Value of: Goaltender to EDM

[SupremeTeam16]

And yet people keep presuming Saros is. Maybe they're assuming Askarov is more ready than he is. Maybe it's because Nashville isn't New York and so folks don't bother to actually pay attention. Maybe they're so blinded by greed that they pay attention to the one Preds fan who keeps making up trade values and ignoring the dozens of others who keep saying that guy is completely out to lunch. Who knows. The point being is that the sales circumstances are very similar.

We can’t know what Nashvilles thinking is, even though they’ve stated they have no intention to trade him.

I see a lot of similarities between the way this situation is tracking and Gibson in Anaheim. He started out with elite numbers behind a good but fading team. They give him a big money long term deal with trade protection thinking the teams performance is sliding a bit but still a decent core in place and we can probably re-tool quickly but they kept sliding and along with it Gibsons performance goes in the toilet playing behind a rebuilding team right after signing a long term deal, which I’m sure he was thrilled about. Rumours of him wanting out but he’s basically untradeable with his contract and performance so him and the team are stuck with eachother.

I’ll call it right now, if Nashville keeps Saros, they’ll re-sign him to a long term 8M a year contract with some trade protection just in time for them to realize their core is aged out and the best they can hope for is coming close to the playoffs and they’re better off stripping it down and getting some fresh high end talent into the system. And Saros performance will struggle behind a bad team that’s backsliding and he’ll be untradeable with a new contract and they’ll be stuck with eachother.

If Nashville is smart they are looking to move him this trade deadline when there’s a hot goalie buyers market and they’re buying an elite goalie with a reasonable cap hit for two playoff runs.

 

[Score08]

Ulmark for drai send it .

 

[Tobias Kahun]

Go look at Nurse term + $$$$$

If Oil not severely cap constrained, sure, why do it.

Even now, gotta think 2x +

Howev, if it is ultimately determined that cap flexibility is an inescapable need
If no other options, then....

We could just trade McDavid to create cap space too.

About as realistic as your idea.

 

[McSuper]

He has been better lately. I just think babysitting Bouchard is such a tough assignment for a partner. Ekholm can do it, Nurse can't. McDavid has also been playing above average defensively lately. As a Flames fan I dislike that. If he becomes a 2 way C and you get another D and goaltending has a decent run you guys could win with that.


Yes that's too much. As I said, I think a Edmonton 1st and a prospect is the right price for Saros in a vacuum. I'm just doubtful Nashville wants to move him and think you'd have to give extra to convince them.

You don't know if the current Nurse can do it. He is playing at another level. In the pass you are right. Coffey has made a big defence to the D core especial with Nurse.

 

[wintersej]

Schneider had 100 games and elite stats when he was traded. He was a 27 year old goalie in his prime. His value was about as high as you could expect.

He was also a backup that hadn’t been exposed to a full workload.

High end goalies in their prime just don’t get moved. Because their cost is outrageous.

 

[Former Referee 68]

Ilya Samsonov is available

Trade for campbell? Done

 

[SupremeTeam16]

underline: feel free to elaborate, I'll check in tom.

bold: That is not a match b'c Rs do not need cap space that desperately, and have an escape valve on most of Trouba's 8m if they did

yes IF the Rs were that desperate now and had no safety valves,, then yes your illustration would be accurate but it is not the case

italic
issue is not how good Nurse is/is not.
It is if Oil need cap desperately and have other options

consider Leafs
we see semi regular mention of moving Marner to repurpose cap
similar

Foegele 2.75M
Kulak 2.75M

Both of whom they have internal replacements for.

Ceci 3.6M if they really needed space or wanted to upgrade.

That’s 9M right there and 5.5 of it they have dirt cheap internal replacements for.

Campbell buyout if they go that route opens up another 3M or so.

Cap is going up 4-5M next year too and based on revenue numbers should be growing at a healthy clip for the foreseeable future.

They’ve got nobody needing big raises next year.

Paying to trade Nurse and retaining 50% is the dumbest idea I’ve ever heard on this forum and that’s saying something. It’s comparable to suggesting the earth is flat.

 

[Bouboumaster]

I think Oilers fans would be thrilled if somehow they could shoehorn Jack Campbell into a deal for another goalie although I am not sure that is at all possible.

I think Philly fans would demand a big return for a guy like Carter Hart glossing over the fact that goalies don't tend to land a lot in trades.

Historically speaking:

2006 Dwayne Roloson traded from Minnesota to Edmonton for a 1st and a 3rd (an expensive rental at the time, Roloson resigned with the team though)
2008 Cristobal Huet traded from Montreal to Washington for a 2nd (Huet takes over as starter for the Caps)
2011 Craig Anderson traded from Colorado to Ottawa for goaltender Brian Elliott
2014 Roberto Luongo traded from Vancouver to Florida along with Steven Anthony for Jacob Markstrom and Shawn Matthias
2015 Devan Dubnyk traded from Arizona to Minnesota for a 3rd (Dubnyk was trying to salvage his career)
2018 Darcy Kuemper traded from L.A. to Arizona for Tobias Reider and Scott Wedgewood (Kuemper was a back up who looked ready to be a starter)
2020 Jack Campbell traded from L.A. to Toronto along with Kyle Clifford for two 3rds. Campbell was a back up with limited games in the NHL
2020 Robin Lehner traded from Chicago to Las Vegas for a 2nd and two mid tier prospects (Demin and Subban)

Typically the goalies that got moved were for 2nd, 3rd or 4th round picks. Not a lot in terms of return.

More recently *trades for only future considerations ignored, and there were quite a few!

2022 Scott Wedgewood traded from Arizona to Dallas for a 4th
2022 Kappo Kahkonen traded from Minnesota to San Jose for Defenseman Jacob Middleton
2022 Andrew Hammond traded from Montreal for Nate Schnarr
2022 MAF traded to Minnesota from Chicago for a conditional 2nd, turns into a 1st if Minny reaches the WCF and MAF wins 4 games in each round)
2022 Petr Mrazek traded from Toronto along with a 1st round pick (#25) to Chicago for a 2nd
2022 Alexander Georgiev traded from NYR to Colorado for two 3rds and and a 5th
2022 Ville Husso traded from St. Louis to Detroit for a 3rd
2022 Adin Hill traded from SJS to Las Vegas for a 4th

Again, we're seeing mostly 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th round picks being moved. Very few starters are moving though.

Some examples from this season:

2023 Keith Kinkaid traded from Boston to Colorado for Shane Bowers
2023 Johnathon Quick traded to CBJ along with a conditional 1st and a 3rd from the Kings for Joonas Korpisalo and Vladislav Gavrikov
2023 Johnathon Quick flipped to Las Vegas for Michael Hutchinson
2023 Mackenzie Blackwood traded to SJS from NJD for a 6th

So again the returns for goaltenders isn't great, but very few star goaltenders get moved. It is hard to determine the right cost for Hart as a result, but I think calling for multiple firsts or star players isn't very realistic. The same goes for Saros or whatever puckstopper you want to target. The goaltender market has rarely included 1sts and in the past 10 years they are usually conditional. In some cases a 1st was included to get RID of a goaltender. Oiler fans take note of this for considering what it would take to move Jack Campbell.

Carter Hart is much better than anyone else named here (Luongo, MAF and Quick were all out of their prime at the moment of the trade, and Hill was an unknown quantity)

The only true #1 goalie traded in there is Luongo, and he simply had to get out of Vancouver

No team is getting Hart if a 1st round pick or a solid prospect isn't attached to the trade, I assume

 

[Soundgarden]

We can’t know what Nashvilles thinking is, even though they’ve stated they have no intention to trade him.

I see a lot of similarities between the way this situation is tracking and Gibson in Anaheim. He started out with elite numbers behind a good but fading team. They give him a big money long term deal with trade protection thinking the teams performance is sliding a bit but still a decent core in place and we can probably re-tool quickly but they kept sliding and along with it Gibsons performance goes in the toilet playing behind a rebuilding team right after signing a long term deal, which I’m sure he was thrilled about. Rumours of him wanting out but he’s basically untradeable with his contract and performance so him and the team are stuck with eachother.

I’ll call it right now, if Nashville keeps Saros, they’ll re-sign him to a long term 8M a year contract with some trade protection just in time for them to realize their core is aged out and the best they can hope for is coming close to the playoffs and they’re better off stripping it down and getting some fresh high end talent into the system. And Saros performance will struggle behind a bad team that’s backsliding and he’ll be untradeable with a new contract and they’ll be stuck with eachother.

If Nashville is smart they are looking to move him this trade deadline when there’s a hot goalie buyers market and they’re buying an elite goalie with a reasonable cap hit for two playoff runs.

It'd be stupid to move Saros with our new core coming up, we're almost at the end of our rebuild and he's still young.

 

[ole ole]

Rumor was the Leafs offered a 6th. Can we get a 5th, we'll pay for the cab.

 

[McFlyingV]

He was also a backup that hadn’t been exposed to a full workload.

High end goalies in their prime just don’t get moved. Because their cost is outrageous.

He wasn't a back up he played in 30 games to Luongo's 20 the year he was traded. It was just the lockout year so the sample size wasn't as big.

 

[McJedi]

I think Oilers fans would be thrilled if somehow they could shoehorn Jack Campbell into a deal for another goalie although I am not sure that is at all possible.

I think Philly fans would demand a big return for a guy like Carter Hart glossing over the fact that goalies don't tend to land a lot in trades.

Historically speaking:

2006 Dwayne Roloson traded from Minnesota to Edmonton for a 1st and a 3rd (an expensive rental at the time, Roloson resigned with the team though)
2008 Cristobal Huet traded from Montreal to Washington for a 2nd (Huet takes over as starter for the Caps)
2011 Craig Anderson traded from Colorado to Ottawa for goaltender Brian Elliott
2014 Roberto Luongo traded from Vancouver to Florida along with Steven Anthony for Jacob Markstrom and Shawn Matthias
2015 Devan Dubnyk traded from Arizona to Minnesota for a 3rd (Dubnyk was trying to salvage his career)
2018 Darcy Kuemper traded from L.A. to Arizona for Tobias Reider and Scott Wedgewood (Kuemper was a back up who looked ready to be a starter)
2020 Jack Campbell traded from L.A. to Toronto along with Kyle Clifford for two 3rds. Campbell was a back up with limited games in the NHL
2020 Robin Lehner traded from Chicago to Las Vegas for a 2nd and two mid tier prospects (Demin and Subban)

Typically the goalies that got moved were for 2nd, 3rd or 4th round picks. Not a lot in terms of return.

More recently *trades for only future considerations ignored, and there were quite a few!

2022 Scott Wedgewood traded from Arizona to Dallas for a 4th
2022 Kappo Kahkonen traded from Minnesota to San Jose for Defenseman Jacob Middleton
2022 Andrew Hammond traded from Montreal for Nate Schnarr
2022 MAF traded to Minnesota from Chicago for a conditional 2nd, turns into a 1st if Minny reaches the WCF and MAF wins 4 games in each round)
2022 Petr Mrazek traded from Toronto along with a 1st round pick (#25) to Chicago for a 2nd
2022 Alexander Georgiev traded from NYR to Colorado for two 3rds and and a 5th
2022 Ville Husso traded from St. Louis to Detroit for a 3rd
2022 Adin Hill traded from SJS to Las Vegas for a 4th

Again, we're seeing mostly 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th round picks being moved. Very few starters are moving though.

Some examples from this season:

2023 Keith Kinkaid traded from Boston to Colorado for Shane Bowers
2023 Johnathon Quick traded to CBJ along with a conditional 1st and a 3rd from the Kings for Joonas Korpisalo and Vladislav Gavrikov
2023 Johnathon Quick flipped to Las Vegas for Michael Hutchinson
2023 Mackenzie Blackwood traded to SJS from NJD for a 6th

So again the returns for goaltenders isn't great, but very few star goaltenders get moved. It is hard to determine the right cost for Hart as a result, but I think calling for multiple firsts or star players isn't very realistic. The same goes for Saros or whatever puckstopper you want to target. The goaltender market has rarely included 1sts and in the past 10 years they are usually conditional. In some cases a 1st was included to get RID of a goaltender. Oiler fans take note of this for considering what it would take to move Jack Campbell.

You seem to forget the most important part. Hart and Saros probably aren’t available. Neither team has any reason to trade them unless you overpay.

 

[Double Dion]

You don't know if the current Nurse can do it. He is playing at another level. In the pass you are right. Coffey has made a big defence to the D core especial with Nurse.

I guess we'll know when we see it again. It's possible certainly, but the evidence at this point shows he hasn't been able to.

 

[Draiskull]

Trouba is not on the table for Nurse, I never said that

lol yourself
either you need the cap flexibility or you don't

As it stands now, you live in the bed you made, you have no signif room for any cap maneuverability and few options to create cap space
that may yet work for you, we'll see

but meanwhile McDrai clock is ticking....

The bed that is made is looking pretty comfy at the moment with only 3 losses in last 17GP. Oilers need cap flexibility to add depth at deadline and not to trade away core players.

Once again lol @ retaining 50% on Nurse for cap reasons.

 

[Draiskull]

It'd be stupid to move Saros with our new core coming up, we're almost at the end of our rebuild and he's still young.

OK fine. Keep him and tradecus Askarov

 

[wintersej]

He wasn't a back up he played in 30 games to Luongo's 20 the year he was traded. It was just the lockout year so the sample size wasn't as big.

I mean the point stands that he hadn’t been exposed to a full workload.

 

[McFlyingV]

I mean the point stands that he hadn’t been exposed to a full workload.

Well he was in terms of percentage just over a much shorter time period given that the schedule was more condensed than a regular season. I'd argue 30/48 games that season was more like playing 35+ in a 48 game span given how condensed the schedule was.

Regardless he was regarded as one of the top 5-10 goalies in the league at the time.

 

[ManofSteel55]

Trouba is not on the table for Nurse, I never said that

lol yourself
either you need the cap flexibility or you don't

As it stands now, you live in the bed you made, you have no signif room for any cap maneuverability and few options to create cap space
that may yet work for you, we'll see

but meanwhile McDrai clock is ticking....

Trading Nurse at 50% doesn't give any cap flexibility as we would need to replace him. And we couldn't do that easily, or for the cap space we would gain by moving him. A defenseman of Nurse's caliber would cost 7M+ on the open market.

 

[Czechboy]

Campbell, Xavier B and our 1st for Mrazek.

Campbell, Bro and our 1st for Vejmelka

It does appear that Skinner/Rodrigue could be a thing as early as next season. Could be a real nice thing. But we gotta get rid of the Campbell contract first.

 

[Scintillating10]

I think Oilers fans would be thrilled if somehow they could shoehorn Jack Campbell into a deal for another goalie although I am not sure that is at all possible.

I think Philly fans would demand a big return for a guy like Carter Hart glossing over the fact that goalies don't tend to land a lot in trades.

Historically speaking:

2006 Dwayne Roloson traded from Minnesota to Edmonton for a 1st and a 3rd (an expensive rental at the time, Roloson resigned with the team though)
2008 Cristobal Huet traded from Montreal to Washington for a 2nd (Huet takes over as starter for the Caps)
2011 Craig Anderson traded from Colorado to Ottawa for goaltender Brian Elliott
2014 Roberto Luongo traded from Vancouver to Florida along with Steven Anthony for Jacob Markstrom and Shawn Matthias
2015 Devan Dubnyk traded from Arizona to Minnesota for a 3rd (Dubnyk was trying to salvage his career)
2018 Darcy Kuemper traded from L.A. to Arizona for Tobias Reider and Scott Wedgewood (Kuemper was a back up who looked ready to be a starter)
2020 Jack Campbell traded from L.A. to Toronto along with Kyle Clifford for two 3rds. Campbell was a back up with limited games in the NHL
2020 Robin Lehner traded from Chicago to Las Vegas for a 2nd and two mid tier prospects (Demin and Subban)

Typically the goalies that got moved were for 2nd, 3rd or 4th round picks. Not a lot in terms of return.

More recently *trades for only future considerations ignored, and there were quite a few!

2022 Scott Wedgewood traded from Arizona to Dallas for a 4th
2022 Kappo Kahkonen traded from Minnesota to San Jose for Defenseman Jacob Middleton
2022 Andrew Hammond traded from Montreal for Nate Schnarr
2022 MAF traded to Minnesota from Chicago for a conditional 2nd, turns into a 1st if Minny reaches the WCF and MAF wins 4 games in each round)
2022 Petr Mrazek traded from Toronto along with a 1st round pick (#25) to Chicago for a 2nd
2022 Alexander Georgiev traded from NYR to Colorado for two 3rds and and a 5th
2022 Ville Husso traded from St. Louis to Detroit for a 3rd
2022 Adin Hill traded from SJS to Las Vegas for a 4th

Again, we're seeing mostly 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th round picks being moved. Very few starters are moving though.

Some examples from this season:

2023 Keith Kinkaid traded from Boston to Colorado for Shane Bowers
2023 Johnathon Quick traded to CBJ along with a conditional 1st and a 3rd from the Kings for Joonas Korpisalo and Vladislav Gavrikov
2023 Johnathon Quick flipped to Las Vegas for Michael Hutchinson
2023 Mackenzie Blackwood traded to SJS from NJD for a 6th

So again the returns for goaltenders isn't great, but very few star goaltenders get moved. It is hard to determine the right cost for Hart as a result, but I think calling for multiple firsts or star players isn't very realistic. The same goes for Saros or whatever puckstopper you want to target. The goaltender market has rarely included 1sts and in the past 10 years they are usually conditional. In some cases a 1st was included to get RID of a goaltender. Oiler fans take note of this for considering what it would take to move Jack Campbell.

Not much out there right now for goaltending. Some veteran backups but you probably going to overpay for them.

 

[Macheteops]

I mean the Nurse hate is overboard for sure. But a very good defenseman? I wouldn't say that either. If he's your 3rd or 4th best defender and 2nd best offensive guy he's fine. But he's not very good.

He's been the Oilers best D since the coaching change in my opinion. Small sample. Ekholm and Bouchard both have been good too. I'm a Nurse hater and with his current play he's almost worth his 9.25m. We'll see how long he keeps it up

 

[Fishy McScales]

Nah it's not. The value of something is whatever someone is willing to pay for it, not some arbitrary value that you assign.

That's like saying what would you sell your house for when the one down the street sold for 500k and you say 1 million.

Just because you don't want to move unless someone gives you an absurd offer does not mean that your house is worth 1 million dollars.

What you would use for a comparable is a house similar to yours that recently sold.

In that case your home is worth 500k, not the million dollars that it would take for you to move that no one would ever pay.

When goalies are moved, their return is usually not that great.

But the point was that the houses aren't comparable.

If the house down the street went for 500k but you have an extra floor, nice garden and a swimming pool you'll think you should be getting more than that, but maybe it's not the kind of money people in the area could generally afford so you remain (happily) in your house.

Sure, we will never know the exact value until someone forks up, but in your argument we can never know the value of superstars because no one is going to be able to pay a price high enough to acquire them via trade.

That may be true in a literal sense but it is an uninteresting conclusion; they are too expensive or outright untouchable which is why they don't show up in the data.

 

[Fishy McScales]

He's been the Oilers best D since the coaching change in my opinion. Small sample. Ekholm and Bouchard both have been good too. I'm a Nurse hater and with his current play he's almost worth his 9.25m. We'll see how long he keeps it up

That poor start by the Oilers gave a lot of other fan bases traction on their hot takes. It's confirmation bias.

The Oilers' turnaround makes them double down. It's cope.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Ah, the Carolina strategy to win a cup. Oiler fans know this one all too well.

That strategy only works if the other team has a braindead defensman willing to slam the player right into the goalie.

 

[TFHockey]

I realize I didn't quote every goalie trade made in the last 10 years. I think my original thread post was long enough. I mean, yes, there have been the occasional trade that was an overpayment. These to me seem to be outliers. For every Anderson trade there are 10 or more trades for future considerations. Maybe I should have posted those too along with the Schneider and Anderson trades to fuller illustrate my point.

Goalies don't land much in trades, but starting goaltenders don't get moved a whole lot.