Grub's Canucks & NHL News, Rumours, and & Fantasy GM | The Boys of Summer

[Diversification]

Vegas traded Krebs (similar valued prospect to Lekkerimaki is now at the time), Tuch, and a 1st round pick (Ostlund) for Eichel.

Florida grabbed Tkachuk in an equivalent value trade. Bennett Forsling Verhaege etc etc etc

Colorado traded Barrie (a top 4 defenseman at the time despite his flaws), Kerfoot (similar to Hoglander), and a B prospect for Kadri. Traded Justin Barron (a 1st round, top 50 RHD prospect) and a 2nd for Lehkonnen, a 2nd + 3rd for Burakovsky, and 2 2nds for Toews.

Blues traded 2 1sts for Schenn, Thompson, a 1st and 2nd + 2 depth players for ROR.

These guys won cups within 2 years of these aggressive transactions happening. Willander and Lekkerimaki are years away from contributing. If there’s guys like BTkachuk, Konecny, Theodore whoever available, I’m putting all my cards on the table.

this was Gillis biggest problem in that era. Hodgson, Shroeder, 2011 1st and 2 3rds, 2012 1st and a 2nd, 2013 1st and a 3rd. In the end, those picks never amounted to anything.

Even with Tampa, literally all of their quality depth came through free agency and late round draft picks that they developed. A long shot 3rd rounder who smoked cigarettes every day back in 2014 with poor fitness turns into a star. they went out and got Cernak, Sergachev, and McDonough etc

TLDR: go all out.

Jack Eichel, Matthew Tkachuk, Nazem Kadri, Ryan O'Reilly, Dawson Mercer...

 

[rypper]

I would trade any prospect, younger player in an Eichel type trade. I would not in a Kadri type trade.

 

[oceanchild]

I think the Canucks are eyeing Dawson Mercer as a trade target. He's a RHC that is trending to RW, but both scenarios could work for the Canucks.

As a RW, he would solidify the scoring next to Pettersson. His defensive metrics weren't great, but NJ was a mess last year so grain of salt.

It would take Hoglander plus the clearing of Poolman's salary (elsewhere). Or Suter + Poolman's salary + picks. He also probably gets anywhere from $3.36m AAV to about $4.32m on a 2-3 year bridge deal, which fits the money going out.

Mercer gives them centre utility in a pinch, and Boeser insurance just in case.

This would obviously take them out of the running for a #3 Dman addition, unless it's a money-in/money-out scenario later on.

I like it, we need a #3 more IMO

 

[theguardianII]

Some off season fantasy content.

Boeser and Bains? for Ehlers
Garland and Aman? for Necas

Maybe some futures? or Karlsson? and a pick or a little more? for Rutger Mcgroarty. Winnipeg might want an NHL ready player back. Podkolzin?

​

 

[TruGr1t]

Hoglander is an interesting one for me.

He’s not going to shoot 20%+ again without some good luck, but he still had 18 xG last year, so 15% might not be out of the question. You always have to worry those sorts of outlier seasons are not sustainable, but he generated xG at a similar rate in 2021/22 so there is starting to be a bit of a track record there.

You also don’t normally see players with strong possession numbers like he has need to rely on percentages to put up decent point totals, but his strong possession numbers are driven more by limiting chances against rather than generating a lot of offence. With him and Pettersson on the ice at 5v5 last year the Canucks gave up 1.88 xGA/60 - for context only Jordan Staal and Jordan Martinook gave up less amongst forwards with 800+ 5v5 minutes. Pettersson had a 60% xGF rate playing with Hoglander and 49% without him.

There are big questions as to whether either of those things are repeatable, so I don’t blame the team if they move him to avoid the risk he comes crashing down to earth, particularly since Tocchet does not seem to love him. But the upside is there in a way that isn’t always the case with a player that goes on a SH% driven bender.

I think it's pretty straightforward for the team in terms of Hoglander. They now have quite a bit of forward depth in terms of guys who are probably expected to generate 15+ goals next season in the top nine. A lot of these players are versatile wingers who are fairly good defensively and can move around the line-up. Hoglander is a nice depth piece due to the goal and possession metrics, but he's not totally core and you can probably lose him without overly impacting the line-up. Given he has value right now, it makes some sense to move him (assuming it's good value) for a piece that addresses areas where you don't have as much depth (ie. right-shot forwards and defensemen). The trick is the cap numbers since he's relatively cheap, but that's also why he has value on his current deal.

You have a surplus of these types of left-shot top nine wingers, so moving one to address holes makes some sense, and he's the obvious candidate.

 

[TruGr1t]

Per Drance on a potential value UFA signing:

Could the Canucks attempt to replicate the success they found signing Suter last August once again this summer? They’re certainly considering it, although it doesn’t seem like team leadership sees a player of comparable quality still available on the open market.

There’s no specific positional focus for Canucks leadership, either. A defender or a centre is modestly more likely to pique Vancouver’s interest than another body on the wings, but if the club opts to make an add during the dog days of summer, it’ll do so based on individual value and fit, rather than addressing any sort of pressing depth needs.

A smaller deal — below the amount the team could bury in the NHL without a cap charge — is the more likely route for Vancouver, but even a more modest addition isn’t assured, given the Canucks’ focus on internal competition and maximizing their cap flexibility for big-game shopping in-season.

Drance's candidates:

Tyler Johnson
Nick Cousins
Sammy Blais
Tyson Barrie
Justin Schultz
Oliver Kylington

 

[credulous]

So in terms of looking at the future, you're on the record as saying you would deal Lekkerimaki or WIllander to get Mercer?

Look, I like Mercer a lot more than some people do. I watched a fair bit of his first two years and saw shades of Parise. I know he had a bad year and I think there is a chance to get a decent asset there if they sour on him.

But you don't go for a distressed asset RFA who is going to require more than we can afford, and deal one of our two upcoming (quite likely) contributing ELC's to do it. For me, Lekki and Willander are members of the upcoming core barring a trade for a young, cost controlled genuine star. And Mercer ain't that.

my point isn't that willander for mercer is a slam dunk must do trade. i dunno what to think about mercer and i don't know it would work out that well. i think it's the type of trade the team needs to look at if they are serious about contending with this core though

there's this idea that 'contributing elcs' is some kind of must have for contenders and that's simply not true. no contender has had significant players on elcs except for byram and maybe dallas if you consider them a contender. you win with elite players in their prime and cheap depth

if you're banking on willander and lekkerimaki coming in and pushing this roster over the top you're sacrificing at least one and possibly more years of waiting and you're betting on a couple of prospects that aren't even sure bets to come in and make that kind of contribution

 

[Hodgy]

I would trade any prospect, younger player in an Eichel type trade. I would not in a Kadri type trade.

Well, of course we’d trade any of our prospects or young players for an Eichel level player. You’d need to give up Willander, Hoglander and a first, and perhaps more. But that’s pretty uncontested.

What’s more likely is that we never have a shot at an Eichel level player. And a Kadri level layer would be a huge addition. He had 3 playoff runs at 4.5 million which is great value, and the only reason he was available is because of a rather knee jerk response in Toronto to his playoff suspensions. You can maybe avoid giving up Willander for that type of player, but your going to need to give up all of a combination of Lekky, Hoglander and a first.

 

[LemonSauceD]

Maybe I should have just replied to your last post, but I don’t consider mercer a needle mover…

I always maintain anyone is tradeable but it has to be the right trade.

Yes I agree. Personally c I don’t consider Mercer to be a needle mover as well.

I would trade any prospect, younger player in an Eichel type trade. I would not in a Kadri type trade.

Of course you would give up any prospect in an Eichel type trade. As for a prime Kadri? Pretty much anyone short of Willander. We’re hoping he comes in sooner rather than later to fill that 4RD spot and mitigate the OEL penalty, like pretty much as soon as April.

There’s also a chance he simply isn’t ready. Then all of a sudden a Theodore (using him as an example) shakes loose and becomes available. Are you going to turn down the option of acquiring Theodore just to wait for Willander and his ELC? To be clear I’m not suggesting using Willander as a trade piece specifically for Theodore but it would open up other possibilities.

If there’s a prospect knocking down the door, let them through, otherwise, make the next play. Right now, I don’t see any of our prospects remotely close, but that’s just my opinion.

 

[StreetHawk]

If there’s a prospect knocking down the door, let them through, otherwise, make the next play. Right now, I don’t see any of our prospects remotely close, but that’s just my opinion.

Just have to be realistic. Between cap space and lack of prospects thanks to Benning, the Canucks are going to have to get very lucky with someone doing way more than expected. But, that doesn't seem likely from anyone pre-Rutherford.

 

[ameselare]

Would much rather have thrown assets at Pinto who is actually at center, is better defensively, and more physical. Than throw assets at Mercer who is not a great fit because we have a lot of wingers, and he is not a sure fire top six winger which is what we need. Not the type of player we should be wasting assets on. Also any trade with Willander+ for Mercer is so bad.

I really like Pinto. Same with Batherson. And Tkachuk. And Stutzle... Ottawa really needs to get their shit together. If they don't, teams should be calling every day trying to get these guys out of there.

Voronkov is the next Marchenko.

Chinakhov too. Would love any of them.

They're all great. CBJ has a lot of young talent and does nothing with it

 

[StreetHawk]

I really like Pinto. Same with Batherson. And Tkachuk. And Stutzle... Ottawa really needs to get their shit together. If they don't, teams should be calling every day trying to get these guys out of there.


They're all great. CBJ has a lot of young talent and does nothing with it

2 clubs you expect more from based on their rosters, but still, bad management. Ott did what a smaller non destination city should do and lock up their guys long term out of elc, even if it means rolling the dice on guys like sanderson after 1 season. But, they are already half way through Chaobt and 3 years into Tkachuck deals and are still not where they want to be. And blew draft capital to land Ullmark, Jensen in the end.

CBS same thing. Talent is there, but Johnny has done nothing. Gudbranson and Severson overpaid on the blueline.

 

[MS]

I wouldn’t trade Hog straight up for Sillinger personally. Kent Johnson tho

I'd add a 1st round pick to Hoglander to get Sillinger and wouldn't even think twice about it. Probably multiple 1sts. Sillinger is going to be a top-6 C with speed and size/grit for the next decade.

I feel like Hoglander is becoming the most underrated player in the league.

Guys 23, coming off a 24 goal season playing mainly 3rd/4th line minutes.

All while on a 1.1M contract.

Honestly one of the top players from his entire draft class!

He's also terrible defensively, was a healthy scratch in the playoffs, and had a fluke unsustainable shooting year. And has been pushed further down the depth chart for next season.

 

[arttk]

I'd add a 1st round pick to Hoglander to get Sillinger and wouldn't even think twice about it. Probably multiple 1sts. Sillinger is going to be a top-6 C with speed and size/grit for the next decade.



He's also terrible defensively, was a healthy scratch in the playoffs, and had a fluke unsustainable shooting year. And has been pushed further down the depth chart for next season.

i'm still mad at him for letting that Bouchard point shot through ..

 

[VanJack]

my point isn't that willander for mercer is a slam dunk must do trade. i dunno what to think about mercer and i don't know it would work out that well. i think it's the type of trade the team needs to look at if they are serious about contending with this core though

there's this idea that 'contributing elcs' is some kind of must have for contenders and that's simply not true. no contender has had significant players on elcs except for byram and maybe dallas if you consider them a contender. you win with elite players in their prime and cheap depth

if you're banking on willander and lekkerimaki coming in and pushing this roster over the top you're sacrificing at least one and possibly more years of waiting and you're betting on a couple of prospects that aren't even sure bets to come in and make that kind of contribution

While Lekkerimaki and Wilander might not be the kids to 'push the Canucks over the top' immediately as you say, they nevertheless occupy positions of 'need' for this organization.

After Lekkerimaki, the Canucks don't really have a scoring winger in their system who comes remotely close to him. He's clearly top-six material, who could score in the NHL today if he played mostly on the PP. The only thing he's lacking is experience.

As for Wilander, he's a rare right-shot d-men with offensive upside, who are almost impossible to acquire via trade. So he makes it, based strictly on his position.

And I know that while it's unlikely that first-rounders crack the NHL lineup immediately on a contending team, it can happen. And it wouldn't be a huge shock if it did in this case.

 

[Jerry the great]

my point isn't that willander for mercer is a slam dunk must do trade. i dunno what to think about mercer and i don't know it would work out that well. i think it's the type of trade the team needs to look at if they are serious about contending with this core though

you previously stated "i'm not a huge mercer fan but if he can be had for lekkerimaki/willander plus hoglander i think you pull the trigger"

This is just so shortsighted IMO.

Why would we even trade Hoglander for Mercer straight up, considering the latter is likely going to cost you 3x against the cap, and might not provide much (if an any at all) additional value ? the idea that we should be throwing in a RHS defender who has an enviable skill set and seems to be progressing well or a promising one shot goal scorer is insane. If Willander hits anywhere near his ceiling, you wouldn't dream of trading him for a smallish speedy winger who might be able to play in your top 6. If Lekkerimaki hits, he could dramatically impact the PP. Maybe if Mercer could play C (he has done nothing to suggest that is likely) you could make a case that Hoglander + is a reasonable price to pay....but at this point, it would be crazy to go down this road.

 

[LemonSauceD]

Gillis was trying to build a contender that contended every year so he didn't want to trade away all of his young pieces/draft picks.

Was he?

I mean he traded a 25 year old Bernier, Grabner, and a 2010 1st for an unremarkable speedy but undersized #4 defenseman in Ballard. He made the right bet but lost. And instead of cutting loose an L trade, he doubled down on his $4.2M mistake and kept him around for another 2 seasons.

Then he traded Hodgson for Kassian which was just a backwards ass trade. It’s like if we traded Hoglander for Cody Glass or something. Trading an established but young roster player while you’re gearing up for another deep playoff run for a project was quite literally the dumbest thing I had ever seen.

Gillis in reality hoarded picks and prospects and never used them to make the team better. In the end, they never amounted to anything, because statistically, they rarely do from where we were selecting at the time. On top of that, the picks he made were brutal but that’s beside the point.

I’m saying this and I liked Gillis for the most part.

 

[Nucker101]

I'd add a 1st round pick to Hoglander to get Sillinger and wouldn't even think twice about it. Probably multiple 1sts. Sillinger is going to be a top-6 C with speed and size/grit for the next decade.

Interesting, I likely underrate Sillinger then.

 

[Phrasing]

Was he?

I mean he traded a 25 year old Bernier, Grabner, and a 2010 1st for an unremarkable speedy but undersized #4 defenseman in Ballard. He made the right bet but lost. And instead of cutting loose an L trade, he doubled down on his $4.2M mistake and kept him around for another 2 seasons.

Then he traded Hodgson for Kassian which was just a backwards ass trade. It’s like if we traded Hoglander for Cody Glass or something. Trading an established but young roster player while you’re gearing up for another deep playoff run for a project was quite literally the dumbest thing I had ever seen.

Gillis in reality hoarded picks and prospects and never used them to make the team better. In the end, they never amounted to anything, because statistically, they rarely do from where we were selecting at the time. On top of that, the picks he made were brutal but that’s beside the point.

I’m saying this and I liked Gillis for the most part.

I wouldn’t trade Willander as players of his kind are hard to acquire except through the draft. But I’m all for using Lekk’s resurgence in value to help the team now.

 

[MS]

Interesting, I likely underrate Sillinger then.

He was only 20 years old last year, scored 30 ES points (virtually zero PP production) and pulled great defensive results for a player of his age/mid-leverage usage on that lousy team. He probably isn't going to be an 80-100 point guy or anything but I'd be surprised if he isn't a 50-70 point very good two-way C with speed and bite for a very long time.

He should never have been rushed to the NHL at 18 (and being rushed so early makes him seem older than he is) and he struggled in his first two years but he quietly came into his own as a good player last year.

There are like 5 or 6 Cs who are 2002-born and younger and scored 30+ points last year while taking 500+ faceoffs and he's one of them. I'd pay an absolute fortune for him if he became available and to me he's worth massively more than either Johnson or Hoglander who both project as low-leverage wingers long-term.

 

[timw33]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1814404693348831508

 

[wonton15]

Sprong on a Suter-esque bargain contract later into the summer is 100% an Allvin move

Could see Hog/Pod being moved if so

 

[ziploc]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1814404693348831508

Strong Phil Kessel vibes

 

[Vector]

Sprong on a Suter-esque bargain contract later into the summer is 100% an Allvin move

Could see Hog/Pod being moved if so

Yeah, he makes sense as a low cost top-6 option and you’re moving out one of those two in a bigger move to upgrade somewhere else.

 

[Nick Lang]

He was only 20 years old last year, scored 30 ES points (virtually zero PP production) and pulled great defensive results for a player of his age/mid-leverage usage on that lousy team. He probably isn't going to be an 80-100 point guy or anything but I'd be surprised if he isn't a 50-70 point very good two-way C with speed and bite for a very long time.

He should never have been rushed to the NHL at 18 (and being rushed so early makes him seem older than he is) and he struggled in his first two years but he quietly came into his own as a good player last year.

There are like 5 or 6 Cs who are 2002-born and younger and scored 30+ points last year while taking 500+ faceoffs and he's one of them. I'd pay an absolute fortune for him if he became available and to me he's worth massively more than either Johnson or Hoglander who both project as low-leverage wingers long-term.

But would you trade OEL and Garland for him? Wasn't he drafted the same year we traded the 9th overall to Arizona?

Yeah, he makes sense as a low cost top-6 option and you’re moving out one of those two in a bigger move to upgrade somewhere else.

Use those guys to move Poolman's contract and sign Sprong to replace in the line-up.