Management GM Pierre Dorion/Front Office Thread - Part IX [Mod Warning in post 1)

[HoweHullOrr]

I'm pointing the finger squarely at their $11M AAV captain, who had 1A in 5G against Florida, and is a resource that should be expended, with the money being distributed to acquire real depth.

I don't even know how they begin to offload him, whether he's worth any assets, if there are any teams willing to absorb his cap hit without retention, if they'd have to pay to get rid of him, etc., but he's the most obvious roadblock for that team right now.

I'd actually give the other 4 the benefit of the doubt as they have performed fairly well, all things considered.

Player	Games Played	Goals	Assists	Points	Points/game
Matthews	37	17	20	37	1.00
Marner	37	7	27	34	0.92
Nylander	37	15	17	32	0.86
Rielly	37	10	17	27	0.73
Tavares	31	11	11	22	0.71

Then, look at their depth beyond these guys. This is a link to the cumulative playoff stats from 2018-19 until today (nhl.com link) and it's f***ing depressing. With 11 games played, O'Reilly is the 7th leading scorer during that timeframe. Think about how absurd that is. All the meanwhile, they've wrapped an anchor around their neck, with Tavares, and can't figure out why they're drowning.

I suspect Dubas knows what needs to be done and doesn't want to be the one to do it. Or he's handcuffed, for some reason, and can't pull the trigger on this kind of move. Either way, it's their only way out of this mess. I wouldn't make any other changes before they've moved Tavares and figured out what it takes to do that.ow

How would you move Tavares? He has a NMC.

Even if he didn't have the NMC, his contract has heavy signing bonuses.

 

[Masked]

How would you move Tavares? He has a NMC.

Even if he didn't have the NMC, his contract has heavy signing bonuses.

His contract is basically buyout proof this off-season. Buying him out would save a little over 500k in cap space for the next two seasons. That doesn't even cover the cap of a league minimum player to replace him on the roster.

Assen na yo!

 

[Sun God Nika]

Tavares shouldn't even be a part of trade discussions.

Buy out proof contract, playing at home. There is zero incentive for him to waive unless Toronto was forcing him to play in the minors or something wild.

 

[HoweHullOrr]

How would you move Tavares? He has a NMC.

Even if he didn't have the NMC, his contract has heavy signing bonuses.

His contract is basically buyout proof this off-season. Buying him out would save a little over 500k in cap space for the next two seasons. That doesn't even cover the cap of a league minimum player to replace him on the roster.

Assen na yo!

Yep.

Tavares shouldn't even be a part of trade discussions.

Buy out proof contract, playing at home. There is zero incentive for him to waive unless Toronto was forcing him to play in the minors or something wild.

Ya, that NMC - problema muy grande!

 

[BankStreetParade]

How would you move Tavares? He has a NMC.

Even if he didn't have the NMC, his contract has heavy signing bonuses.

I don't know. Keep asking until he feels uncomfortable. Strip him of the captaincy. Bench him every other night. Let the media pile on the pressure. It's not as direct a route to trade as opposed to him not having a NMC but there's gonna be significant pressure applied by the team, the media and fans. How long will he be able to last? Does he want his last good years in the league to be on a team where he feels he's not wanted? Does he want the embarrassment of being stripped of the C? Does he want reporters asking him questions every day like "Based on your performance in the playoffs, why do you think you're the best leader for this team?"

Keep turning the heat up on this guy. He got everything he asked for in his negotiations: term, AAV, trade clause, captaincy. One side fulfilled their obligations in this deal. Break his will to want to stay in Toronto. It's really the only way out of this mess for them.

 

[BankStreetParade]

Tavares shouldn't even be a part of trade discussions.

Buy out proof contract, playing at home. There is zero incentive for him to waive unless Toronto was forcing him to play in the minors or something wild.

He can't be assigned to the minors. The buyout piece is uncertain though because you have to put players on unconditional waivers to start the process but since he has a NMC he can object to waivers. So I'm not sure how that would work?

 

[bicboi64]

Aside from Tavares having to agree to be moved, some teams might be able to benefit from having him since his actual salary ($7.9million) is below his $11 million cap hit. Might help some teams who can't spend to the cap get a top 6 centre in an attempt to be competitive.

Don't think JT will ever waive and hope he never does

 

[JD1]

I'm pointing the finger squarely at their $11M AAV captain, who had 1A in 5G against Florida, and is a resource that should be expended, with the money being distributed to acquire real depth.

I don't even know how they begin to offload him, whether he's worth any assets, if there are any teams willing to absorb his cap hit without retention, if they'd have to pay to get rid of him, etc., but he's the most obvious roadblock for that team right now.

I'd actually give the other 4 the benefit of the doubt as they have performed fairly well, all things considered.

Player	Games Played	Goals	Assists	Points	Points/game
Matthews	37	17	20	37	1.00
Marner	37	7	27	34	0.92
Nylander	37	15	17	32	0.86
Rielly	37	10	17	27	0.73
Tavares	31	11	11	22	0.71

Then, look at their depth beyond these guys. This is a link to the cumulative playoff stats from 2018-19 until today (nhl.com link) and it's f***ing depressing. With 11 games played, O'Reilly is the 7th leading scorer during that timeframe. Think about how absurd that is. All the meanwhile, they've wrapped an anchor around their neck, with Tavares, and can't figure out why they're drowning.

I suspect Dubas knows what needs to be done and doesn't want to be the one to do it. Or he's handcuffed, for some reason, and can't pull the trigger on this kind of move. Either way, it's their only way out of this mess. I wouldn't make any other changes before they've moved Tavares and figured out what it takes to do that.

Well I agree with you about Tavares. But the caveat there is he should be a secondary threat at this point. Surely that was the plan and he is. He's struggling 5 on 5 but helping the PP.

But the big guns aren't getting it done. You can't point at their stats and say they're fine. You have to look at the record. It's not fine. It's far from fine.

Johnny T was never going to outperform that contract but you'd think the brass believe they have the young talent in their prime to win. It doesn't seem to be that the young talent wants it bad enough

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

A lot of parallels to our old teams losing to them. Everything dries up offensively for the big guys when it counts. Even if your D&G isn't great, it's hard to win when your offence dries up.

 

[HoweHullOrr]

I don't know. Keep asking until he feels uncomfortable. Strip him of the captaincy. Bench him every other night. Let the media pile on the pressure. It's not as direct a route to trade as opposed to him not having a NMC but there's gonna be significant pressure applied by the team, the media and fans. How long will he be able to last? Does he want his last good years in the league to be on a team where he feels he's not wanted? Does he want the embarrassment of being stripped of the C? Does he want reporters asking him questions every day like "Based on your performance in the playoffs, why do you think you're the best leader for this team?"

Keep turning the heat up on this guy. He got everything he asked for in his negotiations: term, AAV, trade clause, captaincy. One side fulfilled their obligations in this deal. Break his will to want to stay in Toronto. It's really the only way out of this mess for them.

In your post you said: "Or he's handcuffed, for some reason, and can't pull the trigger on this kind of move". That seemed odd when the reason was so obvious.

 

[DaveMatthew]

Aside from Tavares having to agree to be moved, some teams might be able to benefit from having him since his actual salary ($7.9million) is below his $11 million cap hit. Might help some teams who can't spend to the cap get a top 6 centre in an attempt to be competitive.

Don't think JT will ever waive and hope he never does

The Leafs best bet would be to, as @BankStreetParade mentioned, try and publicly embarrass Tavares to the point where he's so angry that he agrees to waive.

Post July 1st, a team could actually acquire JT an only owe him ~$8M over 2 seasons, because he has a bonus coming his way at the start of the summer. The Leafs would happily pay it and move him.

At that rate, a team like Anaheim would probably take him on. He can still score 30G and 70P, and help their young players. Plus, the OC is a much nicer place to live than Etobicoke.

 

[Cosmix]

The Leafs best bet would be to, as @BankStreetParade mentioned, try and publicly embarrass Tavares to the point where he's so angry that he agrees to waive.

Post July 1st, a team could actually acquire JT an only owe him ~$8M over 2 seasons, because he has a bonus coming his way at the start of the summer. The Leafs would happily pay it and move him.

At that rate, a team like Anaheim would probably take him on. He can still score 30G and 70P, and help their young players. Plus, the OC is a much nicer place to live than Etobicoke.

Before "embarrasing Tavares", I think Toronto would discuss with him and his agent the club's desire to trade him to another team and seek his approval to do so to a limited list of teams of his choice. An appropriate rationale would be put forward such as changes need to be made to improve the team due to the playoff losses. If he does not agree to that, then I suspect the team would advise him that they were going to take some other sort of action (e.g., benching, scratched from lineup, paid to stay home, whatever else might be allowed under his contract and league rules) to put some pressure on him. I think he would eventually agree to be traded IF the team determines that he is the player that has to go.

 

[Hockeysawks]

Seems like he didnt have any clue about what to actually add and relied on analytics. The proof is there. He has no real experience he has never been in the battle. He had a long time to surround an all star team and only figured out this trade deadline what they were missing. Then he went overboard and there was too much turnover. He is absolutely analytics driven and its why they havent won anything.


Bowness has way more experience than Spezza but people want him for some strange reason.

He traded all he could for ROR, a crazy slow center that they had zero need for. It was even more pointless then when he signed JT. He has seriously learned nothing.

 

[bert]

He traded all he could for ROR, a crazy slow center that they had zero need for. It was even more pointless then when he signed JT. He has seriously learned nothing.

Orielly was the reason they beat Tampa lol. He's exactly what they needed.

 

[JD1]

Before "embarrasing Tavares", I think Toronto would discuss with him and his agent the club's desire to trade him to another team and seek his approval to do so to a limited list of teams of his choice. An appropriate rationale would be put forward such as changes need to be made to improve the team due to the playoff losses. If he does not agree to that, then I suspect the team would advise him that they were going to take some other sort of action (e.g., benching, scratched from lineup, paid to stay home, whatever else might be allowed under his contract and league rules) to put some pressure on him. I think he would eventually agree to be traded IF the team determines that he is the player that has to go.

Toronto is in a real pickle with JT. He's still very much an NHL player, he's just not an 11 AAV player. He has complete control of his situation.

So what's he worth it he was a UFA? 6 AAV? So what can Toronto do to shed that contract and be better? Pick a team with cap space. Anaheim. So they trade him to Anaheim and give up something of value to Anaheim to reflect that JT is really only a 6AAV player. Then they need to replace him. How? ROR? Idk. They're in a pickle.

And screw Dubas. He signed pajama boy. He signed the inflated Matthews and Marner contracts.

Orielly was the reason they beat Tampa lol. He's exactly what they needed.

Vasilevsky was a big reason they beat Tampa. Hard to win a playoff series when your goalie posts an 875 save percentage

But yes, ROR played well for Toronto

 

[Micklebot]

Toronto is in a real pickle with JT. He's still very much an NHL player, he's just not an 11 AAV player. He has complete control of his situation.

So what's he worth it he was a UFA? 6 AAV? So what can Toronto do to shed that contract and be better? Pick a team with cap space. Anaheim. So they trade him to Anaheim and give up something of value to Anaheim to reflect that JT is really only a 6AAV player. Then they need to replace him. How? ROR? Idk. They're in a pickle.

What....

I agree JT isn't an 11 mil player, but 6? He was a pt per game playing on the second line, 14th highest scoring center in the league. If you get him at 6 that seems pretty team friendly to me, especially if we're talking as a UFA.

Look at it this way, he's 3 years younger than Giroux who hadn't been producing as well, plays a less important position and got 6.5. Giroux also really seemed like he was not exactly searching for the top bidder... At 32, Backstrom extended in 2020 after two ~70 pts seasons at 9.2 mil, Stastny signed at 6.5 at 32 in 2018, after a few yrs of putting up numbers in the high 40s low 50s (he was injured some of those years)

Not a lot of compatible guys in terms of age and production, but I think you're undervaluing his value on the market (which may very well be the smart move, but that's a different argument), I suspect he'd be in the low 8 range depending on term

 

[BankStreetParade]

In your post you said: "Or he's handcuffed, for some reason, and can't pull the trigger on this kind of move". That seemed odd when the reason was so obvious.

Well, we've heard rumours in the media that Dubas and Shanahan don't see eye to eye on certain things. Maybe Shanahan isn't allowing Dubas to explore trade options for Tavares? Maybe he isn't giving him the latitude to re-assign the captaincy to someone else? There could be lots of reasons there that are not related to Tavares' seemingly bulletproof contract.

 

[BankStreetParade]

What....

I agree JT isn't an 11 mil player, but 6? He was a pt per game playing on the second line, 14th highest scoring center in the league. If you get him at 6 that seems pretty team friendly to me, especially if we're talking as a UFA.

Look at it this way, he's 3 years younger than Giroux who hadn't been producing as well, plays a less important position and got 6.5. Giroux also really seemed like he was not exactly searching for the top bidder... At 32, Backstrom extended in 2020 after two ~70 pts seasons at 9.2 mil, Stastny signed at 6.5 at 32 in 2018, after a few yrs of putting up numbers in the high 40s low 50s (he was injured some of those years)

Not a lot of compatible guys in terms of age and production, but I think you're undervaluing his value on the market (which may very well be the smart move, but that's a different argument), I suspect he'd be in the low 8 range depending on term

I think a caveat in determining his current contract value is the fact that he was T46 among centers in EVP and T86 if you expand it to all skaters. If you compare him more directly to Giroux, I'm not sure there's really much of an argument that he's worth more than 6.5M AAV right now, especially considering Giroux vastly outproduced him at 5v5.

But UFA has a way of skewing real values, so I could see him, on an open market, getting up to 8M AAV from someone. But I honestly think he'd be hard-pressed to find that many suitors at that number, and it would most likely be a top bid from a middle to below average team.

 

[Micklebot]

I think a caveat in determining his current contract value is the fact that he was T46 among centers in EVP and T86 if you expand it to all skaters. If you compare him more directly to Giroux, I'm not sure there's really much of an argument that he's worth more than 6.5M AAV right now, especially considering Giroux vastly outproduced him at 5v5.

But UFA has a way of skewing real values, so I could see him, on an open market, getting up to 8M AAV from someone. But I honestly think he'd be hard-pressed to find that many suitors at that number, and it would most likely be a top bid from a middle to below average team.

Well, to be fair, I think it's pretty clear that Giroux outproduced his contract this year, and it's also lower in part due to an expected regression due to age over the term of the deal. Also not sure why pp pts shouldn't count for Tavares, but vastly outproduced Tavares at 5v5 is fairly easily debunked, 5 pts separate the two 5v5 and it becomes tighter if you factor in TOI, with Giroux playing a bit more than Tavares

And again, Giroux got his contract based on the prior years, not this season, so you need to base the market on that.

 

[DaveMatthew]

What....

I agree JT isn't an 11 mil player, but 6? He was a pt per game playing on the second line, 14th highest scoring center in the league. If you get him at 6 that seems pretty team friendly to me, especially if we're talking as a UFA.

Look at it this way, he's 3 years younger than Giroux who hadn't been producing as well, plays a less important position and got 6.5. Giroux also really seemed like he was not exactly searching for the top bidder... At 32, Backstrom extended in 2020 after two ~70 pts seasons at 9.2 mil, Stastny signed at 6.5 at 32 in 2018, after a few yrs of putting up numbers in the high 40s low 50s (he was injured some of those years)

Not a lot of compatible guys in terms of age and production, but I think you're undervaluing his value on the market (which may very well be the smart move, but that's a different argument), I suspect he'd be in the low 8 range depending on term

There are a some other things that have to be factored in:

• Tavares was 48th among C in even strength points last year (41 pts in 80 games), 84th among F. His PPG numbers are skewed due to playing on a regular season PP with Marner and Matthews.
• Giroux, in his last year in PHI/FLA, had 42 even strength points in 75 games, so his production was on par if not slightly better (considering he was on a significantly worse team for most of the season)
• While Giroux isn't the fleetest of foot, Tavares is even worse. Neither guys are playing C moving forward.
• From what was said by "insiders" at the time of the signing, Giroux's contract with us did include the "Ottawa tax" (in the words of Jamie McLennan). So while Giroux did want to come back here, we did make it worth his while by paying more than other teams would have.

As a UFA, I think Tavares gets between 5.5M-6.5M AAV (similar to Giroux and Pavelski). Nobody is paying him in the low 8's.

With that said, after his bonus is paid out on July 1st, Tavares will be owed $8.86M over the next two seasons. So if they did convince him to waive his NMC, I don't think it'd be hard to trade him to a team like Anaheim, who'd probably be happy to have him at ~$4.4M per season. The cap hit doesn't matter to them.

 

[Hockeysawks]

Orielly was the reason they beat Tampa lol. He's exactly what they needed.

Tampa sucking for half a season, having injured players and having terrible goaltending is why they lost. Go watch the goal that ended the series against Florida its 100% on ROR. Then watch his attempt to skate back. It's ugly
He also got zero points in games 5 and 6 so no he is not the reason they beat anyone.

 

[JD1]

What....

I agree JT isn't an 11 mil player, but 6? He was a pt per game playing on the second line, 14th highest scoring center in the league. If you get him at 6 that seems pretty team friendly to me, especially if we're talking as a UFA.

Look at it this way, he's 3 years younger than Giroux who hadn't been producing as well, plays a less important position and got 6.5. Giroux also really seemed like he was not exactly searching for the top bidder... At 32, Backstrom extended in 2020 after two ~70 pts seasons at 9.2 mil, Stastny signed at 6.5 at 32 in 2018, after a few yrs of putting up numbers in the high 40s low 50s (he was injured some of those years)

Not a lot of compatible guys in terms of age and production, but I think you're undervaluing his value on the market (which may very well be the smart move, but that's a different argument), I suspect he'd be in the low 8 range depending on term

Ya, I probably am undervaluing him. The flip side is more than half the points are on the PP and he really hasn't been effective 5 on 5 despite shut down D playing against Matthews.

If he was a UFA today, I'm not sure what he'd get.

 

[Big Muddy]

Can't see Tavares waiving his NMC and agreeing to be moved. Toronto was his ideal destination, and his wife is from there and works there.

Leafs got greedy and snatched up the big fish free agent in 2018 just 2 years after drafting Matthews. Cleverness is good, but patience is better. What they needed more at that time was a good RD which would have cost a lot less.

Oh well, their plight & cap woes are good for our Senators.

 

[BankStreetParade]

Well, to be fair, I think it's pretty clear that Giroux outproduced his contract this year, and it's also lower in part due to an expected regression due to age over the term of the deal. Also not sure why pp pts shouldn't count for Tavares, but vastly outproduced Tavares at 5v5 is fairly easily debunked, 5 pts separate the two 5v5 and it becomes tighter if you factor in TOI, with Giroux playing a bit more than Tavares

And again, Giroux got his contract based on the prior years, not this season, so you need to base the market on that.

How does 54 to 41 equal a difference of 5? Maybe you're referencing incorrect numbers?

In coming up with a valuation for his contract, I'm not only looking at the 3.5 minutes per game the guy plays on one of the most productive PP units in the league, I'm considering what he's doing to drive play the majority of his TOI which comes at even strength. In that regard, he was 46th among centers this year and 86th among all skaters. If you build a comp for him as a hypothetical free agent this year, based on his peers, he's a midlevel 2C according to his EVP production and a PP specialist Top 6F, and should be compensated at a level commensurate with that calibre of player.

I took a snapshot of players over 28, tabulated the average cap hit for the top 20 p/gp and came back with a result of $7.67M. He's 13th on the list. The average for the same group from 11-20 is $7.1725M. So if I had to place a fair estimate on his comps, based on both his age and production, I would assume his real value is somewhere between those 2 numbers. Maybe he pushes to 8 if someone gets desperate? But it seems likely he's closer to the $7M mark than the $8M mark.

 

[Micklebot]

How does 54 to 41 equal a difference of 5? Maybe you're referencing incorrect numbers?

You said 5v5, Tavares had 37, Giroux 42.

Did you maybe mean ES? With ES you might have wide discrepancy in 3v3, 4v4 you, also not sure if your numbers introduce EN situations which again has the potential to skew things.