LeBrun: Guentzel: Pens want prospects over picks - Carolina favorite

[CheckingLineCenter]

Rags should def move Perreault over Othmann since Othmann is closer to the NHL

 

[Chrispy]

While the last sentence is an opinion you are welcome to, it also shows how conditioned you have been to accept “less”.
You basically just said you’d take the vastly inferior player because you have 1 more year of control.

Vastly inferior?

Buchnevich has 191 points in 196 games (0.98 PPG) the past 3 years since moving to STL.
Guentzel has 209 points in 204 games (1.02 PPG) the past 3 years.

Now ask yourself how much of a difference you are getting in 20 games between those 2 players? 1-2 points? Based on the PPG the past 3 years, you'd expect 0.8 more points out of Guentzel over 20 games vs Buchnevich.

Guentzel has shown PPG consistently in the playoffs, Buchnevich was PPG in STL's playoff run. There's no guarantee either of them hits in Carolina this postseason, but I'd say the odds are comparable for a hot run in the playoffs.

The added year is a huge boost in value when compared to the difference in production in a limited number of games remaining this season.

 

[SEALBound]

On TJMS, Friedman thinks that Carolina made its offer. Other teams (New York, Vegas, Colorado) needed to get their business done to get into the Guentzel market.

For the Dubas overplayed his hand crowd.

I don't think there is an "overplayed his hand" situation here.

I thin kDubas set the price HIGH. Understandably and respectably high for the top LW that's ever been available at the TDL in decades.

If a team meets the price, you do it because it makes sense as an organization to do it.

If a team doesn't meet the price, you keep Jake and resign him.

I don't think this is a Hall or Vanek situation where you have to dump him by any means necessary. This won't be up to Dubas. This will be up to the teams that want Jake. They know the price. Either they want him, or they don't.

 

[Three On Zero]

It's all guess work and speculating.

The longer it takes, the worse it’ll get

 

[Ryder71]

Unless you think Hyman and Reinhart are better goal scorers than Pastrnak all of the sudden?


Ahh so Couture is a better finisher than Ovechkin.

In the post season, yes. Some players are clutch, others not so much. What, you don't believe certain players can elevate their play while others who are more accomplished in the regular season find the post season more difficult to score? Happens quite a lot. And that's what those numbers suggest.

 

[Petes2424]

Seems every other team rushed to trade their players yesterday…. Now those remaining have a chance to see what their competition added, and there are less options available….. Chess, not checkers.

In years past I’d probably agree. Problem is, the amount of quality assets so-called contenders don’t have left, makes you think the market is pretty dry. Carolina usually doesn’t make deals like this, and the teams were now hearing about, have pretty much been pure speculation by those insider types because they have prospects, or a team liked shiny new toys, etc, etc.

This one may end up being where Lou and the Islanders sneak in to get their guy, at a fair price but nothing crazy.

Isles are chasing a playoff spot, Detroit’s pacemaker is out injured, and Lou’s always lurking in the background for scoring.

 

[Ugene Magic]

The longer it takes, the worse it’ll get

The worse part is, Canes have been out of it for some time. There's no point in settling for scraps. The Pens would get more promise re-signing Jake.

 

[Three On Zero]

The worse part is, Canes have been out of it for some time. There's no point in settling for scraps. The Pens would get more promise re-signing Jake.

The idea that this is stirring up a bidding war is hilarious for people who know how Dubas operates.

 

[SEALBound]

Vastly inferior?

Buchnevich has 191 points in 196 games (0.98 PPG) the past 3 years since moving to STL.
Guentzel has 209 points in 204 games (1.02 PPG) the past 3 years.

Now ask yourself how much of a difference you are getting in 20 games between those 2 players? 1-2 points? Based on the PPG the past 3 years, you'd expect 0.8 more points out of Guentzel over 20 games vs Buchnevich.

Guentzel has shown PPG consistently in the playoffs, Buchnevich was PPG in STL's playoff run. There's no guarantee either of them hits in Carolina this postseason, but I'd say the odds are comparable for a hot run in the playoffs.

The added year is a huge boost in value when compared to the difference in production in a limited number of games remaining this season.

Cool. Do playoff scoring now.

Buch was not PPG. 11 in 12 is close, but when it's 1 goal in 12...

Teams want Guentzel because he's a proven playoff scorer. I imagine the teams that want him aren't focused on RS next year.

 

[krutovsdonut]

Jake might not be a "line driver" but I wouldn't call him a "complementary winger" either. He's made some absolutely stellar, highlight-reel, individual effort plays in Pittsburgh. He's a bonified 1W and he's the full package. Pretty much no weaknesses to his game.

i would like to drill down a ittle into what you guys are saying about guentzel because you keep describing his possession/play driving game in terms that really limit his value for me and you may be underselling him. let me try this with analogies. can you relate gentzel to the following characterstics.

canucks have miller, boeser and garland as wingers.

miller drives play and is an elite finisher as well as a power forward. he's a true 1w. he can create and finish scoring chances for himself and his linemates in key situations by forcing the play.

boeser is an elite finisher who is also a clutch finisher and also opportunistic in taking advantage of mistakes but he doesn't force mistakes. he can't really drive play although he is really good at facilitating it for linemates who can. he's also not physical. i'd call him an elite complimentary 1w.

garland is an elite play driver up to a point but a poor finisher with physical limits. he can consistently drive play and possession on the third line out of nothing, but in key situations he can be limited physically and he doesn't work well with top 6 players.

garland is a very unusual player who illustrates the value of play driving for its own sake. there is nobody i'd rather have the puck with a scoring chance and the game on the line than boeser, but garland has arguably been more valuable to the team this year. the ozone possession time from the third line he drives has been instrumental in generating both momentum and scoring chances for his own line and other lines.

so i'd like to know more detail about what possession/play driving contibution guentzel makes other than finishing.

 

[EpiPen]

Vastly inferior?

Buchnevich has 191 points in 196 games (0.98 PPG) the past 3 years since moving to STL.
Guentzel has 209 points in 204 games (1.02 PPG) the past 3 years.

Now ask yourself how much of a difference you are getting in 20 games between those 2 players? 1-2 points? Based on the PPG the past 3 years, you'd expect 0.8 more points out of Guentzel over 20 games vs Buchnevich.

Guentzel has shown PPG consistently in the playoffs, Buchnevich was PPG in STL's playoff run. There's no guarantee either of them hits in Carolina this postseason, but I'd say the odds are comparable for a hot run in the playoffs.

The added year is a huge boost in value when compared to the difference in production in a limited number of games remaining this

Vastly inferior?

Buchnevich has 191 points in 196 games (0.98 PPG) the past 3 years since moving to STL.
Guentzel has 209 points in 204 games (1.02 PPG) the past 3 years.

Now ask yourself how much of a difference you are getting in 20 games between those 2 players? 1-2 points? Based on the PPG the past 3 years, you'd expect 0.8 more points out of Guentzel over 20 games vs Buchnevich.

Guentzel has shown PPG consistently in the playoffs, Buchnevich was PPG in STL's playoff run. There's no guarantee either of them hits in Carolina this postseason, but I'd say the odds are comparable for a hot run in the playoffs.

The added year is a huge boost in value when compared to the difference in production in a limited number of games remaining this season.

LOL. Nice cherry picking stats. Buchnevich only has 1 goal and 12 pts over 20 playoff games. Guentzel has 34 goals and 58 Pts in 58 playoff games. There's a HUGE difference in playoff production.

 

[andora]

Guentzel scored well in the two runs.. then had 3 shitty series.. then one good series

Come on dubas.. hands getting clammy yet?

 

[Chrispy]

Cool. Do playoff scoring now.

Buch was not PPG. 11 in 12 is close, but when it's 1 goal in 12...

Teams want Guentzel because he's a proven playoff scorer. I imagine the teams that want him aren't focused on RS next year.

Guentzel was PPG once in the past 5 playoffs.
1 in 4 games in 18-19
3 in 4 games in 19-20
2 in 6 games in 20-21
10 in 7 games in 21-22
No playoffs in 22-23.

The playoffs are often a roll of the dice for even very good players.

 

[Big Daddy Cane]

I mean, there's a huge difference in perceived upside for a guy putting up 50 goals in his draft+1 year and a guy who's having a good (not amazing, just good) start to his pro career in the AHL in his draft+3 year.

I really like him as a prospect, so I'm not talking down what he is, but he was viewed way differently 2 years ago than he is now.



What does he mean with this? That these teams need to get their offers in for Guentzel?

His theory was that those teams needed certainty (presumably meaning remaining cap space and trade assets) at the positions they addressed to be able to be serious players in the market.

I’ll post the link when available.

 

[EpiPen]

Guentzel was PPG once in the past 5 playoffs.
1 in 4 games in 18-19
3 in 4 games in 19-20
2 in 6 games in 20-21
10 in 7 games in 21-22
No playoffs in 22-23.

The playoffs are often a roll of the dice for even very good players.

58 game sample size is a massive sample size for playoff games. Not a "roll of a dice" he's maintained a ppg.

 

[Ugene Magic]

The idea that this is stirring up a bidding war is hilarious for people who know how Dubas operates.

This is more about how Carolina operates.

 

[EpiPen]

Guentzel scored well in the two runs.. then had 3 shitty series.. then one good series

Come on dubas.. hands getting clammy yet?

Those 3 series Guentzel actually played really well to be honest.

 

[Chrispy]

58 game sample size is a massive sample size for playoff games. Not a "roll of a dice" he's maintained a ppg.

And despite being a "consistent playoff performer", he failed to produce offensively in 2019, 2020, and 2021.

That matches up with my experience in multiple sports: your best regular season players are more likely to produce than your lower line regular season players, but there's a lot of variation in any given playoff.

 

[Zbynek]

garland is an elite play driver up to a point

If that's your assessment, then Guentzel is the second coming of Jari Kurri. Hope that helps!

 

[EpiPen]

And despite being a "consistent playoff performer", he failed to produce offensively in 2019, 2020, and 2021.

He still played very well and 3 points in 4 games isn't a failure in production.

 

[Zbynek]

Guentzel scored well in the two runs.. then had 3 shitty series.. then one good series

Come on dubas.. hands getting clammy yet?

Guentzel only has one Cup to his name. But he also has zero bad postseasons to his name. He was a lone bright spot in every shitty series for the Pens since 2019

 

[krutovsdonut]

If that's your assessment, then Guentzel is the second coming of Jari Kurri. Hope that helps!

that tells me all i need to know about your ability to assess hockey players. thanks. and bye.

 

[andora]

Those 3 series Guentzel actually played really well to be honest.

Cool

I like him he is strong

Guentzel only has one Cup to his name. But he also has zero bad postseasons to his name. He was a lone bright spot in every shitty series for the Pens since 2019

I said two good runs meaning to his name

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

In the post season, yes. Some players are clutch, others not so much. What, you don't believe certain players can elevate their play while others who are more accomplished in the regular season find the post season more difficult to score? Happens quite a lot. And that's what those numbers suggest.

The numbers don't suggest that to anyone with knowledge of sample sizes. Just like they don't suggest that Zach Hyman is a better goal scorer than Pastrnak.

 

[Ryder71]

The numbers don't suggest that to anyone with knowledge of sample sizes. Just like they don't suggest that Zach Hyman is a better goal scorer than Pastrnak.

So, players in the post season can't elevate their respective play above their customary RS levels? Conversely, other players with gawdy RS numbers and with more scrutiny to their play have a tougher time producing?

You believe because they're dealing in a smaller sample size that those numbers are either irrelevant or inaccurate. I see it as when the lights are the brightest some step up their game and others don't.