Management GM Pierre Dorion/Front Office Thread - Part IX [Mod Warning in post 1)

[Icelevel]

Mike Johnson was in today saying the same thing. He said that there has been a shift in thinking and that GM’s don’t consider later 1st round picks as valuable as they used to.

This would explain the widening gap between difference between what fans think is valuable in terms of draft picks and what actual GMs think is valuable.


Uhhhh now making the playoffs isn’t enough for you?

Yeah, no not at this stage. Making the playoffs should have been last years goal. Failed. Improved but failed in my eyes. Need to take a a big step cause that leash has to be real short for at least one guy who should have been gone a long time ago.

 

[Duncstar]

Having a lame duck GM who loves making splashy short-term trades is a recipe for disaster. Wouldn't have minded letting Dorion go and having Bowness step in as interim GM.

Too late bud let's focus on what we Can do, not fairy tales. Dorion and Smith get canned next year when we fail to make the playoffs again. Pretty sure that's how this goes.

 

[Beech]

Mike Johnson was in today saying the same thing. He said that there has been a shift in thinking and that GM’s don’t consider later 1st round picks as valuable as they used to.

This would explain the widening gap between difference between what fans think is valuable in terms of draft picks and what actual GMs think is valuable.


Uhhhh now making the playoffs isn’t enough for you?

the data backs it. 2 minutes on hockeydb..

check out picks 17-32 over the last 20 years.. at best 50% success rate and at best 20% "star success".

so of the 16 picks, you have 3 that will become better than middling players..

the problem is: what do you do, not trade with a team in the playoffs?

 

[Micklebot]

To me, it sounded like he said 2 separate things within 1 continuous thought.

1) he doesn't think they will end up with a 1RP this year and, separately, 2) 1RPs are not worth as much as GMs are thinking they are.

I don't know if it's just posturing to get better trade value for Debrincat or if they genuinely believe the draft, around where they would have picked, was not sufficiently deep to get a high-quality prospect or if they just don't value 1RPs as highly as they did before because they're looking to make the playoffs this year.

I guess I'd need to listen to the clip again to hear the exact phrasing he used.

I wouldn't value first round picks as highly either if I thought Boucher was worth 10 OA....

Seriously though, we have some established values right now:

DeBrincat with 1 year remaining and 1 year extra control was worth a 7oa, 2nd and 3rd.

Newhook as a RFA coming off his ELC was worth a 31st oa and 2nd

Dubois was worth Vilardi, Iafallo, Kupari and a 2nd.

Feels like we should land somewhere in between,

 

[Tnuoc Alucard]

a repeat of a post I wrote 3 weeks or so ago.

1) Leon Draisaitl. A gold example of how not to sign a contract
2) Austin Mathews and Mitch Marner. Two gold examples of how to sign contracts

Right after ELC, it is idiotic to sign 8 x Y contracts unless you are a mid table player. Which, realistically will never happen. The team will never offer you one.

a) you sign a 3 year Debrincat contract in todays money (goal 8 M AAV): 6 M, 8 M, 10 M so that your qualifying is 10M. Now you negotiate an 8 x Y contract after you see the market and what you have accomplished.

b) you sign a 5 year contract at 10,9,8,7,6 .. still is 8 M AAV...but at 6 M end year, if you fail to reach an agreement on the follow up 8 x Y. It is easy for the team to trade you. You are young and can sign anywhere.

c) you sign an 8 x Y and the Y is high (Hello M Marner)..

Austin was brilliant, he combined b) and c) lots of money, short/intermediate term.

Leon...OOOOHHHH. left 2 M on the table.. will try to recoup it at 29 years old... If his contract had ended 2 seasons ago. He would today be on a new 8 x 12-13 M... EASILY..

why the bleep is it so hard for players to follow the formula?

well there is this thing called the Salary Cap, and the other thing, winning the Stanley Cup.

have you noticed the Leafs winning a cup recently?
Matthews and Marner are laughing all the way to the Bank… they’re not committing to the team goal of winning the Cup….

By the way, thought you disliked the pursuit of wealth, and how it is used. Shouldn’t you be chastising the rich selfish players for not donating 1/2 of their salaries to attempt to cure cancer or something?

 

[Dionysus]

Too late bud let's focus on what we Can do, not fairy tales. Dorion and Smith get canned next year when we fail to make the playoffs again. Pretty sure that's how this goes.

Hoping they can salvage the Cat situation and add some solid depth pieces. Doesn't seem like too much to ask this off-season.

 

[AchtzehnBaby]

 

[AchtzehnBaby]

Did I miss this?

 

[HSF]

...and he got rehired a week later.

Also, he got fired because of lots of drama surrounding his negotiations with Shanahan. They were going to extend him.

I just find it hilarious that Dorion gets a ton of shit for taking a chance on Murray when the stakes were low, but Dubas got little for taking on the same risk when the stakes were ridiculously high.

He got a pick and retention for taking him on

They could also easily just buy him out with the limited term

 

[BankStreetParade]

He got a pick and retention for taking him on

They could also easily just buy him out with the limited term

Wouldn't the GM of a team with championship aspirations be wise to avoid deals for players like Murray even if there is cap retention and pick compensation? That's a deal bottom-feeders usually make to weaponize their cap space.

He's had the most finite amount of cap to maximize every position on the roster. Isn't it Bad GM 101 to go out and get a guy who eats $4M+ of your cap when he's proven to be a f***ing bum for 5 years straight?

Swiftwin is right. Dorion gets dunked on for signing him but Dubas is unaffected by the move even though it's the antithesis of what GMs with his roster composition should be doing.

 

[Icelevel]

Did I miss this?

Yeah I don’t get why you’d say that you might get a 2nd or 3rd round pick but really don’t expect a first.
I’m not sure why you’d say that. But I’m obviously not a smart man.

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

Wouldn't the GM of a team with championship aspirations be wise to avoid deals for players like Murray even if there is cap retention and pick compensation? That's a deal bottom-feeders usually make to weaponize their cap space.

He's had the most finite amount of cap to maximize every position on the roster. Isn't it Bad GM 101 to go out and get a guy who eats $4M+ of your cap when he's proven to be a f***ing bum for 5 years straight?

Swiftwin is right. Dorion gets dunked on for signing him but Dubas is unaffected by the move even though it's the antithesis of what GMs with his roster composition should be doing.

I certainly did dunk on him for that. Never in a million years did I think anyone was taking that overpaid wafflebot off our hands.

 

[Cosmix]

Hoping they can salvage the Cat situation and add some solid depth pieces. Doesn't seem like too much to ask this off-season.

I want quality, not depth pieces. Not sure if Dorion can get that though.

 

[Agent Zuuuub]

I don't really listen to Dorion interviews that much and maybe I'm analyzing it too much but

Damn did Dorion have a vacant glazed look in his eyes, a man who knows his job is numbered and his career at risk.

And even when he was talking about getting DBC and now having to trade him, it's like he was trying to talk with a lump in his throat.

 

[Billy Bridges]

What are the chances Dorion fakes another phone call when he trades ADC?

 

[Golden_Jet]

I don't really listen to Dorion interviews that much and maybe I'm analyzing it too much but

Damn did Dorion have a vacant glazed look in his eyes, a man who knows his job is numbered and his career at risk.

And even when he was talking about getting DBC and now having to trade him, it's like he was trying to talk with a lump in his throat.

Didn’t watch, maybe it’s not much sleep the last few day’s catching up.

 

[HSF]

NJD GM is doing work

Signed Meier and got toffoli


I hope Dorion is taking notes on how to speed up a rebuild

 

[Golden_Jet]

NJD GM is doing work

Signed Meier and got toffoli


I hope Dorion is taking notes on how to speed up a rebuild

I get your point, but now Sens have a board to go through and a new owner to consult.
Not like PD didn’t try to accelerate rebuild with Chychurn, Giroux and DBC.

Can’t really do much until he knows if he has DBC money to spend or not.

 

[BondraTime]

What are the chances Dorion fakes another phone call when he trades ADC?

What am I missing here? When did he fake a phone call?

 

[YouGotAStuGoing]

What am I missing here? When did he fake a phone call?

Phone doesn't look like it's on a call (though tbf it could be minimized and just on the top bar, which the camera doesn't capture), there's not much pausing for moments where you'd reasonably expect Chicago's GM to say anything, and he doesn't visibly hang up at the end. Not sure if it is or isn't fake, but sure looks like acting moreso than a true call.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

Dissecting Dorion segment is good.... Warne really seems to sell keeping DeBrincat. Anyone crunch the numbers if he stays for say 7.5 this year.
How much to we end up with for improving the bottom 6 and fetching a goalie?

 

[Ouroboros]

Dissecting Dorion segment is good.... Warne really seems to sell keeping DeBrincat. Anyone crunch the numbers if he stays for say 7.5 this year.
How much to we end up with for improving the bottom 6 and fetching a goalie?

The lowest arbitrated settlement for DeBrincat is 7.65M, but I think more likely it comes in a little higher than that. About 8M seems reasonable. Very tough to fill out a roster in that case...

Tkachuk [8.205714] - Stutzle [8.35] - Giroux [6.5]
DeBrincat [8] - Norris [7.95] - Batherson [4.975]
Greig [.863333] - Pinto [2.5] - Joseph [2.95]
Kelly [.7625] - Kastelic [.835] - Sokolov [.9]

Chabot [8] - Chychrun [4.6]
Sanderson [.925] - Zub [4.6]
Brannstrom [1.5] - JBD [.9]

Forsberg [2.75]
Sogaard [.925]

Murray [1.5625]
Ryan [1.833333]
White [.875]
MDZ [.750]

Total - 82M

Think I've been reasonable on the RFA numbers. You have essentially no space even if you carry a 20 man roster. Toronto buying out Murray would help quite a bit but not sure that's in the cards.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

The lowest arbitrated settlement for DeBrincat is 7.65M, but I think more likely it comes in a little higher than that. About 8M seems reasonable. Very tough to fill out a roster in that case...

Tkachuk [8.205714] - Stutzle [8.35] - Giroux [6.5]
DeBrincat [8] - Norris [7.95] - Batherson [4.975]
Greig [.863333] - Pinto [2.5] - Joseph [2.95]
Kelly [.7625] - Kastelic [.835] - Sokolov [.9]

Chabot [8] - Chychrun [4.6]
Sanderson [.925] - Zub [4.6]
Brannstrom [1.5] - JBD [.9]

Forsberg [2.75]
Sogaard [.925]

Murray [1.5625]
Ryan [1.833333]
White [.875]
MDZ [.750]

Total - 82M

Think I've been reasonable on the RFA numbers. You have essentially no space even if you carry a 20 man roster. Toronto buying out Murray would help quite a bit but not sure that's in the cards.

Nice job... I suspect this is very close. ... So we can expect things to be deafeningly quiet until Dorion finds a trade partner for DeBrincat.
Having Norris and Chychrun will help but the depth would kill us if we manage to scrape into the playoffs. Looks like someone else will have to deal with it after this year.

 

[Adele Dazeem]

NJD GM is doing work

Signed Meier and got toffoli


I hope Dorion is taking notes on how to speed up a rebuild

I agree with you regarding making moves; free agents/trades, but those bastards won multiple draft lotteries. That's what kickstarted their rebuild.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

I agree with you regarding making moves; free agents/trades, but those bastards won multiple draft lotteries. That's what kickstarted their rebuild.

sour grapes. They've done really well building a contender. Way ahead.