General COVID-19 talk, NHL remains suspended MOD Warning post #1

[HeadInjury]

April 30, 2020: The day New York decided to end 24-hour service of the subway.

Coronavirus live updates: NYC pauses 24-hour subway service, funeral home blasted for storing corpses in vans

New York City is suspending 24-hour subway service to disinfect subway cars during the coronavirus crisis, Mayor Bill de Blasio and Gov. Andrew Cuomo announced Thursday.

“They (MTA) can disinfect all trains and buses every night, it can best be done by stopping train service from 1 a.m. to 5 a.m. every night during the pandemic so they can actually perform this service,” Cuomo said at a news briefing.

How the f*** did it take them this long to figure this out? I'm starting to think that all Cuomo deserves credit for is he is well spoken at press conferences. Mass transit is ground zero of the spread of the virus in New York. They didn't even tell people to wear masks on the subway until April 15. And they are sending patients with COVID-19 back to their death camps, excuse me, their nursing homes.

I have to assume they were doing disinfecting prior to now in some fashion. But the subway should be open for as little as possible. Overnight service certainly wasn't necessary in the middle of this crisis.

 

[tny760]

no matter how much i question newsom i rest easy at night knowing de blasio and cuomo aren't running california

jesus christ on a cracker

 

[Bandit]

Governor Newsom has now closed all beaches in California. Time for a healthy dose of civil disobedience. Los Angeles County is the lone remaining hot spot in California, and it is primarily in the densely populated areas of Los Angeles. Newsom says it's all about "science", but he isn't using science in this one size fits all decree.

He has a daily news conference, yet refuses to appear before reporters to answer legitimate questions regarding the way this is being handled. Instead, he conducts the news conference via telephone and has his minions screen out reporters he considers to be troublemakers.

It is time to reassess the strategy, not double down on one which is wrecking the economy and the lives of healthy individuals. What will be the long term health effects related to the stress caused by the financial difficulties this has created?

We know government which has oversight over nursing homes has failed miserably in regulating these institutions, which is where 40%-50% of the deaths are occurring. Yet these numbers are never discussed by Newsom.

Not a fan of a widespread order like this either, but beaches aren’t exactly an economic needle mover. If you wanna say a blanket order like this is stupid that’s fine, but every single thing doesn’t have to be (and isn’t) about every single thing.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

People in nursing homes are getting sick by coming in contact with workers and family members who bring COVID-19 to them. Lock down the nursing home workers. Do not allow visitors to the nursing home until this gets sorted out, but do not shut down the entire economy over a small sliver of the population which needs tighter controls. Perhaps if state governments applied resources to problematic areas the numbers would drop significantly.

They can't help themselves? You just don't allow it. POSTED: This facility is closed to all visitors until further notice. Done.

I get "Florida silliness in general" is a thing, but let's not discount how ridiculous most Americans outside California feel this state is when it comes to being over regulated and taxed.

Of course. And how are THEY getting it?

Isn't "You just don't allow it" the major complaint above? So I can go party with 1000s of people at the beach but not see my elderly dad?

I'm being deliberately obtuse on the second point, obviously it's important to lock down the more vulnerable populations, especially knowing what we know re: nursing homes. And video calling is a thing. I've been with you all along about that. But I think "one size fits all" is the approach you HAVE to take throughout the state, otherwise you'll get four counties of people trying to pack Newport beach. It's important to have consistency of message and cohesion of purpose and that's getting shaky and I'm not really sure why. Like, what's changed between a week ago and today that suddenly people NEED to go to the beach or they're out of freedom?

Jobs? I get it. Beaches? What a hill to quite literally die on. And to potentially kill other while you're at it.

 

[tny760]

Coronavirus live updates: NYC pauses 24-hour subway service, funeral home blasted for storing corpses in vans

didn't fully read this til now, a funeral home storing decomposing bodies in an unrefrigerated van on the street. wonderful. i get that at some point, you kinda dehumanize people when dealing with bodies all day but jesus christ have some decency

 

[The Tikkanen]

I'm no expert on pandemics but if thousands head to the beach this weekend isn't the next step declaring martial law, tanks on the streets?

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

From Fauci:

""You can't just leap over things and get into a situation where you're really tempting a rebound," he said. "That's the thing I get concerned about. I hope they don't do that."
Fauci said states should follow federal guidelines and only begin to reopen if they have a two-week decline in the number of new COVID-19 cases. He cautioned that states must have the capability of identifying, isolating and contact tracing people who test positive because "there will be blips — there’s no doubt."

We're on the back end of the worst two weeks in the state.



But on the good news aisle:

Covid-19 vaccine effectiveness could be known in less than six weeks

Could have vaccine deployed a bit by September

 

[Bandit]

Like, what's changed between a week ago and today that suddenly people NEED to go to the beach or they're out of freedom?

Simple: “It got warm and I wanna”

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

I'm no expert on pandemics but if thousands head to the beach this weekend isn't the next step declaring martial law, tanks on the streets?

I think there's a large step between "the beach is closed" and "Tiananmen Square, but Main Street HB" where a surfbro with a raised F150 throws Coors Light cans at gov't humvees.

 

[tny760]

I'm no expert on pandemics but if thousands head to the beach this weekend isn't the next step declaring martial law, tanks on the streets?

i remember leaving lowes jeez, musta been early march with my sister and this dude next to us in the parking lot is screaming in his phone about how "THERE'S GONNA BE MARTIAL LAW BY FRIDAY"

pulled outta that bitch so fast to avoid laughing in his face

 

[Fishhead]

The CDC estimates deaths this flu season being between 24,000 – 62,000. So the mid-point is 43,000.

With the new job numbers out today, 30,000,000 people have lost their job in the last 5 or 6 weeks. There's almost 500 jobs lost for every death. This isn't sustainable and will lead to more deaths on its own due to increased suicides, drug overdoses, domestic violence etc. The idea of keeping the same shutdown orders in place for another month might make sense in the New York City area, but elsewhere it is crazy. Politicians need to have the guts to find that balance between battling the pandemic and saving the economy, even though less restrictive social distancing rules will undoubtedly lead to more cases and more deaths.

I see the suicide argument a lot, but the data just don't support that. We won't know if there will be more suicides and other types of death due to COVID for several years. There may be a nominal increase, but it's not going to be much. For the sake of argument, let's say it doubles, which would be a dramatic increase. This would be a rise of around 2 per 100,000 people. The great depression caused a rise of 6 people per 100,000 which has never been approached since. In New York, the COVID death rate is 90 per 100,000.

It's also looking like COVID deaths are being under reported substantially. There does have to be a rule rollback though, and I'm happy I'm in California which is well positioned. It would suck to be in one of the hotspots.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

i remember leaving lowes jeez, musta been early march with my sister and this dude next to us in the parking lot is screaming in his phone about how "THERE'S GONNA BE MARTIAL LAW BY FRIDAY"

pulled outta that bitch so fast to avoid laughing in his face

One of my best friends is a Costco higher up and he had to deal with a police report already over their mask enforcement which doesn't even start till Monday

Allegedly a dude walked in with a mask, made a show about ripping it off and spitting on the shoes of the card greeter person while yelling about everyone better start bearing arms because the military is coming and masks are how you will know people aren't with the resistance so they should be fired on

Stupid people gonna find a way to be stupid no matter what

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

I see the suicide argument a lot, but the data just don't support that. We won't know if there will be more suicides and other types of death due to COVID for several years. There may be a nominal increase, but it's not going to be much. For the sake of argument, let's say it doubles, which would be a dramatic increase. This would be a rise of around 2 per 100,000 people. The great depression caused a rise of 6 people per 100,000 which has never been approached since. In New York, the COVID death rate is 90 per 100,000.

It's also looking like COVID deaths are being under reported substantially. There does have to be a rule rollback though, and I'm happy I'm in California which is well positioned. It would suck to be in one of the hotspots.

I think there are almost certainly mental health concerns with this whole thing, but people are talking out of both sides of their mouth when they say 'just the flu' or ignore the data period while on the other side they talk about a rise in suicides.

 

[KINGS17]

Of course. And how are THEY getting it?

Isn't "You just don't allow it" the major complaint above? So I can go party with 1000s of people at the beach but not see my elderly dad?

I'm being deliberately obtuse on the second point, obviously it's important to lock down the more vulnerable populations, especially knowing what we know re: nursing homes. And video calling is a thing. I've been with you all along about that. But I think "one size fits all" is the approach you HAVE to take throughout the state, otherwise you'll get four counties of people trying to pack Newport beach. It's important to have consistency of message and cohesion of purpose and that's getting shaky and I'm not really sure why. Like, what's changed between a week ago and today that suddenly people NEED to go to the beach or they're out of freedom?

Jobs? I get it. Beaches? What a hill to quite literally die on. And to potentially kill other while you're at it.

There is a time and a place for strict government orders. Right now, nursing homes are one of them, and public beaches are not. People are not partying with thousands of people on the beach. They are going in small groups, keeping their distance, and they are in the sunshine and open air which scientists have proven does not allow the virus to live but for a short period of time.

I have more faith in the common sense of people than you. People are not going to pack a single beach, especially if all of the beaches are open. Many will choose to remain home, especially if they have to care for someone elderly. If over crowding at the beach becomes a thing, then attendance can be limited.

We have a fundamental disagreement. We don't need Gavin Newsom being every adult's daddy and telling us no one can go outside today just because he says so. He isn't acting on the data. The data shows in small groups, properly distanced, in the open air and sunshine there are relatively no issues. If you want to point to the beach going in Florida early on, I would be willing to bet most of the virus transmission occurred in the hotels where the kids were staying and due to other activities where they were in close quarters in large numbers for extended periods of time.

 

[The Tikkanen]

I think there's a large step between "the beach is closed" and "Tiananmen Square, but Main Street HB" where a surfbro with a raised F150 throws Coors Light cans at gov't humvees.

It would make for interesting TV. Brad's and Wyatt's vs the military.

 

[HookKing]

no matter how much i question newsom i rest easy at night knowing de blasio and cuomo aren't running california

jesus christ on a cracker

Will you be resting easy when Nuisance empties the jails of criminals to be filled with beach goers?

 

[jfont]

The CDC estimates deaths this flu season being between 24,000 – 62,000. So the mid-point is 43,000.

This is not accurate as my previous link stated.
In the last six flu seasons, the CDC’s reported number of actual confirmed flu deaths—that is, counting flu deaths the way we are currently counting deaths from the coronavirus—has ranged from 3,448 to 15,620, which far lower than the numbers commonly repeated by public officials and even public health experts.

Spike in US deaths and cases flagged as pneumonia suggests even greater COVID-19 impact
"When we begin to look at it retrospectively, it's going to help discern, or maybe develop a more accurate estimate of what the true number of deaths might have been from COVID-19,” said Dr. Matthew Boulton, a professor at the University of Michigan School of Public Health who also serves as Editor-in-Chief for the American Journal of Preventive Medicine.

 

[tny760]

Will you be resting easy when Nuisance empties the jails of criminals to be filled with beach goers?

i don't think that's a reasonable assumption to make but that's your opinion

 

[KINGS17]

I see the suicide argument a lot, but the data just don't support that. We won't know if there will be more suicides and other types of death due to COVID for several years. There may be a nominal increase, but it's not going to be much. For the sake of argument, let's say it doubles, which would be a dramatic increase. This would be a rise of around 2 per 100,000 people. The great depression caused a rise of 6 people per 100,000 which has never been approached since. In New York, the COVID death rate is 90 per 100,000.

It's also looking like COVID deaths are being under reported substantially. There does have to be a rule rollback though, and I'm happy I'm in California which is well positioned. It would suck to be in one of the hotspots.

This could very well be the case, but again I would hazard a guess that this is among the elderly with many underlying health conditions. How do you classify co-morbidity, cases, because assigning them to COVID-19 as the sole cause is not correct.

 

[HeadInjury]

This is not accurate as my previous link stated.
In the last six flu seasons, the CDC’s reported number of actual confirmed flu deaths—that is, counting flu deaths the way we are currently counting deaths from the coronavirus—has ranged from 3,448 to 15,620, which far lower than the numbers commonly repeated by public officials and even public health experts.

Spike in US deaths and cases flagged as pneumonia suggests even greater COVID-19 impact
"When we begin to look at it retrospectively, it's going to help discern, or maybe develop a more accurate estimate of what the true number of deaths might have been from COVID-19,” said Dr. Matthew Boulton, a professor at the University of Michigan School of Public Health who also serves as Editor-in-Chief for the American Journal of Preventive Medicine.

My source is the CDC.

Preliminary In-Season 2019-2020 Flu Burden Estimates

 

[jfont]

My source is the CDC.

Preliminary In-Season 2019-2020 Flu Burden Estimates

If you read the analysis, the CDC used estimates and that the figures did not come close to actual number.

 

[crassbonanza]

I completely understood the idea behind the lockdown when it was put in place. There was a novel disease ravaging China that we had little to no information about. The Imperial college released a projection showing 2.5 million US deaths(which turned out to be based on data from a withdrawn paper) and a decision needed to be made. I do believe that a lockdown probably should have been a last resort, but I do not fault anyone for making the call to shut everything down. What I do not get is the doubling down by certain governors now that the curve has been bent and we have more information that show that this is a less deadly disease that has a very specific high risk population. Newsome over riding local governments and shutting down beaches makes absolutely no sense at this moment and his insistence that we are children to be punished for not listening to him has really started to piss me off.

At this point I don't know what the goal of the continued lockdown is, there are broad benchmarks that are open for interpretation and most are seemingly set up to fail. At the same time we are asking for a 14 day decrease in new case and asking for an increase in testing. We know now that it is way more widespread, so increased testing is going to show an increase in new cases which means that until we can test the entire population we are not likely accomplish this 14 day decrease goal. The adding of restrictions despite an underwhelemed healthcare system that is laying off employees at a high rate just seems punitive to me.

I just feel that the lockdown has become more about optics than actually saving lives at this point. Oncologists everywhere have been discussing the alarmingly low rate of cancer diagnoses since the lockdown has shut down non essential healthcare. Austria showed a significant increase in heart attack deaths from people scared to go to the hospital to get care, with some claiming there were more of those than Covid 19 deaths. That doesn't even get into the other dangers from mental health to our food supply chain breaking. I dislike that the lockdown is being presented as a completely safe option with no repercussions other than people have to just stay home and watch TV. It is this moral black and white situation we set up that is allowing the governors to continue to bring forth new rules and extend their emergency powers indefinitely.

 

[Fishhead]

The lockdown is a pain in the ass, and there is no clear direction to go really. It might be a no-win situation, who knows.

There is one single thing that would have rendered all of the analysis and decisions we have to make moot, and that is testing. The ONLY way to make an informed decision is to have data, and without knowing who has what, it's always going to be guesswork. Our government failed us big time and now we all bear the consequences. Hearing about how testing would be widespread, and now the "5 million tests" fiasco is just a bunch of lip service. They f'd up and that's it. If we knew who was infected, who hasn't been, and who was previously, the stay at home orders would largely go away.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

There is a time and a place for strict government orders. Right now, nursing homes are one of them, and public beaches are not. People are not partying with thousands of people on the beach. They are going in small groups, keeping their distance, and they are in the sunshine and open air which scientists have proven does not allow the virus to live but for a short period of time.

I have more faith in the common sense of people than you. People are not going to pack a single beach, especially if all of the beaches are open. Many will choose to remain home, especially if they have to care for someone elderly. If over crowding at the beach becomes a thing, then attendance can be limited.

We have a fundamental disagreement. We don't need Gavin Newsom being every adult's daddy and telling us no one can go outside today just because he says so. He isn't acting on the data. The data shows in small groups, properly distanced, in the open air and sunshine there are relatively no issues. If you want to point to the beach going in Florida early on, I would be willing to bet most of the virus transmission occurred in the hotels where the kids were staying and due to other activities where they were in close quarters in large numbers for extended periods of time.

To the first boldfaced, yeah, totally fair. I think individuals have common sense, but I think groups are collective turds. And like I said above, either close all beaches or open all beaches, I'm not sure I agree with the second yet but that's a much better option than closing some. The data I think Newsom is acting on right now is that new deaths are still continually rising and we were waiting for a two-week reprieve before moving to Phase 2. To me, that's reasonable.

This could very well be the case, but again I would hazard a guess that this is among the elderly with many underlying health conditions. How do you classify co-morbidity, cases, because assigning them to COVID-19 as the sole cause is not correct.

Well, it's a similar thing with cancer and autoimmune diseases, as examples, no? "complications from x" is the primary cause of death. A Covid-19 positive young adult having a stroke is going to have the cause of death listed as Covid-19 and that's how it's been for at least half a century and shouldn't be controversial.

I completely understood the idea behind the lockdown when it was put in place. There was a novel disease ravaging China that we had little to no information about. The Imperial college released a projection showing 2.5 million US deaths(which turned out to be based on data from a withdrawn paper) and a decision needed to be made. I do believe that a lockdown probably should have been a last resort, but I do not fault anyone for making the call to shut everything down. What I do not get is the doubling down by certain governors now that the curve has been bent and we have more information that show that this is a less deadly disease that has a very specific high risk population. Newsome over riding local governments and shutting down beaches makes absolutely no sense at this moment and his insistence that we are children to be punished for not listening to him has really started to piss me off.

At this point I don't know what the goal of the continued lockdown is, there are broad benchmarks that are open for interpretation and most are seemingly set up to fail. At the same time we are asking for a 14 day decrease in new case and asking for an increase in testing. We know now that it is way more widespread, so increased testing is going to show an increase in new cases which means that until we can test the entire population we are not likely accomplish this 14 day decrease goal. The adding of restrictions despite an underwhelemed healthcare system that is laying off employees at a high rate just seems punitive to me.

I just feel that the lockdown has become more about optics than actually saving lives at this point. Oncologists everywhere have been discussing the alarmingly low rate of cancer diagnoses since the lockdown has shut down non essential healthcare. Austria showed a significant increase in heart attack deaths from people scared to go to the hospital to get care, with some claiming there were more of those than Covid 19 deaths. That doesn't even get into the other dangers from mental health to our food supply chain breaking. I dislike that the lockdown is being presented as a completely safe option with no repercussions other than people have to just stay home and watch TV. It is this moral black and white situation we set up that is allowing the governors to continue to bring forth new rules and extend their emergency powers indefinitely.

To your second point, yeah, it would seem contradictory to both increase testing and ask for fewer cases. But I would imagine, as I mentioned above, keeping an eye on the death curve would be an important metric to go along with infection rates vs. tests.

To your third, I'd agree due to the indefinite nature of things now. If it were going to be two more weeks like I said, everyone needs to just suck it up. But two more months would be a disaster. At some point you would just have to hope for a random miracle breakthrough, and I realize our discussions are just trying to identify what that line in the sand actually is.

 

[crassbonanza]

The data I think Newsom is acting on right now is that new deaths are still continually rising and we were waiting for a two-week reprieve before moving to Phase 2. To me, that's reasonable.

Have death rates been steadily increasing? I was trying to find some data on day to day increases and wasn't able to. I did find that hospitalization rates have remained shockingly stable though.

Well, it's a similar thing with cancer and autoimmune diseases, as examples, no? "complications from x" is the primary cause of death. A Covid-19 positive young adult having a stroke is going to have the cause of death listed as Covid-19 and that's how it's been for at least half a century and shouldn't be controversial.

I think there are a couple of issues here. The first is anyone who is tested positive for covd is being listed as a covid death. I've seen reports of overdoses and car accidents being counted. Secondly, what role did covid play in a patient dying? Since this affects nursing homes the most, nearly all patients who passed have a long list of complications. Did a patient with renal failure and end stage cancer pass due to covid? If this is as wide spread as most think, there are going to be a lot of natural deaths ending with people testing positive for the disease, should all of those be counted?

To your second point, yeah, it would seem contradictory to both increase testing and ask for fewer cases. But I would imagine, as I mentioned above, keeping an eye on the death curve would be an important metric to go along with infection rates vs. tests.

To your third, I'd agree due to the indefinite nature of things now. If it were going to be two more weeks like I said, everyone needs to just suck it up. But two more months would be a disaster. At some point you would just have to hope for a random miracle breakthrough, and I realize our discussions are just trying to identify what that line in the sand actually is.

Again, if this spreads as quickly as some imagine it could, the death curve number could continue to rise just based on the fact that many have it.

Lastly, I don't think this should be just a case of suck it up. It's not people being whiny, this lockdown has tangible consequences and extending it 2 weeks will cause harm. If there is no goal to the lockdown anymore and we are eventually going to open up, then postponing it 2 weeks means you are causing unnecessary harm.