Value of: Goaltender to EDM

[TFHockey]

Yes you keep saying they will be underwhelmed by the offers in here. But what offers are you seeing cause i didnt see any. All i’m saying. Maybe i missed them. Keep reading returns are low on goalies and they are.

In the Saros to Edmonton thread:

2 1sts broberg, lavoie,bourgualt and a 2nd

Keep Broberg, Lavoie and Bourgault and throw another 1st in. These 3 might hardly sniff the NHL in the future.

Even the top goalie trade references in this thread, Schneider to NJD for the 9th overall, which happened in 2013 and is the highest trade return for a goaltender I can find over the past 10 years and which has never been equaled isn't as high as these guys are quoting for Saros.

Here's a gem from 2022 Hart to Edmonton thread:

I'm not trading Carter Hart to EDM unless Draisitil or McDavid is involved.

 

[Double Dion]

This is kind of my point. Based on the trades we've seen in the past Wolf would go for around a 2nd. Markstrom would probably go for a 3rd? 3rd and a 5th? Goalies get undervalued in this league, possibly because so few of them are consistently good. Those that are don't get moved for the most part.



I think the Hart proposals on here reflect how much the Philly fans love him and how consistently good he is. That being said if we look at all of the trades over the past 8-10 years he wouldn't return what the fans are expecting or hoping for. Ditto Saros.

I think you're very wrong on what a young starter goes for. We've only really seen Schneider traded in that category. He went for a top 10 pick. Wolf would not go for a 2nd. There would be 31 GMs happy to trade a 1st for him. Look at what an elite goalie does. The Islanders are a bottom 5 roster. Their goalie is top 3. They're in the playoffs. The Oilers are a top 5 roster. Their goalie is bottom 3. They aren't in the playoffs.

In the Saros to Edmonton thread:




Even the top goalie trade references in this thread, Schneider to NJD for the 9th overall, which happened in 2013 and is the highest trade return for a goaltender I can find over the past 10 years and which has never been equaled isn't as high as these guys are quoting for Saros.

Here's a gem from 2022 Hart to Edmonton thread:

Do you not think Saros compares more to Schneider than any other name you've quoted? I sure do.

 

[TFHockey]

I think you're very wrong on what a young starter goes for. We've only really seen Schneider traded in that category. He went for a top 10 pick. Wolf would not go for a 2nd. There would be 31 GMs happy to trade a 1st for him. Look at what an elite goalie does. The Islanders are a bottom 5 roster. Their goalie is top 3. They're in the playoffs. The Oilers are a top 5 roster. Their goalie is bottom 3. They aren't in the playoffs.


Do you not think Saros compares more to Schneider than any other name you've quoted? I sure do.

Uh, how am I wrong? Look at what young unproven goalies go for. Not much. I agree they SHOULD go for more, but they don't.

The quotes for Saros are absurd and way more than even the top return that we've seen for a goalie in this league. It's fan fiction, not like ACTUAL trades. Hell, how much more evidence can I provide?

 

[Frank Drebin]

There would be 31 GMs happy to trade a 1st for him.

Maybe half dozen.

Hes not worth a top 10 pick, and elite teams have more pressing needs than to build their goaltending pipeline.

 

[ElPrimeTime]

How do we convince Fleury to waive his NMC to come to Edmonton? I am super biased being a big fan of his, but I feel he is the perfect goalie to bring on. Veteran goalie with massive playoff experience. Easily can be a 1A or 1B and you ride the hot hand in the playoffs. Saw a post by CapFriendly that the Oilers will have $2.78M in in deadline space so he could be acquired without having to deal Soup.

Minny fans, if y'all are out of the contention AND Fleury is willing to waive, what would you want as the return with 50% retention?

 

[Double Dion]

Uh, how am I wrong? Look at what young unproven goalies go for. Not much. I agree they SHOULD go for more, but they don't.

The quotes for Saros are absurd and way more than even the top return that we've seen for a goalie in this league. It's fan fiction, not like ACTUAL trades. Hell, how much more evidence can I provide?

Saros is worth in a vacuum a 1st and good prospect from Edmonton. He's worth what Schneider went for. You guys won't have a top 10 pick to trade.

You don't see young goalies like Wolf traded. Like ever. Wolf is the piece on our roster I'd want the most for. More than Zary, more than Andersson, more than Honzek, more than Coronato.

I think you're misreading the market badly here. I don't disgaree with you that middling starters and 1B goalies don't return much. Especially in prior seasons. But look at the landscape. There have never been so many high end rosters and emerging teams in desperate need for a goalie. Just off the top of my head:

Toronto
Edmonton
Carolina
LA
New Jersey

Emerging teams like
Buffalo
Detroit
Ottawa

I mean there's not enough good goalies now. The market has changed.

Maybe half dozen.

Hes not worth a top 10 pick, and elite teams have more pressing needs than to build their goaltending pipeline.

I wouldn't even trade him for a top 10 pick. He's better than Honzek who we just drafted near there. If you think only half a dozen GMs want him you're out to lunch badly. He's the best goalie prospect the league has seen since Vasy.

 

[Frank Drebin]

I wouldn't even trade him for a top 10 pick. He's better than Honzek who we just drafted near there. If you think only half a dozen GMs want him you're out to lunch badly. He's the best goalie prospect the league has seen since Vasy.

31 GMs want him, about a half dozen would pay a first for him.

I'm not doubting hes a good prospect, but goalies (especially goalie prospects) never have the value people think they do.

 

[Double Dion]

31 GMs want him, about a half dozen would pay a first for him.

I'm not doubting hes a good prospect, but goalies never have the value people think they do.

That keeps getting repeated. It's because elite young goalies are so rarely traded. Schneider was the last one. He went for a top 10 pick. Teams don't trade guys like Vasy, Saros, Sorokin, Shesterkin ect. They sign them and build their franchise around them.

 

[Frank Drebin]

That keeps getting repeated. It's because elite young goalies are so rarely traded. Schneider was the last one. He went for a top 10 pick. Teams don't trade guys like Vasy, Saros, Sorokin, Shesterkin ect. They sign them and build their franchise around them.

Schneider had 100 games and elite stats when he was traded. He was a 27 year old goalie in his prime. His value was about as high as you could expect.

 

[SupremeTeam16]

Saros is worth in a vacuum a 1st and good prospect from Edmonton. He's worth what Schneider went for. You guys won't have a top 10 pick to trade.

You don't see young goalies like Wolf traded. Like ever. Wolf is the piece on our roster I'd want the most for. More than Zary, more than Andersson, more than Honzek, more than Coronato.

I think you're misreading the market badly here. I don't disgaree with you that middling starters and 1B goalies don't return much. Especially in prior seasons. But look at the landscape. There have never been so many high end rosters and emerging teams in desperate need for a goalie. Just off the top of my head:

Toronto
Edmonton
Carolina
LA
New Jersey

Emerging teams like
Buffalo
Detroit
Ottawa

I mean there's not enough good goalies now. The market has changed.


I wouldn't even trade him for a top 10 pick. He's better than Honzek who we just drafted near there. If you think only half a dozen GMs want him you're out to lunch badly. He's the best goalie prospect the league has seen since Vasy.

I’d agree Wolf is a terrific young goalie prospect but he’s not head and shoulders above guys like Askarov, Wallstedt. But he’s just that, a prospect and given the volatility of the position gm’s don’t usually give up the kind of value you’d want because there’s just too much risk. The kid has a sub .900 in 5 career NHL games, anyone who might be interested is going to want to see a better, longer track record in the league than that before forking out for him.

As for Saros, I agree with you that there should be quite a bit of interest around the league if he becomes available but again it’s a big gamble and as we’ve seen recently teams are apprehensive about spending a lot of assets and cap space on elite goalies, the preference seems to be heading towards spending assets and cap to improve your team which in most cases will improve the goaltending and we’re also seeing a preference for tandems as it mitigates risk in terms of injury and poor play if a goalie is struggling.

Look at the cup winners of the last 10 years with the exception of Vasy it’s all a bunch of average goalies who found themselves in the right place at the right time behind strong teams, guys like Murray, Binnington, Holtby, Kuemper, Hill, Crawford.

 

[Double Dion]

I’d agree Wolf is a terrific young goalie prospect but he’s not head and shoulders above guys like Askarov, Wallstedt. But he’s just that, a prospect and given the volatility of the position gm’s don’t usually give up the kind of value you’d want because there’s just too much risk. The kid has a sub .900 in 5 career NHL games, anyone who might be interested is going to want to see a better, longer track record in the league than that before forking out for him.

As for Saros, I agree with you that there should be quite a bit of interest around the league if he becomes available but again it’s a big gamble and as we’ve seen recently teams are apprehensive about spending a lot of assets and cap space on elite goalies, the preference seems to be heading towards spending assets and cap to improve your team which in most cases will improve the goaltending and we’re also seeing a preference for tandems as it mitigates risk in terms of injury and poor play if a goalie is struggling.

Look at the cup winners of the last 10 years with the exception of Vasy it’s all a bunch of average goalies who found themselves in the right place at the right time behind strong teams, guys like Murray, Binnington, Holtby, Kuemper, Hill, Crawford.

I mean look at the numbers on Wolf. He's absolutely head and shoulder above every goalie who has played in the AHL ever. The only one close is Vasy. Wallstedt and Askarov aren't even in the conversation, we've talking .015 to .02 save percentage difference with Wolf also facing more high danger chances.

 

[Viqsi]

goalies (especially goalie prospects) never have the value people think they do.

This premise is survivorship bias in action. We only see the market values of the goaltenders that actually get traded and presume that says something about goaltender market value in general, without considering the possiblity that other goaltenders for which folks quote very high prices do in fact have that value because the cost is so high nobody is ever willing to pay it.

 

[TFHockey]

This premise is survivorship bias in action. We only see the market values of the goaltenders that actually get traded and presume that says something about goaltender market value in general, without considering the possiblity that other goaltenders for which folks quote very high prices do in fact have that value because the cost is so high nobody is ever willing to pay it.

Absence of evidence is not proof of your theory. Of *course* all we have are the actual trades that are made. You can't state because a trade didn't happen we know the trade value of a player, or even a group players. All we have are the actual real trades that have happened.

Based on actual evidence, and I pointed out how few of these guys were starters, but that SOME starters did get dealt, we know that the value of goaltenders in trades isn't high. Certainly nowhere near as high as people imagine on these boards. A first and a great prospect for a goalie who has great numbers in the AHL but showed 3.46 GA and a .893 SV% in 5 NHL games this year? That isn't realistic.

Lastly, and I want to make this clear, I think the real trade value of goalies SHOULD be higher because having poor goaltending sinks otherwise good teams. This just isn't the case in real life.

 

[Draiskull]

Go look at Nurse term + $$$$$

If Oil not severely cap constrained, sure, why do it.

Even now, gotta think 2x +

Howev, if it is ultimately determined that cap flexibility is an inescapable need
If no other options, then....

Nurse at his current performance is worth every penny and wouldn't trade him straight up for Trouba.
Lol at oilers retaining 50% for cap flexibility

 

[SupremeTeam16]

This premise is survivorship bias in action. We only see the market values of the goaltenders that actually get traded and presume that says something about goaltender market value in general, without considering the possiblity that other goaltenders for which folks quote very high prices do in fact have that value because the cost is so high nobody is ever willing to pay it.

But they don’t have that value because the value of something is whatever the market is willing to pay for it. Anything else is just theoretical.

I mean what if I told you that I have a 2003 Chevy Cavalier for sale and it’s got a million dollars in the trunk so I value the car at one million and five hundred dollars. But you can’t look in the trunk until you pay me for the car.

Anything can be valued at any price theoretically but all that matters is what the market is willing to pay.

 

[Captain Mountain]

This is kind of my point. Based on the trades we've seen in the past Wolf would go for around a 2nd. Markstrom would probably go for a 3rd? 3rd and a 5th? Goalies get undervalued in this league, possibly because so few of them are consistently good. Those that are don't get moved for the most part.



I think the Hart proposals on here reflect how much the Philly fans love him and how consistently good he is. That being said if we look at all of the trades over the past 8-10 years he wouldn't return what the fans are expecting or hoping for. Ditto Saros.

I think you're downplaying the availability factor. Goalies typically get moved for less because teams are incentivized to move them. Hart (and Wolf+Saros) proposals on here may be less about how much the fans of the teams love the player and more about there not being any pressure or reason to shop or move them. None of the goalie trades you cited are of goalies in the Saros/Hart/Wolf/etc. pedigree or upside category. They're often times average to bad goalies or goalies with not much perceived upside. Wolf wouldn't get a 2nd because goalies like Wolf don't really get traded in those kinds of trades.

The other thing is that Goalie trades are also cheaper in the offseason than mid-season, likely because there's more availability then. Looking at recent in-season goalie trades, it feels like if you want even a capable back-up/ 1B guy its going to cost at least a 3rd.

 

[McSuper]

Doesn't Ekholm make 6M? And why/how would they retain 4.6M on him when 50% is the max? And what does Nurse have to do with Ekholm?

I am hard on Nurse and wanted to trade him but he been hands down our best D since he took a puck to his skull. A beast at both ends of the ice. Short sample size but I would trade Nurse period right now. We need to know if this is the Nurse we are going to be getting LT or if it is just a hot run.

 

[Frank Drebin]

This premise is survivorship bias in action. We only see the market values of the goaltenders that actually get traded and presume that says something about goaltender market value in general, without considering the possiblity that other goaltenders for which folks quote very high prices do in fact have that value because the cost is so high nobody is ever willing to pay it.

Nah it's not. The value of something is whatever someone is willing to pay for it, not some arbitrary value that you assign.

That's like saying what would you sell your house for when the one down the street sold for 500k and you say 1 million.

Just because you don't want to move unless someone gives you an absurd offer does not mean that your house is worth 1 million dollars.

What you would use for a comparable is a house similar to yours that recently sold.

In that case your home is worth 500k, not the million dollars that it would take for you to move that no one would ever pay.

When goalies are moved, their return is usually not that great.

 

[ManofSteel55]

Huge work there. But what for. Whats the offer for Hart to Edm?
A 6th like Blackwood?
a 4th like Hill?
A 3rd like Dubnyk?

I don't think we could compare a Hart trade to any of those other guys, as Hart is Philly's goalie of the future, and the other three were expendable pieces by their respective franchises. We can't pry goalies who are probably unavailable to guys that were trade fodder or extra parts. Edmonton will need to wait for another teams 3rd guy to come available, and hope that guy is as good as Hill or Blackwood have been for their teams, or wait out a team like Montreal for Jake Allen (probably not possible due to the extra year on his contract).

Edmonton has their "goalie of the future" in Stuart Skinner (or at least they think they do), so if Edmonton is trading for a goalie, it's likely for a veteran who can take over if Skinner falters, and can take more games if needed. That's the kind of goalie that will be the 2nd/3rd/4th round pick type of cost, but its hard to know who exactly that goalie might be right now. Nobody seems to be in a rush to dump their extra goalie.

And nobody is taking Campbell, so it has to be creative with the cap to get a deal done.

Ilya Samsonov is available

Samsonov for Campbell, no adds, no take backs.

 

[ChrisProngersEYE]

Would you guys want Kuemper back? I mean he is an amazing goalie but has been hung out to dry this year by the team in front of him. The Capitals are far from contenders and will not be needing a Kuemper level goalie as we can develop Hunter and Lindgren.

Has Rodrigue been given a whirl yet this year? If not why not? From what I understand he is amazing and may be at NHL level play. I don't get why he has not been given a try.

 

[bucks_oil]

Go look at Nurse term + $$$$$

If Oil not severely cap constrained, sure, why do it.

Even now, gotta think 2x +

Howev, if it is ultimately determined that cap flexibility is an inescapable need
If no other options, then....

Bern seriously.... are you on drugs? Is an intervention required?

So the Oilers cut Nurse's salary to $4.61M and then trade this player who:
* Is 28 years old and will be in his prime for another 4 years
* Scored 43 points last year, good for 25th
* Scored 25 EV points last year, good for 15th
* Scored 105 EVP over the last 4 years, good for 15th
* Has been a +79 over the last 4 years, good for 7th
* Plays 23-25 minutes a night, 16th overall in TOI over the last 4 years

And this guy to you... at $4.6M is still a cap dump to the point that we need to attach assets? W T F ????

And did you fail a logic test recently? The Oilers are going to RETAIN 50% on their (arguable) #2 or #3 defensman, ie they are going to SINK $4.6M into dead cap just to replace him with..... what exactly? What's the going rate for a lower end top pairing or high end 2nd pairing guy? How do we come out ahead on cap Bern?

 

[bucks_oil]

I think you're very wrong on what a young starter goes for. We've only really seen Schneider traded in that category. He went for a top 10 pick. Wolf would not go for a 2nd. There would be 31 GMs happy to trade a 1st for him. Look at what an elite goalie does. The Islanders are a bottom 5 roster. Their goalie is top 3. They're in the playoffs. The Oilers are a top 5 roster. Their goalie is bottom 3. They aren't in the playoffs.


Do you not think Saros compares more to Schneider than any other name you've quoted? I sure do.

I do think Saros is comparable to Schneider, actually he's more valuable IMO.

But do you not see the difference in what TFF quoted? 2 1sts, Lavoie, Broberg, Bourgault and a 2nd.... All of those drafted with 1st btw, yes, some have lost value, but how much? Are we not still looking at the equivalent of 3-4 1sts? Is that equal to what Schneider got?

 

[bernmeister]

Nurse at his current performance is worth every penny and wouldn't trade him straight up for Trouba.
Lol at oilers retaining 50% for cap flexibility

Trouba is not on the table for Nurse, I never said that

lol yourself
either you need the cap flexibility or you don't

As it stands now, you live in the bed you made, you have no signif room for any cap maneuverability and few options to create cap space
that may yet work for you, we'll see

but meanwhile McDrai clock is ticking....

 

[Double Dion]

I am hard on Nurse and wanted to trade him but he been hands down our best D since he took a puck to his skull. A beast at both ends of the ice. Short sample size but I would trade Nurse period right now. We need to know if this is the Nurse we are going to be getting LT or if it is just a hot run.

He has been better lately. I just think babysitting Bouchard is such a tough assignment for a partner. Ekholm can do it, Nurse can't. McDavid has also been playing above average defensively lately. As a Flames fan I dislike that. If he becomes a 2 way C and you get another D and goaltending has a decent run you guys could win with that.

I do think Saros is comparable to Schneider, actually he's more valuable IMO.

But do you not see the difference in what TFF quoted? 2 1sts, Lavoie, Broberg, Bourgault and a 2nd.... All of those drafted with 1st btw, yes, some have lost value, but how much? Are we not still looking at the equivalent of 3-4 1sts? Is that equal to what Schneider got?

Yes that's too much. As I said, I think a Edmonton 1st and a prospect is the right price for Saros in a vacuum. I'm just doubtful Nashville wants to move him and think you'd have to give extra to convince them.

 

[bernmeister]

Nah it's not. The value of something is whatever someone is willing to pay for it, not some arbitrary value that you assign.

That's like saying what would you sell your house for when the one down the street sold for 500k and you say 1 million.

Just because you don't want to move unless someone gives you an absurd offer does not mean that your house is worth 1 million dollars.

What you would use for a comparable is a house similar to yours that recently sold.

In that case your home is worth 500k, not the million dollars that it would take for you to move that no one would ever pay.

When goalies are moved, their return is usually not that great.

yes, there is supply and demand
but
all laws, including economic ones, are subservient to the conditions that create and maintain them

As that applies here, Shesty, for example, does not go anywhere unless too much to refuse = either Drai or Byfeld as core piece, and even then, that is only if Rs wanna gamble that Garand can step in like next year-ish.

In other words, the supply and demand of which Gs get put up is predicated on certain underlying facts.

On the surface, you are superficially right
But in a more meaningful sense, @Viqsi i is correct.

And I know abot this stuff, any ?s, convo me