LeBrun: Guentzel: Pens want prospects over picks - Carolina favorite

[molon labe]

Jake might not be a "line driver" but I wouldn't call him a "complementary winger" either. He's made some absolutely stellar, highlight-reel, individual effort plays in Pittsburgh. He's a bonified 1W and he's the full package. Pretty much no weaknesses to his game.

He hasn't done those things in years.

But he also evolved to become stellar net front and a great passer in his own right.

....but the flying down the wing toe drag stuff has been dead since 2018 if we're being honest. A team should be in on him as a playoff finisher at this point. Come July - teams with young C's like Pettersson/Bedard should be in on him for those aforementioned skills. They're priceless. Basically most teams try and get a guy who can be net front, or get the one timer/wrister off, or be a finisher - if they can pass even better. Jake is a jack of all trades at this point. A line driver he is not imo.

 

[3ladesof5teel]

Dubas is doing the Dubas special and overplaying his hand, this will be a Hanifin 2.0 return where it’s good but not what’s expected

What's expected?

 

[ZachaFlockaFlame]

He hasn't done those things in years.

But he also evolved to become stellar net front and a great passer in his own right.

....but the flying down the wing toe drag stuff has been dead since 2018 if we're being honest. A team should be in on him as a playoff finisher at this point. Come July - teams with young C's like Pettersson/Bedard should be in on him for those aforementioned skills. They're priceless. Basically most teams try and get a guy who can be net front, or get the one timer/wrister off, or be a finisher - if they can pass even better. Jake is a jack of all trades at this point. A line driver he is not imo.

He's a better Toffoli if that makes sense, he does one thing at an elite level and that's finish

 

[reino]

Jake's been Pens best player this season. He's that good

 

[The Old Master]

my guess is that the rag's are in the top spot now going with quality over quantity.

 

[Empoleon8771]

In the Hurricanes talk section, Seravalli said that Nikishin is off-limits, but they would trade Morrow if push came to shove.

He didn't explicitly say that the Penguins were asking about him, he said that the Penguins have specific players they're asking about and Carolina "has a line they won't cross". That line they won't cross is Nikishin, but it wasn't explicit that the Penguins were asking about him specifically.

I think the fact that Seravalli mentioned Morrow as a guy they'd move makes me think that it's just Nikishin that's off-limits.

 

[SomeDude]

Jake's been Pens best player this season. He's that good

No he hasn’t. Sid has remained an elite player.

 

[krutovsdonut]

Explain what my endorsement is...or are you just passive aggressive by nature.

Jake is what he is:
- No team getting him is looking for a line driver
- He's an elite finisher who...you know...finishes shit that your C / PMD is dishing. That's coveted.

you're saying he is an elite finisher when playing with two hof centres who do things other good centres cannot do, but struggles to do so with less talented centres. you're now also saying he doesn't drive a line.

if he really is a one trick pony finisher like that he's worth a lot less than pens fans are asking and i think less teams would be interested.

i hope you're underselling him.

 

[Ryder71]

Jake's been Pens best player this season. He's that good

He's a Crosby creation dontcha know!

No he hasn’t. Sid has remained an elite player.

He's not the player he was 10 years ago. Still very good but only a point per game player.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I think Seravalli is kinda just restating the obvious, but I think it's very clear that Carolina and NYR are the favorites right now.

 

[Ogelthorpe]

I'm talking about building a franchise here. And the point is that every prospect you have is another shot at the target of landing that top line wing internally. Are multiple players of that potential worth 20 games of a player and one potential playoff run?

They've hit on Nikishin. They think they've got someone who can play soon in Morrow. Many of these "prospects" are potential pieces for years to come. That's the value this front office is working to have. And that's the front office strategy that Aho and Svechnikov have chosen to sign up with long term.

Again, if I were making the deals at this deadline, I'd take the deal proposed here to STL and get Buchnevich for this year and next. If there's an added price, it's worth it for the additional year.

While the last sentence is an opinion you are welcome to, it also shows how conditioned you have been to accept “less”.
You basically just said you’d take the vastly inferior player because you have 1 more year of control.

 

[Ryder71]

I think Seravalli is kinda just restating the obvious, but I think it's very clear that Carolina and NYR are the favorites right now.

And if JR gets an itch, it can change in secs.

 

[Empoleon8771]

And if JR gets an itch, it can change in secs.

I think the Canucks are out and they're shifting towards Zucker tbh.

 

[bleedgreen]

In the Hurricanes talk section, Seravalli said that Nikishin is off-limits, but they would trade Morrow if push came to shove.

He didn't explicitly say that the Penguins were asking about him, he said that the Penguins have specific players they're asking about and Carolina "has a line they won't cross". That line they won't cross is Nikishin, but it wasn't explicit that the Penguins were asking about him specifically.

I think the fact that Seravalli mentioned Morrow as a guy they'd move makes me think that it's just Nikishin that's off-limits.

As a Canes fan I agree Nikishin is the only “off limits” guy, and I think if it’s the right guy Nikishin could go but not for a rental. I don’t know that a signed Guentzel is there either.

Morrow could be on the table.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

The only way the return should be disappointing is if you had unreasonable expectations to begin with.

They were never going to get a prospect like Lekkerimaki (VAN), Perreault (NYR) or Nikishin (CAR) back for Guentzel. At best, it would be a Nadeau caliber guy.

The expectation for Penguins fans for a Guentzel return should be a B+ headliner prospect/young player, another prospect and a 1st, or something similar to that in value. Something along the lines of Othmann, Jones and a 1st from the NYR or Morrow, Blake and a 2nd from Carolina.

How does that help the Pens more than re-signing Guentzel if they have any hope of competing during the core's remaining time here?

 

[molon labe]

you're saying he is an elite finisher when playing with two hof centres who do things other good centres cannot do, but struggles to do so with less talented centres. you're now also saying he doesn't drive a line.

if he really is a one trick pony finisher like that he's worth a lot less than pens fans are asking and i think less teams would be interested.

i hope you're underselling him.

I never said he struggles. There are no struggles in his game. He's as well rounded as they come unless you're roping in the likes of Crosby.

I don't know how to do this without crayons like I used to with the Marines:

- Jake not line driver
- Jake great scorer, finisher, tip in guy, clean up guy, passer

What part of Jake being available has anything to do with him driving his own line? The counter argument here is the whole product of Crosby. The playoff teams interested have C's that need scoring wingers. He's the best scoring winger that's been available in ....at least since Panarin and at half the cost with better playoff pedigree.

He's not here turning non playoff teams into playoff teams - he's taking playoff teams to the next level by likely contributing .4-.6 goals per game overnight.

 

[Empoleon8771]

As a Canes fan I agree Nikishin is the only “off limits” guy, and I think if it’s the right guy Nikishin could go but not for a rental. I don’t know that a signed Guentzel is there either.

Seravalli also said that IN HIS OPINION (emphasizing this), he thinks Guentzel is interested in re-signing in Carolina and it wouldn't necessarily be a rental.

I think Nikishin is flat out not being moved for Guentzel in any situation, though. Guentzel is simply not good enough.

How does that help the Pens more than re-signing Guentzel if they have any hope of competing during the core's remaining time here?

Because that hope is stupid and the team is washed up.

Their focus should be rebuilding. Their window is closed, it's over.

 

[Gurglesons]

Their focus should be rebuilding. Their window is closed, it's over.

So once again, what does a 20-21 year old do to help that?

They will be a UFA by the time this team is competitive again if "the window is closed, it's over".

 

[bleedgreen]

Seravalli also said that IN HIS OPINION (emphasizing this), he thinks Guentzel is interested in re-signing in Carolina and it wouldn't necessarily be a rental.

I think Nikishin is flat out not being moved for Guentzel in any situation, though. Guentzel is simply not good enough.



Because that hope is stupid and the team is washed up.

Their focus should be rebuilding. Their window is closed, it's over.

I can’t see the Canes signing a 29 year old to a max term deal, that’s firmly against their plan though you never know when they’ll get away from it. If he’ll sign for less term they’d do it.

Nikishin isn’t going for Guentzel.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Not in the goal scoring department they're not and that was the whole point to my argument. Jake has a higher GPG average in the playoffs and by a wide margin. That's a fact, not opinion.

Aho's goal scoring numbers are more impressive IMO, based on the context I highlighted. Put Aho next to Crosby and Guentzel in Carolina's defensive system, and their numbers probably flip flop.

Now, you can apply a bit of nuance to it if you want . And say ''for this reason and that reason Aho's numbers are more impressive'' (when you factor different variables in). But that' becomes more of a subjective debate.

It was always a subjective debate. Using raw number makes absolutely zero sense, especially considering the sample size issues you get in the playoffs. Unless you think Zach Hyman and Sam Reinhart are better goal scorers than David Pastrnak...

There's no logical way to conclude however that Jake isn't a better post season finisher based on the raw numbers.

There's no logical way to conclude that Logan Couture isn't a better post season finisher than Alex Ovechkin based on the raw numbers.

The rest is open to interpretation which IMO anyhow, becomes a gray area.

Of course, that's my point.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

Because that hope is stupid and the team is washed up.

Their focus should be rebuilding. Their window is closed, it's over.

In that case, why aren't you advocating for a clean sweep of everyone?

It seems goofy for a team whose stars are still performing at or above their pay grade to throw in the towel without changing out the complementary types.

 

[Empoleon8771]

In that case, why aren't you advocating for a clean sweep of everyone?

It seems goofy for a team whose stars are still performing at or above their pay grade to throw in the towel without changing out the complementary types.

I am advocating for a clean sweep of everyone. They just don't need to trade everyone at the same time.

Their window is firmly shut. The core is no longer good enough to compete with the cores of other teams, and the roster is horrendously flawed outside of the core.

 

[Unsustainable]

The only situation I think we move Morrow or Nadeau would be if JG is open to extending with the trade.

When I said highly unlikely to be traded, that would be a situation where they would be.

 

[Syrinx]

If i could say that JG was going to get us to the SCFs, I dont know that i would care too much. The fact of the matter is that every player than has come in to Raleigh has struggled to play in the system for the first 20 or so game, sometimes more. That isnt just rentals. We are going to dump the pressure of our system and the "you are our goal scoring saviour" at his feet for 20 games and however many playoff games. That is a lot to count on someone that has a high probability of struggling and being susceptible to the same small sample size ebbs and flows as everyone else.

Would I care no. I would care even less if we moved Nadeau and a 1st for a player with term or control. That way I dont have to pin my hopes on a small sample size.

Jake Guentzel thinks the game on a different level than 99% of players which is why he complements Crosby better than anyone else ever has. I think he'll adjust quickly and reach a high level in a couple games. It sucks as a Pens fan to lose him but at least I'll get to see him live more.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

Aho's goal scoring numbers are more impressive IMO, based on the context I highlighted. Put Aho next to Crosby and Guentzel Carolina's defensive system, and their numbers probably flip flop.


It was always a subjective debate. Using raw number makes absolutely zero sense, especially considering the sample size issues you get in the playoffs. Unless you think Zach Hyman and Sam Reinhart are better goal scorers than David Pastrnak...

View attachment 831175

There's no logical way to conclude that Logan Couture isn't a better post season finisher than Alex Ovechkin based on the raw numbers.

View attachment 831178


Of course, that's my point.

Sample size, age during playoff runs.