every GM lives in the "win the lottery world". It goes beyond winning the lottery, as in selecting first.
winning the lottery in pro sports is "f***ing good luck".. it is Tom Brady as a 198 or 199 pick and becoming the goat. Then you have 21 years in New England with Belichik the genius..
It is Daniel Alfredson and being a sixth rounder.
GMs live and die, gain insane reputations on the backs of; 1-5 un f'ng real pieces of good fortune. Of unheralded picks developing. Of crazy circumstances that lands them quality players.
This thread would be Dorion the Genius if from 2015-2020 a few extra picks hit.. one or two trades hit. Some goalie you never gave a second look too, becomes the next Martin Brodeur or Patrick Roy.
Ken Holland has ridden the last 20 years on that. Now he wants to stay long enough to get his son appointed to replace him in Edmonton. Glen Sather had a 20 year ride as well.
There's such a thing as luck for sure. And I agree with just about everything you wrote.
But there are certain times in GMs careers that they HAVE to get it right. And Dorion has done enough to say that he's done a pretty good job, all things considered (Melnyk and Ottawa market handicaps).
He had to get the Karlsson trade right, and he luckily hit a grandslam - enough to recover from the loss of the Stone trade - another must win. I take Tim Stutzle alone over EK and Stone, never mind Norris making it a landslide win. This is going forward of course.
But he HAD to get the Stutzle and Sanderson and Tkatchuk picks right. And he did. We don't give enough credit for him setting this franchise up beautifully for the next decade, regardless of whether or not he's around or the rest of his moves pay off.
Franchises can spend a whole generation looking for these kind of players to anchor their team at those key positions - and lead by the highest example. Happy and enthusiastic to be here and be the leaders of the team. I count Chabot in this group too, fwiw.
Point being is that too many people like to ignore how lucky we are to not be like Montreal, who's picked even higher over this same time span, and got a laughably bad return by comparison. Again I probably take Stutzle alone over all three of their top picks.
It was never a given that we were gonna land 3 key franchise building blocks with our 3 top 5 picks my people. But we did. That's pretty impressive given the uncertainty of the draft today folks. Any one of those 3 picks missing would have been a massive blow this teams future. And those picks were all surrounded by some big misses at their drafts - picture it like a game of minesweeper that Dorion clearly won.