Speculation: Habs finish 28th and bottom 5 in 24-25 season

[boompuffboom]

imho lots of pressure on #77;;;;

i'm rooting for the guy, big time. Let's go Kirby.
70+ games this year, u got this!

 

[Lshap]

I think you need marchessault type player to accelerate the rebuild. you get better with better players.

what are the odds 9 of 9 improve?

Great teams aren't built from one player... especially UFAs. The best teams grow from superior talent and depth, which grows from a superior group of prospects and youth. Habs have one of the top groups of kids; they will hopefully become one of the top rosters. Again – that's the point of a rebuild.

Sure, add a good UFA, make trades. As I said, those are the finishing touches once a strong foundation is in place. But there is no sense claiming a trade or two will have a greater impact than a roster of promising kids all developing together.

I don't understand your question about the odds of all prospects improving. Do you believe every single one of Montreal's picks over the last three years need to reach their ceiling for the team to win?

 

[Saundies]

I think you need marchessault type player to accelerate the rebuild. you get better with better players.

what are the odds 9 of 9 improve?

Not good, but there's going to be tons of things we don't account for that happen too.

Nobody would have pencilled Brendan Gallagher as a staple in our lineup for a decade when he was drafted. No one would have expected Struble to get called up and steal a spot last year. Players are going to surprise/come out of the woodwork and guys we expect will get better may flatline a little. Happens all the time.

Too many times, teams get anointed in the offseason as "Look out, they got better" (Ottawa the last couple of years, Buffalo for the last 10, etc) but sometimes the on-paper improvements don't translate. People have been expecting Boston to regress for years now and they just keep chugging.

Nothing matters until the games are played.

 

[sandviper]

Barring major injuries, no way we’re bottom-5 next season. In fact, I’m looking more in the 9-12 range.

 

[Scintillating10]

Since February 1st,
Nick Suzuki = 35 points in 33 games..
Slafkovsky = 30 points in 33 games
Caufield = 26 points in 33 games

Did that with a terrible PP and while being the only line the opponent needed to shutdown.
Both should be a lot different next year and on top of that, we're talking about kids getting better every year.

What do you expect in terms of production from them next year ?
Lower, same or higher ?

We also have Dach back and Hutson. But we never improved the team this summer while clubs around us did

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

I think some are more pessimistic than they should. MTL was pretty darn good at 5 on 5 down the stretch. Are they a playoff team? I don't think so but they will probably finish in the 19-22 range which would be a step in the right direction. I think the whole premise of MTL having the most 1 goal losses is a tad misleading but it's hard to think they can't get some better luck in that department next year.

For all the flack that this team gets for offense I anticipate that they could score around 240-250 goals which would be a tiny bit more than last year (236; a lot of OT goals too in that metric). I made some projections with best case scenario, somewhere in the middle and worst case scenario (for # of goals per regular).

NAME	WORST CASE	REALIST	BEST CASE
CAUFIELD	30​	32​	37​
SUZUKI	25​	32​	35​
SLAF	20​	25​	28​
NEWHOOK	15​	20​	23​
DACH	12​	15​	18​
ROY	13​	15​	18​
ANDERSON	8​	15​	18​
GALLAGHER	12​	15​	17​
ARMIA	12​	15​	18​
DVORAK	10​	12​	15​
RHP	7​	10​	12​
EVANS	5​	7​	10​
PEZZETTA	2​	4​	6​
BECK	5​	8​	10​
CALL UP FWDS	3​	6​	8​
MATHESON	7​	10​	12​
GUHLE	3​	5​	7​
HUTSON	5​	7​	10​
BARRON	3​	6​	8​
XHEKAJ	3​	4​	6​
HARRIS	1​	3​	4​
SAVARD	1​	3​	4​
STRUBLE	2​	4​	5​
TOTAL	204​	273​	329​
INJURY (minus)	-20.4​	-27.3​	-49.35​
TOTAL w/ inj	184​	246​	280​
RANK (NHL)	30th	Tied for 22nd	7th

I don't think any of these are necessarily outlandish.

The team is still young so we can expect some improvements defensively as well. Montreal allowed 289 goals last year. With a full tandem of Primeau and Montembault and continuous improvement from the PK, I don't think a reduction of 20 goals is not too ambitious. The Habs were also implementing a new D system, the stability in terms of personnel should help compared to the many teams who changed coaches. Also, the Habs were the 3rd most penalized team last year. If Xhekaj, Gallagher and Matheson can cut down on penalties it should help reduce goals against.

I expect Montreal to finish with around 85 points which would have been good for 22nd in the league last year (and 6 pts short of a playoff spot).

I would put CC’s best case higher. You can’t count on it being higher but if that shoulder heals somewhat, there should be an improvement in his numbers. Not something we should count on but if you looking at best case, a guy who get the opportunity and shots he does should be a 40 goal guy under normal circumstances.

 

[Rapala]

Dach just need to be a solid 2nd line center, He has 99 points in 212 games in career which is an average of 38 points every 82 games. He must make some progress but people act like he needs to go from 20 points to 80 points for him to be useful.

On pace might be cherry picking but "i'm gonna use the worse season this guy had to prove a point" is cherry picking too. In reality Dach is very close to be a good 2nd line center and in every games i've watched him he looked like he had the skills to pull it off for sure.

Who used a worse season to prove a point.
I was 100% talking about the previous season where people claimed he broke out with his 38 points.
Nobody in their right mind would look at last season either way.
Except maybe to say Availability has to be taken into account.
It's been an ongoing struggle for Kirby as you well know.
18 70 58 2 is not an auspicious start to his NHL career,

 

[Mrb1p]

This is a rebuild. What are people expecting ? Hutson, Reinbacher and Demidov are all probably 1 year from the NHL and even further away from having an impact. I thought they might add something in UFA but I’d rather be patient than be stuck with contracts like Marchessault/DeBrusk/Edmundson/Monahan/OEL and other garbage that was signed.

Bottom 10 finish at best.

I was expecting some kind of progress. Yes it's a rebuild, I understand.

With that said, the team has been accumulating assets since 2018. Suzuki, Caufield, Dach, Newhook, are all primed assets and Slaf, Guhle and Roy are all entering their prime. Why are we wasting prime years trying to tank again ? We have all we need.

 

[Hostile Offer]

I thought there was a lot of promise last year in this team, they looked better than their record for the most part towards the end of the year and the core up front seems determined to improve. A lot also depends on how Dach has recovered from his injury. But I do believe we will see improvement next year. Not like "from bottom five to playoffs" level improvement but playoffs contention should be the goal for this team.

 

[SOLR]

I would put CC’s best case higher. You can’t count on it being higher but if that shoulder heals somewhat, there should be an improvement in his numbers. Not something we should count on but if you looking at best case, a guy who get the opportunity and shots he does should be a 40 goal guy under normal circumstances.

He was going at that rate in the last 10 games. I look forward to what he can do next year, hopefully 35+

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

He was going at that rate in the last 10 games. I look forward to what he can do next year, hopefully 35+

Very weird year for him. He had two hot streaks separated by a twenty something goal-less streak.

I just want to see improvement on that front and a return to more consistent results on goals. Since MSL came in he’d been ultra consistent until the injury. I’m hoping we can see that again in the next two years.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

I was expecting some kind of progress. Yes it's a rebuild, I understand.

With that said, the team has been accumulating assets since 2018. Suzuki, Caufield, Dach, Newhook, are all primed assets and Slaf, Guhle and Roy are all entering their prime. Why are we wasting prime years trying to tank again ? We have all we need.

We won’t try to tank again. But the reality is that it takes time for players to develop, especially blueliners.

In the next couple of years we’re going to see: Beck, Hutson, Roy, RB, Demidov, Maillioux join the team. And there are others out there like Fowler who could be here as well. That’s a massive influx of talent. It’s going to take a while for them to develop.

 

[Spring in Fialta]

A whole, whole lot needs to go right for any sort of substantial improvements in the standings. Too much IMO to expect it. Who are we leap frogging realistically?

 

[sandviper]

A whole, whole lot needs to go right for any sort of substantial improvements in the standings. Too much IMO to expect it. Who are we leap frogging realistically?

We’re almost certain to still be better than:

San Jose
Chicago
Anaheim

I think we are better than:

Calgary
Utah

Due to strength of division, I think we’ll place higher than:

Columbus
Philly

Despite adding Ullmark, I think Ottawa is taking a step back and I don’t think Pittsburgh is going to have a great season. Buffalo, St. Louis, Seattle, Washington and Islanders I expect them to be better than us but at the same time, like us, they need a lot to go right.

I don’t expect us to leap frog all these teams, but we should be better than bottom-5 if healthy. Even with our defence as young as it is.

 

[Le Barron de HF]

I would put CC’s best case higher. You can’t count on it being higher but if that shoulder heals somewhat, there should be an improvement in his numbers. Not something we should count on but if you looking at best case, a guy who get the opportunity and shots he does should be a 40 goal guy under normal circumstances.

I put it down a notch because at some point we would be finishing in 1st place in NHL which seemed a little too ambitious even in a best case scenario

 

[Kosseca]

We’re almost certain to still be better than:

San Jose
Chicago
Anaheim

I think we are better than:

Calgary
Utah

Due to strength of division, I think we’ll place higher than:

Columbus
Philly

Despite adding Ullmark, I think Ottawa is taking a step back and I don’t think Pittsburgh is going to have a great season. Buffalo, St. Louis, Seattle, Washington and Islanders I expect them to be better than us but at the same time, like us, they need a lot to go right.

I don’t expect us to leap frog all these teams, but we should be better than bottom-5 if healthy. Even with our defence as young as it is.

I got team divided into 3 tier at the bottom of the standing:

1 - SJ and CHI.I would move however CLB and Flyers into that group.

2- Then i have a group of team that include MTL,ANA,CAL, SEA.

3- OTT, BUF, STL, NYI WAS and PIT.I think Utha took a big step forward and would be part of that tier

MTL could jump into tier 3 if we can add a top6 guy.

 

[Habs Halifax]

Barring major injuries, no way we’re bottom-5 next season. In fact, I’m looking more in the 9-12 range.

Agreed. There will be other teams who move to tanking while we are moving from tanking to transitioning up the standings. Low % we are drafting bottom 5 next year. Always a chance but the odds from what we know today are low.

Some fans don't realize that we were even close to picking 7 or 8 in this last draft. That's where we were in Feb but then we traded Monahan and accepted the tank strategy to finish the season. Smart. This with Dach out the whole year. Might happen again if we struggle but that's a Feb/March+ conversation.

9-12 is close to what I think as well. It's difficult to predict but the general theme and energy from this group is moving up the standings and they are a confident and motivated group.

I got team divided into 3 tier at the bottom of the standing:

1 - SJ and CHI.I would move however CLB and Flyers into that group.

2- Then i have a group of team that include MTL,ANA,CAL, SEA.

3- OTT, BUF, STL, NYI WAS and PIT.I think Utha took a big step forward and would be part of that tier

MTL could jump into tier 3 if we can add a top6 guy.

Montreal is in tier 3 without adding the top 6 guy. And the offense won't hold us back. It's going to be with the young D. Improvements start on the D side and offensive/momentum comes from that.

Habs were 7th or 8th last in Feb before we traded Monahan. This without Dach the entire season.

I believe we had the most 1 goal games in the NHL last year. I think we go lucky with getting the 5th pick

 

[Kosseca]

Montreal is in tier 3 without adding the top 6 guy. And the offense won't hold us back. It's going to be with the young D. Improvements start on the D side and offensive/momentum comes from that.

Habs were 7th or 8th last in Feb before we traded Monahan. This without Dach the entire season.

I believe we had the most 1 goal games in the NHL last year. I think we go lucky with getting the 5th pick

Too much deadwood on the bottom 6 and uncertain offensive output make me think we are tier 2.

 

[Mrb1p]

We won’t try to tank again. But the reality is that it takes time for players to develop, especially blueliners.

In the next couple of years we’re going to see: Beck, Hutson, Roy, RB, Demidov, Maillioux join the team. And there are others out there like Fowler who could be here as well. That’s a massive influx of talent. It’s going to take a while for them to develop.

Demidov is the only core piece that's not with the team right now. Hutson too I guess, even if his place as a core piece is uncertain. It takes time to build a winning roster, punto. They should've added vets to help with that, not to go for a 9th with vets playing over young players, but to have the vets support the youngsters in key positions.

Cole-Nick-Slaf
Roy-Dach-Vet A
Vet B-Newhook-Armia
RHP-Evans-Dvorak
Anderson/Gallagher

Guhle-Vet C
Hutson-Savard
Xhekaj-Struble/Barron/Harris/Kovacevic/Reinbacher/Mailloux.

By adding those 2 or 3 key vets, you just make the roster so much better, you just give a hand to Suz, Slaf, Cole, Dach, Roy, Newhook, Guhle and Hutson to actually start to fulfill what they will be doing for the next 6-7 years, instead of having them lose another season for no good reason.

It's also very organic as vet A would be pushed down by Demidov next year and would replace Dvorak down the line up, vet B would either slide down due to prospects pushing up and replace Armia or he stays up and a prospect replaces Armia.

Same with Vet C, Reinbacher comes in and pushes him down, Savard is either pushed down again or traded/not resigned. I don't see how it's something people are fighting so much "It's not the year!" Miss me with that Buffalo sabres attitude.

 

[Habs Halifax]

Too much deadwood on the bottom 6 and uncertain offensive output make me think we are tier 2.

Our deadwood on the bottom 6 is actually better than most teams though. That is not holding us back.

Offense is OK when we talk tier 2/tier 3.

It's the defense that will possibly hold us back. Lots of guys learning on the job. Only trusted guys we got are Matheson, Guhle, Savard. The others are in development.

We were 4 or 5 wins away from 10-12 pick in this last draft. That's without Dach and trading Monahan in Feb.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

I put it down a notch because at some point we would be finishing in 1st place in NHL which seemed a little too ambitious even in a best case scenario

Fair enough.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

Demidov is the only core piece that's not with the team right now. Hutson too I guess, even if his place as a core piece is uncertain. It takes time to build a winning roster, punto. They should've added vets to help with that, not to go for a 9th with vets playing over young players, but to have the vets support the youngsters in key positions.

Cole-Nick-Slaf
Roy-Dach-Vet A
Vet B-Newhook-Armia
RHP-Evans-Dvorak
Anderson/Gallagher

Guhle-Vet C
Hutson-Savard
Xhekaj-Struble/Barron/Harris/Kovacevic/Reinbacher/Mailloux.

By adding those 2 or 3 key vets, you just make the roster so much better, you just give a hand to Suz, Slaf, Cole, Dach, Roy, Newhook, Guhle and Hutson to actually start to fulfill what they will be doing for the next 6-7 years, instead of having them lose another season for no good reason.

It's also very organic as vet A would be pushed down by Demidov next year and would replace Dvorak down the line up, vet B would either slide down due to prospects pushing up and replace Armia or he stays up and a prospect replaces Armia.

Same with Vet C, Reinbacher comes in and pushes him down, Savard is either pushed down again or traded/not resigned. I don't see how it's something people are fighting so much "It's not the year!" Miss me with that Buffalo sabres attitude.

We’ve got so much young talent, I’d prefer we see would these guys can do. We can add UFAs later.

Roy, Hutson, Mailloux, Beck are all players I expect will become part of the roster this year. I think Demidov and RB come next year.

The young talent for a good club is assembled. All they need now is the opportunity to develop. I’d rather just play them and have them get better.

Who cares if a vet might help us squeak into 8th this year? We’re on the right path. Done the right things. Let’s see it through. Play the kids and see how they fare. Give a guy like Roy all the ice he can handle. I’d rather Roy than VetA. The long term payoff is better.

 

[Mrb1p]

We’ve got so much young talent, I’d prefer we see would these guys can do. We can add UFAs later.

Roy, Hutson, Mailloux, Beck are all players I expect will become part of the roster this year. I think Demidov and RB come next year.

The young talent for a good club is assembled. All they need now is the opportunity to develop. I’d rather just play them and have them get better.

Who cares if a vet might help us squeak into 8th this year? We’re on the right path. Done the right things. Let’s see it through. Play the kids and see how they fare. Guy a guy like Roy all the ice he can handle. I’d rather Roy than VetA. The long term payoff is better.

It's not about squeaking into 8th because of a vet, it's about vets helping the young players in key role raise their game to a new level, to show natural progression.

Roy is on the 2nd line with Vet A in my scenario, Im not sure how you see him taking his icetime. There is space for both Roy and a vet addition, that's the point and I explained it pretty thoroughly in my post.


I wonder, do we have actual examples of teams winning without significant veteran infusion ? The only true example would be Pens and even they added a lot of veteran talent to help out.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

It's not about squeaking into 8th because of a vet, it's about vets helping the young players in key role raise their game to a new level, to show natural progression.

Roy is on the 2nd line with Vet A in my scenario, Im not sure how you see him taking his icetime. There is space for both Roy and a vet addition, that's the point and I explained it pretty thoroughly in my post.


I wonder, do we have actual examples of teams winning without significant veteran infusion ? The only true example would be Pens and even they added a lot of veteran talent to help out.

Okay cool. But even here, I’d have Newhook on line two. He can be your VetA guy. He can be pushed down when Demidov joins. And I’d have Beck as my 3rd line center.

The good news here is that there’s so much young talent, it’s forcing its way into the lineup.

 

[Mrb1p]

Okay cool. But even here, I’d have Newhook on line two. He can be your VetA guy. He can be pushed down when Demidov joins. And I’d have Beck as my 3rd line center.

The good news here is that there’s so much young talent, it’s forcing its way into the lineup.

But then you ice Beck with Armia and Anderson on his wings ? He'd need a vet too. Someone that can actually take off pressure from Beck and actually let him play, not Anderson or Gallagher or Pezzetta whos gonna drag him down.