I think some are more pessimistic than they should. MTL was pretty darn good at 5 on 5 down the stretch. Are they a playoff team? I don't think so but they will probably finish in the 19-22 range which would be a step in the right direction. I think the whole premise of MTL having the most 1 goal losses is a tad misleading but it's hard to think they can't get some better luck in that department next year.
For all the flack that this team gets for offense I anticipate that they could score around 240-250 goals which would be a tiny bit more than last year (236; a lot of OT goals too in that metric). I made some projections with best case scenario, somewhere in the middle and worst case scenario (for # of goals per regular).
NAME | WORST CASE | REALIST | BEST CASE |
CAUFIELD | 30 | 32 | 37 |
SUZUKI | 25 | 32 | 35 |
SLAF | 20 | 25 | 28 |
NEWHOOK | 15 | 20 | 23 |
DACH | 12 | 15 | 18 |
ROY | 13 | 15 | 18 |
ANDERSON | 8 | 15 | 18 |
GALLAGHER | 12 | 15 | 17 |
ARMIA | 12 | 15 | 18 |
DVORAK | 10 | 12 | 15 |
RHP | 7 | 10 | 12 |
EVANS | 5 | 7 | 10 |
PEZZETTA | 2 | 4 | 6 |
BECK | 5 | 8 | 10 |
CALL UP FWDS | 3 | 6 | 8 |
MATHESON | 7 | 10 | 12 |
GUHLE | 3 | 5 | 7 |
HUTSON | 5 | 7 | 10 |
BARRON | 3 | 6 | 8 |
XHEKAJ | 3 | 4 | 6 |
HARRIS | 1 | 3 | 4 |
SAVARD | 1 | 3 | 4 |
STRUBLE | 2 | 4 | 5 |
TOTAL | 204 | 273 | 329 |
INJURY (minus) | -20.4 | -27.3 | -49.35 |
TOTAL w/ inj | 184 | 246 | 280 |
RANK (NHL) | 30th | Tied for 22nd | 7th |
I don't think any of these are necessarily outlandish.
The team is still young so we can expect some improvements defensively as well. Montreal allowed 289 goals last year. With a full tandem of Primeau and Montembault and continuous improvement from the PK, I don't think a reduction of 20 goals is not too ambitious. The Habs were also implementing a new D system, the stability in terms of personnel should help compared to the many teams who changed coaches. Also, the Habs were the 3rd most penalized team last year. If Xhekaj, Gallagher and Matheson can cut down on penalties it should help reduce goals against.
I expect Montreal to finish with around 85 points which would have been good for 22nd in the league last year (and 6 pts short of a playoff spot).