Speculation: Habs finish 28th and bottom 5 in 24-25 season

[FrankMTL]

On the Puckpedia website, they give a value to the number and quality of each teams draft picks in the upcoming 3 years.

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For the 2025 draft, Montreal is at a ridiculous value of 119.81 so far.

Here is the Top 5 in order

Montreal- 119.81 (2 1sts, 2 2nds, 3 3rds, 2 4ths)
Chicago- 96.33
San Jose- 89.35
Philadelphia- 81.94
Anaheim- 75.58
Columbus- 73.14

The rest of the teams are not even close.

This will be the 4th draft of the "rebuild" and we should be able to concentrate on winning after. With the number of picks we have, we should be able to trade some for higher picks and concentrate on quality rather than quantity.

 

[Habs Halifax]

I see it the same way. We spent three years picking near the top of the draft and have a highly-ranked prospect pool. Time for them to start showing their pedigree in tangible progress – a few more wins, better production, smarter defence. Same for Reinbacher and Demidov in the AHL and KHL – tangible progress. We're still rebuilding, but we're moving past the tanking phase and entering the development stage.

Yup, It's going to be transition years. Difficult to know if that takes 2 or 3+ years. Sens and Sabres have been in those transition years but have stalled a bit. I think the Habs are deeper than them

 

[Miller Time]

I think the bottom six is one of the worst in the league to be honest. Goaltending will not be a strength, and the defense is promising but young. I expect the team to score more but let in a shit ton of goals.

I'm not sure why people feel our bottom 6 is an issue at all (outside of the cap cost ours carries thanks to bargainbin)

7-12 fwds last season (regular season toi/g) for the eventual final four:

Lundell, Rodrigues, Stenlund, Lorentz, Cousins, Lomberg

Foegel, Ryan, Brown, Janmark, Perry, Holloway

Marchment, Benn, Steel, Smith, Dadonov, Faska

Bunting, Martinook, Drury, JKO, Fast, Noesen


Our current 7-12 forwards (barring adding a top 6 player that bumps Roy/Newhook to 3rd line)

Anderson, Gallagher, Armia, Evans, Dvorak, Pez/RHP


I don't see how our bottom 6 could be viewed as anything worse than "average" compared to those groups.

Our issue last year is more that Gally, Evans & Anderson were 3-4-5 in total ice time among forwards for us... The injury and depth issues in our top 6 skaters is what hurts us the most (& the 20M cap cost of Armia/Gally/Anderson/Dvorak... Which impacts the ability to upgrade the top 6).

If our bottom 6-7 forwards play bottom 6 minutes for us all year, it'll be an area of strength rather than weakness imo

 

[BLONG7]

I'm not sure why people feel our bottom 6 is an issue at all (outside of the cap cost ours carries thanks to bargainbin)

7-12 fwds last season (regular season toi/g) for the eventual final four:

Lundell, Rodrigues, Stenlund, Lorentz, Cousins, Lomberg

Foegel, Ryan, Brown, Janmark, Perry, Holloway

Marchment, Benn, Steel, Smith, Dadonov, Faska

Bunting, Martinook, Drury, JKO, Fast, Noesen


Our current 7-12 forwards (barring adding a top 6 player that bumps Roy/Newhook to 3rd line)

Anderson, Gallagher, Armia, Evans, Dvorak, Pez/RHP


I don't see how our bottom 6 could be viewed as anything worse than "average" compared to those groups.

Our bottom 6 guys are average yes, but those cap hits, are insane ( Bergevin )

 

[Rapala]

Not sure why anyone even speculates where teams finish. There’s teams every single year that surprise and ones that fail like Jersey last year for example. If this team can stay healthy for once then who knows

That why I prefer to use other metrics to map progress. GF/GA PP PK Zone Time.
These will indicate how much we are progressing more so than where we end up in the standings.

 

[Rapala]

Our bottom 6 guys are average yes, but those cap hits, are insane ( Bergevin )

They are not average when it comes to playing heavy hard minutes.
Armia is the only one in our group that showed decent sustained board play.
My opinion about our issues has absolutely nothing to do with contracts.
Let's see how they fare when they no longer get top six reps.

 

[Goal Caufield50]

Yeah, hockey predictions are usually terrible. Nobody saw Vancouver doing so well and NJ, Buffalo and Ottawa doing so poorly. Few people really believed Edmonton would make it so far. Most people believe what happened last year will automatically happen again this year. That never works out... thank goodness!

I'm predicting Montreal finishes at .500, but there's a huge variance up or down that we'll never see coming.

Habs were 6 games under 500. they also had 15 or so ties/loss points. That is like 7.5 less wins. Hard to fathom a 13.5 win turnaround with nothing but organic growth . On paper other teams in the division got better.

 

[admiralcadillac]

I'm not sure why people feel our bottom 6 is an issue at all (outside of the cap cost ours carries thanks to bargainbin)

7-12 fwds last season (regular season toi/g) for the eventual final four:

Lundell, Rodrigues, Stenlund, Lorentz, Cousins, Lomberg

Foegel, Ryan, Brown, Janmark, Perry, Holloway

Marchment, Benn, Steel, Smith, Dadonov, Faska

Bunting, Martinook, Drury, JKO, Fast, Noesen


Our current 7-12 forwards (barring adding a top 6 player that bumps Roy/Newhook to 3rd line)

Anderson, Gallagher, Armia, Evans, Dvorak, Pez/RHP


I don't see how our bottom 6 could be viewed as anything worse than "average" compared to those groups.

Our issue last year is more that Gally, Evans & Anderson were 3-4-5 in total ice time among forwards for us... The injury and depth issues in our top 6 skaters is what hurts us the most (& the 20M cap cost of Armia/Gally/Anderson/Dvorak... Which impacts the ability to upgrade the top 6).

If our bottom 6-7 forwards play bottom 6 minutes for us all year, it'll be an area of strength rather than weakness imo

On paper I would agree with you but the play of Pezzeta, RHP, Gallagher, Dvorak and Anderson last year was really bad. They were bad on and off the puck. I liked Evans’ play and while Armia woke up, he ‘s so mercurial - he always has low periods that make him near unbearable to watch.

 

[Wayfarer13]

Some thoughts and what ifs here.
The first would be health and how the organization deals with the the challenges.
The first year was horrendous with the low point being the Florida game where they called up Cam Hillis from the ECHL. They had one healthy contract in the minors that night. The second year it was almost as bad but they managed the situation better gained 13 points. Last year the injury while bad we saw an improvement gaining another 8 points while being involved in 41 1 goal games. Looks like a team hanging around the edge.

Looking ahead I do see them moving a young defenseman and one of usual suspects for a player who will fit their arc. This I won't factor into my argument of where the team could be at the top end of possible spectrum.

Goaltending. The three headed monster in net has settled for this year likely did not help anyone. Taking Allen's numbers out and pro rating Monty's and CP's would lower the GA by about 35 goals. Can See Monty and CP being better and yah know Dobes should raise an eybrow.

Blue line. Youngest set for the last 2 years and if not then in the running for a third season in a row. Surely as a group they have improved their play with the games of experience played. And for those who have not there are hand full of young defenseman pushing up from below. Hutson could raise eyebrows and if he hits could end up with Calder votes.

Some thoughts on the forwards.The first line of Caufeild,Suzuki and Slafkovsky looks like a decent first line. Caufeild's shoulder seems to have healed.He spent the year while healing working on defensive game to add to it he scored 8 goals in his last 10 games. Suzuki as relible and steady as he has been upped his production by 11 points last year. Slafkovsky after being declared a bust played 82 games scoring 50 points with most of them in the second half.

The second line will be crucial and I am going with Newhook , Dach and Roy. Newhook played better coming back from from injury and scored 12 points in his last 13 games. Dach is the one I cross my fingers on over the health factor. If he is past that he maybe the breakout player of the year. Now Roy is the that seems to be constantly downplayed for him only toprove wrong. Smart kid and I suspect he will surprise.

The bottom 6 I won't set out lines and comment on a few of them.
Gallagher was healthy last year and was a point a game in his last 10. Seems to have firgured things out. Armia is another who seems to have figured things out since coming back from Laval. The Pezz is still the Pezz and still may have some ceiling in him. Anderson is one I hope goes to a mountain top in search of a all seeing Guru and figures it out. Dvorak should have less pressure on him and we will see. Evans I think still has some ceiling in him. Big important year for RHP and he needs show he belongs.

Where does this team finish?
If all thing goes south a lottery pick
If things progress a playoff team

 

[BLONG7]

They are not average when it comes to playing heavy hard minutes.
Armia is the only one in our group that showed decent sustained board play.
My opinion about our issues has absolutely nothing to do with contracts.
Let's see how they fare when they no longer get top six reps.

Anderson was a flop and a sook last year, when he wasn't on the top line................and lost his seat on the PP most nights.................Gally will be hard to convince he is shell of his former self......
I am not sure either of these two can play a role..................
I try not to think of their $$$ and cap hits, but it's beyond stupid, which is why Bergevin runs or coffee and bagels now out in LA.

I hope you are right and the bottom guys will accept and know their roles...............but in my mind, they are pretty average. Nothing more......................again, I hope you are right, and I am wrong.

 

[Wayfarer13]

Anderson was a flop and a sook last year, when he wasn't on the top line................and lost his seat on the PP most nights.................Gally will be hard to convince he is shell of his former self......
I am not sure either of these two can play a role..................
I try not to think of their $$$ and cap hits, but it's beyond stupid, which is why Bergevin runs or coffee and bagels now out in LA.

I hope you are right and the bottom guys will accept and know their roles...............but in my mind, they are pretty average. Nothing more......................again, I hope you are right, and I am wrong.

You do agree that the games are needed to played to determine what these players will do.

 

[BLONG7]

You do agree that the games are needed to played to determine what these players will do.

Absolutely...............

 

[Miller Time]

On paper I would agree with you but the play of Pezzeta, RHP, Gallagher, Dvorak and Anderson last year was really bad. They were bad on and off the puck. I liked Evans’ play and while Armia woke up, he ‘s so mercurial - he always has low periods that make him near unbearable to watch.

I don't share the assessment on those players.

Pez was very good... For a 13th forward.

Gally was very good for a bottom 6 forward (but played top 6 minutes).

Anderson was a very good 4th line winger... Also misplaced in his utilization.

Dvorak was hurt most of the year, and not very good in his brief stint back. Healthy I think he's a safe bet to be at worst a decent bottom 6 C.

RHP ... Agree there, but also had injury ravaged season. As a 12-13 forward he's a decent option.

Evans and Armia were both very good bottom 6 players for us. Also overused.

If we don't have to see these guys play top 6 minutes, they form an expensive but solid bottom 6.

At year end, if all 7 sit outside the top 6 used forwards, we'll be in a very good spot

 

[Lshap]

Habs were 6 games under 500. they also had 15 or so ties/loss points. That is like 7.5 less wins. Hard to fathom a 13.5 win turnaround with nothing but organic growth . On paper other teams in the division got better.

In the last three seasons, Montreal has improved from 55 pts to 68 pts to 76 pts. How did they manage that without getting a big UFA or trading for a win-now vet?

 

[Goal Caufield50]

In the last three seasons, Montreal has improved from 55 pts to 68 pts to 76 pts. How did they manage that without getting a big UFA or trading for a win-now vet?

No way but up from last. Other teams were/tanking on purpose. San Jose, Chicago, Arizona and Anaheim are trying to win. They all have improved and are in the west. The east is more difficult as no tanking teams

 

[Lshap]

No way but up from last. Other teams were/tanking on purpose. San Jose, Chicago, Arizona and Anaheim are trying to win. They all have improved and are in the west. The east is more difficult as no tanking teams

You haven't answered the question. How has Montreal managed to improve by 13 points, then by another 8 points the next season?

You're avoiding the answer, which is that as our team's young core improves, so does its record. Teams improve as a collective, not because they buy a UFA.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

No way but up from last. Other teams were/tanking on purpose. San Jose, Chicago, Arizona and Anaheim are trying to win. They all have improved and are in the west. The east is more difficult as no tanking teams

And... we weren't tanking on purpose?

We've traded away vets since Hughes got here. We've stockpiled picks, played rookies and younger players. We traded for bad contracts and when those players produced we've traded them away for more picks.

It's a deliberate concerted effort to draft high and assemble the best prospect pool we can. And as we've been doing this, our play has improved. Rebuilds do not happen quickly. You can't draft RB, Slaf and Demidov all in the same draft. It takes time to acquire that kind of talent. And as we've stockpiled picks we've added prospects like Hutson, Dach, Newhook and Hage with the additional picks we've gotten.

We have one of the best and deepest prospect pools in the league. We have no glaring needs as of now. That hasn't been the case in eons.

It will take time and patience to develop what we have but the hard work is already done. Now it's about playing those players and not rushing them. The last thing we should be doing is going for quick fixes that will short circuit the progress that we can make with our prospects. We've chosen the path of growing the team organically. It takes longer but it's the right path.

I get why people are talking about getting Laine or whoever but really... now is not the time. Now is the time to play a guy like Roy in the top six and give him all the ice he can handle. If he doesn't work out, we can look at other options down the road but I see no reason why we should get a quick fix and put him ahead of the younger players we have. The short bump in the standings isn't worth it. It's a marathon not a sprint.

We'll probably miss the playoffs this year. That's okay. But I wouldn't be shocked if we overperform. Young talent can surprise you.

 

[admiralcadillac]

I don't share the assessment on those players.

Pez was very good... For a 13th forward.

Gally was very good for a bottom 6 forward (but played top 6 minutes).

Anderson was a very good 4th line winger... Also misplaced in his utilization.

Dvorak was hurt most of the year, and not very good in his brief stint back. Healthy I think he's a safe bet to be at worst a decent bottom 6 C.

RHP ... Agree there, but also had injury ravaged season. As a 12-13 forward he's a decent option.

Evans and Armia were both very good bottom 6 players for us. Also overused.

If we don't have to see these guys play top 6 minutes, they form an expensive but solid bottom 6.

At year end, if all 7 sit outside the top 6 used forwards, we'll be in a very good spot

I don't share the assessment on those players.

Pez was very good... For a 13th forward.

Gally was very good for a bottom 6 forward (but played top 6 minutes).

Anderson was a very good 4th line winger... Also misplaced in his utilization.

Dvorak was hurt most of the year, and not very good in his brief stint back. Healthy I think he's a safe bet to be at worst a decent bottom 6 C.

RHP ... Agree there, but also had injury ravaged season. As a 12-13 forward he's a decent option.

Evans and Armia were both very good bottom 6 players for us. Also overused.

If we don't have to see these guys play top 6 minutes, they form an expensive but solid bottom 6.

At year end, if all 7 sit outside the top 6 used forwards, we'll be in a very good spot

I love your optimism but the play was putrid.

They certainly have the ability to be a lot better. I was less harsh on Gallagher than most but his first half of the season was hard to watch.

 

[Goal Caufield50]

And... we weren't tanking on purpose?

We've traded away vets since Hughes got here. We've stockpiled picks, played rookies and younger players. We traded for bad contracts and when those players produced we've traded them away for more picks.

It's a deliberate concerted effort to draft high and assemble the best prospect pool we can. And as we've been doing this, our play has improved. Rebuilds do not happen quickly. You can't draft RB, Slaf and Demidov all in the same draft. It takes time to acquire that kind of talent. And as we've stockpiled picks we've added prospects like Hutson, Dach, Newhook and Hage with the additional picks we've gotten.

We have one of the best and deepest prospect pools in the league. We have no glaring needs as of now. That hasn't been the case in eons.

It will take time and patience to develop what we have but the hard work is already done. Now it's about playing those players and not rushing them. The last thing we should be doing is going for quick fixes that will short circuit the progress that we can make with our prospects. We've chosen the path of growing the team organically. It takes longer but it's the right path.

I get why people are talking about getting Laine or whoever but really... now is not the time. Now is the time to play a guy like Roy in the top six and give him all the ice he can handle. If he doesn't work out, we can look at other options down the road but I see no reason why we should get a quick fix and put him ahead of the younger players we have. The short bump in the standings isn't worth it. It's a marathon not a sprint.

We'll probably miss the playoffs this year. That's okay. But I wouldn't be shocked if we overperform. Young talent can surprise you.

probably?

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

probably?

Probably.

Two good lines. Hutson juicing the PP. We might surprise people.

But a lot has to go right. And I think our D is going to be even greener than it's been. I think we'll make progress and might even be a bubble team. But I think at the end of the season we'll be on the outside looking in.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

I love your optimism but the play was putrid.

They certainly have the ability to be a lot better. I was less harsh on Gallagher than most but his first half of the season was hard to watch.

Gallagher's play was actually pretty good at the start of the year. He hit a wall and can't be counted on for anything but bottom six play. But he was much better until around December.

 

[salbutera]

After a good draft and FA period I see a bottom five finish. Utah is better. Upgrades there. Columbus is better. Detroit, Buffalo and Ottawa goaltender upgrade are better. It is your organic growth vrs others organic growth and upgrades. We add a Kirby Dach. I can not see a bubble playoff year. New Jersey has goaltending . Washington upgraded. Hughes needs to add in the summer and use cap space to avoid a 4th year of bottom 5 finishes.

https://x.com/i/web/status/1815374250535981181

 

[Sorinth]

Some thoughts and what ifs here.
The first would be health and how the organization deals with the the challenges.
The first year was horrendous with the low point being the Florida game where they called up Cam Hillis from the ECHL. They had one healthy contract in the minors that night. The second year it was almost as bad but they managed the situation better gained 13 points. Last year the injury while bad we saw an improvement gaining another 8 points while being involved in 41 1 goal games. Looks like a team hanging around the edge.

Looking ahead I do see them moving a young defenseman and one of usual suspects for a player who will fit their arc. This I won't factor into my argument of where the team could be at the top end of possible spectrum.

Goaltending. The three headed monster in net has settled for this year likely did not help anyone. Taking Allen's numbers out and pro rating Monty's and CP's would lower the GA by about 35 goals. Can See Monty and CP being better and yah know Dobes should raise an eybrow.

Blue line. Youngest set for the last 2 years and if not then in the running for a third season in a row. Surely as a group they have improved their play with the games of experience played. And for those who have not there are hand full of young defenseman pushing up from below. Hutson could raise eyebrows and if he hits could end up with Calder votes.

Some thoughts on the forwards.The first line of Caufeild,Suzuki and Slafkovsky looks like a decent first line. Caufeild's shoulder seems to have healed.He spent the year while healing working on defensive game to add to it he scored 8 goals in his last 10 games. Suzuki as relible and steady as he has been upped his production by 11 points last year. Slafkovsky after being declared a bust played 82 games scoring 50 points with most of them in the second half.

The second line will be crucial and I am going with Newhook , Dach and Roy. Newhook played better coming back from from injury and scored 12 points in his last 13 games. Dach is the one I cross my fingers on over the health factor. If he is past that he maybe the breakout player of the year. Now Roy is the that seems to be constantly downplayed for him only toprove wrong. Smart kid and I suspect he will surprise.

The bottom 6 I won't set out lines and comment on a few of them.
Gallagher was healthy last year and was a point a game in his last 10. Seems to have firgured things out. Armia is another who seems to have figured things out since coming back from Laval. The Pezz is still the Pezz and still may have some ceiling in him. Anderson is one I hope goes to a mountain top in search of a all seeing Guru and figures it out. Dvorak should have less pressure on him and we will see. Evans I think still has some ceiling in him. Big important year for RHP and he needs show he belongs.

Where does this team finish?
If all thing goes south a lottery pick
If things progress a playoff team

Overall I tend to agree with your post but I would advise being careful with the whole he played well during the last 10-20 games which means he's back/figured it out. Like sure it's possible but odds are they remain inconsistent and it was just luck/coincidence.

I think one of the biggest challenges facing Hughes is that inexperience on D you mention. I think I've seen it mentioned that the rule of them is a D needs 200 NHL games before you get a good idea on what you have, and although most of the current crop of young NHLers should hit or get near that # if they play 82 games this year, we've got 3 big name prospects that are on the verge of forcing their way onto the team meaning that we've got several more years of having an inexperienced D ahead of us. How Hughes manages that while we push for the playoffs and contender status is not going to be easy.

 

[Wayfarer13]

Overall I tend to agree with your post but I would advise being careful with the whole he played well during the last 10-20 games which means he's back/figured it out. Like sure it's possible but odds are they remain inconsistent and it was just luck/coincidence.

I think one of the biggest challenges facing Hughes is that inexperience on D you mention. I think I've seen it mentioned that the rule of them is a D needs 200 NHL games before you get a good idea on what you have, and although most of the current crop of young NHLers should hit or get near that # if they play 82 games this year, we've got 3 big name prospects that are on the verge of forcing their way onto the team meaning that we've got several more years of having an inexperienced D ahead of us. How Hughes manages that while we push for the playoffs and contender status is not going to be easy.

The caveat to what you have just said would be which stretch of games did a player play well or not so well along with the factors on why a player preformed at that level during that stretch of games. What you want to see is the trend and up is better than down. The trend is right with this team and I am expecting a buttload of how this team is over rated. There is spectrum of where this will finish this year and all I did was lay out a few positives.` What does it look like if they can shave 35 GA and have a second line that can produce?

 

[Sorinth]

The caveat to what you have just said would be which stretch of games did a player play well or not so well along with the factors on why a player preformed at that level during that stretch of games. What you want to see is the trend and up is better than down. The trend is right with this team and I am expecting a buttload of how this team is over rated. There is spectrum of where this will finish this year and all I did was lay out a few positives.` What does it look like if they can shave 35 GA and have a second line that can produce?

The trend for the team is upwards and has been for several seasons now, and I do expect them to surprise the more pessimistic fans/media narratives. There for sure a lot of positives to look forward too, I was just pointing out that Caufield isn't automatically fully healthy and back to being a 40-50 goal scorer because he finished the season with 8 goals in 10 games, or that Gallagher will be a good 3rd line winger for us because he was a ppg for the final 10 games, or that Armia has figured things out and will be consistent because he had good stretch of games.

I think the biggest improvements we will see is special teams. As MSL transitions from a near total focus on development to actually caring about winning games I think he'll be less tolerant towards bad/lazy penalties and he'll spend more time during practice on special teams.

We spent the 4th most time in the league on the PK, being more disciplined not only means less time on the PK meaning less GAs, it likely also means an improved PK since guys will be more rested in game plus the aformentioned practice time. In terms of PP, similar story line, and one thing I'm going to be following is whether Dach and Slaf can start to really draw penalties, with their combination of size, speed, and cycling I can really start to see them drawing lots of penalties due to their combination of size, speed, and cycling.