General COVID-19 talk, NHL remains suspended MOD Warning post #1

[HookKing]

I agree with the author of this piece -- try not to laugh:

Dozens of Hippies Stuck at Festival in Panama Due to Coronavirus Realize Collectivist Utopia is Actually “Hell”

So who had any idea that this third season worthless piece of shit episode would be so prescient:

"Star Trek: The Original Series" The Way to Eden (TV Episode 1969) - IMDb

 

[Bandit]

I don't see the 12% in the link. Can you point out where you see it? I see the map with total deaths in each state.

Yeah I dunno why the website doesn't have the percentages, but the graph in his latest tweet does (bottom right):

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

We know enough about the virus in terms of who suffers greater mortality rates and the rate of transmission (much greater than originally assumed, therefore a level of herd immunity should be reached much sooner).

People have done a good job of slowing the spread until more was known. Time to get back to work and use standard methods to contain the virus. Standard methods include quarantining those who are ill, isolating those who are most vulnerable from people whose status concerning the virus is unknown, and using better hygiene practices (which should include wearing masks on public transit and other areas). Standard practice has never included the quarantine of healthy individuals.

Large scale testing is a panacea which is going to take too long to reach. It would be nice to have, but it is not going to happen to the extent medical professionals and politicians desire. Time to get back to work and re-0pen the economy.

There will be an increase in cases, but with proper protection of the most vulnerable, I don't believe the mortality rate will increase dramatically.

But again, there are a lot of unknowns in here.

What does herd immunity mean when we don't even know if people can get it twice? We've seen several studies on different levels of antibodies and possible reports of people getting it twice but of course we cant confirm either with crap testing. Edit: Some good news here, false positives (weird link but there are other sources to corroborate, I just have to run right now and can't post more): (LEAD) Recovered virus patients retest positive due to 'dead' virus fragments: experts | Yonhap News Agency

We can mostly safely assume a greater level of transmission and thus a lower than reported death rate, and that we've done a good job of slowing the spread. But the 'standard methods' you speak of aren't going to work without proper testing and tracing and are exactly the things we're worried about--asymptomatic carriers and an incubation period of up to two weeks. It's easy with other diseases to simply quickly quarantine the sick because the onset is so fast, that's not the case here. We've seen how much that 'results' are a lagging indicator given what we've done to effectively stem the tide has resulted in our worst week ever only in the last week of April.

Disagree wholeheartedly that large scale testing will take too long to reach. If it does, that's a huge governmental failure from the federal to state to local level. Almost every other country handling this to any degree has done better than us there. If it continues to take too long, rushing into things is the worst thing we can do, because we have no way of knowing who is sick, who they have contacted.

I want to agree with you on the last point as well but it's the largest, riskiest assumption. Some of the countries that did well are now having flareups.

I guess overall is my point is I want to agree with you on all the hypothesis but I'm way more hesitant to put them into action without better info, it's still too risky imo, not enough information.

Edit: some additional really good news, Oxford scientists with a possible vaccine by September given they were already progressing on work on it elsewhere: Oxford scientists say a vaccine may be widely available by September

 

[KINGS17]

I agree with the author of this piece -- try not to laugh:

Dozens of Hippies Stuck at Festival in Panama Due to Coronavirus Realize Collectivist Utopia is Actually “Hell”

So who had any idea that this third season worthless piece of shit episode would be so prescient:

"Star Trek: The Original Series" The Way to Eden (TV Episode 1969) - IMDb

HERBERT!!!

 

[KINGS17]

Yeah I dunno why the website doesn't have the percentages, but the graph in his latest tweet does (bottom right):

Ah, ok thanks.

 

[tny760]

Yeah I dunno why the website doesn't have the percentages, but the graph in his latest tweet does (bottom right):

ok CDC data shows what was it, 18k+ covid deaths in people 75+, we're accounting for 17k excess deaths in that guy's data

no doubt it ravages people in nursing homes and who are old as dirt already

i'm not arguing that there's not a correlation here, but the correlation i see is that people near death get killed by covid?

 

[HeadInjury]

Fauci explaining the remdesivir study in great detail.

 

[The Tikkanen]

ok CDC data shows what was it, 18k+ covid deaths in people 75+, we're accounting for 17k excess deaths in that guy's data

no doubt it ravages people in nursing homes and who are old as dirt already

i'm not arguing that there's not a correlation here, but the correlation i see is that people near death get killed by covid?

Yes, people near death who catch a cold die. They will use their numbers to pad their argument. The real number will be if you remove the 75 and over deaths, then it will look like we've all been staying inside for no reason.

 

[Lt Dan]

Yes, people near death who catch a cold die. They will use their numbers to pad their argument. The real number will be if you remove the 75 and over deaths, then it will look like we've all ben staying inside for no reason.

So much this

 

[jfont]

So much this

I submit to you from Scientific America
Comparing COVID-19 Deaths to Flu Deaths Is like Comparing Apples to Oranges
If we compare, for instance, the number of people who died in the United States from COVID-19 in the second full week of April to the number of people who died from influenza during the worst week of the past seven flu seasons (as reported to the CDC), we find that the novel coronavirus killed between 9.5 and 44 times more people than seasonal flu. In other words, the coronavirus is not anything like the flu: It is much, much worse

Another perspective on people that are against the safer at home policy. Seeing these numbers, I certainly would not take any chances.

 

[Lt Dan]

I submit to you from Scientific America
Comparing COVID-19 Deaths to Flu Deaths Is like Comparing Apples to Oranges
If we compare, for instance, the number of people who died in the United States from COVID-19 in the second full week of April to the number of people who died from influenza during the worst week of the past seven flu seasons (as reported to the CDC), we find that the novel coronavirus killed between 9.5 and 44 times more people than seasonal flu. In other words, the coronavirus is not anything like the flu: It is much, much worse

Another perspective on people that are against the safer at home policy. Seeing these numbers, I certainly would not take any chances.

Yes
But it is largely killing people with pre-exisiting conditions who would have also probably died sometime in the next few years

 

[Fishhead]

Yes
But it is largely killing people with pre-exisiting conditions who would have also probably died sometime in the next few years

This is true, but these are also a lot of the same people that the flu, pneumonia, and other illnesses kill. In a typical influenza season, 70%-90% of attributed victims are over 65. Last flu season there was an estimated 35K deaths, 25K of which were 65+. COVID has nearly doubled that already in 2 months with 60K+ deaths with a similar 65+ percentage. And that's with social distancing and lots of precautions being taken.

This year's influenza death count will drop substantially, probably well into the 20K range. And flu testing is going to be more prevalent this year than usual because of COVID, so they are probably picking up deaths they would normally miss. We won't know for a while, but just by glancing at data COVID appears to be far worse than the worse flu seasons. Without distancing the death numbers would be factors higher just because of the ridiculous transmission rates.

 

[HeadInjury]

The CDC estimates deaths this flu season being between 24,000 – 62,000. So the mid-point is 43,000.

With the new job numbers out today, 30,000,000 people have lost their job in the last 5 or 6 weeks. There's almost 500 jobs lost for every death. This isn't sustainable and will lead to more deaths on its own due to increased suicides, drug overdoses, domestic violence etc. The idea of keeping the same shutdown orders in place for another month might make sense in the New York City area, but elsewhere it is crazy. Politicians need to have the guts to find that balance between battling the pandemic and saving the economy, even though less restrictive social distancing rules will undoubtedly lead to more cases and more deaths.

 

[Lt Dan]

I also think this is way more widespread than they realize. I think we are well over the 25% estimated who have or have had the virus

 

[KINGS17]

Governor Newsom has now closed all beaches in California. Time for a healthy dose of civil disobedience. Los Angeles County is the lone remaining hot spot in California, and it is primarily in the densely populated areas of Los Angeles. Newsom says it's all about "science", but he isn't using science in this one size fits all decree.

He has a daily news conference, yet refuses to appear before reporters to answer legitimate questions regarding the way this is being handled. Instead, he conducts the news conference via telephone and has his minions screen out reporters he considers to be troublemakers.

It is time to reassess the strategy, not double down on one which is wrecking the economy and the lives of healthy individuals. What will be the long term health effects related to the stress caused by the financial difficulties this has created?

We know government which has oversight over nursing homes has failed miserably in regulating these institutions, which is where 40%-50% of the deaths are occurring. Yet these numbers are never discussed by Newsom.

 

[tny760]

i don't particularly care for making statewide health choices based off "well publicized media coverage" but that's about all i'm gonna say about that

right when my county was starting a phased opening he makes a knee-jerk call based off the beaches it was easiest to slap a camera and feign outrage on. this is precisely why people get uppity about governmental controls. they say one thing, do another. jump on every opportunity to control, drag their feet on every opportunity to loosen the reigns

 

[Lt Dan]

Enough with the ‘hypothetical models,’ it’s time to reopen the U.S. economy, Stanford doctor says

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

What I really liked about the press conference the other day was the clearly laid out phases. They were well reasoned and made sense. But what I didn't like was indefinite dates. Obviously some of that is touch-and-go--like we need widespread testing and don't know when that will be--but without any certainty, there's no light at the end of the tunnel for people who have been following orders respectfully.

The 'problem' is that we are well within the worst weeks California has had yet, with 117 deaths on 4/22--people "needing" to hit the beaches during this time is absolutely counterproductive. I can understand people being upset about needing to work, feed family, etc...but I can't understand feeling "repressed" about not being able to go to the beach in friggin' April. That runs the chance of undoing everything we've done, Florida levels of stupidity, when all it took is 2-4 more weeks (not of no working, but of no large public gathering recreation) until we have more capacity for testing and treatment. Selfish f***s.

The other problem is that if you're going to open one beach, you have to open ALL of them. Part of the problem with the OC beaches was others were closed and you had people driving from other places to crowd them. Similarly, though, if you're going to close one beach, you have to close all of them, so I understand 'why.'

But again, indefinitely? That's problematic and my biggest beef with the current state of affairs in CA. We've had inconsistencies between states causing a federal lack of strong action, now we have inconsistencies between california counties causing dissonance and destroying cohesion. And a cohesive response WAS our greatest weapon, and now it's going to shit because all of a sudden people aren't trusting the leadership of the guy who has done this state better than just about every state in the nation with respect to this virus.

That being said I think Riverside county has extended the orders till June 15(?) and I can't agree with that either. I thought for sure the message would have been we're entering phase 2 around mid-May.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

Enough with the ‘hypothetical models,’ it’s time to reopen the U.S. economy, Stanford doctor says

I don't really fully disagree, but we have a model of this in Sweden, a way more responsible society with much better healthy care, and they're getting bombed pretty hard.

Yet the approach MAY work knowing what we know now, it appears they've come close to confirming immunity is a thing.

 

[HeadInjury]

Californians have done a great job with following social distancing guidelines. Why not trust them to continue social distancing in beaches and parks? It's not like its impossible to stay 10 feet from everyone else.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

Californians have done a great job with following social distancing guidelines. Why not trust them to continue social distancing in beaches and parks? It's not like its impossible to stay 10 feet from everyone else.

Yeah I'd be on board with that. Not sure if you were responding to me but that's why I said open them all or close them all, but don't pack everyone onto one beach by closing most.

My beef is with the people rushing to beat the stay at home orders as if the beach won't be a place you can go all summer and cramming into one beach before we're ready.

 

[KINGS17]

What I really liked about the press conference the other day was the clearly laid out phases. They were well reasoned and made sense. But what I didn't like was indefinite dates. Obviously some of that is touch-and-go--like we need widespread testing and don't know when that will be--but without any certainty, there's no light at the end of the tunnel for people who have been following orders respectfully.

The 'problem' is that we are well within the worst weeks California has had yet, with 117 deaths on 4/22--people "needing" to hit the beaches during this time is absolutely counterproductive. I can understand people being upset about needing to work, feed family, etc...but I can't understand feeling "repressed" about not being able to go to the beach in friggin' April. That runs the chance of undoing everything we've done, Florida levels of stupidity, when all it took is 2-4 more weeks (not of no working, but of no large public gathering recreation) until we have more capacity for testing and treatment. Selfish f***s.

The other problem is that if you're going to open one beach, you have to open ALL of them. Part of the problem with the OC beaches was others were closed and you had people driving from other places to crowd them. Similarly, though, if you're going to close one beach, you have to close all of them, so I understand 'why.'

But again, indefinitely? That's problematic and my biggest beef with the current state of affairs in CA. We've had inconsistencies between states causing a federal lack of strong action, now we have inconsistencies between california counties causing dissonance and destroying cohesion. And a cohesive response WAS our greatest weapon, and now it's going to shit because all of a sudden people aren't trusting the leadership of the guy who has done this state better than just about every state in the nation with respect to this virus.

That being said I think Riverside county has extended the orders till June 15(?) and I can't agree with that either. I thought for sure the message would have been we're entering phase 2 around mid-May.

How bad is it really in Florida? They are reopening. There are three counties in Florida (Miami-Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach) which bear watching. The rest of the state needs to get back to work. Early on when we had much less data on the mortality rate and the level of transmission, Florida was a cluster. I think they have recovered nicely. We know which demographic of the population needs protection. We know how to social-distance. People gathering on the beach in small groups, and six feet apart from other small groups are not going to affect the number of deaths in nursing homes.

Location	Confirmed	Recovered	Deaths
Miami-Dade County	11,570	1,286	302
Broward County	4,794	867	174
Palm Beach County	2,763	394	156
Manatee County	533	129	42
Lee County	971	205	37
Sarasota County	323	107	32
Orange County	1,339	229	30
Pinellas County	698	193	25
Hillsborough County	1,062	159	21
St. Lucie County	236	68	20
Duval County	990	95	19
Polk County	441	122	18
Volusia County	440	74	18
Collier County	562	74	15
Charlotte County	211	32	14
Clay County	271	57	14
Sumter County	173	40	12
Citrus County	97	25	11
Escambia County	470	38	11
Suwannee County	118	30	11
Lake County	223	54	10
Brevard County	266	45	8
Seminole County	367	80	8
Highlands County	80	28	7
Osceola County	470	124	7

[TBODY] [/TBODY]
[TBODY] [/TBODY]

 

[KINGS17]

Enough with the ‘hypothetical models,’ it’s time to reopen the U.S. economy, Stanford doctor says

“Americans are now desperate for sensible policy makers who have the courage to ignore the panic and rely on facts,” Atlas wrote in a widely read piece for The Hill last week. “Leaders must examine accumulated data to see what has actually happened, rather than keep emphasizing hypothetical projections; combine that empirical evidence with fundamental principles of biology established for decades; and then thoughtfully restore the country to function.”

I could not agree more. This one size fits all approach has become far too media driven, which feeds the panic. The rest of the United States has been nothing like New York City and other densely populated areas in the Northeast.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

How bad is it really in Florida? They are reopening. There are three counties in Florida (Miami-Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach) which bear watching. The rest of the state needs to get back to work. Early on when we had much less data on the mortality rate and the level of transmission, Florida was a cluster. I think they have recovered nicely. We know which demographic of the population needs protection. We know how to social-distance. People gathering on the beach in small groups, and six feet apart from other small groups are not going to affect the number of deaths in nursing homes.

Location	Confirmed	Recovered	Deaths
Miami-Dade County	11,570	1,286	302
Broward County	4,794	867	174
Palm Beach County	2,763	394	156
Manatee County	533	129	42
Lee County	971	205	37
Sarasota County	323	107	32
Orange County	1,339	229	30
Pinellas County	698	193	25
Hillsborough County	1,062	159	21
St. Lucie County	236	68	20
Duval County	990	95	19
Polk County	441	122	18
Volusia County	440	74	18
Collier County	562	74	15
Charlotte County	211	32	14
Clay County	271	57	14
Sumter County	173	40	12
Citrus County	97	25	11
Escambia County	470	38	11
Suwannee County	118	30	11
Lake County	223	54	10
Brevard County	266	45	8
Seminole County	367	80	8
Highlands County	80	28	7
Osceola County	470	124	7

[TBODY] [/TBODY]
[TBODY] [/TBODY]

it was more of just a meta commentary on Florida silliness in general. But let's not forget the spring breakers that spread the virus to other places, too. Florida wasn't restricted to florida.

But respectfully, the boldfaced? yeah we know the major issue with nursing homes but you're minimizing now. Are people in nursing homes getting sick by the visits of magical unicorns?

The people that just can't help themselves but defy orders are the same that are going to be visiting infirm relatives. And they're the ones dragging this thing out.

 

[KINGS17]

it was more of just a meta commentary on Florida silliness in general. But let's not forget the spring breakers that spread the virus to other places, too. Florida wasn't restricted to florida.

But respectfully, the boldfaced? yeah we know the major issue with nursing homes but you're minimizing now. Are people in nursing homes getting sick by the visits of magical unicorns?

The people that just can't help themselves but defy orders are the same that are going to be visiting infirm relatives. And they're the ones dragging this thing out.

People in nursing homes are getting sick by coming in contact with workers and family members who bring COVID-19 to them. Lock down the nursing home workers. Do not allow visitors to the nursing home until this gets sorted out, but do not shut down the entire economy over a small sliver of the population which needs tighter controls. Perhaps if state governments applied resources to problematic areas the numbers would drop significantly.

They can't help themselves? You just don't allow it. POSTED: This facility is closed to all visitors until further notice. Done.

I get "Florida silliness in general" is a thing, but let's not discount how ridiculous most Americans outside California feel this state is when it comes to being over regulated and taxed.