Raccoon Jesus
We were right there
Have death rates been steadily increasing? I was trying to find some data on day to day increases and wasn't able to. I did find that hospitalization rates have remained shockingly stable though.
As a rolling average, yes. We may be peaking in regards to that, but we certainly haven't started the downslope yet.
COVID-19/Coronavirus Live Updates With Credible Sources in US and Canada | 1Point3Acres
The worst day we had so far was 4/22 but we've had several 80 and 90+s since then.
Of course as you point out, data recording is all over the map.
I think there are a couple of issues here. The first is anyone who is tested positive for covd is being listed as a covid death. I've seen reports of overdoses and car accidents being counted. Secondly, what role did covid play in a patient dying? Since this affects nursing homes the most, nearly all patients who passed have a long list of complications. Did a patient with renal failure and end stage cancer pass due to covid? If this is as wide spread as most think, there are going to be a lot of natural deaths ending with people testing positive for the disease, should all of those be counted?
Again, if this spreads as quickly as some imagine it could, the death curve number could continue to rise just based on the fact that many have it.
But i mean, where do you draw the line? Why does everyone have a problem labeling it as a Covid death if they die during the couple of weeks they have the virus? If there was some evidence that covid itself isn't an issue I'd understand, but there's zero point to going to a nursing home, realizing that 20 people died with covid, and going "well, Bob died of fever, Susan died of kidney failure, John of respiratory failure, and all of them had Covid...but let's not check that box." When you have 20-30 people dying in the same month, yes, you look at the comorbidities, but it would be completely foolish to erase Covid--and again this is consistent with medical reporting for the last many years.
The signal-to-noise ratio of a car accident to covid deaths being recorded is extremely low, especially in the face of the idea that we're likely underrecording things as well.
Lastly, I don't think this should be just a case of suck it up. It's not people being whiny, this lockdown has tangible consequences and extending it 2 weeks will cause harm. If there is no goal to the lockdown anymore and we are eventually going to open up, then postponing it 2 weeks means you are causing unnecessary harm.
I agree, and as you saw, my complaint is that it's all indefinite. But that two week number wasn't arbitrary, it was linked to the Phase 2 criteria, that of we need to be over the curve hump to start reopening. We MIGHT be there, but as of at least yesterday deaths are still rising--reopening in the face of rising deaths without proven treatment options or even effective testing/tracing (sounds like LA county is getting there at least?), then everything we did for the last month is nice, but could be sabotaged. When I say "just suck it up" that would be in reference to the hypothetical scenario where we ARE on the downslope, just hang in there for two more weeks then we can push forward.
But with deaths still rising, and cases still rising (likely related to testing), opening everything up right now stands a chance of causing BIGGER economic problems than staying put for another week. I'll just have to respectfully disagree with anyone who thinks otherwise, I guess. It sounds like we're in agreement though that there needs to be a more definite goal. I didn't at all like that Newsom didn't put any dates on anything. I kind of get why, but that departs from his previous stances and moves more towards the on-a-whim moves by other governors. If he's just going to proceed like this without a real concrete plan, then yeah, f*** it, open it all up, because that's shitty leadership and we're on our own anyway.