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[WetcoastOrca]

40m for drai, mcdavid and bouchard is a steal if bouchard can replicate his play from the playoffs

edmonton's problem is never going to be paying those 3 too much it's going to be putting the right depth around them. if mcdavid extends they'll have the best top 6 in the league all the way out to 2028 (when hyman expires) basically by default. all they really need to do to stay a legit contender is find a replacement for ekholm and maybe add another top 4 defender. it's not easy but it's also not impossible

I’m sceptical. No team has ever won with even close to such a high percentage of the cap tied up in 4 players. That’s almost $50 million tied up in McDavid, Drai, Bouchard and Nurse which based on this years cap is almost 57% of the cap. Eckholm is 34 and Hyman is 32. The next two years are really their opportunity to win imo.
After that it’s going to be almost impossible with no prospect pipeline to speak of.

 

[Tables of Stats]

The thing is that the Oilers forward depth is actually pretty good, people need to go take a look instead of just hoping, and our super hot start last season was a complete surprise and sure we had a great season but our team doesn't really look like a serious SC contender unless everything goes extremely right and a lot can go wrong here, especially on the back end.

I looked, and then I went on to make a points prediction for the Oilers the same as I've done for our team for the past several years. The Oilers are clearly the much better team in terms of scoring goals and their top 9 forwards are all predicted to have higher PPG seasons than our players at the same position, this gets worse if we assume Kane will come back at some point and be the same player he has been. That said, the Oilers 4th line is tragic and if anybody gets hurt they have very slim pickings in terms of call-ups. Our forward group is also far grittier throwing an expected 400 hits more than their Oilers counterparts.

Most damning is that the Oilers expected roster has 9 players 30 or older with 3 who will be 35 or older by the start of the playoffs. My model overrates older players as it doesn't factor in the expected decline that starts as players enter their 30s. If we factor this in it's clear that the Oilers are at a far higher risk of seeing players regress and underperform than the Canucks are. If these players do fall off the proverbial cliff this season, we also know that the Oilers have no replacements waiting in the wings to save their season.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1GUv5Wo01jvZ14_03udIfErlGSzhXJS7oGvzJlyLlSq4/edit?usp=sharing

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1lMC__ANRefwTLtOM_GAfz5yORR4CGA42r5ubznVCzt8/edit?gid=0#gid=0

 

[wetcoast]

I looked, and then I went on to make a points prediction for the Oilers the same as I've done for our team for the past several years. The Oilers are clearly the much better team in terms of scoring goals and their top 9 forwards are all predicted to have higher PPG seasons than our players at the same position, this gets worse if we assume Kane will come back at some point and be the same player he has been. That said, the Oilers 4th line is tragic and if anybody gets hurt they have very slim pickings in terms of call-ups. Our forward group is also far grittier throwing an expected 400 hits more than their Oilers counterparts.

Most damning is that the Oilers expected roster has 9 players 30 or older with 3 who will be 35 or older by the start of the playoffs. My model overrates older players as it doesn't factor in the expected decline that starts as players enter their 30s. If we factor this in it's clear that the Oilers are at a far higher risk of seeing players regress and underperform than the Canucks are. If these players do fall off the proverbial cliff this season, we also know that the Oilers have no replacements waiting in the wings to save their season.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1GUv5Wo01jvZ14_03udIfErlGSzhXJS7oGvzJlyLlSq4/edit?usp=sharing

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1lMC__ANRefwTLtOM_GAfz5yORR4CGA42r5ubznVCzt8/edit?gid=0#gid=0

Matt Savoie is getting overlooked here IMO.

 

[SeawaterOnIce]

Matt Savoie is getting overlooked here IMO.

Still don't get why Buffalo did that deal. It reeks of a Benning sort of trade paying a premium for a bottom 6 center.

 

[wetcoast]

Still don't get why Buffalo did that deal. It reeks of a Benning sort of trade paying a premium for a bottom 6 center.

Exactly but they did trade from a position of strength but it looks like a Benning for now trade at great expense towards the future.

 

[Tables of Stats]

Matt Savoie is getting overlooked here IMO.

He doesn't have any NHL time so it's hard for me to model him without using NHLe which I'm trying to move away from.

 

[God]

Still don't get why Buffalo did that deal. It reeks of a Benning sort of trade paying a premium for a bottom 6 center.

I completely understand why Buffalo made that deal. They have a glut of talented forwards and Savoie's a talented player but lacks size - and he's been overtaken by Kulich (taken in the same draft) and Benson (similarly talented but also small). McLeod brings an element of speed in the bottom 6 that'll make them harder to play against. Plus I don't think McLeod's offensive potential has been fully realized yet.

 

[credulous]

I’m sceptical. No team has ever won with even close to such a high percentage of the cap tied up in 4 players. That’s almost $50 million tied up in McDavid, Drai, Bouchard and Nurse which based on this years cap is almost 57% of the cap. Eckholm is 34 and Hyman is 32. The next two years are really their opportunity to win imo.
After that it’s going to be almost impossible with no prospect pipeline to speak of.

the pens paid 25.5m to crosby, malkin and letang when the salary cap was only 70/73m when they won in 2016 and 2017. kessel was (probably, i can't be bothered to verify) was their 4th highest paid player bringing them to 33.5m and ~46-47% of the cap

 

[Josepho]

No small winger prospect is getting traded for a bonafide top 6 player under team control.

McLeod isn't a sexy player but he's fast as hell (something they clearly prioritized this offseason) and can kill penalties.

 

[WetcoastOrca]

the pens paid 25.5m to crosby, malkin and letang when the salary cap was only 70/73m when they won in 2016 and 2017. kessel was (probably, i can't be bothered to verify) was their 4th highest paid player bringing them to 33.5m and ~46-47% of the cap

The Oilers though would be well over 50% of the cap with their big 4 of McDrai, Bouchard and Nurse. That’s $50 million or so. And Nurse is not nearly as impactful in a positive way as Kessel was so that’s also an issue.

 

[sandwichbird2023]

The points are well made by previous posters.......Once you get past Hughes and Hronek, the rest of the group is 30 or older. It's still very much a 'transitional blueline' for the Canucks.

Obviously they have high hopes for Wilander; and there's a possibility some of their young d-men like D-Petey, McWard, Kudryavtsev, or Mynio could jump into an NHL job after some development time in Abbotsford.

But the hard reality is, the Canucks will still be out scouring the market for d-men, either via trade or free agency for at least the rest of this season, and probably into the next as well.

It's hardly ideal, but price you pay for the almost complete inability of the last regime to find a single credible d-man in the draft--other than Hughes.

Canucks' blueline certainly looks shallow after the Hughes-Hronek pairing, but if you look at the rest of the contenders in the west, we don't stack up too badly against them.

For example, here are the defensive pairing as of now, based on dailyfaceoff.com.

Dallas: Harley-Heiskanen; Lindell-Lyubushkin; Smith-Dumba
Colorado: Toews-Makar; Girard-Manson; Brannstrom-Kylington
Edmonton: Ekholm-Bouchard; Nurse-Emberson; Kuluk-Stecher
Winnipeg: Morrissey-Demelo; Samberg-Pionk; Miller-Stanley
Vegas: Hanifin-Pietrangelo; McNabb-Theodore; Hague-Whitecloud

Vancouver's blueline is very similar to Dallas, Colorado, Edmonton and Winnipeg. They all have an amazing top pairing that feature a top 10 D (Hughes, Heiskanen, Makar, Bouchard and Morrisey). Their 2nd pairing all has one top 4 D (Soucy, Lindell, Girard, Nurse and Pionk) and their partner is a fringe #4 at best. They all have fairly weak or unproven 3rd pairing that you hope will not get lit up.

Vegas' defense is much more balance. They don't have a superstar top 10 D on their top pair, but they arguably has 3 legit top pairing players in Hanifin, Pie and Theodore. I also think they have the best 3rd pairing out of this group as well.

Overall, I don't think Vancouver has a particularly weak blueline comparing to the rest of the contenders in the West. They will all be looking for upgrade(s) throughout the season. The cost is going to be high, getting things done early (like with Zadorov last season) might be a good idea.

 

[credulous]

The Oilers though would be well over 50% of the cap with their big 4 of McDrai, Bouchard and Nurse. That’s $50 million or so. And Nurse is not nearly as impactful in a positive way as Kessel was so that’s also an issue.

i doubt they'll be over 50m. even if mcdavid maxes out bouchard would have to get 10m to hit that. i think both are unlikely and they'll both come in 1.5-2.5m lower. with the cap growth we've seen they'll be right around where pittsburgh were in terms of total cap commitment to top 4 players

i'm not saying edmonton are in a great cap situation or anything but i think the doomerism over paying the 2 best players in the world a couple million more than elias pettersson, william nylander and artemi panarin is ridiculous

 

[WetcoastOrca]

i doubt they'll be over 50m. even if mcdavid maxes out bouchard would have to get 10m to hit that. i think both are unlikely and they'll both come in 1.5-2.5m lower. with the cap growth we've seen they'll be right around where pittsburgh were in terms of total cap commitment to top 4 players

i'm not saying edmonton are in a great cap situation or anything but i think the doomerism over paying the 2 best players in the world a couple million more than elias pettersson, william nylander and artemi panarin is ridiculous

Sure. But I’m not saying it’s a bad thing to sign McDrai to those contracts. I’m saying you can’t win with 4 players taking up well over 50% of the cap, especially when one of them is Nurse. It’s never happened in history. I know that doesn’t mean it couldn’t but I just don’t think the Pens situation is really comparable as they had four really impactful players at a lower percentage of the cap. If you swap out Kessel for Nurse and increase the overall cap hit of their four to over 50% I don’t think Pitts wins either cup.
My prediction is McDavid at $16 million and Bouchard at $10 million for a total cap hit of almost $50 million. Even with a $90 million cap that’s still over 55% and even if you knock Bouchard down by $1 million it’s well over 53%.
We will see after two years as I think that’s really their window now.

 

[Jerry the great]

I completely understand why Buffalo made that deal. They have a glut of talented forwards and Savoie's a talented player but lacks size - and he's been overtaken by Kulich (taken in the same draft) and Benson (similarly talented but also small). McLeod brings an element of speed in the bottom 6 that'll make them harder to play against. Plus I don't think McLeod's offensive potential has been fully realized yet.

whether he gets there or not, McLeod has the tools to be a top matchup defensive C in the game who has the speed and might have the hands to be a really good counterpuncher. He was on his way to being too expensive for EDM (he's a 20 goal season away from being a $4-5MM player) so they moved him for a player who might be an Oiler down the road or a hot commodity at the TDL in 25. I actually thought this trade made sense for both teams.

 

[Nick Lang]

I looked, and then I went on to make a points prediction for the Oilers the same as I've done for our team for the past several years. The Oilers are clearly the much better team in terms of scoring goals and their top 9 forwards are all predicted to have higher PPG seasons than our players at the same position, this gets worse if we assume Kane will come back at some point and be the same player he has been. That said, the Oilers 4th line is tragic and if anybody gets hurt they have very slim pickings in terms of call-ups. Our forward group is also far grittier throwing an expected 400 hits more than their Oilers counterparts.

Most damning is that the Oilers expected roster has 9 players 30 or older with 3 who will be 35 or older by the start of the playoffs. My model overrates older players as it doesn't factor in the expected decline that starts as players enter their 30s. If we factor this in it's clear that the Oilers are at a far higher risk of seeing players regress and underperform than the Canucks are. If these players do fall off the proverbial cliff this season, we also know that the Oilers have no replacements waiting in the wings to save their season.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1GUv5Wo01jvZ14_03udIfErlGSzhXJS7oGvzJlyLlSq4/edit?usp=sharing

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1lMC__ANRefwTLtOM_GAfz5yORR4CGA42r5ubznVCzt8/edit?gid=0#gid=0

Having youth is a real positive in sports but I also find people tend to overlook older players as well. Sure they can experience decline but they are proven commodities too. Hyman is playing great still, Skinner should have success and be highly motivated. RNH is still showing strong too. Kane is Kane if his injury heals. Arvidsson has injury history but he looks to be ready to go. Ekholm should be healed up. The rest are supporting players, but with their cap structure injuries could be problematic.

Reading though the posts here it seems a lot of people here are "hoping" age catches up with the Oilers but I wouldn't count on it. Especially when you have a couple players playing half of the minutes. Being a Cup favorite has a way of keeping these old players playing young and at the top of their games.

Having said that. I hope the Oilers crash and burn and start ordering walking sticks by bulk.

 

[credulous]

Sure. But I’m not saying it’s a bad thing to sign McDrai to those contracts. I’m saying you can’t win with 4 players taking up well over 50% of the cap, especially when one of them is Nurse. It’s never happened in history. I know that doesn’t mean it couldn’t but I just don’t think the Pens situation is really comparable as they had four really impactful players at a lower percentage of the cap. If you swap out Kessel for Nurse and increase the overall cap hit of their four to over 50% I don’t think Pitts wins either cup.
My prediction is McDavid at $16 million and Bouchard at $10 million for a total cap hit of almost $50 million. Even with a $90 million cap that’s still over 55% and even if you knock Bouchard down by $1 million it’s well over 53%.
We will see after two years as I think that’s really their window now.

even if nurse sucks the edmonton top 4 is better than the pittsburgh top 4 were in relative terms imo. while crosby was almost certainly the best player in the world at the time there were a handful of guys who could lay claim to #2 over malkin and letang wasn't anywhere near the best defenseman. pittsburghs depth in those years was also awful. other than kessel and the big 2 their best forward was like patric hornqvist or nick bonino and their second best defender was ian cole or brian dumoulin (or justin schultz in 2017)

pittsburgh in 2016/2017 is absolutely an example of a top heavy roster winning it all

 

[Tables of Stats]

Having youth is a real positive in sports but I also find people tend to overlook older players as well. Sure they can experience decline but they are proven commodities too. Hyman is playing great still, Skinner should have success and be highly motivated. RNH is still showing strong too. Kane is Kane if his injury heals. Arvidsson has injury history but he looks to be ready to go. Ekholm should be healed up. The rest are supporting players, but with their cap structure injuries could be problematic.

Reading though the posts here it seems a lot of people here are "hoping" age catches up with the Oilers but I wouldn't count on it. Especially when you have a couple players playing half of the minutes. Being a Cup favorite has a way of keeping these old players playing young and at the top of their games.

Having said that. I hope the Oilers crash and burn and start ordering walking sticks by bulk.

I'm not hoping for anything. I'm pointing out that several players have already had their scoring over-predicted by my model and that it wouldn't be shocking to see more of the Oilers' forwards decline due to age/role this season. They could all be entirely ageless, but that would be surprising.

 

[Baby Pettersson]

Demko back on the ice skating. Very good news.

 

[VanillaCoke]

Great for hockey, the city of Edmonton and the fans to know they have Draisaitl and likely mcdavid for the foreseeable future.

It seems like the window is this season however and I don't see it happening.
Once Bouchard is at ten million too it seems even less likely.

 

[wonton15]

Demko skating!, still pursuing Lankinen (our offer isn’t good enough right now), Silovs on his way to Vancouver and will get checked out by our doctors for his inflammed knee

I hope Demko doesn’t rush it. The pursuit of Lankinen makes me think management has the same thoughts which is good.

 

[WetcoastOrca]

even if nurse sucks the edmonton top 4 is better than the pittsburgh top 4 were in relative terms imo. while crosby was almost certainly the best player in the world at the time there were a handful of guys who could lay claim to #2 over malkin and letang wasn't anywhere near the best defenseman. pittsburghs depth in those years was also awful. other than kessel and the big 2 their best forward was like patric hornqvist or nick bonino and their second best defender was ian cole or brian dumoulin (or justin schultz in 2017)

pittsburgh in 2016/2017 is absolutely an example of a top heavy roster winning it all

You missed Jake Guentzel. 21 points in 25 playoff games on a cheap entry level contract.
In any event, I disagree for the reasons I stated in my earlier post. The impact of having Nurse in the big 4 instead of Kessel just can’t be overstated and Letang was a better all round D than Bouchard. Then there’s a huge edge in Pittsburgh’s goaltending compared to Skinner. Fleury had a .924 and Murray a .937 save percentage in the playoffs. As for supporting cast, Eckholm is 34 and Hyman 32. Two years from now it’s questionable how impactful they will be.
Just to add, Crosby won his last cup when he was 29 and Malkin 30. McDavid and Draisaitl will be 28 and 29 this season. This aligns perfectly with my view that the next two years are really the cup window for Edmonton.
I actually think they have a great chance at a Cup. But it’s the next two years that it needs to happen.

 

[bossram]

Matt Savoie is getting overlooked here IMO.

Still don't get why Buffalo did that deal. It reeks of a Benning sort of trade paying a premium for a bottom 6 center.

Exactly but they did trade from a position of strength but it looks like a Benning for now trade at great expense towards the future.

He's not overlooked. This is just a massive overrating of a non-elite prospect. I've had some pretty extensive thoughts on the Savoie-Mcleod trade before, but realistically if Savoie hits, he's a small-ish middle-six winger. Those are assets that don't hold much value. And he isn't even that yet.

And that's not even taking into account BUF's glut of smallish offensive forwards, of which I would rate Savoie behind all of Benson, Quinn, Peterka, Kulich, and Ostlund.

No small winger prospect is getting traded for a bonafide top 6 player under team control.

McLeod isn't a sexy player but he's fast as hell (something they clearly prioritized this offseason) and can kill penalties.

Exactly. Mcleod is already a two-way 3C with maybe potential for more. That alone has equal or better value than Savoie's realistic NHL upside.

 

[bossram]

I’m sceptical. No team has ever won with even close to such a high percentage of the cap tied up in 4 players. That’s almost $50 million tied up in McDavid, Drai, Bouchard and Nurse which based on this years cap is almost 57% of the cap. Eckholm is 34 and Hyman is 32. The next two years are really their opportunity to win imo.
After that it’s going to be almost impossible with no prospect pipeline to speak of.

It's a different cap world. Significant cap increases change how things work a lot.

Superstar contracts are going to look like this going forward. If the cap does rise to the extent expected, then locking in star players will be huge surplus value to teams, as you avoid year-over-year salary inflation.

And star players are what drive winning teams. You need those to be a contender. You can fill in the bit pieces with cheap guys, if the GM is smart.

 

[supercanuck]

The goal of contending Pacific Division (Western Conference) teams whenever they play against the Oilers should be to hit Ekholm hard every chance they get. Forget about winning the regular season game, just tenderize him for the playoffs.

 

[TruGr1t]

That Draisaitl contract is bonkers, though guess they had to do it. But guy is going to be making $14M AAV into his late 30s.

I dunno how long their window will be, but man they’re in a world of hurt in a few years.