Management GM Pierre Dorion/Front Office Thread - Part IX [Mod Warning in post 1)

[swiftwin]

Many general managers do fail at it. And they eventually get relieved of their duties as a result. It is an expectation regardless.

The CBA framework enables parity in the NHL through that exact mechanism of extended asset control. It is expected of general managers to maximize their use of assets through either retaining them or trading them at high value.

PD’s failure to figure that out in the earlier years of his tenure led to a string of basement finishes, and despite his declarations to the contrary, zero meaningful hockey games in the past six years. Time to go.

"Asset management" as you describe it is a basic expectation for a general manager, and is only a small part of the responsibilities of a GM. Any kid who's played NHL23 before can do "asset management".

A good general manager needs to balance this NHL23-style "asset management" with the vision to focus on the team culture, focus on cap management in the short term, focus on cap management in the long term, focus on properly developing your young players.

I'll easily take a general manager that can properly balance all those things over a general manager who can nickel and dime an extra late draft pick here 'n there, but fails to build the foundation of a good core locked down on great long term contracts with a great team culture.

 

[swiftwin]

Reading your posts, I think you focus too much on the reasoning behind the moves sometimes and consider them okay because you supported the thought process. You're not alone in that and many think that's the way you judge their work.

I'm a little more harsh with hindsight and think that even if the logic was sound, if it doesn't work out, then the egg is on the guy that made the move. Things like say Stepan & Gus may have some reasoning behind them, but there's no way anyone can look at the moves in hindsight and call it anything other than a mistake.

They may ultimately get there anyways, but its hard to deny there wasn't some opportunities squandered along the way and maybe the last couple years would have been a little more competitive otherwise.

You're absolutely right. The big difference between me and many posters around here is that I seek to understand while others seek to judge.

No general manager is going to bat 1.000. The job is not about being some sort of clairvoyant oracle. Every single move or signing assumes some sort of risk. The job is about assessing that risk, trying to stack the odds in your favor, and rolling the dice. Sometimes you roll a 20, and there's nothing you can do about it.

At the end of the day, what matters is the overall performance, and so far, Dorion's performance has been undeniably good, especially when you consider the current state of the team.

 

[Golden_Jet]

Reading your posts, I think you focus too much on the reasoning behind the moves sometimes and consider them okay because you supported the thought process. You're not alone in that and many think that's the way you judge their work.

I'm a little more harsh with hindsight and think that even if the logic was sound, if it doesn't work out, then the egg is on the guy that made the move. Things like say Stepan & Gus may have some reasoning behind them, but there's no way anyone can look at the moves in hindsight and call it anything other than a mistake.

They may ultimately get there anyways, but its hard to deny there wasn't some opportunities squandered along the way and maybe the last couple years would have been a little more competitive otherwise.

Is hindsight really the best way to judge.

 

[YouGotAStuGoing]

Is hindsight really the best way to judge.

It's as good a way as any. If we want to judge in the moment, based on what was known at the time of the trade, there's an argument to be made that the Karlsson trade was an abject failure. Of course, we know this not to be true because of the results. I think the best way is a little of in-the-moment and a little of hindsight, personally, because it usually provides the most complete picture.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

Is hindsight really the best way to judge.

as opposed to?

 

[swiftwin]

It's as good a way as any. If we want to judge in the moment, based on what was known at the time of the trade, there's an argument to be made that the Karlsson trade was an abject failure. Of course, we know this not to be true because of the results. I think the best way is a little of in-the-moment and a little of hindsight, personally, because it usually provides the most complete picture.

The flip side of that coin is that the Duchene trade was a great since we had no idea that 1st rounder was going to be good.

At the end of the day, the only thing that truly matters is the current state of the team, along with it's projected potential.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

The flip side of that coin is that the Duchene trade was a great since we had no idea that 1st rounder was going to be good.

At the end of the day, the only thing that truly matters is the current state of the team, along with it's projected potential.

These are the thoughts of a self proclaimed superior human.

 

[YouGotAStuGoing]

The flip side of that coin is that the Duchene trade was a great since we had no idea that 1st rounder was going to be good.

Sure, that's true. And in hindsight it turned out to be significantly less good than we'd thought at the time. Both things can be true.

At the end of the day, the only thing that truly matters is the current state of the team, along with it's projected potential.

Nah. Patterns and process matter. If you're getting to the right place doing the wrong thing, that's not a repeatable process. Likewise, if you're continuously failing but the process is correct, trusting in it is more likely to help you achieve success than being reactionary.

The current state of the team isn't much of a metric for past or future success so much as it is a snapshot in time.

 

[swiftwin]

Nah. Patterns and process matter. If you're getting to the right place doing the wrong thing, that's not a repeatable process. Likewise, if you're continuously failing but the process is correct, trusting in it is more likely to help you achieve success than being reactionary.

Again, like @StrakaCorvoHoffman said, that's why I focus on the reasoning and the process behind the moves, not hindsight. Dorion's process is correct, which is why the team is on the path to success despite the odd move going south here n there.

If the process is good, and the result is good, why are people complaining?

 

[swiftwin]

I also want to ask this:

How many teams have successfully done a full scorched earth rebuild in 6 years or less? How many of these teams did it without a single one of the team's draft picks winning the lottery (top 3)?

 

[Hale The Villain]

Arguments for keeping Dorion tend to be so shallow and surface level.

A general sense that the team is in good shape can convince a lot of casual fans that Dorion has done a good job.

Never mind that after trading away more talent than any other team in the last decade and sucking for 5 years it would be almost impossible to not have a bright future after all that suffering.

Dig below the surface and look at his contributions to the team's current state, primarily via trades, signings and hires (the main responsibilities of a GM) and it's beyond obvious he's been awful.

 

[LuckyPierre]

"Asset management" as you describe it is a basic expectation for a general manager, and is only a small part of the responsibilities of a GM. Any kid who's played NHL23 before can do "asset management".

A good general manager needs to balance this NHL23-style "asset management" with the vision to focus on the team culture, focus on cap management in the short term, focus on cap management in the long term, focus on properly developing your young players.

I'll easily take a general manager that can properly balance all those things over a general manager who can nickel and dime an extra late draft pick here 'n there, but fails to build the foundation of a good core locked down on great long term contracts with a great team culture.

Vegas just won the cup. They are not seen as an organization that cultivates a great team culture. Quite the opposite. They simply produce results.

I’m not familiar with NHL23, but asset management matters, and winning creates a great culture.

 

[swiftwin]

Arguments for keeping Dorion tend to be so shallow and surface level.

A general sense that the team is in good shape can convince a lot of casual fans that Dorion has done a good job.

Never mind that after trading away more talent than any other team in the last decade and sucking for 5 years it would be almost impossible to not have a bright future after all that suffering.

Dig below the surface and look at his contributions to the team's current state, primarily via trades, signings and hires (the main responsibilities of a GM) and it's beyond obvious he's been awful.

Edit: I'm also amused that you say Dorion has done a bad job at hiring when everyone tries to dismiss Dorion's work by crediting Boucher for our deep run in 2017, and credits Mann for our drafting.

 

[Beech]

Again, like @StrakaCorvoHoffman said, that's why I focus on the reasoning and the process behind the moves, not hindsight. Dorion's process is correct, which is why the team is on the path to success despite the odd move going south here n there.

If the process is good, and the result is good, why are people complaining?

The feeling is: the process was not good. That the result was accidental.

aided by fluke circumstances.. SJ keeping Kane, jettisoning Pava,, delaying the handover of pick by one year, all the while Kane stunk and Pav was no longer there.. Incredible accidents.. less that, who knows about TIM.. less Tim, what is the outlook? 90 points in 78 games.. could have been 96 in 82 games and been 14th in scoring.. Less TIM, how well does Brady do points wise.. How well do others???

now add a Giroux that was home sick..unusual for a man who lived in the USA for15 years. Aided as well by a wife from Ottawa.. So, she too, home sick.. Often enough 19 year olds who head south, get American wives and never return.

but blind anger is looking past the 5-6 other exceptional draft picks and 1-2 other trades and signings: Zub, Chech, Norris, Pinto, Greig, Klevin, possibly Jarv.. still huge hope for Boucher and Ost.

In the end it is a process that had mistakes and success..

 

[swiftwin]

The feeling is: the process was not good.

I have yet to see anyone criticize Dorion's process. All I ever see is "Captain Hindsights" pointing out the bad moves and ignoring the good ones.

 

[Beech]

I have yet to see anyone criticize Dorion's process. All I ever see is "Captain Hindsights" pointing out the bad moves and ignoring the good ones.

yes,,, yup.. like I wrote. Anger is blinding us to the good.. even I struggle.,. I can articulate the failures or flukes far more readily and with greater details. And I tend to ""minimize""" the good.

I was so sure Klevin was a bust, I would have bet my house.. Now I have to bite my lip. I was so sure Giroux was a mistake, now I have to eat crow.

If by year's end this team is sitting at 100 points.. I hope everyone on here is man/women/genderless-being enough to acknowledge.

 

[aragorn]

The team took a step forward, given all of the injuries they had to key players mostly both goalies they were still in the race almost to the end of the season. IMO that is a huge step forward from the previous yr, I don't care about past mistakes I care about where the team is headed & whether this is a playoff team or not & I think it could be. Given the circumstances, Covid, ownership, injuries to key players & all of the other crap that surrounded this team over the past few yrs they have come out of it with a decent young team that has playoff potential & some depth.

If they can turn DBC into two good pieces (Hart & Laughton) that help make the playoffs, if they can re-sign Formenton who is a very good top nine player, hopefully Jiri turns into a decent bottom six player & Sokolov, Kleven & JBD graduate should all imrpove this team. IMO this would be a good big tough playoff team with enough skill & with a decent #1 goalie who is still quite young that can challenge in the playoffs. I hope Dorion can turn DBC into both those Philly pieces that will improve the team overall.

 

[Gil Gunderson]

Holland also rejected a promotion in Detroit when Illitch wanted Yzerman to be GM.

 

[AchtzehnBaby]

Holland also rejected a promotion in Detroit when Illitch wanted Yzerman to be GM.

Staios did player development and a bit of amateur scouting. He will work well under Dorion

 

[Beech]

Staios did player development and a bit of amateur scouting. He will work well under Dorion

let's see
1) I see the name of Brad Holland.. Kenneth Holland's SON.... Daddy may be a tad peeved that junior is being jumped by Steve...
2) you would think he would be happy.. now Junior has one less person to compete against.

f*** Old Kenny Boy comes off as an ass. Was about as supportive or complimentary as a jil;ted ex-wife.

Dman..my Old Man and selling shoes.. he couldn't be an NHL GM.. or better yet, a shady real-estate developer... Me and my luck!!!

If anyone knows an old rich, I mean really rich guy looking to adopt. I'm in... I don't care how shady or immoral.. I'm still in. i will give you a finders fee and cut you in on future Sens deals.

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

You're absolutely right. The big difference between me and many posters around here is that I seek to understand while others seek to judge.

No general manager is going to bat 1.000. The job is not about being some sort of clairvoyant oracle. Every single move or signing assumes some sort of risk. The job is about assessing that risk, trying to stack the odds in your favor, and rolling the dice. Sometimes you roll a 20, and there's nothing you can do about it.

At the end of the day, what matters is the overall performance, and so far, Dorion's performance has been undeniably good, especially when you consider the current state of the team.

And I don't fault you for that line of thinking, context matters, and it all needs to be accounted for, but I still have trouble coming to the conclusion you come to at the end as "undeniably good". If we're talking undeniable, I think the last couple years didn't have to be as bad as they were and they wouldn't have been as bad had more of what he tried worked out and I still think hindsight has to play in to assessing a GM's performance.

Is hindsight really the best way to judge.

It has to be a part of it. Obviously it can't be the only thing, and context needs to be strongly weighed in as well, but these guys are basically making bets on what will work out and what won't. Attempting to predict future performance, contract terms, desire to stay, etc., both for those coming in and going out, and imo they need to live and die on the results of those bets, combined with taking in to account some context.

Again, I see both sides, but I don't know how you can look at his body of work as any sort of slam dunk. He did well in 2017 (sans Zbad) and poorly in 2018. There's been lots of ups and downs with players brought in the 5 years since. I think he absolutely could be kept on and given a chance to round out the roster and don't fault anyone voting for that option. I also think that there's more than enough argument for him to be replaced, especially at this stage of the rebuild. It's this attempt to make it black and white that makes everyone look silly.

And in regard to swapping GM's, it's not about shit canning a guy all the time, it's about changes in philosophy, another set of eyes with different biases than the previous guy, or having a different team of people feeding info, etc. I don't think Dorion deserves to be shamed, tarred and feathered like I did about Melnyk, but I would still prefer a change knowing we're no longer limited to Melnyk's hiring requirements.

 

[Knave]

Edit: I'm also amused that you say Dorion has done a bad job at hiring when everyone tries to dismiss Dorion's work by crediting Boucher for our deep run in 2017, and credits Mann for our drafting.

We do not have our own pick in the first 3 rounds of the draft. We have not made the playoffs. We might be unable to re-sign one of our top 6 forwards on our NOT-A-PLAYOFF-TEAM.

But sure. Dorion was good at scouting. Why is he a GM again? To not draft players? That seems to be what you're suggesting.

Dorion is successful at drafting and so to lead this team into the future he traded all our draft picks and failed to make the playoffs. With managing like that we might as well fold the franchise.

 

[Ice-Tray]

And I don't fault you for that line of thinking, context matters, and it all needs to be accounted for, but I still have trouble coming to the conclusion you come to at the end as "undeniably good". If we're talking undeniable, I think the last couple years didn't have to be as bad as they were and they wouldn't have been as bad had more of what he tried worked out and I still think hindsight has to play in to assessing a GM's performance.

It has to be a part of it. Obviously it can't be the only thing, and context needs to be strongly weighed in as well, but these guys are basically making bets on what will work out and what won't. Attempting to predict future performance, contract terms, desire to stay, etc. and imo they need to live and die on the results of those bets, combined with taking in to account context.

Again, I see both sides, but I don't know how you can look at his body of work as any sort of slam dunk. He did well in 2017 (sans Zbad) and poorly in 2018. There's been lots of ups and downs with players brought in the 5 years since. I think he absolutely could be kept on and given a chance to round out the roster and don't fault anyone voting for that option. I also think that there's more than enough argument for him to be replaced, especially at this stage of the rebuild. It's this attempt to make it black and white that makes everyone look silly.

And in regard to swapping GM's, it's not about shit canning a guy all the time, it's about changes in philosophy, another set of eyes with different biases than the previous guy, or having a different team of people feeding info, etc. I don't think Dorion deserves to be shamed, tarred and feathered like I did about Melnyk, but I would still prefer a change knowing we're no longer limited to Melnyk's hiring requirements.

I don’t know about that.

The push back here is rarely about a slam dunks, rather its usually about being reasonable and patient, which is a massive issue on a forum where many seem to be reactionary, petulant, emotional, vindictive, anonymous, and hold expert opinions on most things!

Good times ahead with new personnel to bicker over

We do not have our own pick in the first 3 rounds of the draft. We have not made the playoffs. We might be unable to re-sign one of our top 6 forwards on our NOT-A-PLAYOFF-TEAM.

But sure. Dorion was good at scouting. Why is he a GM again? To not draft players? That seems to be what you're suggesting.

Dorion is successful at drafting and so to lead this team into the future he traded all our draft picks and failed to make the playoffs. With managing like that we might as well fold the franchise.

Context Matters.

 

[SENStastic]

Only legitimate praise I can give Dorion is for the contracts he's given out to our core players, he's done very well there. Everything else is a mixed bag, Chychrun acquisition doesn't balance out his numerous blunders beforehand. Staffing has been terrible as well, coaching, pro scouting and prospect departments all need a complete overhaul.

My hope is that he signs Sanderson and Pinto to long term extensions with team friendly deals and gets replaced immediately, dont want him involved in any trades or staffing decisions going forwards, one of the worst asset managers out there.

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

I don’t know about that.

The push back here is rarely about a slam dunks, rather its usually about being reasonable and patient, which is a massive issue on a forum where many seem to be reactionary, petulant, emotional, vindictive, anonymous, and hold expert opinions on most things!

Good times ahead with new personnel to bicker over


Context Matters.

I think its fair to say both apply at different times. Plenty of entrenched positions on all sides of the coin here and there's a wide variety of posters obviously and everyone can't be put in a box. One thing I've really noticed since the toxic vitriol here mostly died down is how nuanced the arguments are from those put in boxes. The disagreement from those seemingly within the same boxes started showing up again more and more.

Sports "experts" are everywhere and that's just not gonna change. Just be glad it's not as bad as facebook comments lol. I try to steer clear of the bickering these days either way. My beef was always more with Melnyk even if I'm not over the moon with Dorion's body of work, and now Melnyk is out of the picture.

Also, the idea of replacing a coach or GM has gotten a heck of a lot more exciting with Melnyk gone and the pool the team just opened itself up to that wasn't there previously. I think that's a big reason it gets so much attention. This team has never had that luxury and I think that changes the outlook significantly. It's no longer simply about which GM we can hire internally, or which coach will accept a low salary, and I think that's a big driver of the conversation.