Value of: Goaltender to EDM

[McFlyingV]

Oilers will have no choice but to buy him out. My posts are filled with reality. Your belief that Campbell is tradeable is pure fantasy.

You might be right, but people have said this exact same thing numerous times on this site only to see an "untradable" contract traded. Most contracts are tradable in the right circumstances, but again I don't know if the price ends up being worth it for the Oilers anyways so its a moot point.

 

[Seachd]

Recognizing highest guys are core, not moved, you either
keep Nurse and add to that core, which works for now, but not long term
in which case you live w/current cap reality or make other moves which are hard to see
or
you deal Nurse now and take some pain now to avoid being saddled with him end years of contract.

btw-- whoev takes Nurse now likely has to retain another 1.x to get him to 3m cap hit per to make final acquirer take the long term contract

Whatever planet you’re on, the atmosphere must be thin.

 

[Junohockeyfan]

You might be right, but people have said this exact same thing numerous times on this site only to see an "untradable" contract traded. Most contracts are tradable in the right circumstances, but again I don't know if the price ends up being worth it for the Oilers anyways so its a moot point.

All contracts are "tradeable" if you add the requisite sweetener. In the case of Campbell, it would be crippling to the Oilers to give up what is needed to trade Campbell.

I think you should be focusing on trades that do not include Campbell. Perhaps ones that include other players to offset salary.

 

[Junohockeyfan]

You might be right, but people have said this exact same thing numerous times on this site only to see an "untradable" contract traded. Most contracts are tradable in the right circumstances, but again I don't know if the price ends up being worth it for the Oilers anyways so its a moot point.

What would you offer for Sam Montembault?

9-5-3, 2.94GAA on an absolutely awful team. Rest of the goalies have combined for 8-12-2 (3.53 GAA and 3.30 GAA respectively). 1M caphit this season followed by 3.1M for the next 3 x seasons.

 

[Homesick]

Campbell will be bought out this summer.
I can't believe some moron thinks the Oilers would have retain 50% on Nurse and pay a team to take him on. Then double down with another team retaining more to off load him

 

[McFlyingV]

What would you offer for Sam Montembault?

9-5-3, 2.94GAA on an absolutely awful team. Rest of the goalies have combined for 8-12-2 (3.53 GAA and 3.30 GAA respectively). 1M caphit this season followed by 3.1M for the next 3 x seasons.

Haven't watched him enough. I've seen a lot of highlight reel saves from him and seems to move well in his net but not an elite level. His underlying stats are ok, but also nothing special. I think he'd be a decent target for Edmonton, but there's probably at least 5 better targets out there. They need to get their next goalie acquisition right, especially if they have term, so while I like him from what I've seen I feel like he's a risky gamble.

 

[Fishy McScales]

bold: let's not be disingenuous here.
Everyone spins their stuff.

Italic: you want your cake and eat it too.
You have a structural cap problem [= too much $$$ for too long term].
Recognizing highest guys are core, not moved, you either
keep Nurse and add to that core, which works for now, but not long term
in which case you live w/current cap reality or make other moves which are hard to see
or
you deal Nurse now and take some pain now to avoid being saddled with him end years of contract.

btw-- whoev takes Nurse now likely has to retain another 1.x to get him to 3m cap hit per to make final acquirer take the long term contract

underline:
yes, there is no magic pushbutton solution which does everything all in one

Oil would need follow up deals, like Lindgren from Rangers, or other, who is a stopgap. You are not married to Lindgren [or whoever] long term, so that = flexibility, and if, for example, it was Lindgren, you would still have coupla mil cap space for this year for a further addition.

So I leave it to you, my friend.
Live w/Nurse = better d now and very constricted cap space AND big risk if the wheels fall off early you ARE effed
OR
downgrade a bit on D now w/flexible stopgap that = a few bucks cap help now, but really = long term cap relief

Delete your account, please.

 

[Hobnobs]

Haven't watched him enough. I've seen a lot of highlight reel saves from him and seems to move well in his net but not an elite level. His underlying stats are ok, but also nothing special. I think he'd be a decent target for Edmonton, but there's probably at least 5 better targets out there. They need to get their next goalie acquisition right, especially if they have term, so while I like him from what I've seen I feel like he's a risky gamble.

Skinenr has been pretty good last few games I've seen so I would probably get a decent backup for him and keep trying to build some kind of defense around the goalies.

Don't know if Montembault is the answer but there are a few cheap options out there.

 

[McFlyingV]

Skinenr has been pretty good last few games I've seen so I would probably get a decent backup for him and keep trying to build some kind of defense around the goalies.

Don't know if Montembault is the answer but there are a few cheap options out there.

He has, but Skinner's had good stretches before and then seen his game fall off when he's overplayed. I'd rather they go out and try to find another goalie who can carry some of the load. Either a proven starting goalie or a younger goalie with upside who can split games.

 

[Hobnobs]

He has, but Skinner's had good stretches before and then seen his game fall off when he's overplayed. I'd rather they go out and try to find another goalie who can carry some of the load. Either a proven starting goalie or a younger goalie with upside who can split games.

I was thinking a veteran backup to make sure not to overload Skinner. Or possibly a cheap 1B but they usually aren't so cheap and/or will leave because of salary demands in the off-season.

 

[TFHockey]

bold: let's not be disingenuous here.
Everyone spins their stuff.

Italic: you want your cake and eat it too.
You have a structural cap problem [= too much $$$ for too long term].
Recognizing highest guys are core, not moved, you either
keep Nurse and add to that core, which works for now, but not long term
in which case you live w/current cap reality or make other moves which are hard to see
or
you deal Nurse now and take some pain now to avoid being saddled with him end years of contract.

btw-- whoev takes Nurse now likely has to retain another 1.x to get him to 3m cap hit per to make final acquirer take the long term contract

underline:
yes, there is no magic pushbutton solution which does everything all in one

Oil would need follow up deals, like Lindgren from Rangers, or other, who is a stopgap. You are not married to Lindgren [or whoever] long term, so that = flexibility, and if, for example, it was Lindgren, you would still have coupla mil cap space for this year for a further addition.

So I leave it to you, my friend.
Live w/Nurse = better d now and very constricted cap space AND big risk if the wheels fall off early you ARE effed
OR
downgrade a bit on D now w/flexible stopgap that = a few bucks cap help now, but really = long term cap relief

Hey Bern,

Nurse is overpaid for what he brings, I don't think you'll find a lot of people to argue with that statement. However, he has played really well during this heater the Oilers have been on. Rather than playing like a, I'll call it, a five to six Million dollar defenseman like he usually does, he has been playing lights out good. Do I even dare say it? In this last 20 games or so he has almost played up to his contract.

So you won't find too many takers on the Oilers side when it calls for a 50% salary retention. At $4.5 -$4.6 Million Nurse would be underpaid for what he brings. Also, losing him in the line up, while providing cap flexibility, would mean the Oilers would have to bring in someone to replace him and eat his minutes. Can they do that for $4.5 Million? That's pretty hard to imagine.

He isn't a legit #1 D on most nights (IMHO) but he's better than a 2nd line defenseman. Does that makes sense? Hard to pigeonhole what he is but I can tell you what he isn't. He isn't a bad defenseman.

There is a ton of hate for Nurse on this site, some guys going as far as to say at any number he is a negative asset. That's crazy and is pretty telling - they don't know what they're talking about. Or they just hate the Oilers. Dealer's choice.

So you won't get a lot of friendly responses from Oiler fans when it comes to trading Nurse with retention. Especially 50%!

Lastly, and I stress this enough, his massive eight year $9.25 Million AAV contract was the result of the Oilers Bridging him not once but twice. MacTavish did that in 2013 for three years at $1.7 Million AAV (fair coming off his ELC) and then Chiarelli did it again - two years at $3.2 Million. Nurse wanted a longer term deal and the Oilers could've had him for way cheaper but they didn't and Nurse decided to gambled on himself. He signed the short term deal and when he was going to get to free agency the Oilers (Holland at this point) had no choice. Klefbom was out injured never to return, and no one in the organization could take on those massive minutes. And then Holland helped set the market by making it possible for Chicago to sign Seth Jones for $9.5 Million.

So can you blame Nurse for signing that contract? Nope.

Can you blame the Oilers for some awful luck with Klefbom? Nope.

Can you blame them for not signing Nurse long term before that? Yup.

 

[bernmeister]

Hey Bern,

Nurse is overpaid for what he brings, I don't think you'll find a lot of people to argue with that statement. However, he has played really well during this heater the Oilers have been on. Rather than playing like a, I'll call it, a five to six Million dollar defenseman like he usually does, he has been playing lights out good. Do I even dare say it? In this last 20 games or so he has almost played up to his contract.

So you won't find too many takers on the Oilers side when it calls for a 50% salary retention. At $4.5 -$4.6 Million Nurse would be underpaid for what he brings. Also, losing him in the line up, while providing cap flexibility, would mean the Oilers would have to bring in someone to replace him and eat his minutes. Can they do that for $4.5 Million? That's pretty hard to imagine.

He isn't a legit #1 D on most nights (IMHO) but he's better than a 2nd line defenseman. Does that makes sense? Hard to pigeonhole what he is but I can tell you what he isn't. He isn't a bad defenseman.

There is a ton of hate for Nurse on this site, some guys going as far as to say at any number he is a negative asset. That's crazy and is pretty telling - they don't know what they're talking about. Or they just hate the Oilers. Dealer's choice.

So you won't get a lot of friendly responses from Oiler fans when it comes to trading Nurse with retention. Especially 50%!

Lastly, and I stress this enough, his massive eight year $9.25 Million AAV contract was the result of the Oilers Bridging him not once but twice. MacTavish did that in 2013 for three years at $1.7 Million AAV (fair coming off his ELC) and then Chiarelli did it again - two years at $3.2 Million. Nurse wanted a longer term deal and the Oilers could've had him for way cheaper but they didn't and Nurse decided to gambled on himself. He signed the short term deal and when he was going to get to free agency the Oilers (Holland at this point) had no choice. Klefbom was out injured never to return, and no one in the organization could take on those massive minutes. And then Holland helped set the market by making it possible for Chicago to sign Seth Jones for $9.5 Million.

So can you blame Nurse for signing that contract? Nope.

Can you blame the Oilers for some awful luck with Klefbom? Nope.

Can you blame them for not signing Nurse long term before that? Yup.

excellent post
as explained
either
take hit to status quo for immediate roster flexibility AND long term structural cap relief
OR
ride Nurse now, accept immediate cap constraints ok and more importantly, you gamble on Nurse long term

You correctly pt out they should have long termed him earlier for cheaper if they were gonna go there at all.

Rs did same stupidity this past off season not long terming KAM
yeah, it's good now but will cost later

 

[PinSeeker]

Hey Bern,

Nurse is overpaid for what he brings, I don't think you'll find a lot of people to argue with that statement. However, he has played really well during this heater the Oilers have been on. Rather than playing like a, I'll call it, a five to six Million dollar defenseman like he usually does, he has been playing lights out good. Do I even dare say it? In this last 20 games or so he has almost played up to his contract.

Not a chance. At 9.5 you put up offense at a top 15 level minimum. He does not have the offensive acumen to do this, and has not done so even during this heater.

He got lucky that his bridge ending coincided with the COVID year where he caught lightning in a bottle and somehow potted 16 goals in that shortened year. Has not been anywhere near elite, nor does he QB the powerplay, due to his lack of offensive instincts.

And yes I am sour if you could not tell!

 

[GOilers88]

underline: feel free to elaborate, I'll check in tom.

bold: That is not a match b'c Rs do not need cap space that desperately, and have an escape valve on most of Trouba's 8m if they did

yes IF the Rs were that desperate now and had no safety valves,, then yes your illustration would be accurate but it is not the case

italic
issue is not how good Nurse is/is not.
It is if Oil need cap desperately and have other options

consider Leafs
we see semi regular mention of moving Marner to repurpose cap
similar

To be fair nobody has suggested the Leafs retain half of Marner's contract and attach assets to him to move, either.

 

[bernmeister]

To be fair nobody has suggested the Leafs retain half of Marner's contract and attach assets to him to move, either.

no prob w/trying to be fair, so let's note:
Marn has 1 season after this. ONE
oer cf he is 26

zero risk he declines or becomes cap albatross in sense of not earning up to his paycheck

again Nurse fine now. Let's see in the 29-30 season

got stuff to do expect to be tied up coupla days

til then peeps

 

[SupremeTeam16]

no prob w/trying to be fair, so let's note:
Marn has 1 season after this. ONE
oer cf he is 26

zero risk he declines or becomes cap albatross in sense of not earning up to his paycheck

again Nurse fine now. Let's see in the 29-30 season

got stuff to do expect to be tied up coupla days

til then peeps

The cap in 29-30 is going to be quite higher then it is today, significantly reducing the percentage of the cap his contract account s for, it’s also a back diving contract making it easier to trade or maybe he ends up on ltir in his later years.

Also you never answered the question of how the Oilers find a defender who can fill his role for 4.6M or less. You’re either ending up with a worse player or less cap space.

It’s a stupid idea from a wannabe Pinocchio gm.

 

[bernmeister]

The cap in 29-30 is going to be quite higher then it is today, significantly reducing the percentage of the cap his contract account s for, it’s also a back diving contract making it easier to trade or maybe he ends up on ltir in his later years.

Also you never answered the question of how the Oilers find a defender who can fill his role for 4.6M or less. You’re either ending up with a worse player or less cap space.

It’s a stupid idea from a wannabe Pinocchio gm.

I answered it
I did not say you would get a guy as good for same or less.
In fact I said specifically you can't have your cake and eat it too, that you have to pick your poison.
I emphasized you do this now if structural cap resolution is important, which apparently it is not.
And that is fine .. for now.
If in 2 yrs you need mo $$ and Nurse happens to be breaking down,
don't come be-atching to me.

I said the 4.6 whatev, IF you went that way, you make another deal, for illustration purposes only I said Lindgren [not Lindy he is a better fit to DET] but again, for illustration purposes only, that is example of a guy making less $ for shorter term = flexibility


don't shoot the messenger b'c you want everything and don't want to make any hard choices to get out of a bind your club did to itself

now, I have real world shit for coupla days
no extensive posting til end o da wk

 

[bucks_oil]

He has been better lately. I just think babysitting Bouchard is such a tough assignment for a partner. Ekholm can do it, Nurse can't. McDavid has also been playing above average defensively lately. As a Flames fan I dislike that. If he becomes a 2 way C and you get another D and goaltending has a decent run you guys could win with that.


Yes that's too much. As I said, I think a Edmonton 1st and a prospect is the right price for Saros in a vacuum. I'm just doubtful Nashville wants to move him and think you'd have to give extra to convince them.

I’d easily do two firsts for Saros, plus picks/prospects to make money work…

 

[bucks_oil]

nice of you to cherry pick stats
per cf, he is not a ufa until '29-30 season
we are now 23-24, that is 7 seasons away

yeah, he is prime-ish now, but a guy entering prime is like Sanderson, 8 seasons beg. next yr locked in at 9per just as he approaches 30

If you are lucky, you will only have 3-4 years where the wheels fall off, etc
and who is gonna take a 9.25 cap dump then?

You pay now to get flexbiity not only now, but later

And don't shoot the messenger.
In a vacuum you might keep Nurse, but who else can actually be moved?

You're gonna eat soup w'a buy out
that will help slightly
what else Oil can do to bolster team remains to be seen

“Cherry Picks Stats” while presenting none.

Nurse is 28 dude… who was the last D-man that skated like Nurse that you saw fall off a cliff at 35?

Just stop. The guy would be a steal at 7. Larceny and sell the farm, literally, at 4.6

 

[ElPrimeTime]

That strategy only works if the other team has a braindead defensman willing to slam the player right into the goalie.

I have and will continue to die on this hill... the fault of that series loss was on MacT. If he wasn't rotating his backup goalies for fun, when Roli goes down, Markkanen comes in and doesn't have the bonehead play Conklin did. Who knows who would have won game 1.

 

[bucks_oil]

excellent post
as explained
either
take hit to status quo for immediate roster flexibility AND long term structural cap relief
OR
ride Nurse now, accept immediate cap constraints ok and more importantly, you gamble on Nurse long term

You correctly pt out they should have long termed him earlier for cheaper if they were gonna go there at all.

Rs did same stupidity this past off season not long terming KAM
yeah, it's good now but will cost later

But Bern... you are completely ignoring reality with the bolded.

Nurse is our #1 or #2 or #3 defenseman. Take your pick, it doesn't change the debate that much.

Even if he is miscast in a top pairing role, we will need another top-3 defenseman to eat his minutes. "Cherry picked" as you accused, the stats are the stats... he plays 23-25mins a night for us and all things aside, he is an outscorer at EV and puts up 35-45 points for us without even considering powerplay.

Are we going to promote Ceci into that role? God no.

So we have to replace Nurse now, right? With a guy who can play all situations for 24mins a night. Can you find us one available in trade? And if you do, how much do they make? It needs to be less than $4.6M (today and ideally for the duration of Nurse's contract) for all of this to make sense.

So there is no "immediate roster flexibility", since $4.6M retained on Nurse + $XM for Nurse replacement will surely > $9.25M. The Oilers don't "save" anything.

The only way retaining 50% on Nurse and then replacing him would make sense is if you honestly believe his on ice contributions are worth less than $4.6M. And that's where your "logic" falls down.

You can't honestly believe that do you?

 

[bernmeister]

But Bern... you are completely ignoring reality with the bolded.

Nurse is our #1 or #2 or #3 defenseman. Take your pick, it doesn't change the debate that much.

Even if he is miscast in a top pairing role, we will need another top-3 defenseman to eat his minutes. "Cherry picked" as you accused, the stats are the stats... he plays 23-25mins a night for us and all things aside, he is an outscorer at EV and puts up 35-45 points for us without even considering powerplay.

Are we going to promote Ceci into that role? God no.

So we have to replace Nurse now, right? With a guy who can play all situations for 24mins a night. Can you find us one available in trade? And if you do, how much do they make? It needs to be less than $4.6M (today and ideally for the duration of Nurse's contract) for all of this to make sense.

So there is no "immediate roster flexibility", since $4.6M retained on Nurse + $XM for Nurse replacement will surely > $9.25M. The Oilers don't "save" anything.

The only way retaining 50% on Nurse and then replacing him would make sense is if you honestly believe his on ice contributions are worth less than $4.6M. And that's where your "logic" falls down.

You can't honestly believe that do you?

we agree on the bold [in that there is a trade off -- never said it was an even trade off, just one w/differing variables/results -- of immediate cap relief vs loss of immediate production from likelihood of inferior replacement].

But underline is not true
IF you luck out and Nurse holds up well, then enjoy your good fortune
But howev, everyone loses vs father time and most do so sooner than later.
If you wait to dump that contract then, yes, you will have less term and that will help
BUT
Nurse may very well devolve by then

So doing this now is an insurance buy hedging vs future disaster b'c as Oil fan noted, he was overpaid bc they did not extend him earlier for cheaper.

Should that even be a discussion?
In a vacuum, not nec.
But are you gonna need that 4.6-ish in coupla yrs to max Drai, e.g.?

Again don't shoot the messenger
and
keeping this on pt,
the thread is about netminder help
what are the options
you are saddled w/soup
so it is likely you're gonna have to something creative to have options to land a G from somewhere

ok, bern will get back to everyone coupla days

 

[Double Dion]

I’d easily do two firsts for Saros, plus picks/prospects to make money work…

I mean it's a steep price. I think 2 1st level assets is kind of what the price should be. How does Edmonton make the cap work?

 

[bucks_oil]

I mean it's a steep price. I think 2 1st level assets is kind of what the price should be. How does Edmonton make the cap work?

The cap is the issue. Nobody takes Campbell obviously, or rather, not at a price Edmonton could/would pay vs waiting for the summer buyout.

We'd have to jettison McLeod and Foegele before the deal and replace with ELC/league min. Even then, we'd still need a bit of retention on Saros.

The Oilers have precious few guys that they can move:

Unmovable (for whatever reason):
McD
Drai
Nuge
Hyman
Nurse

Movable assets > $1.5M are quite limited:
Kane @ $5M
Foegele @ $2.75M
Ceci @ $3.2M
McLeod @ $2.1M
Campbell @ $5M
Skinner @ $2.6M

After that, everybody makes too little to matter. Except for Kane or Campbell, even bundling two of those assets into the deal doesn't quite get you there once you factor in replacement value.

 

[Double Dion]

The cap is the issue. Nobody takes Campbell obviously, or rather, not at a price Edmonton could/would pay vs waiting for the summer buyout.

We'd have to jettison McLeod and Foegele before the deal and replace with ELC/league min. Even then, we'd still need a bit of retention on Saros.

The Oilers have precious few guys that they can move:

Unmovable (for whatever reason):
McD
Drai
Nuge
Hyman
Nurse

Movable assets > $1.5M are quite limited:
Kane @ $5M
Foegele @ $2.75M
Ceci @ $3.2M
McLeod @ $2.1M
Campbell @ $5M
Skinner @ $2.6M

After that, everybody makes too little to matter. Except for Kane or Campbell, even bundling two of those assets into the deal doesn't quite get you there once you factor in replacement value.

I wonder if they could use McLeod? He's a guy I think people might want. Buried a bit on Edmonton's roster,