Value of: Goaltender to EDM

[ChaoticOrange]

you are stuck w/Soup for now -- simply just a little too much $$$ and term to move

If you are desperate for cap flexibility, eating Nurse at half and paying a suitor to take on that term is possible.
But not soup.

As to an upgrade, not seeing who is readily available and at cheap cost.

nyr could offer Domingue, but if return too low -- which I get -- then he is worth more to us as injury insurance, even tho I personally believe Garand is not far from stepping in if the Martians kidnapped anybody.

you want Edmonton to trade Nurse, retained half for six years, get absolutely nothing back?

Are you drunk? Nurse at 4.6 would be worth a fortune.

 

[bernmeister]

Bern seriously.... are you on drugs? Is an intervention required?

So the Oilers cut Nurse's salary to $4.61M and then trade this player who:
* Is 28 years old and will be in his prime for another 4 years
* Scored 43 points last year, good for 25th
* Scored 25 EV points last year, good for 15th
* Scored 105 EVP over the last 4 years, good for 15th
* Has been a +79 over the last 4 years, good for 7th
* Plays 23-25 minutes a night, 16th overall in TOI over the last 4 years

And this guy to you... at $4.6M is still a cap dump to the point that we need to attach assets? W T F ????

And did you fail a logic test recently? The Oilers are going to RETAIN 50% on their (arguable) #2 or #3 defensman, ie they are going to SINK $4.6M into dead cap just to replace him with..... what exactly? What's the going rate for a lower end top pairing or high end 2nd pairing guy? How do we come out ahead on cap Bern?

nice of you to cherry pick stats
per cf, he is not a ufa until '29-30 season
we are now 23-24, that is 7 seasons away

yeah, he is prime-ish now, but a guy entering prime is like Sanderson, 8 seasons beg. next yr locked in at 9per just as he approaches 30

If you are lucky, you will only have 3-4 years where the wheels fall off, etc
and who is gonna take a 9.25 cap dump then?

You pay now to get flexbiity not only now, but later

And don't shoot the messenger.
In a vacuum you might keep Nurse, but who else can actually be moved?

You're gonna eat soup w'a buy out
that will help slightly
what else Oil can do to bolster team remains to be seen

 

[bernmeister]

you want Edmonton to trade Nurse, retained half for six years, get absolutely nothing back?

Are you drunk? Nurse at 4.6 would be worth a fortune.

bold = short term a yr or 2 yeah ---- but not thru 29-30

don't blame me b'c YOU didn't think ahead

I get Oil don't want to be exploited now, but EDM reaping what it sowed

what other options do you have to move salary?
Again, yes, you don't have to .... but then accept the consequences

 

[Frank Drebin]

yes, there is supply and demand
but
all laws, including economic ones, are subservient to the conditions that create and maintain them

As that applies here, Shesty, for example, does not go anywhere unless too much to refuse = either Drai or Byfeld as core piece, and even then, that is only if Rs wanna gamble that Garand can step in like next year-ish.

In other words, the supply and demand of which Gs get put up is predicated on certain underlying facts.

On the surface, you are superficially right
But in a more meaningful sense, @Viqsi i is correct.

And I know abot this stuff, any ?s, convo me

Shesty in the aforementioned example, is your home. Ie not for sale unless for an absurd overpayment.

If shesty asks for a trade, it would be very similar to you getting a promotion across the country where now you have to sell your home. In that case, the value of your home would now reflect the real world value of 500k, not the imaginary value of 1m that you assigned to it when you didn't want to move.

 

[Bizz]

The Sharks have zero reason or desire to take on Campbell's horrendous contract for just a single late 1st in a shallow draft year.

 

[ChaoticOrange]

bold = short term a yr or 2 yeah ---- but not thru 29-30

don't blame me b'c YOU didn't think ahead

I get Oil don't want to be exploited now, but EDM reaping what it sowed

what other options do you have to move salary?
Again, yes, you don't have to .... but then accept the consequences

a hell of a lot others?

That's like saying the Rangers would need to eat half on Trouba and get nothing back to create some cap space. Nobody in their right mind is making a move like that.

I get that East fans don't understand it well, but Nurse is a very good defenceman. He's overpaid, to be sure, but he's good.

 

[Bizz]

you want Edmonton to trade Nurse, retained half for six years, get absolutely nothing back?

Nurse is worth less than nothing. He literally has negative value.

 

[ChaoticOrange]

Nurse is worth less than nothing. He literally has negative value.

at 9.25, sure. at 4.6 million? Edmonton would have a line around the block.

 

[Strangle]

I think Oilers fans would be thrilled if somehow they could shoehorn Jack Campbell into a deal for another goalie although I am not sure that is at all possible.

I think Philly fans would demand a big return for a guy like Carter Hart glossing over the fact that goalies don't tend to land a lot in trades.

Historically speaking:

2006 Dwayne Roloson traded from Minnesota to Edmonton for a 1st and a 3rd (an expensive rental at the time, Roloson resigned with the team though)
2008 Cristobal Huet traded from Montreal to Washington for a 2nd (Huet takes over as starter for the Caps)
2011 Craig Anderson traded from Colorado to Ottawa for goaltender Brian Elliott
2014 Roberto Luongo traded from Vancouver to Florida along with Steven Anthony for Jacob Markstrom and Shawn Matthias
2015 Devan Dubnyk traded from Arizona to Minnesota for a 3rd (Dubnyk was trying to salvage his career)
2018 Darcy Kuemper traded from L.A. to Arizona for Tobias Reider and Scott Wedgewood (Kuemper was a back up who looked ready to be a starter)
2020 Jack Campbell traded from L.A. to Toronto along with Kyle Clifford for two 3rds. Campbell was a back up with limited games in the NHL
2020 Robin Lehner traded from Chicago to Las Vegas for a 2nd and two mid tier prospects (Demin and Subban)

Typically the goalies that got moved were for 2nd, 3rd or 4th round picks. Not a lot in terms of return.

More recently *trades for only future considerations ignored, and there were quite a few!

2022 Scott Wedgewood traded from Arizona to Dallas for a 4th
2022 Kappo Kahkonen traded from Minnesota to San Jose for Defenseman Jacob Middleton
2022 Andrew Hammond traded from Montreal for Nate Schnarr
2022 MAF traded to Minnesota from Chicago for a conditional 2nd, turns into a 1st if Minny reaches the WCF and MAF wins 4 games in each round)
2022 Petr Mrazek traded from Toronto along with a 1st round pick (#25) to Chicago for a 2nd
2022 Alexander Georgiev traded from NYR to Colorado for two 3rds and and a 5th
2022 Ville Husso traded from St. Louis to Detroit for a 3rd
2022 Adin Hill traded from SJS to Las Vegas for a 4th

Again, we're seeing mostly 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th round picks being moved. Very few starters are moving though.

Some examples from this season:

2023 Keith Kinkaid traded from Boston to Colorado for Shane Bowers
2023 Johnathon Quick traded to CBJ along with a conditional 1st and a 3rd from the Kings for Joonas Korpisalo and Vladislav Gavrikov
2023 Johnathon Quick flipped to Las Vegas for Michael Hutchinson
2023 Mackenzie Blackwood traded to SJS from NJD for a 6th

So again the returns for goaltenders isn't great, but very few star goaltenders get moved. It is hard to determine the right cost for Hart as a result, but I think calling for multiple firsts or star players isn't very realistic. The same goes for Saros or whatever puckstopper you want to target. The goaltender market has rarely included 1sts and in the past 10 years they are usually conditional. In some cases a 1st was included to get RID of a goaltender. Oiler fans take note of this for considering what it would take to move Jack Campbell.

The oilers really f***ed up with that salary for Campbell.

If he made $2m-ish a year I’d say the leafs and oilers could swap Samsonov for Campbell, but no one is going to take Campbell for anything at $5.5m

 

[bernmeister]

Shesty in the aforementioned example, is your home. Ie not for sale unless for an absurd overpayment.

If shesty asks for a trade, it would be very similar to you getting a promotion across the country where now you have to sell your home. In that case, the value of your home would now reflect the real world value of 500k, not the imaginary value of 1m that you assigned to it when you didn't want to move.

Setting aside to not nit-pick this to nth degree, your predicate is "iF Shesty..."

Does Shesty have any limited or full nmc/ntc?

so no

 

[Frank Drebin]

Setting aside to not nit-pick this to nth degree, your predicate is "iF Shesty..."

Does Shesty have any limited or full nmc/ntc?

so no

Shesty is "not for sale"

Debating his value is worthless

 

[f7ben]

How do we convince Fleury to waive his NMC to come to Edmonton? I am super biased being a big fan of his, but I feel he is the perfect goalie to bring on. Veteran goalie with massive playoff experience. Easily can be a 1A or 1B and you ride the hot hand in the playoffs. Saw a post by CapFriendly that the Oilers will have $2.78M in in deadline space so he could be acquired without having to deal Soup.

Minny fans, if y'all are out of the contention AND Fleury is willing to waive, what would you want as the return with 50% retention?

I’d be willing to support the wild sending Gus to EDM. He’s the far better tender and has term and a reasonable cap hit. Would be willing to take back some cap and it would require a 2024 1st and 3rd

 

[bernmeister]

a hell of a lot others?

That's like saying the Rangers would need to eat half on Trouba and get nothing back to create some cap space. Nobody in their right mind is making a move like that.

I get that East fans don't understand it well, but Nurse is a very good defenceman. He's overpaid, to be sure, but he's good.

underline: feel free to elaborate, I'll check in tom.

bold: That is not a match b'c Rs do not need cap space that desperately, and have an escape valve on most of Trouba's 8m if they did

yes IF the Rs were that desperate now and had no safety valves,, then yes your illustration would be accurate but it is not the case

italic
issue is not how good Nurse is/is not.
It is if Oil need cap desperately and have other options

consider Leafs
we see semi regular mention of moving Marner to repurpose cap
similar

 

[Viqsi]

But they don’t have that value because the value of something is whatever the market is willing to pay for it. Anything else is just theoretical.

I mean what if I told you that I have a 2003 Chevy Cavalier for sale and it’s got a million dollars in the trunk so I value the car at one million and five hundred dollars. But you can’t look in the trunk until you pay me for the car.

Anything can be valued at any price theoretically but all that matters is what the market is willing to pay.

And what the owner is willing to sell for. That's fundamentally why this whole notion of "all these goaltenders sold for low, therefore give us Saros for X Y and Z" is garbage.

* * *​

Nah it's not. The value of something is whatever someone is willing to pay for it, not some arbitrary value that you assign.

That's like saying what would you sell your house for when the one down the street sold for 500k and you say 1 million.

Just because you don't want to move unless someone gives you an absurd offer does not mean that your house is worth 1 million dollars.

The OP was explicitly asserting otherwise. "All these goalies move for this, therefore Saros should be available for..." No. The seller's opinion matters too, because unless they agree, it doesn't matter how "reasonable in the context of the market" your offer is, y'all ain't gonna buy.

 

[Viqsi]

Shesty is "not for sale"

Debating his value is worthless

And yet people keep presuming Saros is. Maybe they're assuming Askarov is more ready than he is. Maybe it's because Nashville isn't New York and so folks don't bother to actually pay attention. Maybe they're so blinded by greed that they pay attention to the one Preds fan who keeps making up trade values and ignoring the dozens of others who keep saying that guy is completely out to lunch. Who knows. The point being is that the sales circumstances are very similar.

 

[bernmeister]

Shesty is "not for sale"

Debating his value is worthless

Not worthless.
But it is a futile exercise unless someone wants to pay top top dollar for a vezina quality netminder at an affordable #, possibly at half

In other words, he is conditionally not for sale, unless the offer is too good to consider

Like I said, all laws are subservient to the conditions that create and maintain them

 

[PettersonHughes]

Probably a couple of mid or late-round picks, and depending if teams are selling there are probably guys available (one of the Habs goalies/ Gibson/ Schmid if Daws has supplanted him/ one of the Blues goalies if they remain outside the playoffs). In fact I wonder if Mrazek could be a riser on the right team.

 

[ElPrimeTime]

I’d be willing to support the wild sending Gus to EDM. He’s the far better tender and has term and a reasonable cap hit. Would be willing to take back some cap and it would require a 2024 1st and 3rd

I'd still prefer Fleury. Gus had a great season last year and a had solid 1st playoff outing, but the playoff experience from Fleury is huge. Plus he's shown the ability to either start in the playoffs or backup and come in to win games. He'd undoubtedly will cost less than a 1st and 3rd.

 

[Double Dion]

a hell of a lot others?

That's like saying the Rangers would need to eat half on Trouba and get nothing back to create some cap space. Nobody in their right mind is making a move like that.

I get that East fans don't understand it well, but Nurse is a very good defenceman. He's overpaid, to be sure, but he's good.

I mean the Nurse hate is overboard for sure. But a very good defenseman? I wouldn't say that either. If he's your 3rd or 4th best defender and 2nd best offensive guy he's fine. But he's not very good.

 

[Guttersniped]

In the Saros to Edmonton thread:

Even the top goalie trade references in this thread, Schneider to NJD for the 9th overall, which happened in 2013 and is the highest trade return for a goaltender I can find over the past 10 years and which has never been equaled isn't as high as these guys are quoting for Saros.

There was also this:

Ironically this trade was also made by Lamoriello. (It’s for less obviously but you haven’t mentioned it unless I missed it.)

 

[DingDongCharlie]

you are stuck w/Soup for now -- simply just a little too much $$$ and term to move

If you are desperate for cap flexibility, eating Nurse at half and paying a suitor to take on that term is possible.
But not soup.

As to an upgrade, not seeing who is readily available and at cheap cost.

nyr could offer Domingue, but if return too low -- which I get -- then he is worth more to us as injury insurance, even tho I personally believe Garand is not far from stepping in if the Martians kidnapped anybody.

This is bonkers, even for you.

 

[DingDongCharlie]

Go look at Nurse term + $$$$$

If Oil not severely cap constrained, sure, why do it.

Even now, gotta think 2x +

Howev, if it is ultimately determined that cap flexibility is an inescapable need
If no other options, then....

Yeah retaining over 4 1/2 million for more than half a decade while moving out one of our better D isn’t how a team creates cap flexibility.

 

[Captain Mountain]

Absence of evidence is not proof of your theory. Of *course* all we have are the actual trades that are made. You can't state because a trade didn't happen we know the trade value of a player, or even a group players. All we have are the actual real trades that have happened.

Based on actual evidence, and I pointed out how few of these guys were starters, but that SOME starters did get dealt, we know that the value of goaltenders in trades isn't high. Certainly nowhere near as high as people imagine on these boards. A first and a great prospect for a goalie who has great numbers in the AHL but showed 3.46 GA and a .893 SV% in 5 NHL games this year? That isn't realistic.

Lastly, and I want to make this clear, I think the real trade value of goalies SHOULD be higher because having poor goaltending sinks otherwise good teams. This just isn't the case in real life.

That doesn't mean that its not valid, nor does it mean its not a valid critique of your theory.

Seriously look at your list. Or a complete list:

1. Guys that are young, unproven goalies with high pedigree don't really move much.
2. Guys that fit Hart's MO go for a lot (although its been many years since we've seen a move like that).
3. You're missing 2016 - Andersen, 2015 - Jones, Miller, Schnieder, Varlamov, etc. (or even the Vegas expansion draft considerations) for higher end goalie moves.
4. Goalie value, especially for ones playing well is greater in the middle of season than in the offseason.
5. There was pressure to move the best goalies that moved (losing control of the player, cap considerations, needing to choose between guys, etc.)

You can do a detailed meta-analysis of the goalie trade market atributing values to save percentages, salaray, games played, micro-stats etc. And you can correctly argue that goalies aren't as valuable in trades as players at other positions. But at the end of the day you still need to convince another party to make a trade and the more pressure there is on them to make a trade (looming free agency, cap constraints, etc.) the less you or other interested parties need to incentivise them to make a trade (and vice versa). Like, if Saros doesn't re-sign with Nashville in the offseason then maybe we can argue his value (I still think he'd will still be worth at least a 1st), but Nashville has no reason to trade him for that NOW, and an offer would need to convince them to make him available on another team's timeline. And I'm sure Hart wouldn't return a kings ransom if he takes a qualifying offer or goes to arbitration. But right now there's no reason for Philly to trade him.

This isn't even just a goalie thing, a hockey thing or even a sports thing. But its why when fans ask the value of players that aren't actually available in trades are worth then they get more outlandish answers.

 

[f7ben]

I'd still prefer Fleury. Gus had a great season last year and a had solid 1st playoff outing, but the playoff experience from Fleury is huge. Plus he's shown the ability to either start in the playoffs or backup and come in to win games. He'd undoubtedly will cost less than a 1st and 3rd.

Fleury won’t waive , no chance. Also he is pretty brutal in the playoffs. I’d love to move him and I don’t even care what he’s return but he isn’t waiving

 

[DingDongCharlie]

This premise is survivorship bias in action. We only see the market values of the goaltenders that actually get traded and presume that says something about goaltender market value in general, without considering the possiblity that other goaltenders for which folks quote very high prices do in fact have that value because the cost is so high nobody is ever willing to pay it.

This.

Many reference the Schneider example while forgetting Vancouver wasn’t even going to trade him but couldn’t find a suitable deal for Luongo as their hands were forced and he still pulled a top 10 pick