Prospect Info: Grand Rapids Griffins Discussion

[Pavels Dog]

sometimes I wonder how many people on this forum would defend it if Raymond or Seider weren't already waiver eligible due to games played and Yzerman sent them down to the AHL just because

I don't think i'd like the answer

sometimes I wonder how many people complain about prospects being in the AHL or SHL simply because they're impatient, not because of any actual critical thinking about what's best for the player and team long term.

 

[Konnan511]

I checked out after I posted yesterday. So there's a lot to reply to and I'm just going to keep it simple:

You guys seems to think he can't learn to be a better NHL player by playing in the AHL. I'm not so sure you have used anything other than opinions to support that, and I disagree with it.

NorrisNick's little 5 Why experiment conveniently took a left turn into "because he hasn't played against NHL competition" when it just could have easily took a right turn to "because he needs more time improving/perfecting his game against AHL competition".

Personally, I see a benefit to both arguments, but I also think he should be working on perfecting his game towards overcoming NHL competition. You start getting into a Sunk Cost Fallacy, or moreover you start infringing on the the Economic Theory of Efficiency when you wait for that prospect to be "100% ready".

 

[izlez]

Personally, I see a benefit to both arguments, but I also think he should be working on perfecting his game towards overcoming NHL competition. You start getting into a Sunk Cost Fallacy, or moreover you start infringing on the the Economic Theory of Efficiency when you wait for that prospect to be "100% ready".

I'm not saying he needs to be 100% ready.

I'm saying based on my eye test, and the small sample size of numbers I provided to support my eye test, he is too far from being ready to be given NHL ice time and his mistakes will hurt us.

 

[Pavels Dog]

Personally, I see a benefit to both arguments, but I also think he should be working on perfecting his game towards overcoming NHL competition.

Overcoming AHL competition is a good step on the way. Anyone who thinks he is dominating his opposition probably isn't watching GR much.

 

[norrisnick]

I checked out after I posted yesterday. So there's a lot to reply to and I'm just going to keep it simple:

You guys seems to think he can't learn to be a better NHL player by playing in the AHL. I'm not so sure you have used anything other than opinions to support that, and I disagree with it.

NorrisNick's little 5 Why experiment conveniently took a left turn into "because he hasn't played against NHL competition" when it just could have easily took a right turn to "because he needs more time improving/perfecting his game against AHL competition".

Ed and Burger are AHL Allstars. That shouldn't happen. If you have prospects in the A at all-star levels you should find a spot for them on the big boy roster.

 

[Rzombo4 prez]

Overcoming AHL competition is a good step on the way. Anyone who thinks he is dominating his opposition probably isn't watching GR much.

And you are watching AHL hockey? I would love to hear from a poster who routinely watches AHL hockey and thinks he shouldn't be in the NHL. In the dozen or so AHL games I have watched he has routinely been the team's most effective player.

There is absolutely a benefit to playing in the AHL. It is a very good league with very good hockey players. I also think you need to show a certain level of competence at that level before being called up to the NHL. There are, however, diminishing returns to leaving a player there for an indefinite period of time. 90 games of AHL hockey is enough in my eyes. It is a very bad sign if a prospect needs extended periods of time in the AHL. Like I said in an earlier post, if anything this should be telling us to pump the brakes on Ed as a prospect. In my experience watching and participating in youth hockey, beyond the foundational stage, players get better when forced to play against better players (even more so when bigger and stronger). After 90 games of AHL hockey, I think he needs to finish his development at the NHL level.

I hope those who think he is not ready for NHL hockey strongly object if Yzerman calls him up this season. If they do not, we will know that they are simply appealing to authority. He is either ready for the NHL or he is not.

 

[Konnan511]

Overcoming AHL competition is a good step on the way. Anyone who thinks he is dominating his opposition probably isn't watching GR much.

I agree very much overcoming AHL is a good step, but suggesting he needs to perfect it, to me, sounds like aiming low.

 

[izlez]

Ed and Burger are AHL Allstars. That shouldn't happen. If you have prospects in the A at all-star levels you should find a spot for them on the big boy roster.

1. This is very much opinion

2. I can't really find an immediate answer. How are players selected to the AHL all-star game? Fan vote? I doubt I put much stock in it either way as it is a PR event and 7th overall selection Simon Edvinsson is clearly the better sell than career AHLer Brogan Rafferty

 

[norrisnick]

I agree very much overcoming AHL is a good step, but suggesting he needs to perfect it, to me, sounds like aiming low.

Because it's less about their play and more about everyone else's health. It's a platitude for just killing time until injuries happen.

 

[Rzombo4 prez]

I checked out after I posted yesterday. So there's a lot to reply to and I'm just going to keep it simple:

You guys seems to think he can't learn to be a better NHL player by playing in the AHL. I'm not so sure you have used anything other than opinions to support that, and I disagree with it.

NorrisNick's little 5 Why experiment conveniently took a left turn into "because he hasn't played against NHL competition" when it just could have easily took a right turn to "because he needs more time improving/perfecting his game against AHL competition".

Are you really offering anything more than an opinion and some statistics of limited utility backed by an insanely small sample size? We also shouldn't act like he hasn't played much in the AHL. He has already played 90 games (in addition to 11 NHL games). I was fine with him starting the season in GR. We are now, however, half-way through the season and it is time for him to be pushed by NHL competition.

 

[izlez]

Are you really offering anything more than an opinion and some statistics of limited utility backed by an insanely small sample size? We also shouldn't act like he hasn't played much in the AHL. He has already played 90 games (in addition to 11 NHL games). I was fine with him starting the season in GR. We are now, however, half-way through the season and it is time for him to be pushed by NHL competition.

I totally get that I'm just giving my own opinion and using a small sample size.

I'm just pushing back on the definitive statements that he's NHL ready, he can't learn in the AHL, and that he's not mistake prone, which were all made without ANY supporting evidence.

 

[ricky0034]

Are you really offering anything more than an opinion and some statistics of limited utility backed by an insanely small sample size? We also shouldn't act like he hasn't played much in the AHL. He has already played 90 games (in addition to 11 NHL games). I was fine with him starting the season in GR. We are now, however, half-way through the season and it is time for him to be pushed by NHL competition.

not only a small sample size but also a small sample size where like 85% of the sample being used is from last season

which is just bizarre when making the argument that someone isn't ready now

 

[izlez]

not only a small sample size but also a small sample size where like 85% of the sample being used is from last season

which is just bizarre when making the argument that someone isn't ready now

It's crazy that if I made the exact same argument without using any evidence whatsoever to support it, y'all would be on board.

 

[DoMakc]

It's crazy that if I made the exact same argument without using any evidence whatsoever to support it, y'all would be on board.

Yes, but evidence that you are using are not supporting your opinion whatsover, if your taking the contect into account. Comparing across different samples not the best tool, but whatever. And even if you not taking it into account HDCA/60 is pretty much on same level as everybody but Petry - so he is already as good as Chiarot. Should Simon play in AHL and Chiarot in NHL on 5 times costs?

 

[Rzombo4 prez]

It's crazy that if I made the exact same argument without using any evidence whatsoever to support it, y'all would be on board.

What would you expect those statistics to look like if he played 25 or 30 games?

 

[izlez]

What would you expect those statistics to look like if he played 25 or 30 games?

We're really going around in circles here, but: If he were added to the Red Wings today, I would predict his rates of goals against and high danger chances against to remain the highest on the team. This is because when I have watched him play, I see him making lots of mistakes, as many young players do, and I have not seen evidence that he has corrected those yet.

 

[odin1981]

AlJo is probably gonna be a homegrown 3rd pairing pk'r. Wallinder hopefully is a second pairing guy, and Edvinsson is hopefully a first pairing d man long term. Then you factor ASP but in all likelihood probably 1 of 4 won't make expectation.

 

[Rzombo4 prez]

We're really going around in circles here, but: If he were added to the Red Wings today, I would predict his rates of goals against and high danger chances against to remain the highest on the team. This is because when I have watched him play, I see him making lots of mistakes, as many young players do, and I have not seen evidence that he has corrected those yet.

If you aren't willing to watch him play,, how will you know if he has corrected those "mistakes" yet? You are putting him in an impossible situation and proving to everyone how foolish it is to follow hockey "analytics" right off the cliff. Growing pains are something that you need to live with as an organization. You won't get the long-term gain without the short-term pain. If you are expecting that his rates of goals against and high danger chances will never improve relative to the other defensemen on the team, this is probably a player we should move on from.

Sadly, really good players don't spend much time in the AHL. If you go back and look at the best defensemen drafted in the last five or six years, very few of them spent significant time in the AHL. The fact that he is still there after 90 games is not a great sign if we are being honest, especially considering who he has to beat out for a job on this team.

AlJo is probably gonna be a homegrown 3rd pairing pk'r. Wallinder hopefully is a second pairing guy, and Edvinsson is hopefully a first pairing d man long term. Then you factor ASP but in all likelihood probably 1 of 4 won't make expectation.

At most two of those guys will be regulars on the big club.

 

[Frk It]

Sadly, really good players don't spend much time in the AHL. If you go back and look at the best defensemen drafted in the last five or six years, very few of them spent significant time in the AHL. The fact that he is still there after 90 games is not a great sign if we are being honest, especially considering who he has to beat out for a job on this team.

I’ll push back on this.

Seider played 90 games in the AHL/SHL before playing for Detroit.

Edvinsson would have been on the same trajectory if we didn’t overload the Wings roster for …. still don’t know why.

I don’t think the extra year of development is an indictment on him as a prospect and I also don’t think it will kill him.

 

[Rzombo4 prez]

I’ll push back on this.

Seider played 90 games in the AHL/SHL before playing for Detroit.

Edvinsson would have been on the same trajectory if we didn’t overload the Wings roster for …. still don’t know why.

I don’t think the extra year of development is an indictment on him as a prospect and I also don’t think it will kill him.

Well you could add 40+ games of SHL hockey to Ed's resume if you wanted to. How about Dobson, Sanderson, Hughes (x2), Bouchard, etc.? No one is being banished to the AHL for 3 years like they once were.

The overloading the roster comment shows it really isn't about current ability. Again, once you have shown a certain level of proficiency in the AHL, a prospect needs to be challenged by NHL competition, especially when the big club is not at its peak competitively.

 

[jaster]

Sadly, really good players don't spend much time in the AHL. If you go back and look at the best defensemen drafted in the last five or six years, very few of them spent significant time in the AHL. The fact that he is still there after 90 games is not a great sign if we are being honest, especially considering who he has to beat out for a job on this team.

So which is it? Edvinsson is good enough but being held down in the A by incompetent management? Or Ed really just isn't that good, given he's been there for 90 games, and we should adjust our expectations of his ceiling?

 

[izlez]

If you aren't willing to watch him play,, how will you know if he has corrected those "mistakes" yet?

I have watched him play. He was in the NHL a month ago.

You are putting him in an impossible situation and proving to everyone how foolish it is to follow hockey "analytics" right off the cliff.

I'm not relying on analytics. I'm telling you that when I have watched him with my eyeballs he has been BAD. I am supplementing that with objective data to support what I am saying. If you would like to ignore the "analytics" and just take my word for it, feel free: He has been very bad in the NHL because I said so, trust me bro.

Growing pains are something that you need to live with as an organization.

That's one opinion. Alternatively, the Red Wings had years of success by letting players develop at lower levels.

You won't get the long-term gain without the short-term pain.

That's one opinion. Alternatively, you could develop players in lower leagues so that when they play in the NHL, they are ready for the NHL.

If you are expecting that his rates of goals against and high danger chances will never improve relative to the other defensemen on the team, this is probably a player we should move on from.

I don't expect that they will have improved within the last month, since he was last bad in the NHL. Since that time, his numbers are not impressive in the AHL and I see him show up negatively in the highlights, so I don't suspect he got radically better in that short time. In the grand scheme, I think he can improve his game by playing in the AHL. Learning the pace of the game against pros on a small ice and being coached up on his mistakes will have him improve, without being given a spot he doesn't deserve and hurting the Red Wings chances to win games today

 

[jaster]

Just a reminder.... the NHL is not a development league. There is a high bar to entry. If Ed has not reached that bar, it doesn't make sense to throw him in so that he can "learn." You learn once you are already 90% of an NHL player and require mostly just finishing touches. If you are at 75%, you are not ready and you need more time in the AHL to get to 90%. And, this will probably come as a shock to some... talent has only a small impact on that %.

Now, if one wants to argue that Ed has reached that bar, that he is 90% of an NHL player, and that he's ready for just those finishing touches, be my guest. I think he's in a gray area, and it can be argued either way. I agree with some others here that he made too many critical errors in his NHL time and that he indeed could benefit from more AHL time. Has the past month benefited him to the point that he should be brought back up? That, I don't claim to know.

 

[Rzombo4 prez]

So which is it? Edvinsson is good enough but being held down in the A by incompetent management? Or Ed really just isn't that good, given he's been there for 90 games, and we should adjust our expectations of his ceiling?

That is the whole point. Izelz is trying to argue he likes the prospect but doesn't think he is ready for the NHL. If you take the position he isn't ready for the NHL yet, you can't simultaneously argue he is still a good prospect at this point. He has been in the AHL for 90 games already and the developmental benefits will start to decay very shortly.

 

[izlez]

That is the whole point. Izelz is trying to argue he likes the prospect but doesn't think he is ready for the NHL. If you take the position he isn't ready for the NHL yet, you can't simultaneously argue he is still a good prospect at this point. He has been in the AHL for 90 games already and the developmental benefits will start to decay very shortly.

This is your opinion, and I disagree with it.

As an overall philosophy, I think people on HFBoards try to rush kids to the NHL too fast and I think Edvinsson can absolutely continue to improve in the AHL.