Prospect Info: Grand Rapids Griffins Discussion

[Rzombo4 prez]

I have watched him play. He was in the NHL a month ago.


I'm not relying on analytics. I'm telling you that when I have watched him with my eyeballs he has been BAD. I am supplementing that with objective data to support what I am saying. If you would like to ignore the "analytics" and just take my word for it, feel free: He has been very bad in the NHL because I said so, trust me bro.


That's one opinion. Alternatively, the Red Wings had years of success by letting players develop at lower levels.


That's one opinion. Alternatively, you could develop players in lower leagues so that when they play in the NHL, they are ready for the NHL.


I don't expect that they will have improved within the last month, since he was last bad in the NHL. Since that time, his numbers are not impressive in the AHL and I see him show up negatively in the highlights, so I don't suspect he got radically better in that short time. In the grand scheme, I think he can improve his game by playing in the AHL. Learning the pace of the game against pros on a small ice and being coached up on his mistakes will have him improve, without being given a spot he doesn't deserve and hurting the Red Wings chances to win games today

I think we have very different tolerances for what "bad" and "developmentally appropriate are." I am not expecting every Wings defensive prospect to hit the NHL looking like Seider (i.e. a top 15 NHL defensemen) and I have capacity for mistakes from young players. I also know that the rink has three zones and that the net impact of a player in all three is what ultimately counts. Defense is a very difficult position, especially mentally. A player isn't, however, going to get the benefits of 100 GP of NHL experience, without playing 100 NHL games. The AHL isn't going to replicate that no matter what Ken Holland says. Moreover, if you are going to call out Ed for being "bad" I hope you have the intellectual honesty to label Petry, Holl, Chairot, Matta and Ghost as "bad" as well.

To each his own.

 

[Rzombo4 prez]

Just a reminder.... the NHL is not a development league. There is a high bar to entry. If Ed has not reached that bar, it doesn't make sense to throw him in so that he can "learn." You learn once you are already 90% of an NHL player and require mostly just finishing touches. If you are at 75%, you are not ready and you need more time in the AHL to get to 90%. And, this will probably come as a shock to some... talent has only a small impact on that %.

Now, if one wants to argue that Ed has reached that bar, that he is 90% of an NHL player, and that he's ready for just those finishing touches, be my guest. I think he's in a gray area, and it can be argued either way. I agree with some others here that he made too many critical errors in his NHL time and that he indeed could benefit from more AHL time. Has the past month benefited him to the point that he should be brought back up? That, I don't claim to know.

Some recently-drafted defensemen and AHL games played: I appreciate the pandemic clearly impacted some of this and that the Euro kids don't always provide for apples-to-apples comparisons.

Q. Hughes - 0
L. Hughes -0
Dobson -0
Dahlin - 0
Heiskanen -0
Makar -0
Boqvist- 15
Bouchard -54
K. Miller -0
Ty smith - 81 and counting
Byram -2
Seider - 49 (+41 SHL)
Broberg - 65 (+89 SHL)
York -62
Harley -131
Sanderson -0
Drysdale -14
Guhle- 3
Schneider -26
Power -0
Clarke -37 and counting
Soderstrom -149 and counting

 

[DoMakc]

Just a reminder.... the NHL is not a development league. There is a high bar to entry. If Ed has not reached that bar, it doesn't make sense to throw him in so that he can "learn." You learn once you are already 90% of an NHL player and require mostly just finishing touches. If you are at 75%, you are not ready and you need more time in the AHL to get to 90%. And, this will probably come as a shock to some... talent has only a small impact on that %.

Now, if one wants to argue that Ed has reached that bar, that he is 90% of an NHL player, and that he's ready for just those finishing touches, be my guest. I think he's in a gray area, and it can be argued either way. I agree with some others here that he made too many critical errors in his NHL time and that he indeed could benefit from more AHL time. Has the past month benefited him to the point that he should be brought back up? That, I don't claim to know.

Sorry but NHL not being development league is a massive oversimplification - players don't stop developing in the NHL, you always need time to adjust, i remember old Dobber article where he states that players actually need about three-to-four seasons to reach their peak.
Like do you send down Raymond last season because of his struggles? He was by no means at 0.9 compared to his self as during this season. You actually need challenge to develop, if everything comes easy, you not learning from it, it might result in bad habits.

I think there are two aspects of "the bar":

- Players is good enough to learn from and not be hurt by this experience. Like not being completely overmatched. I think we agree that is not the case with Edvinsson.
- In case of a team competing for something, player should be better than the worst player at his position. It also can be argued that Edvinsson is better than at least two current defensemen.

I think in the most cases coaches prefer to minimize the probability of getting fired and try to minimize randomness - vets are more predictable, if not better. Or just don't like to deal with any kind of development as they need to put additional effort (Babcock comes to mind). In case of Edvinsson, i think Yzerman has some pressure to make the playoffs so he thinks depth is important.

 

[Gniwder]

Some recently-drafted defensemen and AHL games played: I appreciate the pandemic clearly impacted some of this and that the Euro kids don't always provide for apples-to-apples comparisons.

Q. Hughes - 0
L. Hughes -0
Dobson -0
Dahlin - 0
Heiskanen -0
Makar -0
Boqvist- 15
Bouchard -54
K. Miller -0
Ty smith - 81 and counting
Byram -2
Seider - 49 (+41 SHL)
Broberg - 65 (+89 SHL)
York -62
Harley -131
Sanderson -0
Drysdale -14
Guhle- 3
Schneider -26
Power -0
Clarke -37 and counting
Soderstrom -149 and counting

Some players go through college or SHL and skip the AHL. Makar is generational talent and he spent 2 seasons in college. Sanderson did as well. I really don't think Ed spending his D+3 season in the AHL is going to hurt his development in any significant way. Plus his numbers are improving compared to last season.

The team is on the path to a WC spot right now, Stevie is taking the safe approach by going with the players that are already on the roster rather than taking chances with a rookie. As a fan that WANTS TO SEE Ed play for the Wings, I can appreciate the logic. It is what it is.

If Ed isn't on the roster next season, then I'll flip sides, lol. Burger will be (if he's not traded) because he has to clear waivers. 100% sure he will be claimed by a cellar team if he goes on waivers.

 

[norrisnick]

Just a reminder.... the NHL is not a development league. There is a high bar to entry. If Ed has not reached that bar, it doesn't make sense to throw him in so that he can "learn." You learn once you are already 90% of an NHL player and require mostly just finishing touches. If you are at 75%, you are not ready and you need more time in the AHL to get to 90%. And, this will probably come as a shock to some... talent has only a small impact on that %.

Now, if one wants to argue that Ed has reached that bar, that he is 90% of an NHL player, and that he's ready for just those finishing touches, be my guest. I think he's in a gray area, and it can be argued either way. I agree with some others here that he made too many critical errors in his NHL time and that he indeed could benefit from more AHL time. Has the past month benefited him to the point that he should be brought back up? That, I don't claim to know.

It's not a valid bar of entry if X games played eliminates the need to clear said bar.

 

[dtown77]

I know this is an apples to oranges comparison. But when i coached high school wrestling. Some of the younger guys who were good were better off getting as many JV matches as possible. They just needed the mat experience. Other guys are better off just being thrown to the wolves on varsity. I know nothing about coaching hockey.. but what I would assume is. Some play to the level of their competition. Other need to baby step it in. While others learn better getting a good ass kicking. So I would assume it should be more of a case by case basis then a system. Im hoping they just think Ed needs the ice time and this will benefit him. I'm thinking with Berg. They like his offensive upside but want other parts of his game to develop

 

[norrisnick]

I know this is an apples to oranges comparison. But when i coached high school wrestling. Some of the younger guys who were good were better off getting as many JV matches as possible. They just needed the mat experience. Other guys are better off just being thrown to the wolves on varsity. I know nothing about coaching hockey.. but what I would assume is. Some play to the level of their competition. Other need to baby step it in. While others learn better getting a good ass kicking. So I would assume it should be more of a case by case basis then a system. Im hoping they just think Ed needs the ice time and this will benefit him. I'm thinking with Berg. They like his offensive upside but want other parts of his game to develop

It's not like there isn't ice time being used on trash on the Wings right now. There is plenty of ice time. Coach is just chickenshit.

 

[Henkka]

Ed and Burger are AHL Allstars. That shouldn't happen. If you have prospects in the A at all-star levels you should find a spot for them on the big boy roster.

At next season they will.

 

[Pavels Dog]

And you are watching AHL hockey? I would love to hear from a poster who routinely watches AHL hockey and thinks he shouldn't be in the NHL. In the dozen or so AHL games I have watched he has routinely been the team's most effective player.

Yes I'm watching. And he's got games where he clearly looks NHL ready, and games where he clearly doesn't. Which in totality tells me he's still got to work on being at that level consistently.

Sadly, really good players don't spend much time in the AHL. If you go back and look at the best defensemen drafted in the last five or six years, very few of them spent significant time in the AHL.

At some point we need to get away from old ideas of what "really good players" do and don't, because it's all situational and other teams throwing players into the fire to sink or swim doesn't mean that's GOOD development.
There's also plenty of really good players that have spent a long time in SHL, KHL or NCAA before making the NHL. Shouldn't the same logic apply to them? Can Adam Fox really become a good NHLer given how long he spent in the NCAA?

 

[Henkka]

Imo, it's ideal for a winning team to carry only one D

Some recently-drafted defensemen and AHL games played: I appreciate the pandemic clearly impacted some of this and that the Euro kids don't always provide for apples-to-apples comparisons.

Q. Hughes - 0
L. Hughes -0
Dobson -0
Dahlin - 0
Heiskanen -0
Makar -0
Boqvist- 15
Bouchard -54
K. Miller -0
Ty smith - 81 and counting
Byram -2
Seider - 49 (+41 SHL)
Broberg - 65 (+89 SHL)
York -62
Harley -131
Sanderson -0
Drysdale -14
Guhle- 3
Schneider -26
Power -0
Clarke -37 and counting
Soderstrom -149 and counting

You should count NCAA games there, if you are counting games at Euro leagues. Heiskanen also did spend a season in Finland etc.

 

[Rzombo4 prez]

Some players go through college or SHL and skip the AHL. Makar is generational talent and he spent 2 seasons in college. Sanderson did as well. I really don't think Ed spending his D+3 season in the AHL is going to hurt his development in any significant way. Plus his numbers are improving compared to last season.

The team is on the path to a WC spot right now, Stevie is taking the safe approach by going with the players that are already on the roster rather than taking chances with a rookie. As a fan that WANTS TO SEE Ed play for the Wings, I can appreciate the logic. It is what it is.

If Ed isn't on the roster next season, then I'll flip sides, lol. Burger will be (if he's not traded) because he has to clear waivers. 100% sure he will be claimed by a cellar team if he goes on waivers.

I most certainly did not mean to suggest that we should expect good defensive prospects to crack the big club's roster in their D+1 or D+2 seasons. Rather, I was trying to see whether the AHL was crucial or even normal for defensive prospects drafted relatively early in the first round and whether other teams allow players to develop in the NHL. My gut reaction is that it is reasonable to expect some material NHL play in a D+3 season.

Imo, it's ideal for a winning team to carry only one D


You should count NCAA games there, if you are counting games at Euro leagues. Heiskanen also did spend a season in Finland etc.

Again, not a commentary on when they actually hit the NHL, just whether it is normal to spend time in the AHL for similarly-drafted players.

 

[Rzombo4 prez]

Yes I'm watching. And he's got games where he clearly looks NHL ready, and games where he clearly doesn't. Which in totality tells me he's still got to work on being at that level consistently.


At some point we need to get away from old ideas of what "really good players" do and don't, because it's all situational and other teams throwing players into the fire to sink or swim doesn't mean that's GOOD development.
There's also plenty of really good players that have spent a long time in SHL, KHL or NCAA before making the NHL. Shouldn't the same logic apply to them? Can Adam Fox really become a good NHLer given how long he spent in the NCAA?

The old ideas here are the overbaking Ken Holland BS that people bought hook line and sinker. Hell, you are still appealing to this authority in 2024. The only players that need to be overbaked are the ones that aren't very good to begin with. It was never a development model or strategy, it was a function of prospects sucking. Furthermore, how many NHL defensemen has this organization actually developed in the last decade? I am not sure why you would be holding up our development model as something to be proud of. The best young players in our organization have been pushed along to the big club relatively quickly (Larkin, Seider, Raymond). It is hard to argue that extensive AHL time is a prerequisite for this organization. I also don't know why you are holding up Adam Fox as an example given that he intentionally played the long game to get to UFA status.

All I know is that our defense is pretty rancid. 60% of our game day threads are people bitching about the defense. If Ed can't crack this roster at this point on merit, perhaps we should be concerned about what we have with him or admit that the organization deserves some blame for putting him in this situation. You can't, however, have it both ways.

For the record he is not "worse" today for spending this season in the AHL. He has clearly improved to some degree. We are, however, not making the highest and best use of development time in my judgment and approaching a point for the organization where we need to think about defining or sketching out a competitive window.

 

[cvaicunas]

Edvinsson just turned 21 yesterday.

When Seider turned 21 he had completed:
71 NHL games, 5+40 = 45 points, 0.63 ppg, -5, 23:07min.

Edvinsson under 21 so far:
11 NHL games, 2+1 = 3 points, 0.27 ppg, -7, 16:38min.

That -7 at 11 games is pretty alarming.

The team was playing like shit when he was up though.. That said I think that is what he needs to work on the most. He gets himself out of position too often at the NHL level.

 

[newfy]

All I know is that our defense is pretty rancid. 60% of our game day threads are people bitching about the defense. If Ed can't crack this roster at this point on merit, perhaps we should be concerned about what we have with him or admit that the organization deserves some blame for putting him in this situation. You can't, however, have it both ways.

I think theres a tonne of overthinking going on in this thread. Edvinsson wasnt suppoed to be ready to play until late November or possibly even December going into this off season. Yzerman loaded up on D with the idea that Edvinsson wouldnt be ready. In todays NHL its hard to just dump a contract mid season and the wings are having their best season in a long ass time so Yzerman isnt "desperate" to get him up or make a move that will hurt the team long term to get him up now

 

[19 for president]

I think if we had a more competent overall defense on the Wings there would be a lot less people clamoring for Ed to be up.

Ed has skills that match what this defense often has failed at this season which is someone that has the ability to make a strong outlet pass and also skate the puck. I think people also see him about roughly equal to guys like Maata, Holl, Chia, and Petry defensively, while adding that element. That group has looked better lately but have not been great for a majority of the season.

There is also the issue of upside. Ed has a great potential for growth than any of the 4 listed who are largely finished or deteriorating products.

Right now I think Ed is in that sweet spot that both NHL and AHL games could benefit him in different ways. You can't get used to an NHL pace playing in the AHL but you can adjust well to physicality of the NA game and work on being a play driver.

I don't think he is to the overripening stage that guys like Gus and Tatar were in the old days. The AHL still has some value to him, but we also can't argue that this team has near the talent that the old teams had either, so by right if we are rebuilding you should be embracing youth to some degree over vets.

The other issue with keeping Ed down is that it helps to build a log jam of young D. You really never want more than one rookie dman at a time because they do need to be sheltered somewhat. If he is a rookie this year then that opens up maybe an Aljo, Tuo, Wallinder to see some legit time next season. The Wings have a ton of D prospects with legit potential that need to develop and a log jam in GR if you want them getting playing time and also still carry a vet or two. Aljo, Tuo, Wallinder, Viro, Buium (unless he goes Senior and we potentially lose him for nothing) will now be vying for spots in the AHL next season and we will likely need to demote one or two to the ECHL just because there won't be room. Then there is Johanssen and ASP banging at the GR door. I think both will be in the SEL next season but after you are looking at still more of a log jam because we probably only have one more guy up the next year. Now Stevie could clear this up with trades or a guy or two could really fall off the development bandwagon but we could easily see another XO, Sproul, Marchenko, Backstrom situation where we lost a lot of value because of development issues and waiting too long to see what they could do at an NHL level.

With all that said. I honestly think if Stevie knew that Ed was going to be ready by camp he would not have gotten Petry or Holl and Ed is probably on the team. He got back earlier than expected and didn't take a long time to get back to form (not guaranteed: see Marco Kasper). By that point Stevie had already made the deals he did.

It's not going to ruin Ed to hold out 1 extra year. I'd rather be watching him develop than our bottom pairs, but it is also not like we are legit competing for a cup this year and his being down is preventing that. I also have lower expectations for him than most long term, and feel he is more likely a JayBo circa is Panther days than the 2nd coming of Hedman. I hope for the later, but I feel like the first is more likely. Even if the 2nd happens it will probably take 4-5 years for him to get there like most big guys. So I am not expecting a Seider level impact anytime soon. (I will happily eat crow if I am wrong).

 

[SantosHalper]

I also have lower expectations for him than most long term, and feel he is more likely a JayBo circa is Panther days

Even that would be a massive W, Pronger has already said that Seider is the next him and ASP has potential to reach Karlsson-level. Wings d-corps would be off the hook, best in the NHL by far.

Offence wins hockey games, defense wins championships. Yzerplan in nut shell.

 

[Voodoo Glow Skulls]

So how the Griffins been doing?

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

So how the Griffins been doing?

Realgud.

 

[Henkka]

First time for over a month I did look on AHL Standings.

Griffins have raised on the 2nd position at Central Division. Man, I remember they were almost dead last at some point.

Funny, how last season Toledo was carbon copy of this. Does Watson teams always have this kind of strugglin season starts, and then huge upswing? Seems to be, that his systems will take time to implement, but after they get it going, the results are great. Winning.

Central also seems to be an easy division though. Lost of team under .500.

What did catch on my eye, Griffins seems to be a low-scoring team. Their GAA is very low, 5th lowest at AHL.

Winning team through defensive play?

 

[NickH8]

First time for over a month I did look on AHL Standings.

Griffins have raised on the 2nd position at Central Division. Man, I remember they were almost dead last at some point.

Funny, how last season Toledo was carbon copy of this. Does Watson teams always have this kind of strugglin season starts, and then huge upswing? Seems to be, that his systems will take time to implement, but after they get it going, the results are great. Winning.

Central also seems to be an easy division though. Lost of team under .500.

What did catch on my eye, Griffins seems to be a low-scoring team. Their GAA is very low, 5th lowest at AHL.

Winning team through defensive play?

An AHL team with Johansson, Edvinsson, and Wallinder with Cossa and Hutchinson in net has got to be good defensively.

 

[Roomba With a Bauer]

I think Yzerman was just trying to flesh out a roster for this season and didn't expect the team to perform this well.

Now he possibly has a playoff team with extra depth in the A that can be called up after the trade deadline.

Unfortunately, Yzerman might opt to leave them in the AHL for GR's playoffs.

 

[lilidk]

I think Yzerman was just trying to flesh out a roster for this season and didn't expect the team to perform this well.

Now he possibly has a playoff team with extra depth in the A that can be called up after the trade deadline.

Unfortunately, Yzerman might opt to leave them in the AHL for GR's playoffs.

What team we going to see in February, team that shut down Vegas, or team that looks like tired against Ottawa. We have to see, buyers or sellers.

 

[heyfolks]

You can only pick ONE must have reach their max potential in this group. Who is it?

Doesn't it have to be Cossa?

 

[Rzombo4 prez]

You can only pick ONE must have reach their max potential in this group. Who is it?

Doesn't it have to be Cossa?

Probably depends on what you see their potential as. I think max Ed is probably more valuable than max Cossa. I think it is easier to find goaltending than elite defensemen if you need to turn outside of your organization.

 

[NickH8]

You can only pick ONE must have reach their max potential in this group. Who is it?

Doesn't it have to be Cossa?

If Cossas max potential is Vasilevskiy yes.