LeBrun: Guentzel: Pens want prospects over picks - Carolina favorite

[CheckingLineCenter]

I think Guentzel wants to test the market based on all reporting. But I also think if he ends up in a place like Carolina or somewhere that is set up to be competitive for the next 5 years, and fits like a glove… there’s a non-zero chance he’d re-sign.

 

[Ogelthorpe]

You’re making assumptions of a lack of success to rate an organization’s worthiness. Seems a little premature, yes? How many other organizations went through the same issue before breaking through?

Put it this way, it’s hard to win championships… when you have a chance, especially if you are one of the favorites, you have to swing the bat. You don’t say “I don’t know. Maybe we win this year, but we also might miss this prospect in a couple years”

If you follow baseball at all, compare the Kansas City Royals to the Pittsburgh Pirates. Both small market teams that had a window to compete. The Pirates do what they always do and spent zero prospects or dollars to improve the team, and missed the boat and haven’t been close since. KC on the other hand went for it and moved the pieces they had to move to get to the finals twice, winning it all once.
I’d rather be a KC fan in this instance.

 

[Sideline]

I hope Dubas has the sense to settle for good draft picks if the alternative is a bunch of meh prospects.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Logic says that if the Canes’ offer is prospects-based, if Dubas wanted a deal done by last night and that he preferred prospects to picks as a return, the Canes have not yet put the “right” prospects on the table and/or Dubas is trying to squeeze the Canes by leveraging other offers.

Cat and mouse game for sure. Personally hoping the Canes pivot to Buchnevich.

Complete guess by me: Canes are offering Blake as the main prospect while Dubas wants Nadeau.

They probably settle in the middle on Morrow.

 

[Svechhammer]

Put it this way, it’s hard to win championships… when you have a chance, especially if you are one of the favorites, you have to swing the bat. You don’t say “I don’t know. Maybe we win this year, but we also might miss this prospect in a couple years”

If you follow baseball at all, compare the Kansas City Royals to the Pittsburgh Pirates. Both small market teams that had a window to compete. The Pirates do what they always do and spent zero prospects or dollars to improve the team, and missed the boat and haven’t been close since. KC on the other hand went for it and moved the pieces they had to move to get to the finals twice, winning it all once.
I’d rather be a KC fan in this instance.

You can't compare MLB to NHL or any other league with a salary cap, because there are things in place here that prevent big markets from just spending enough to crush the competitive ability of smaller markets like you see in baseball.

 

[Seanaconda]

I think Guentzel wants to test the market based on all reporting. But I also think if he ends up in a place like Carolina or somewhere that is set up to be competitive for the next 5 years, and fits like a glove… there’s a non-zero chance he’d re-sign.

Tbh I'm surprised it's not more common to wait and see if it's a fit lol why not finish your contract and see if you like the place before you decide to live somewhere new for 5 years or however long lol

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

Put it this way, it’s hard to win championships… when you have a chance, especially if you are one of the favorites, you have to swing the bat. You don’t say “I don’t know. Maybe we win this year, but we also might miss this prospect in a couple years”

If you follow baseball at all, compare the Kansas City Royals to the Pittsburgh Pirates. Both small market teams that had a window to compete. The Pirates do what they always do and spent zero prospects or dollars to improve the team, and missed the boat and haven’t been close since. KC on the other hand went for it and moved the pieces they had to move to get to the finals twice, winning it all once.
I’d rather be a KC fan in this instance.

The Canes are a lot more like the Braves than the Pirates. Braves dont push in their chips either and their best run was with 3 really small additions that caught the team on fire. KC made one big acquisition in Cueto that year. He wasnt great during the regular season and had decent success (2 good outings and one really bad one) in the playoffs but wasnt a huge part of the team. Im not sure that is the best analogy to use.

There isnt one solution to winning a championship. Its just hard and things have to align for you.

 

[Ryder71]

He should be packing his bags instead.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

Tbh I'm surprised it's not more common to wait and see if it's a fit lol why not finish your contract and see if you like the place before you decide to live somewhere new for 5 years or however long lol

Agree.

Also from a team perspective, it feels prudent to wait it out. Sure you spent a lot on acquiring the player but if it’s not a perfect fit I’d rather wipe my hands clean than be tied to the player a big cap hit for 5+ years.

 

[hockeykicker]

well seems like if he is traded, he will be pretty much ready to play

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Arbitrary you say? Those are their respective playoff numbers. And Jake would be sought after to contribute for that specific purpose. Oh, and if you're suggesting that Jake is a crosby creation then fine, don't trade for him.

I never once suggested that. Also, I'm a devils fan.

I'm just telling you what his numbers are in comparison. And now we're gonna detract from him because of the opponent? You know what's reasonable to assume? That some team will give up the pieces necessary considering there's a bidding war (and I don't care which team it is).

I never once disagreed with any of this. I only took issue with you saying that Guentzel would be the team's best finisher by a fair margin, which I don't think is supported by the evidence.

But his playoff numbers are very impressive when compared with Aho.

Aho's numbers are a hair more impressive IMO when you consider the context of opponents and linemates. But we're really splitting hairs here.

 

[Ugene Magic]

Complete guess by me: Canes are offering Blake as the main prospect while Dubas wants Nadeau.

They probably settle in the middle on Morrow.

The Canes are looking to lowball. That's in their nature so asking for anywhere near their best is like pulling teeth. They don't want to let go of 1 let alone 2.

 

[Ogelthorpe]

The Canes are a lot more like the Braves than the Pirates. Braves dont push in their chips either and their best run was with 3 really small additions that caught the team on fire. KC made one big acquisition in Cueto that year. He wasnt great during the regular season and had decent success (2 good outings and one really bad one) in the playoffs but wasnt a huge part of the team. Im not sure that is the best analogy to use.

There isnt one solution to winning a championship. Its just hard and things have to align for you.

Ok, let’s look at it from this perspective. Let’s say you are Sebastian Aho. You are one of the favorites to win the Stanley Cup. All your best competition are adding pieces for a cup run.
Now, you have a chance to get Jake Guentzel on your wing…. A proven playoff performer who has been there and won, and knows what it takes to win it all. He would be the best linemate you ever had! He increases your chance of winning it all.

Do you care if your organization has to give up Bradly Nadeau and a pick to make that happen?

 

[SeanMoneyHands]

This board will explode if Vegas get Guentzel too haha. We all know Vegas is going to add yet another player.

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

Ok, let’s look at it from this perspective. Let’s say you are Sebastian Aho. You are one of the favorites to win the Stanley Cup. All your best competition are adding pieces for a cup run.
Now, you have a chance to get Jake Guentzel on your wing…. A proven playoff performer who has been there and won, and knows what it takes to win it all. He would be the best linemate you ever had! He increases your chance of winning it all.

Do you care if your organization has to give up Bradly Nadeau and a pick to make that happen?

If i could say that JG was going to get us to the SCFs, I dont know that i would care too much. The fact of the matter is that every player than has come in to Raleigh has struggled to play in the system for the first 20 or so game, sometimes more. That isnt just rentals. We are going to dump the pressure of our system and the "you are our goal scoring saviour" at his feet for 20 games and however many playoff games. That is a lot to count on someone that has a high probability of struggling and being susceptible to the same small sample size ebbs and flows as everyone else.

Would I care no. I would care even less if we moved Nadeau and a 1st for a player with term or control. That way I dont have to pin my hopes on a small sample size.

 

[Chrispy]

Ok, let’s look at it from this perspective. Let’s say you are Sebastian Aho. You are one of the favorites to win the Stanley Cup. All your best competition are adding pieces for a cup run.
Now, you have a chance to get Jake Guentzel on your wing…. A proven playoff performer who has been there and won, and knows what it takes to win it all. He would be the best linemate you ever had! He increases your chance of winning it all.

Do you care if your organization has to give up Bradly Nadeau and a pick to make that happen?

If you're Aho you care about the long term viability of the franchise because you're signed to play there through 2032. And you know you have a 23 year old linemate signed through 2029 who has all the tools to be the best line mate he's ever had even if you make the Guentzel trade.

Aho (and Svechnikov) have good reasons to trust the management to keep the franchise in the Stanley Cup hunt annually for the duration of their long-term deals rather than going for it one year and having to scramble to make the playoffs a year or two from now.

You'd make a better argument with Staal or Burns here.

 

[BenningHurtsMySoul]

Carolina will likely pull this off. I think the Canucks will keep Lindholm and settle for Toffoli/Zucker, then sign Kessel and call it a day.

 

[Ogelthorpe]

If i could say that JG was going to get us to the SCFs, I dont know that i would care too much. The fact of the matter is that every player than has come in to Raleigh has struggled to play in the system for the first 20 or so game, sometimes more. That isnt just rentals. We are going to dump the pressure of our system and the "you are our goal scoring saviour" at his feet for 20 games and however many playoff games. That is a lot to count on someone that has a high probability of struggling and being susceptible to the same small sample size ebbs and flows as everyone else.

Would I care no. I would care even less if we moved Nadeau and a 1st for a player with term or control. That way I dont have to pin my hopes on a small sample size.

Do you think that if Guentzel would play 20 games plus playoffs in Carolina and he liked it there, that it would give you an advantage on resigning him, and thus making him that player with term?

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

Do you think that if Guentzel would play 20 games plus playoffs in Carolina and he liked it there, that it would give you an advantage on resigning him, and thus making him that player with term?

sure, but that is also a heck of a gamble knowing our management team.

1. we dont pay extra for declining years. So we would offer what he will likely be worth the entire contract instead of paying prime production value throughout the contract.

2. we'll likely ask him to take a small haircut to fit in the rest of our roster. We have 31.6 million in space but assuming Necas and Jarvis cost us around 14 million together and Martinook around 1.5 mil to keep, we have 16 million for a top 6 winger, top 4 RHD, our bottom pairing defense, our 4C, 4LW and and any roster extras. Guentzel would throw a massive wrench in that.

i dont see it as a strong possibility unless we are trading Necas in the offseason for a cheap 2RD.

 

[Chrispy]

Do you think that if Guentzel would play 20 games plus playoffs in Carolina and he liked it there, that it would give you an advantage on resigning him, and thus making him that player with term?

Maybe, but Carolina has been hesitant to pay any 30 year old players market value for long-term deals.

It's why Trocheck left. It's why Hamilton left. It's why most Canes fans are expecting Pesce and Skjei to move on after this season, and possibly Teravainen if he doesn't take a decent deal to keep playing with Aho.

One of the things they have made a point of doing is avoiding long-term anchor contracts. They made an exception for Aho as their #1C. I see them making an exception for Slavin next year as a #1D. I don't see them making an exception for a top line wing, as good as Guentzel is.

 

[Ogelthorpe]

Carolina will likely pull this off. I think the Canucks will keep Lindholm and settle for Toffoli/Zucker, then sign Kessel and call it a day.

I think they will too.

 

[Chrispy]

I'm talking about building a franchise here. And the point is that every prospect you have is another shot at the target of landing that top line wing internally. Are multiple players of that potential worth 20 games of a player and one potential playoff run?

They've hit on Nikishin. They think they've got someone who can play soon in Morrow. Many of these "prospects" are potential pieces for years to come. That's the value this front office is working to have. And that's the front office strategy that Aho and Svechnikov have chosen to sign up with long term.

Again, if I were making the deals at this deadline, I'd take the deal proposed here to STL and get Buchnevich for this year and next. If there's an added price, it's worth it for the additional year.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I think the fact that Carolina is rumored to be willing to bend in this case for Guentzel suggests they're not going to be operating as the same old Hurricanes in this deal. I also think that getting spurred by the Canucks for Pettersson may light a bit of a fire under their asses into making a more aggressive move.

I'm skeptical they do Nadeau for Guentzel, but I think Morrow and Blake for Guentzel as the main chunk of the trade seems pretty reasonable.

 

[Gurglesons]

The more I look at who is rumored to be interested in Guentzel the more I realize the return will be pitiful.

The only teams that drastically need to improve at LW are Carolina and Vancouver.

Carolina already killed Dubas in a trade once.

Vancouver doesn't really "need" to make another big add.

This is most likely shaping up to be another absolute turd from the boy wonder.

 

[Ugene Magic]

I think the fact that Carolina is rumored to be willing to bend in this case for Guentzel suggests they're not going to be operating as the same old Hurricanes in this deal. I also think that getting spurred by the Canucks for Pettersson may light a bit of a fire under their asses into making a more aggressive move.

I'm skeptical they do Nadeau for Guentzel, but I think Morrow and Blake for Guentzel as the main chunk of the trade seems pretty reasonable.

I put them as, I'll believe it when the trade is verified. It would be better if they came out of nowhere to save on all this wasted talk.