Management GM Pierre Dorion/Front Office Thread - Part IX [Mod Warning in post 1)

[Golden_Jet]

whats with the little brother syndrome around these parts these days

Started with the anti-lead thread.

 

[Icelevel]

Out: Karlsson, Stone, Duchene, Pageau, Hoffman, Dzingel
In: Stützle, Norris, Greig, Kleven, Brannstrom

I don't think it's as far off as you think, in terms of talent in and out. No, not every trade worked out and not every piece hit, but to end up with those young players is pretty good. Most teams that sell off mid-20s stars looking for paydays don't do nearly as well.

I agree that failing to weaponize cap space to acquire mid-round picks + utilizing mid-round picks to get out of mistakes can be criticized, but in terms of the top-end young talent we've acquired during the rebuild, we're in fantastic shape.

And in terms of cheap young talent to fill out the roster, we have plenty on the horizon: Greig, Kleven, Ostapchuk, Boucher, etc, are all safe bets to be 3rd line, 3rd pairing players (aka. we'll get our own Ross Coltons and Blake Colemans).

We don't have any more elite young talent coming - that you're right about.

Any reason zibanejad isn’t there?

 

[JungleBeat]

Eric Tulsky is the best GM candidate on the market.

 

[Golden_Jet]

Eric Tulsky is the best GM candidate on the market.

He’s been an assistant GM for 2 years. Might as well go with Ryan Bowness.

 

[SensHulk]

I am sure if they are spending a billion dollars a deep autopsy of everything in the organization will be done.

I’m sure as well. Just no more Dorion, please.

 

[bert]

Dubas isn't an analytics freak if thats what you were implying. That was just a weirdo stereotype he got because he was super young and was called cutting edge on his come up. He uses every tool to his advantage.

Seems like he didnt have any clue about what to actually add and relied on analytics. The proof is there. He has no real experience he has never been in the battle. He had a long time to surround an all star team and only figured out this trade deadline what they were missing. Then he went overboard and there was too much turnover. He is absolutely analytics driven and its why they havent won anything.

He’s been an assistant GM for 2 years. Might as well go with Ryan Bowness.

Bowness has way more experience than Spezza but people want him for some strange reason.

 

[JungleBeat]

He’s been an assistant GM for 2 years. Might as well go with Ryan Bowness.

I’ll pass on Bowness, doesn’t really have the history of success like Tulsky.

 

[Golden_Jet]

I’ll pass on Bowness, doesn’t really have the history of success like Tulsky.

Guess your going to need to explain some of this success I’m not aware of.

 

[Cosmix]

Eric Tulsky is the best GM candidate on the market.

Why?

 

[Ghost of Jody Hull]

Seems like he didnt have any clue about what to actually add and relied on analytics. The proof is there. He has no real experience he has never been in the battle. He had a long time to surround an all star team and only figured out this trade deadline what they were missing. Then he went overboard and there was too much turnover. He is absolutely analytics driven and its why they havent won anything.

The Leafs haven't lost in the playoffs because they couldn't surround their team of all-stars.

They've lost in the playoffs because their all-stars have disappeared, every time. That's on them, not their teammates.

We have enough of a sample size to know that adding gritty vets in the offseason, or deadline, won't make Marner embrace, or withstand, physical play. It won't make Matthews elevate his intensity.

The Leafs downfall started when they drafted Mitch Marner over Mikko Rantanen and Auston Matthews over Matthew Tkachuk. It's just that nobody knew it back then.

Some guys just don't have it. Alexei Yashin didn't have it, despite being a great regular season player. Mitch and Auston don't have it. Adding all the Nick Folignos, Ryan O'Reillys, Noel Acciairis, Mark Giordanos or Luke Schenns in the world won't change that.

I also don't think Dubas is some hot shot GM. I wouldn't be thrilled if he was hired here. But he's not at the top of the list of the Leafs blame game. There's only so much you can do when your top two players are playoff duds, and let's be real, Shanahan and MLSE would not have allowed Dubas to ever consider trading either of them. They sell too many jerseys. And the top of that organization is perfectly content printing money for 8 months of the year and then heading up to open their Muskoka cottages in early May.

 

[bert]

The Leafs haven't lost in the playoffs because they couldn't surround their team of all-stars.

They've lost in the playoffs because their all-stars have disappeared, every time. That's on them, not their teammates.

We have enough of a sample size to know that adding gritty vets in the offseason, or deadline, won't make Marner embrace, or withstand, physical play. It won't make Matthews elevate his intensity.

The Leafs downfall started when they drafted Mitch Marner over Mikko Rantanen and Auston Matthews over Matthew Tkachuk. It's just that nobody knew it back then.

Some guys just don't have it. Alexei Yashin didn't have it, despite being a great regular season player. Mitch and Auston don't have it. Adding all the Nick Folignos, Ryan O'Reillys, Noel Acciairis, Mark Giordanos or Luke Schenns in the world won't change that.

I also don't think Dubas is some hot shot GM. I wouldn't be thrilled if he was hired here. But he's not at the top of the list of the Leafs blame game. There's only so much you can do when your top two players are playoff duds, and let's be real, Shanahan and MLSE would not have allowed Dubas to ever consider trading either of them. They sell too many jerseys. And the top of that organization is perfectly content printing money for 8 months of the year and then heading up to open their Muskoka cottages in early May.

This is factually incorrect. A blanket statement that is not accurate.

Easy to say in hind sight but there is no way im taking Tkachuk over Matthews at any point even now. Auston Matthews was a better player in that series than Tkachuk was and is a better player. He was good in this years playoffs. So was Nylander.

I dont think Marner is a guy you can win with in the playoffs time to move on from him. I think the leafs are in an identical situation to Florida last year when they decided to move on from Huberdeau. They need a shake up not a tear down.

Dubas has built a team completely on analytics that is easy to play against. Letting physical teams run their show not giving his top guys any room. This year he actually added hard players, they beat Tampa and were in a series against an elite Florida team that all 5 games could have gone either way.

Ryan Oriellys absolutely change that he has a conn smyth and figured into two of the three overtime goals they had against tampa and one game tieng goal.

People said Hossa was soft in the playoffs too he has 3 cups now and 5 finals appearances.

 

[Ghost of Jody Hull]

He has built a team completely on analytics that is easy to play against. Letting physical teams run their show not giving his top guys any room. This year he actually added hard players, they beat Tampa and were in a series against an elite Florida team that all 5 games could have gone either way.

Ryan Oriellys absolutely change that he has a conn smyth and figured into two of the three overtime goals they had against tampa and one game tieng goal.

People said Hossa was soft in the playoffs too he has 3 cups now and 5 finals appearances.

Marner, Matthews and Nylander being extremely easy to play against in the playoffs has nothing to do with analytics. It has to do with them and their disinterest in actually winning.

Hossa went to game 7 of ECF finals with Ottawa when he was 23, a playoff run where he was our best player. Not even close to the same ballpark as those guys.

Matthews 6'3 210lbs. He should dominate. Needing 3rd and 4th liners to create room for him is Yashin-esque.

 

[bert]

Marner, Matthews and Nylander being extremely easy to play against in the playoffs has nothing to do with analytics. It has to do with them.

Hossa went to game 7 of ECF finals with Ottawa when he was 23 where he was the best player. Not even close to the same ballpark as those guys.

Oh, and Ryan O'Reilly was an absolute liability against Florida. He doesn't have the pace to keep up anymore.

This is not true lol. Another inaccurate blanket statement. They werent close to as bad as you are hoping they all were. Lazy analysis.

Orielly was a huge part of the reason they beat Tampa. Its not as black and white as everyone is bad and everyone is good.

I am well aware of Hossa's history. You are actually looking at him objectively you are not looking at the leafs players the same way. You should apply that level of critiquing to players that play on teams you hate as the ones that you love.

 

[Ghost of Jody Hull]

This is not true lol. Another inaccurate blanket statement. They werent close to as bad as you are hoping they all were. Lazy analysis.

Orielly was a huge part of the reason they beat Tampa. Its not as black and white as everyone is bad and everyone is good.

I am well aware of Hossa's history. You are actually looking at him objectively you are not looking at the leafs players the same way. You should apply that level of critiquing to players that play on teams you hate as the ones that you love.

Auston Matthews didn't score a goal against the Panthers. He has the size to assert his will, but he doesn't want to. He's perfectly happy taking snapshots from the perimeter. "Sometimes they go in sometimes they don't. Oh well."

Marner was atrocious. The guy needs to get out of Toronto.

Nylander was definitely the best of the 3, but even he only showed up for 1 period per game. He was dynamite in the 3rd period of game 2. Nowhere to be found in the first 40 minutes though, and it was too late.

The one guy who showed some mettle on that team was Morgan Rielly. If I was Shanahan, the first thing I'd do is strip Tavares of the C and give it to him.

Tavares is a lost cause and I won't even get into to that. If there's one thing that should hang Dubas, it's the decision to give him $11M/year.

 

[bert]

Auston Matthews didn't score a goal against the Panthers. He has the size to assert his will, but he doesn't want to. He's perfectly happy taking snapshots from the perimeter. "Sometimes they go in sometimes they don't. Oh well."

Marner was atrocious. The guy needs to get out of Toronto.

Nylander was definitely the best of the 3, but even he only showed up for 1 period per game.

The one guy who showed some mettle on that team was Morgan Rielly. If I was Shanahan, the first thing I'd do is strip Tavares of the C and give it to him.

Tkachuk didnt score a goal either....

Matthews was good in that series and you noticed him all over the ice. He didnt score no obviously thats dissapointing but he didnt fold like Marner did they arent the same thing.

Nylander was also way better than that. I had bets against the leafs in both series every time he touched the puck he was a threat. He produced and all the numbers back it up. I get you hate the leafs but atleast be critical of the players that were actually bad.

Hossa's first 3 playoffs the sens were ousted and he had 4 points in 14 games. He still competed but wasnt great. The point is players can improve they arent done forever i know in the twitter world of hot takes its easier to get caught up into that but you have to actually watch objectively.

Sens gave up on him and the rest is history. Its a cautionary tale of doing an actual objective analysis of the players and not just go by blanket statements and knee jerk reactions.

 

[Ghost of Jody Hull]

Tkachuk didnt score a goal either....

Matthews was good in that series and you noticed him all over the ice. He didnt score no obviously thats dissapointing but he didnt fold like Marner did they arent the same thing.

Nylander was also way better than that. I had bets against the leafs in both series every time he touched the puck he was a threat. He produced and all the numbers back it up. I get you hate the leafs but atleast be critical of the players that were actually bad.

Hossa's first 3 playoffs the sens were ousted and he had 4 points in 14 games. He still competed but wasnt great. The point is players can improve they arent done forever i know in the twitter world of hot takes its easier to get caught up into that but you have to actually watch objectively.

Sure... the Leafs core has now had 7 playoffs.

Fine I'll debate levels of shittiness.

Marner was by far the worst.

Matthews created some chances, sure, but couldn't score and didn't impose his size at all. You know what the best strategy is when you're getting goalie'd? Go to the net and get greasy. Matthews just accepts it. "Darn, guess the shots aren't going in right now and there's no room out there. Ah well."

Nylander had periods of dynamic play, but was too inconsistent. Show up in the 1st, not the 3rd.

Tavares has lost the legs to keep up in the playoffs. He's useless 5v5 in a high-pace game at this point.

Like I said, Morgan Rielly is really the only guy who showed up every period.

And I don't doubt that a couple of these guys may go on and have playoff success later on, somewhere else. But all of them together as the highest-paid, biggest-minute guys on the same team? It doesn't work.

 

[bert]

Sure... the Leafs core has now had 7 playoffs.

Fine I'll debate levels of shittiness.

Marner was by far the worst.

Matthews created some chances, sure, but couldn't score and didn't impose his size at all. You know what the best strategy is when you're getting goalie'd? Go to the net and get greasy. Matthews just accepts it. "Darn, guess the shots aren't going in right now and there's no room out there. Ah well."

Nylander had periods of dynamic play, but was too inconsistent.

Tavares has lost the legs to keep up in the playoffs. He's useless 5v5 in a high-pace game at this point.

Like I said, Morgan Rielly is really the only guy who showed up every period.

The goal posts are moving... If you held Tkachuk to the same standard you are ripping him too. But you praised him in this very thread he was trash in that series. Probably Floridas 6th or 7th best forward.

No debate about Tavares, Rielly or Marner. But you are off on Matthews and Nylander.

Ill ask you this. Same money Debrincat or Nylander?

 

[Ghost of Jody Hull]

The goal posts are moving... If you held Tkachuk to the same standard you are ripping him too. But you praised him in this very thread he was trash in that series. Probably Floridas 6th or 7th best forward.

No debate about Tavares, Rielly or Marner. But you are off on Matthews and Nylander.

Ill ask you this. Same money Debrincat or Nylander?

I mean I'd take Nylander every day over Debrincat.

And like I said, I don't doubt that a couple of those guys may go on and have playoff success later on, somewhere else. Put Nylander on a line with MacKinnon in Colorado? Probably dynamite.

But all of them together as the highest-paid, biggest-minute guys on the same team? It doesn't work.

So Dubas could have changed to surrounding players all he wanted. But those 4 guys, together, is the issue. It's not the right mix at the top.

And let's be real, the guy making the call on trading any of the core 4 will be Shanahan, not Dubas.

 

[LuckyPierre]

Marner, Matthews and Nylander being extremely easy to play against in the playoffs has nothing to do with analytics. It has to do with them and their disinterest in actually winning.

Hossa went to game 7 of ECF finals with Ottawa when he was 23, a playoff run where he was our best player. Not even close to the same ballpark as those guys.

Matthews 6'3 210lbs. He should dominate. Needing 3rd and 4th liners to create room for him is Yashin-esque.

Yashin-Matthews comparisons are intriguing. I've thought they had similar tendencies for several seasons now. Both centres with nice hands, big frames, and shoot-first mentalities who love to play in the high slot.

Easier to play that style in the regular season, when you face smaller and weaker defences on average, and when the in-game emotion and intensity is generally low.

Playoffs come around, time and space is scarce, and instinctively cutting into the middle is a hazardous strategy. Elimination games especially so, and both have lacked what is required to win in those situations.

Ironically, trading Yashin at the peak of his regular season productivity was a major factor in elevating Ottawa to perennial contender status. If Toronto did the same, they could set themselves up for years to come.

 

[Alf Silfversson]

The goal posts are moving... If you held Tkachuk to the same standard you are ripping him too. But you praised him in this very thread he was trash in that series. Probably Floridas 6th or 7th best forward.

No debate about Tavares, Rielly or Marner. But you are off on Matthews and Nylander.

Ill ask you this. Same money Debrincat or Nylander?

You can go further with Tkachuk. He has had basically one good series and one isolated game in his whole playoff career. It's actually a huge step forward watching his play this year against Boston but the guy has struggled overall in his playoff career. It's not like he's some playoff beast. He's been inconsistent at best but because he's "a physical player" he gets a bit of a pass. He's a still a work in progress.

So are some of the Leafs players, like Matthews, but it's a team game and the Leafs have yet to put together a balanced team. As for Marner I was willing to be patient with him, but watching his smugness in his exit interview would have brought my blood to a boil if I was a Leafs fan.

 

[hockeywiz542]

According to hockey insider Chris Johnston, the MLSE board is finally willing to grant Kyle Dubas a contract extension after declining to do so last summer, but there’s a desire to wrap things up quickly. We’re talking as early as Tuesday or Wednesday, according to sources.

Emotional Dubas leaves future with Maple Leafs in doubt - NorthStar Bets

Without knowing the extent of his family situation – or being able to fully measure the human cost of investing everything he had into being Leafs GM – it seemed at least plausible that Dubas may be burnt out.

And if that’s the case, the 37-year-old should be granted the space and privacy needed to take care of matters far more important than chasing a Stanley Cup.

Except the challenge hanging over this particular situation is time.

The MLSE board is finally willing to grant Dubas a contract extension after declining to do so last summer, but there’s a desire to wrap things up quickly. We’re talking as early as Tuesday or Wednesday, according to sources.

While that makes logistical sense given the volume of looming decisions – making a determination on Sheldon Keefe and his coaching staff, finalizing draft preparations, working out a contract extension with Auston Matthews (and possibly William Nylander), exploring the market for core-altering trades – it’s going to be a tight turnaround for someone in the mindspace we saw Dubas display.

In the event he decides to walk away, as unfathomable as that seems, the Leafs would need to scramble quickly for a Plan B.

Perhaps it’s as simple as promoting assistant general manager Brandon Pridham, who has been with the organization since August 2014 as a salary cap specialist and has since added important responsibilities like taking the lead on contract negotiations. He’s a valued asset that would provide continuity and has been linked to the ongoing Calgary Flames GM search.

Many of the external candidates are well down the road in the process for other job openings, although one that isn’t – recently departed Flames GM Brad Treliving – would likely be of strong interest.

Again, though, we are only a little more than six weeks out from the start of free agency. The timing won’t allow for a comprehensive search.

Notably, Leafs president Brendan Shanahan elected not to join Dubas for Monday’s year-end media availability, which is a significant departure from past practice. Shanahan will speak in the coming days, according to Leafs PR.

 

[JD1]

Matthews and Marner have 32 playoff goals between them in 100 combined playoff games. That's a 26 goal pace per 82. It's just not good enough. Nylander has 17 goals in that same 50 games. Again, not great, but he's not in the same salary neighborhood

There's just no explaining it. They're not producing enough and Toronto's not winning.

Who knows. Maybe one of them pulls a Hossa. Goes elsewhere. Ends up as a 2nd tier offensive player and wins multiple cups.

As for us Sens fans, we should be thankful they don't produce and keep our fingers crossed that they keep the core 4 intact.

 

[BankStreetParade]

Matthews and Marner have 32 playoff goals between them in 100 combined playoff games. That's a 26 goal pace per 82. It's just not good enough. Nylander has 17 goals in that same 50 games. Again, not great, but he's not in the same salary neighborhood

There's just no explaining it. They're not producing enough and Toronto's not winning.

Who knows. Maybe one of them pulls a Hossa. Goes elsewhere. Ends up as a 2nd tier offensive player and wins multiple cups.

As for us Sens fans, we should be thankful they don't produce and keep our fingers crossed that they keep the core 4 intact.

I'm pointing the finger squarely at their $11M AAV captain, who had 1A in 5G against Florida, and is a resource that should be expended, with the money being distributed to acquire real depth.

I don't even know how they begin to offload him, whether he's worth any assets, if there are any teams willing to absorb his cap hit without retention, if they'd have to pay to get rid of him, etc., but he's the most obvious roadblock for that team right now.

I'd actually give the other 4 the benefit of the doubt as they have performed fairly well, all things considered.

[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD]Player[/TD]
[TD]Games Played[/TD]
[TD]Goals[/TD]
[TD]Assists[/TD]
[TD]Points[/TD]
[TD]Points/game[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Matthews[/TD]
[TD]37[/TD]
[TD]17[/TD]
[TD]20[/TD]
[TD]37[/TD]
[TD]1.00[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Marner[/TD]
[TD]37[/TD]
[TD]7[/TD]
[TD]27[/TD]
[TD]34[/TD]
[TD]0.92[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Nylander[/TD]
[TD]37[/TD]
[TD]15[/TD]
[TD]17[/TD]
[TD]32[/TD]
[TD]0.86[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Rielly[/TD]
[TD]37[/TD]
[TD]10[/TD]
[TD]17[/TD]
[TD]27[/TD]
[TD]0.73[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Tavares[/TD]
[TD]31[/TD]
[TD]11[/TD]
[TD]11[/TD]
[TD]22[/TD]
[TD]0.71[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

Then, look at their depth beyond these guys. This is a link to the cumulative playoff stats from 2018-19 until today (nhl.com link) and it's f***ing depressing. With 11 games played, O'Reilly is the 7th leading scorer during that timeframe. Think about how absurd that is. All the meanwhile, they've wrapped an anchor around their neck, with Tavares, and can't figure out why they're drowning.

I suspect Dubas knows what needs to be done and doesn't want to be the one to do it. Or he's handcuffed, for some reason, and can't pull the trigger on this kind of move. Either way, it's their only way out of this mess. I wouldn't make any other changes before they've moved Tavares and figured out what it takes to do that.

 

[bicboi64]

I'm pointing the finger squarely at their $11M AAV captain, who had 1A in 5G against Florida, and is a resource that should be expended, with the money being distributed to acquire real depth.

I don't even know how they begin to offload him, whether he's worth any assets, if there are any teams willing to absorb his cap hit without retention, if they'd have to pay to get rid of him, etc., but he's the most obvious roadblock for that team right now.

100% agree. JT signing handcuffed Toronto from day 1. He's only been worth his caphit his first season. Hope he's never moved though

 

[HoweHullOrr]

It's very comprehensive... and very depressing.

I thought it was interesting. It went into a lot of detail. Nice to have all this detail collected and available & presented in one article.