Management GM Pierre Dorion/Front Office Thread - Part IX [Mod Warning in post 1)

[BankStreetParade]

You said 5v5, Tavares had 37, Giroux 42.

Did you maybe mean ES? With ES you might have wide discrepancy in 3v3, 4v4 you, also not sure if your numbers introduce EN situations which again has the potential to skew things.

I said:

I think a caveat in determining his current contract value is the fact that he was T46 among centers in EVP and T86 if you expand it to all skaters.

When I said 5v5, I meant EVP, because that's what I was initially talking about. I didn't look at Tavares' 5on5 stats. Or anyone else's for that matter.

 

[Micklebot]

I said:

When I said 5v5, I meant EVP, because that's what I was initially talking about. I didn't look at Tavares' 5on5 stats. Or anyone else's for that matter.

Well, as explained, ES adds a lot of noise, which is why most people use 5v5. I can't read minds so when you say

I'm not sure there's really much of an argument that he's worth more than 6.5M AAV right now, especially considering Giroux vastly outproduced him at 5v5

That's what I'm going to reply to.

In coming up with a valuation for his contract, I'm not only looking at the 3.5 minutes per game the guy plays on one of the most productive PP units in the league, I'm considering what he's doing to drive play the majority of his TOI which comes at even strength. In that regard, he was 46th among centers this year and 86th among all skaters. If you build a comp for him as a hypothetical free agent this year, based on his peers, he's a midlevel 2C according to his EVP production and a PP specialist Top 6F, and should be compensated at a level commensurate with that calibre of player.

That's interesting, because you apparently put a lot of value on the 12 pts in 97 mins of non 5v5 ES play that Giroux had. For the record, Tavares only had 4 pts in 72 of those non 5v5 ES mins,

Most of the play is going to be 5v5, not the other ES stuff.

I took a snapshot of players over 28, tabulated the average cap hit for the top 20 p/gp and came back with a result of $7.67M. He's 13th on the list. The average for the same group from 11-20 is $7.1725M. So if I had to place a fair estimate on his comps, based on both his age and production, I would assume his real value is somewhere between those 2 numbers. Maybe he pushes to 8 if someone gets desperate? But it seems likely he's closer to the $7M mark than the $8M mark.

Are those guys on UFA contracts, or contracts signed prior to becoming UFA?

How about this, 197 forwards signed at 27 or older, Tavares was 7th amongst them in scoring this past season. Twenty three of them made 7 mil or more, sixteen 8 mil or more, ten 9 mil or more.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

Well, as explained, ES adds a lot of noise, which is why most people use 5v5. I can't read minds so when you say

That's what I'm going to reply to.

That's interesting, because you apparently put a lot of value on the 12 pts in 97 mins of non 5v5 ES play that Giroux had. For the record, Tavares only had 4 pts in 72 of those non 5v5 ES mins,

Most of the play is going to be 5v5, not the other ES stuff.


Are those guys on UFA contracts, or contracts signed prior to becoming UFA?

How about this, 197 forwards signed at 27 or older, Tavares was 7th amongst them in scoring this past season. Twenty three of them made 7 mil or more, sixteen 8 mil or more, ten 9 mil or more.

For sure you should use 5v5 for even .. both 3 on 3 and 4 on 4 are not good indicators and can be less even playing fields. see 80's oilers and the Gretzky rule.

 

[bert]

Tampa sucking for half a season, having injured players and having terrible goaltending is why they lost. Go watch the goal that ended the series against Florida its 100% on ROR. Then watch his attempt to skate back. It's ugly
He also got zero points in games 5 and 6 so no he is not the reason they beat anyone.

'Sucking for half the season' were talking about the series against tampa not the regular season not the florida series. Orielly had a huge part of it. Tell me you didn't watch the series without telling me you didn't watch the series. That's all I need to take from this reply. They won he was a part of it. He's also an important piece to add to a room. Something most internet fans don't either understand or refuse to acknowledge.

 

[Hockeysawks]

'Sucking for half the season' were talking about the series against tampa not the regular season not the florida series. Orielly had a huge part of it. Tell me you didn't watch the series without telling me you didn't watch the series. That's all I need to take from this reply. They won he was a part of it. He's also an important piece to add to a room. Something most internet fans don't either understand or refuse to acknowledge.

They got outplayed by a terrible team and won. I don't know what you saw

 

[bert]

They got outplayed by a terrible team and won. I don't know what you saw

Tampa is a 'terrible team'. They went to 3 straight finals 2 cups. Won 11 of 12 series. What a waste of time this discussion is. New posters coming in hot from sens twitter. Ugh

 

[Hockeysawks]

Tampa is a 'terrible team'. They went to 3 straight finals 2 cups. Won 11 of 12 series. What a waste of time this discussion is. New posters coming in hot from sens twitter. Ugh

.875 goaltending is brutal there is no winning with that. They were hurt missing players and looked tired, they played bad hockey for half the season.

But hey they were good before so no worries

 

[hockeywiz542]

If dubas walks it’s time to bring him in

Nick Kypreos: The Maple Leafs opened the door for Kyle Dubas to return. Why both should think twice

If Dubas is suffering from burnout he should take time to address those important challenges and not commit to the contract extension Leafs offered.

www.thestar.com

Some insiders believe the contract extension Dubas has been sitting on is worth roughly $4 million annually and includes access to the company jet ...

 

[Micklebot]

Tampa is a 'terrible team'. They went to 3 straight finals 2 cups. Won 11 of 12 series. What a waste of time this discussion is. New posters coming in hot from sens twitter. Ugh

So Florida can figure it out after 75 games of playing at the level of a bubble team that missed and be a presidents trophy caliber team but tampa playing at a 76 pts pace for their final 30 are still a great team even with Hedman getting hurt and Ciernik knocked out of the series in game one...

 

[BankStreetParade]

That's interesting, because you apparently put a lot of value on the 12 pts in 97 mins of non 5v5 ES play that Giroux had. For the record, Tavares only had 4 pts in 72 of those non 5v5 ES mins,

Most of the play is going to be 5v5, not the other ES stuff.


Are those guys on UFA contracts, or contracts signed prior to becoming UFA?

How about this, 197 forwards signed at 27 or older, Tavares was 7th amongst them in scoring this past season. Twenty three of them made 7 mil or more, sixteen 8 mil or more, ten 9 mil or more.

I would say even strength points in any configuration (3v3, 4v4, 5v5) are vastly more important to team success than PPP. If the numbers you're presenting are true, then it's kinda clear that not only is Tavares relied on less in non 5v5 ES scenarios but also produces vastly less. Think of the value of the additional point in OT vs the value of a 25% PP, over the course of a season.

Regarding the players I snapshotted, I'm not sure what your question matters. The median age of those 20 guys is 31.15 and all of the guys are in the same production range. It feels like the most fair assessment of his real value of anything I've seen proposed so far.

 

[Micklebot]

I would say even strength points in any configuration (3v3, 4v4, 5v5) are vastly more important to team success than PPP. If the numbers you're presenting are true, then it's kinda clear that not only is Tavares relied on less in non 5v5 ES scenarios but also produces vastly less. Think of the value of the additional point in OT vs the value of a 25% PP, over the course of a season.

All goals matter equally when the result of the game is judged, feels like your searching for stats to back your position rather than looking for an answer to a question.

4v4, 3v3 and ES situations with the net empty (either net) all add a lot of noise, you're no longer making an apple to Apple comparison when you bundle it all together as those are all high event scenarios where Giroux had more TOI. You could argue that it's a good thing his coach trusted him and played him more in those situations, but coaches usage is impacted by how often the team is in those scenarios and the team depth. It's alsoimpacted by the coaches philosophy in some cases, just way too many variables to try and tease out to be a reliable measure.

Regarding the players I snapshotted, I'm not sure what your question matters. The median age of those 20 guys is 31.15 and all of the guys are in the same production range. It feels like the most fair assessment of his real value of anything I've seen proposed so far.

It matters because the intent was to figure out market value for a UFA, so a kid signing an 8 yr extension at 24 before breaking out as a star player will have a very different market value than a 30 year old hitting UFA as a pt per game player.

You want to know his market value were he a UFA today, you look for players that signed deals under similar circumstances, it's not rocket science.

 

[Mark Stones Spleen]

This is factually incorrect. A blanket statement that is not accurate.

Easy to say in hind sight but there is no way im taking Tkachuk over Matthews at any point even now. Auston Matthews was a better player in that series than Tkachuk was and is a better player. He was good in this years playoffs. So was Nylander.

I dont think Marner is a guy you can win with in the playoffs time to move on from him. I think the leafs are in an identical situation to Florida last year when they decided to move on from Huberdeau. They need a shake up not a tear down.

Dubas has built a team completely on analytics that is easy to play against. Letting physical teams run their show not giving his top guys any room. This year he actually added hard players, they beat Tampa and were in a series against an elite Florida team that all 5 games could have gone either way.

Ryan Oriellys absolutely change that he has a conn smyth and figured into two of the three overtime goals they had against tampa and one game tieng goal.

People said Hossa was soft in the playoffs too he has 3 cups now and 5 finals appearances.

Game 1 - Tkachuk was a beast and had 3 assists
Game 2 - Matthews literally gave up the puck at the Blueline for the GWG (after a dumb play by Marner) and put in no effort to actually get that puck back.
Game 3 - Matthews 0 points in a must win
Game 4 - Toronto wins, Matthews again 0 points in an elimination.

Individual production isn't as important when you're winning a series as Florida was. The best player can be a complete turd and it doesn't matter. When you're down in a series though, the big dogs need to show up, and Matthews did more to hurt them than to help. There's a reason that despite Edmonton getting eliminated in the same round, nobody is talking about changing their core.

Edmonton lose game 1, Mcdrai wins game 2 on their own (4 goals between them). Lose game 3, Mcdrai 3 assists in game 4. They lose game 5, McDavid still puts up 2 goals.

Matthews was pure garbage and he became more and more invisible as the team needed him to just take over a game.

 

[JD1]

Well, as explained, ES adds a lot of noise, which is why most people use 5v5. I can't read minds so when you say

That's what I'm going to reply to.

That's interesting, because you apparently put a lot of value on the 12 pts in 97 mins of non 5v5 ES play that Giroux had. For the record, Tavares only had 4 pts in 72 of those non 5v5 ES mins,

Most of the play is going to be 5v5, not the other ES stuff.


Are those guys on UFA contracts, or contracts signed prior to becoming UFA?

How about this, 197 forwards signed at 27 or older, Tavares was 7th amongst them in scoring this past season. Twenty three of them made 7 mil or more, sixteen 8 mil or more, ten 9 mil or more.

Another way of looking at it is even strength points per 60.

Tavares was 117th.

@BankStreetParade

 

[Micklebot]

Another way of looking at it is even strength points per 60.

Tavares was 117th.

@BankStreetParade

You could do that but you'd run into the same problems I described re 5v5 vs ES having lots of noise, and introduce a new issue of low ice time players like Condodta, Rousek, Giroux (not that one, Damian...) Ect being right at the top despite nobody knowing who they are.

 

[JD1]

How about this then

85th in points per 60 of all forwards that played at least 500 minutes 5 on 5

He's certainly not an elite player 5 on 5 at this point.

You could do that but you'd run into the same problems I described re 5v5 vs ES having lots of noise, and introduce a new issue of low ice time players like Condodta, Rousek, Giroux (not that one, Damian...) Ect being right at the top despite nobody knowing who they are.

 

[Micklebot]

How about this then

85th in points per 60 of all forwards that played at least 500 minutes 5 on 5

He's certainly not an elite player 5 on 5 at this point.

And Giroux, the guy claimed to be far superior is 71st. Were talking about a gap where 5 more 5v5 pts over 82 games would have put Tavares in the top 50, that's within a margin where you could flip a coin and have seen it happen.

In both cases, your still looking at top line production, so hardly something where their 5v5 production hurts their market value. Tavares would certainly garner offers well over 6.5 on the open market, I have zero doubt.

 

[Golden_Jet]

And Giroux, the guy claimed to be far superior is 71st. Were talking about a gap where 5 more 5v5 pts over 82 games would have put Tavares in the top 50, that's within a margin where you could flip a coin and have seen it happen.

In both cases, your still looking at top line production, so hardly something where their 5v5 production hurts their market value. Tavares would certainly garner offers well over 6.5 on the open market, I have zero doubt.

It’s not even a comparison when you look at salaries.

 

[Micklebot]

It’s not even a comparison when you look at salaries.

Not really what the discussion was about but sure.

 

[Mingus Dew]

Looks like Dubas is getting shit canned.

 

[SpezDispenser]

Looks like Dubas is getting shit canned.

Yep. Certainly sounds like it.

The Tavares signing was horrific,

 

[Silencio]

Kyle Dubious record as a GM

 

[HSF]

Dubas is avaliable

he should be on top of our list if Alfie doesn't want to or is not ready to the be president of hockey ops

 

[Adrianopolous]

I want nothing to do with Dubas

 

[HSF]

Looks like Dubas is getting shit canned.

Toronto offered him a contract extension. Sounds like he didn't want to be GM for them anymore

 

[swiftwin]

Dorion > Dubas

Confirmed.