Management GM Pierre Dorion/Front Office Thread - Part IX [Mod Warning in post 1)

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

I'm assuming it will be a short leash going into the season. If the team sputters to start the year again, Andlaeur will not hesitate to replace both. I'm guessing there will be POHO in place before the season starts as well.

Exactly.

It's put up or shut up season for them and they're getting their chance. Wholesale changes are for later if the team sputters again.

 

[Do Make Say Think]

Exactly.

It's put up or shut up season for them and they're getting their chance. Wholesale changes are for later if the team sputters again.

Safe to assume Dorion is a deadman walking. The timing to replace him this summer/for next season never made much sense with how long the sale dragged.

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

Safe to assume Dorion is a deadman walking. The timing to replace him this summer/for next season never made much sense with how long the sale dragged.

Ya, I wager it'll come to pass next summer unless they blow it out of the water this year. I'm not surprised they're back this year.

 

[Tnuoc Alucard]

Tim Stutzle has yet to collect a dime on his new Salary.

90 points, 78 games is ~ 95 points in 82 games..

95 points was 14th in scoring last year. His 8.3 M is as of today ~ 51st in league.. by start of 2023/2024, will most likely be in the 60's.

By end of contract, if he remains a 95 +-5 point man, he will be in the top 20 in scoring and end with his contract worth being around 150th or so.

I am waiting for the lights to go on in the Stutzle house hold.

Ditto for Brady.

So you, if in either players place, would have refused to sign the contracts they agreed on?

You do know, that signing long term brings the security of a guaranteed contract, right?

Both players saw the trade off of agreeing to a longer term, with a lower AAV over a shorter term, bridge contract, to hopefully cash in under a better bargaining position….. when they both considered the possIbility of a carrerr ending injury happening at anytime?



You seem to be suggesting they’re both stupid, for leaving money on the table….. but I see them as weighing the pros and cons, and making the decision they saw as logical, and setting themselves up (and their futrue family ) for the future.

 

[Do Make Say Think]

Ya, I wager it'll come to pass next summer unless they blow it out of the water this year. I'm not surprised they're back this year.

True, if we somehow have an amazing season hard to think anyone gets replaced.

Hard to see us having that good of a season with how stacked our division is though.

 

[Tnuoc Alucard]

Safe to assume Dorion is a deadman walking. The timing to replace him this summer/for next season never made much sense with how long the sale dragged.

Yes, the clock is running out for both PD and DJS…. and the first 20 games will be make or break for DJS….. PD will fire him if the team starts the season, like the last two… and after that PD will be on the clock.

 

[Larionov]

Dorion will not be given the opportunity to hire another coach - not on his own anyway. I expect that Dorion will have himself a new boss fairly soon in the form of a President of Hockey Ops. It might be towards the end of the summer, but it's going to happen. This person will be the one responsible for hiring and firing the coach, and Dorion himself. He's going to have his wings clipped significantly. DJ will get the opportunity to sink or swim on his own as coach, but Dorion won't be the person deciding his fate...

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

True, if we somehow have an amazing season hard to think anyone gets replaced.

Hard to see us having that good of a season with how stacked our division is though.

Its hard for me to even assess our chances right now. Far too much in flux this summer for a team in such an important spot. Goaltending has to be solved. DeBrincat situation. Bottom 6 F and bottom 2 D needs to be settled, with some acquisitions being required there. We'll have to see what shakes out, but it seems we're in store for more big moves from Dorion this summer and the roster today is likely to look quite different come training camp.

Fingers crossed.

 

[BankStreetParade]

I'm assuming it will be a short leash going into the season. If the team sputters to start the year again, Andlaeur will not hesitate to replace both. I'm guessing there will be POHO in place before the season starts as well.

1000% it is. They have to start strong and they have to show improvement defensively. Anything less and it should result in DJ and his crew getting shown the door quickly.

 

[Do Make Say Think]

Its hard for me to even assess our chances right now. Far too much in flux this summer for a team in such an important spot. Goaltending has to be solved. DeBrincat situation. Bottom 6 F and bottom 2 D needs to be settled, with some acquisitions being required there. We'll have to see what shakes out, but it seems we're in store for more big moves from Dorion this summer and the roster today is likely to look quite different come training camp.

Fingers crossed.

Dorion really struggles with acquiring good proven veterans.

The only hope for making the playoffs is internal growth.

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

Dorion really struggles with acquiring good proven veterans.

The only hope for making the playoffs is internal growth.

I agree. His very poor summer of 2017 concerns me the most.

That was the last time he was trying to "add" to a team that was supposed to be competitive and we came to camp basically destined for failure because of his decisions that summer, the year prior, and even before then when Murray credited him with orchestrating the Phaneuf deal.

Goaltending is really concerning as well. He's yet to solve that effectively. Not that its all his fault with injuries, but Anderson is still the only consistent tender he's had during his tenure.

 

[Beech]

So you, if in either players place, would have refused to sign the contracts they agreed on?

You do know, that signing long term brings the security of a guaranteed contract, right?

Both players saw the trade off of agreeing to a longer term, with a lower AAV over a shorter term, bridge contract, to hopefully cash in under a better bargaining position….. when they both considered the possIbility of a carrerr ending injury happening at anytime?



You seem to be suggesting they’re both stupid, for leaving money on the table….. but I see them as weighing the pros and cons, and making the decision they saw as logical, and setting themselves up (and their futrue family ) for the future.

a repeat of a post I wrote 3 weeks or so ago.

1) Leon Draisaitl. A gold example of how not to sign a contract
2) Austin Mathews and Mitch Marner. Two gold examples of how to sign contracts

Right after ELC, it is idiotic to sign 8 x Y contracts unless you are a mid table player. Which, realistically will never happen. The team will never offer you one.

a) you sign a 3 year Debrincat contract in todays money (goal 8 M AAV): 6 M, 8 M, 10 M so that your qualifying is 10M. Now you negotiate an 8 x Y contract after you see the market and what you have accomplished.

b) you sign a 5 year contract at 10,9,8,7,6 .. still is 8 M AAV...but at 6 M end year, if you fail to reach an agreement on the follow up 8 x Y. It is easy for the team to trade you. You are young and can sign anywhere.

c) you sign an 8 x Y and the Y is high (Hello M Marner)..

Austin was brilliant, he combined b) and c) lots of money, short/intermediate term.

Leon...OOOOHHHH. left 2 M on the table.. will try to recoup it at 29 years old... If his contract had ended 2 seasons ago. He would today be on a new 8 x 12-13 M... EASILY..

why the bleep is it so hard for players to follow the formula?

 

[Pancakes Pancakes]

1000% it is. They have to start strong and they have to show improvement defensively. Anything less and it should result in DJ and his crew getting shown the door quickly.

Likely why Andlaeur is comfortable with the status quo for now, it's basically a win-win for him.

 

[AchtzehnBaby]

Dorion really struggles with acquiring good proven veterans.

The only hope for making the playoffs is internal growth.

Dorion doesn’t struggle, the Ottawa Senators struggle to get vets to come to the small city with big taxes, during a rebuild.

 

[BankStreetParade]

a repeat of a post I wrote 3 weeks or so ago.

1) Leon Draisaitl. A gold example of how not to sign a contract
2) Austin Mathews and Mitch Marner. Two gold examples of how to sign contracts

Right after ELC, it is idiotic to sign 8 x Y contracts unless you are a mid table player. Which, realistically will never happen. The team will never offer you one.

a) you sign a 3 year Debrincat contract in todays money (goal 8 M AAV): 6 M, 8 M, 10 M so that your qualifying is 10M. Now you negotiate an 8 x Y contract after you see the market and what you have accomplished.

b) you sign a 5 year contract at 10,9,8,7,6 .. still is 8 M AAV...but at 6 M end year, if you fail to reach an agreement on the follow up 8 x Y. It is easy for the team to trade you. You are young and can sign anywhere.

c) you sign an 8 x Y and the Y is high (Hello M Marner)..

Austin was brilliant, he combined b) and c) lots of money, short/intermediate term.

Leon...OOOOHHHH. left 2 M on the table.. will try to recoup it at 29 years old... If his contract had ended 2 seasons ago. He would today be on a new 8 x 12-13 M... EASILY..

why the bleep is it so hard for players to follow the formula?

Draisaitl f***ed up.

Really good financial investors would tell you to get as much money as quickly as possible. So, say you sign a $60M contract, you should try to get half paid in the first 2 years - ie. July 1 SB = $8M, season salary = $4M, July 1 SB = $8M, season salary = $4M, July 1 SB = #8M, total = $32M. That money is much better being put to work for you right away than it is being set aside to pay you at a later date.

Marner's contract is a great example of this. He gets $41M in the first 2 years, including the 3 SBs, and sacrifices a bit on term and/or AAV to get it. That $41M, earning a modest 10% return per year, would be worth $66M by the time that 6 year contract is done. That extra $25M, divided by the lifetime of the contract, is an additional $4.17M per year. He would have had to sign 8 years, $11.25M AAV to end up with the same money at the end of his contract as he did doing it this way. And it would have been structured with much less upfront money. But he would have also exited that contract at 29, instead of 27. His AAV on his next contract might even be worth $3M more per year, just because his contract runs from 27-35. Net surplus value would be roughly $100M+ over the course of his earning career just from getting $41M of $65M total compensation paid out in those first 2 years.

 

[Golden_Jet]

Draisaitl f***ed up.

Really good financial investors would tell you to get as much money as quickly as possible. So, say you sign a $60M contract, you should try to get half paid in the first 2 years - ie. July 1 SB = $8M, season salary = $4M, July 1 SB = $8M, season salary = $4M, July 1 SB = #8M, total = $32M. That money is much better being put to work for you right away than it is being set aside to pay you at a later date.

Marner's contract is a great example of this. He gets $41M in the first 2 years, including the 3 SBs, and sacrifices a bit on term and/or AAV to get it. That $41M, earning a modest 10% return per year, would be worth $66M by the time that 6 year contract is done. That extra $25M, divided by the lifetime of the contract, is an additional $4.17M per year. He would have had to sign 8 years, $11.25M AAV to end up with the same money at the end of his contract as he did doing it this way. And it would have been structured with much less upfront money. But he would have also exited that contract at 29, instead of 27. His AAV on his next contract might even be worth $3M more per year, just because his contract runs from 27-35. Net surplus value would be roughly $100M+ over the course of his earning career just from getting $41M of $65M total compensation paid out in those first 2 years.

Yet when he signed it, most trashed it.

 

[inthewings]

Dorion doesn’t struggle, the Ottawa Senators struggle to get vets to come to the small city with big taxes, during a rebuild.

Dorion absolutely struggles. We've seen him repeatedly fail in his evaluation of pro players (Stepan, Murray, Dadonov, Murray, Joseph, Duchene, Debrincat, Brassard etc...). Almost every NHL player he's brought in has flopped. Thank god Giroux wanted to come home.

 

[Sun God Nika]

anyone know where we can find the audio from the presser?

 

[AchtzehnBaby]

Dorion absolutely struggles. We've seen him repeatedly fail in his evaluation of pro players (Stepan, Murray, Dadonov, Murray, Joseph, Duchene, Debrincat, Brassard etc...). Almost every NHL player he's brought in has flopped. Thank god Giroux wanted to come home.

Maybe those are the only ones he could get… slim pickings have their risks

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

Maybe those are the only ones he could get… slim pickings have their risks

There's two sides of that coin though for sure. Slim pickings but also rarely worked out. One doesn't excuse the other, but he is clearly disadvantaged.

 

[Golden_Jet]

anyone know where we can find the audio from the presser?

Scroll back through thread

 

[inthewings]

Maybe those are the only ones he could get… slim pickings have their risks

Those players, with the exception of Dadonov, were acquired via trade. Many, many good players have been traded over the last half decade. Dorion just failed to properly spend his trade capital.

 

[bert]

Dorion doesn’t struggle, the Ottawa Senators struggle to get vets to come to the small city with big taxes, during a rebuild.

Dorion traded 3 picks inluding 7th OA for a player that didnt want to be here and is leaving after a year. He has paid multiple assets for teams to take players that he signed and traded for. The sens have 6 million in dead cap because of this.

 

[Beech]

Draisaitl f***ed up.

Really good financial investors would tell you to get as much money as quickly as possible. So, say you sign a $60M contract, you should try to get half paid in the first 2 years - ie. July 1 SB = $8M, season salary = $4M, July 1 SB = $8M, season salary = $4M, July 1 SB = #8M, total = $32M. That money is much better being put to work for you right away than it is being set aside to pay you at a later date.

Marner's contract is a great example of this. He gets $41M in the first 2 years, including the 3 SBs, and sacrifices a bit on term and/or AAV to get it. That $41M, earning a modest 10% return per year, would be worth $66M by the time that 6 year contract is done. That extra $25M, divided by the lifetime of the contract, is an additional $4.17M per year. He would have had to sign 8 years, $11.25M AAV to end up with the same money at the end of his contract as he did doing it this way. And it would have been structured with much less upfront money. But he would have also exited that contract at 29, instead of 27. His AAV on his next contract might even be worth $3M more per year, just because his contract runs from 27-35. Net surplus value would be roughly $100M+ over the course of his earning career just from getting $41M of $65M total compensation paid out in those first 2 years.

like I wrote: Mitch and Austin. Gold standard for what to do.
Leon, Gold standard for what not to do

DBC would have been the platinum standard, if he had put up 40 goals.

Tim and Brady and Leon... are in the same camp. What mistakes.

 

[AchtzehnBaby]

Dorion traded 3 picks inluding 7th OA for a player that didnt want to be here and is leaving after a year. He has paid multiple assets for teams to take players that he signed and traded for. The sens have 6 million in dead cap because of this.

He also did more amazing things too…

Glass half full for me.