo well. Always draws the open man

 

[HABitual Fan]

I think an improvement next year is more on the coaching staff than on the players. Many have mentioned all the 1 goal losses, well 1 more PP goal or one less PK goal bridges that gap. If the coaching staff are not capable of achieving that, contracts or not, the team will need to look in another direction to get the coaches that will improve those areas.

 

[Rapala]

Teams in a rebuild don't go from bottom 5 to a constant playoffs spot. They are supposed to become a bubble team before they become a playoff contender.

The team might squeeze into the playoffs soon, but the young Ds aren't mature enough and still too much floatsam among the forwards. Until then, they won't get very far.

The Devils are a great testament to that. They broke out the year after their coach felt they were in most games.
The following year they were well out of the playoffs in what was a terribly weak wild card selection.
They should be poised to make the dance again this year but shit happens.

 

[Rapala]

We need to cut our goals against down because we were second worst in the Eastern Conference and 5th worst in the entire league in that area. We were also 5th worst in the league at scoring goals so based on that, we don't have a lot going for us lol.

We didn't add anyone to help us with the goal scoring and we also lost Monahan's 13 goals. This year might see us finish even lower in the standings unless we have a healthy roster and some improved performances from everyone on the team. The prediction might be accurate.

It could be who knows. I'm looking for a vast improvement in the number of 1:30 plus shifts we give up in our zone.
If we don't see it I'll start to question the coaching staff. We have far too many Mobile Defenders to be putting up with that crap.
Even just firing the puck 200 ft is better than getting zoned at least you can reset and good teams do it all the time.
Particularly in the second period with the long change.

 

[BLONG7]

It could be who knows. I'm looking for a vast improvement in the number of 1:30 plus shifts we give up in our zone.
If we don't see it I'll start to question the coaching staff. We have far too many Mobile Defenders to be putting up with that crap.
Even just firing the puck 200 ft is better than getting zoned at least you can reset and good teams do it all the time.
Particularly in the second period with the long change.

Our 2nd periods, and the long change have been a disaster................the players and the coaches need to figure this out boys....
The coaches need to develop and improve as much as our team does.
Yes, that includes MSL.

 

[Habs Halifax]

if you take into account Dach in, you also have to account Monahan being out.

As we didn't bring anybody in, we're probably ending in the same spot next year, probably even worse if Dach gets hurt again.

Without Dach and with Monahan, we were around 7th or 8th (right before Monahan was traded). Monahan was the difference between 7/8 to 5? I think Dach provides a bigger difference right?

Also, what about more growth/development from Suzuki, Slaf, Caufield, Guhle, Roy, Newhook, Xhekaj?

4 or 5 wins in the difference from 5th last to 10-12th last. That's a small margin

 

[sandviper]

Without Dach and with Monahan, we were around 7th or 8th (right before Monahan was traded). Monahan was the difference between 7/8 to 5? I think Dach provides a bigger difference right?

Also, what about more growth/development from Suzuki, Slaf, Caufield, Guhle, Roy, Newhook, Xhekaj?

4 or 5 wins in the difference from 5th last to 10-12th last. That's a small margin

Dach should contribute but I’m not expecting anything mind-blowing given he lost a year and may need time to find that gear. However, I do hope we see some growth from all the players you mentioned.

I don’t expect us to be a playoff team, or even sniffing a wild card spot but around 10th place sounds about right.

As for the few screaming about the rebuild taking too long, we only finished year 3, and even year one was more just a series of horrendous decisions made by previous management that effectively tanked us. We have “advantages” compared to smaller market teams in rebuilding, I agree, but this year’s UFA class wasn’t spectacular. Even the RFAs… I dunno, but players like Zegras or Necas won’t move the needle IMO.

Making good decisions matter, but making poor decisions leads us to situations like Buffalo, Ottawa and seemingly Detroit.

 

[Sorinth]

Like one poster said earlier in this thread, this is a year to see what we really have, an evaluation year. We already have a pretty good 1st line, good goaltending (we do not need more for now), a very young and promising defense corp that has 2 good vets and a good top 4 (Ghule) to lead a bunch of prospects that have everything to prove.

I'm more than willing to be patient. We're on the right track. Not looking at results as far as finishing 22-28 or 32 for now. Yes it would be nice to finish 22nd but its not mandatory imo.

On the other hand, I want to - at least - see the followings:

1) Improvment of PP and PK... PP at 17,5% is not enough, we need 22% at least. For me that is 1st a coach challenge, then a player's good execution... ; same for PK... Let's aim 80% (76,5%)
2) Dach and Newhook to play a full 82 games season. If Dach goes down again for a long period, that will certainly be a message that he's not our 2nd line center going further. This where I like the Hage draft;
3) Ice time for Roy and Beck (do not trade until we know whats going on with Dach), Hutson, Reinbacher and Mailloux at the NHL level. I want to see them play. We have nothing to lose, everything to win. This is an evaluation year...
4) A TDL trade with one of Armia or Dvorak or Savard. The 1st two should give all they have ie last year of contract. I'd be happy to pick up another 1st rd because I don't think Calgary will finish 11th or so.
5) A Draft trade to clear up the defense. After evaluation, it will be obvious who isn't part of the future.

I don't really care where we finish. As long as we are able to properly evaluate what we really have in those prospects and improve what we have to improve.

2025-26 and 2026-27 will be the big growth years in standings. 2024-2025 is our last year of waiting. Patience.

One thing to note about special teams is that there's a limited amount of practice time, for now MSL has decided to spend that time working on more foundational aspects of the game and 5 on 5 play. So for all the talk of the assistants being bad at the PP or PK, the truth is they haven't been given the time to actually work on it. For a team focused on development, that makes a lot of sense, but if the shift towards competing is actually going to happen then we could expect an improvement to special teams just from the increased practice time devoted to it.

I'd also note for point 3, it's not a nothing to lose situation, rushing guys can cause development problems which for those guys would be a pretty devastating blow to the team and a huge loss. We'll know more when training camp arrives and can better judge if they are ready or need to work on things in the AHL.

 

[OldCraig71]

It could be who knows. I'm looking for a vast improvement in the number of 1:30 plus shifts we give up in our zone.
If we don't see it I'll start to question the coaching staff. We have far too many Mobile Defenders to be putting up with that crap.
Even just firing the puck 200 ft is better than getting zoned at least you can reset and good teams do it all the time.
Particularly in the second period with the long change.

 

[WeThreeKings]

The cool thing is that after getting Demidov, the need to pick as high as possible to get an offensive star is gone, and we have pretty much free ability to pick whatever position or type of player we want in the 2025 draft.

The stakes are really not so high now.

 

[Hansman]

Too early to have this thread.....................Wait until October.
All things considered, changes are still to be made................I have us in the 21st spot.....picking 11 or 12 next draft.

Agreed

 

[Rapala]

View attachment 895054

The problem with this dude was twofold.
He normally wasn't icing the puck to relieve pressure but actually trying to make a pass.
When he did want to relieve pressure he put it over the glass.

 

[Mudz]

One thing to note about special teams is that there's a limited amount of practice time, for now MSL has decided to spend that time working on more foundational aspects of the game and 5 on 5 play. So for all the talk of the assistants being bad at the PP or PK, the truth is they haven't been given the time to actually work on it. For a team focused on development, that makes a lot of sense, but if the shift towards competing is actually going to happen then we could expect an improvement to special teams just from the increased practice time devoted to it.

I'd also note for point 3, it's not a nothing to lose situation, rushing guys can cause development problems which for those guys would be a pretty devastating blow to the team and a huge loss. We'll know more when training camp arrives and can better judge if they are ready or need to work on things in the AHL.

It's pretty well known by now that MSL has been in charge of the PP for a while now. Burrows was there in support.

It's been 2 years where they didn't spent the ''normal'' amount of time on PP. While true it's because they are working on fundamentals, it almost feels like intentional tanking.

 

[sandviper]

The cool thing is that after getting Demidov, the need to pick as high as possible to get an offensive star is gone, and we have pretty much free ability to pick whatever position or type of player we want in the 2025 draft.

The stakes are really not so high now.

Would like a legit #1D but honestly I like where we are everywhere. Of course, more talent coming in is always good.

 

[Zilo44]

Without Dach and with Monahan, we were around 7th or 8th (right before Monahan was traded). Monahan was the difference between 7/8 to 5? I think Dach provides a bigger difference right?

Also, what about more growth/development from Suzuki, Slaf, Caufield, Guhle, Roy, Newhook, Xhekaj?

4 or 5 wins in the difference from 5th last to 10-12th last. That's a small margin

True but 2022 to 2024 was a heavy tanking phase in the league. Chicago, Montreal, Anaheim, Columbus, Arizona, San Jose were god awful. Buffalo, Ottawa and Detroit are ahead of these teams in terms of rebuilding. And Minnesota, Philly and Washington don’t seem ready to tap out. Same goes for Pittsburgh.

Outside of Calgary, I don’t really see another team going full tank mode. Nashville was looking like one last year but thet retooled and did well.

In the end, we cannot ascertain that 8 more points last year with all these teams at the bottom (many of which are improving like us) will give us 5-7 more spots. I see improvement everywhere outside of Chicago and San Jose.