LeBrun: Guentzel: Pens want prospects over picks - Carolina favorite

[3ladesof5teel]

End of the day if JG isn't coming with an extension the return will likely be as disappointing as the season with where expectations are.

You might be able to get a few teams in a bidding war and GMJR is definitely a wild card when it comes to it but if you can get something fair I guess it's a win but nonetheless will still be disappointing with just the way the season has shaped up.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

Sid only missed 1 game that series, not 3 (coincidentally, the only game in the series where Guentzel didn't score a goal). In total, Crosby assisted on 7 of Guentzel's 8 goals in that series.

That seems like an arbitrary way of looking at it, especially when you consider the Canes have faced much stingier competition than the Pens in the playoffs in during this span, facing Boston x3, NYI x2, TB, & Florida. Aho only managed 10 goals in 35 games vs those opponents, but feasted on the softer defensive teams in the same way Guentzel did. Guentzel scored 31 of his 34 goals in only 37 games against teams like Columbus, Philadelphia, Washington, Nashville, & NYR. But only managed 3 goals in 21 games vs stingier opponents (like the Islanders and 2020 Habs). That's not to take anything away from his tremendous playoff goal scoring, but I think it's reasonable to assume that he'd have less goals if he had to play 20 game vs Boston instead of vs Columbus and Philadelphia.

It's also a pretty small sample size when compared to their careers. Finishing ability doesn't magically go away.

Regardless, you really can't ignore the impact of playing with 87 (and 71 on the PP). Crosby assisted on ~60% of Guentzel's playoff goals. Imagine how the numbers would look if it were Aho who was next to Crosby and Guentzel on his own in Carolina.

And how many points did Crosby have that playoffs where Guentzel didn't score?

Works both ways.

Guentzel is what he's advertised as - a high IQ clinical finisher who scores in the playoffs more consistently than any other active winger as long as he's playing with an elite center to get him the puck in the danger areas.

Any contender that has an elite center and needs playoff goals should break the bank for him. If the Pens don't get a great return, they should keep Guentzel and flush every other forward that isn't Crosby or Malkin. Return aside, that'd be my preference anyway.

 

[molon labe]

And how many points did Crosby have that playoffs where Guentzel didn't score?

Works both ways.

Guentzel is what he's advertised as - a high IQ clinical finisher who scores in the playoffs more consistently than any other active winger as long as he's playing with an elite center.

Any contender that has an elite center and needs playoff goals should break the bank for him. If the Pens don't get a great return, they should keep Guentzel and flush every other forward that isn't Crosby or Malkin. Return aside, that'd be my preference anyway.

The off the mark argument about Guentzel / Crosby is that he [Jake] is not only getting points because of Crosby. Yes, some plays Crosby creates that nobody else would - but often Jake is just so damn good at being in the right place -> and Sid is second to none in hitting guys in the right place. Over his career Crosby has had some brutal linemates who either did not put themselves in a position to score, couldn't finish, weren't expecting the pass, etc etc....so Sid would play 4D chess to get them open to finish (the simplest example would be Kunitz 2OT goal).

Jake scores a bunch because he finishes plays. It's not only Sid he can finish from - he's done it with Geno plenty. That's been our team though. Our crappy 3C's don't play high-IQ hockey where they're making those creative plays - so how/why would Jake be finishing them in the limited time he's had?

If you have a C that can find guys (their job) - he'll be that guy they find and he'll finish the play. Will he fly down the ice, toe drag, and snipe like his first season or two? Unlikely - but he'll clean pucks around the net, tip anything and everything sent his way, and finish cross crease/cross ice passes with ease.

 

[Ryder71]

Aho's numbers are a hair more impressive IMO when you consider the context of opponents and linemates. But we're really splitting hairs here.

Not in the goal scoring department they're not and that was the whole point to my argument. Jake has a higher GPG average in the playoffs and by a wide margin. That's a fact, not opinion.

Now, you can apply a bit of nuance to it if you want . And say ''for this reason and that reason Aho's numbers are more impressive'' (when you factor different variables in). But that' becomes more of a subjective debate. There's no logical way to conclude however that Jake isn't a better post season finisher based on the raw numbers. The rest is open to interpretation which IMO anyhow, becomes a gray area.

 

[Empoleon8771]

End of the day if JG isn't coming with an extension the return will likely be as disappointing as the season with where expectations are.

You might be able to get a few teams in a bidding war and GMJR is definitely a wild card when it comes to it but if you can get something fair I guess it's a win but nonetheless will still be disappointing with just the way the season has shaped up.

The only way the return should be disappointing is if you had unreasonable expectations to begin with.

They were never going to get a prospect like Lekkerimaki (VAN), Perreault (NYR) or Nikishin (CAR) back for Guentzel. At best, it would be a Nadeau caliber guy.

The expectation for Penguins fans for a Guentzel return should be a B+ headliner prospect/young player, another prospect and a 1st, or something similar to that in value. Something along the lines of Othmann, Jones and a 1st from the NYR or Morrow, Blake and a 2nd from Carolina.

 

[spockBokk]

Seravalli hints that Dubas wants Nikishin, and that ain’t happening. No wonder he hasn’t been traded if that’s the ask.

 

[Ryder71]

The only way the return should be disappointing is if you had unreasonable expectations to begin with.

They were never going to get a prospect like Lekkerimaki (VAN), Perreault (NYR) or Nikishin (CAR) back for Guentzel. At best, it would be a Nadeau caliber guy.

The expectation for Penguins fans for a Guentzel return should be a B+ headliner prospect/young player, another prospect and a 1st, or something similar to that in value. Something along the lines of Othmann, Jones and a 1st from the NYR or Morrow, Blake and a 2nd from Carolina.

Nadeau will do. That would be a player the fan base could look forward to in a couple years. That at a minimum would provide an element of hope.

 

[Unsustainable]

Canes prospects from my POV:

Untouchable:
Nikishin, its clear on how they view him

Extremely unlikely available:
Nadeau, looks like our next Jarvis type.
Morrow, Burns 1 season left, Pesce, Chatfield and TDA all up in the air.

Cant say how they view the rest, FUS stayed the longest in camp. Suzuki keeps getting hurt. Pono is our 1st call up and NHL ready. Rykov is climbing up. Heimosalmi and Blake are rising up.

 

[Three On Zero]

Dubas is doing the Dubas special and overplaying his hand, this will be a Hanifin 2.0 return where it’s good but not what’s expected

 

[Ogelthorpe]

I think the fact that Carolina is rumored to be willing to bend in this case for Guentzel suggests they're not going to be operating as the same old Hurricanes in this deal. I also think that getting spurred by the Canucks for Pettersson may light a bit of a fire under their asses into making a more aggressive move.

I'm skeptical they do Nadeau for Guentzel, but I think Morrow and Blake for Guentzel as the main chunk of the trade seems pretty reasonable.

I’ve seen a lot of people who say Morrow is a better prospect than Nadeau.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I’ve seen a lot of people who say Morrow is a better prospect than Nadeau.

I have Nadeau slightly ahead. Morrow and Othmann are comparable to Yager, while Nadeau is a bit ahead of all 3 IMO.

 

[Zbynek]

They were never going to get a prospect like Lekkerimaki (VAN), Perreault (NYR) or Nikishin (CAR) back for Guentzel. At best, it would be a Nadeau caliber guy.

All reports indicate Dubas is pushing for Nikishin from Carolina. Both you and I know Rutherford well. He could absolutely have a last-minute meltdown and send Lekkerimaki our way

 

[krutovsdonut]

Jake scores a bunch because he finishes plays. It's not only Sid he can finish from - he's done it with Geno plenty. That's been our team though. Our crappy 3C's don't play high-IQ hockey where they're making those creative plays - so how/why would Jake be finishing them in the limited time he's had?

this is not the endorsement of guentzel you think it is

 

[Ryder71]

I’ve seen a lot of people who say Morrow is a better prospect than Nadeau.

Truthfully, I think we should try for both.

 

[molon labe]

this is not the endorsement of guentzel you think it is

Explain what my endorsement is...or are you just passive aggressive by nature.

Jake is what he is:
- No team getting him is looking for a line driver
- He's an elite finisher who...you know...finishes shit that your C / PMD is dishing. That's coveted.

 

[Ryder71]

All reports indicate Dubas is pushing for Nikishin from Carolina. Both you and I know Rutherford well. He could absolutely have a last-minute meltdown and send Lekkerimaki our way

I think we'll get good return but even I wouldn't push for Nikishin. Nadeau most certainly, Morrow sure. If we got both I'd be more than content. We'd retain and take on a cap dump if need be.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Seravalli hints that Dubas wants Nikishin, and that ain’t happening. No wonder he hasn’t been traded if that’s the ask.

I don't put too much stock in it. It's fine to ask for Nikishin, but suspect that ended discussions quickly.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

Dubas is doing the Dubas special and overplaying his hand, this will be a Hanifin 2.0 return where it’s good but not what’s expected

What's "overplaying his hand"?

The only active players with career playoff goals-per-game better than Guentzel are Mack and Drai, and he's on thr right side of 30. Last time he was in the playoffs, he led the league in playoff goals when his team was eliminated.

If a team wants playoff goals for a run, they aren't getting anything that sniffs Guentzel...outside of Guentzel. and Dubas can always re-sign him if he doesn't like the offers he sees.

How do you overplay that?

 

[Zbynek]

Explain what my endorsement is...or are you just passive aggressive by nature.

Jake is what he is:
- No team getting him is looking for a line driver
- He's an elite finisher who...you know...finishes shit that your C / PMD is dishing. That's coveted.

Jake might not be a "line driver" but I wouldn't call him a "complementary winger" either. He's made some absolutely stellar, highlight-reel, individual effort plays in Pittsburgh. He's a bonified 1W and he's the full package. Pretty much no weaknesses to his game.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Seravalli hints that Dubas wants Nikishin, and that ain’t happening. No wonder he hasn’t been traded if that’s the ask.

I just listened to this (at least the Penguins section), they did not mention Nikishin once. Was that mentioned during the discussion with the Hurricanes?

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

this is not the endorsement of guentzel you think it is

Except it is.

 

[Gurglesons]

What's "overplaying his hand"?

The only active players with career playoff goals-per-game better than Guentzel are Mack and Drai, and he's on thr right side of 30. Last time he was in the playoffs, he led the league in playoff goals when his team was eliminated.

If a team wants playoff goals for a run, they aren't getting anything that sniffs Guentzel...outside of Guentzel. and Dubas can always re-sign him if he doesn't like the offers he sees.

How do you overplay that?

Letting other teams get back up plans while he continues to hardball with a piece that isn't as attractive as Penguins fans want it to be.

 

[spockBokk]

I just listened to this (at least the Penguins section), they did not mention Nikishin once. Was that mentioned during the discussion with the Hurricanes?

That would be the next logical place to listen.

 

[Three On Zero]

What's "overplaying his hand"?

The only active players with career playoff goals-per-game better than Guentzel are Mack and Drai, and he's on thr right side of 30. Last time he was in the playoffs, he led the league in playoff goals when his team was eliminated.

If a team wants playoff goals for a run, they aren't getting anything that sniffs Guentzel...outside of Guentzel. and Dubas can always re-sign him if he doesn't like the offers he sees.

How do you overplay that?

Have you not been around with him in Toronto?

He’s pricing himself out of the market while teams looks elsewhere.

 

[Ryder71]

Canes prospects from my POV:

Untouchable:
Nikishin, its clear on how they view him

Extremely unlikely available:
Nadeau, looks like our next Jarvis type.
Morrow, Burns 1 season left, Pesce, Chatfield and TDA all up in the air.

Cant say how they view the rest, FUS stayed the longest in camp. Suzuki keeps getting hurt. Pono is our 1st call up and NHL ready. Rykov is climbing up. Heimosalmi and Blake are rising up.

If you're not gonna pony up Nadeau then there's no point. You gotta give to get. We don't want your 6th or 8th best prospect that'll top out in the ECHL or get a cup of coffee in the AHL. That doesn't do anything.