General COVID-19 talk, NHL remains suspended MOD Warning post #1

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There is no such mechanism. The US defaulting on Treasury bonds is a really bad idea.
No doubt, it would take an act of Congress. When someone owes you a debt, if you deduct their debt from your debt to them, have you defaulted? The Communist Chinese government would certainly say yes, and would no longer buy our bonds, but I doubt Japan who holds more U.S. debt than China would see it that way.
 
With some of these places re-opening, and we won't know for a month or more, but if things go bad, I hope they shut everything (sports related) down until the fall.
 
OC is reopening effective immediately, so for better or for worse, we've got a Socal guinea pig.


I was critical of these doctors yesterday.

It would be nice if places like youtube and facebook embraced the concept of the marketplace of ideas. People expressing an opinion may be right or wrong. But shutting down the conversation like this is wrong.


To their credit--you won't hear me say that often--facebook has at least started to tag content with questionable claims as such. I don't think they full on shut things down unless they're hateful/inciteful. But...


I don’t support the censorship, but these are not state run businesses, and there is nothing that says they must be fair and balanced. Not unlike this place where you can’t just say whatever you want regardless if it’s true or not.

The “solution” is for someone to start their own video service to allow whatever content they want. Easier said than done of course but this is sadly what happens when there’s only one real player in a given space.


...these are also private companies and while in some ways it's fair for them to open it all up it's not enforceable by the government, at least there's no precedent yet and I don't think any judges want to be put in that position, it's precarious. Like Bandit says, they're private companies, and there are some 'right wing' alternatives for those who were appalled by twitter at least. If someone wants to get rich, feel free to start SocialismTube, or TeaPartyBook.

Obviously the big problem becomes an echo chamber effect but it looks like that can happen either way due to algorithms.

But regardless, facts aren't political--and omissions of facts, deliberate or not, are misleading, so it's not too shocking that in the middle of a public health crisis those two were fact-checked into oblivion. We need better data for sure but they got caught over-presuming some things.
 
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I'm not a believer, so my speculation may misrepresent their attitudes.

Well, there's a case to be made--and OC is making it right now via action--that stay-at-home orders are a step towards removing more freedoms, as are some of the tracking measures. I'm not personally on board with it, but if people can say that unemotionally--i.e. not the "bill gates is injecting me with human tracking microchips so the 5G towers can kill me" theories--I can buy it. At the most reasonable level, the public health merit is debateable--hell some very reasonable people in this thread point out research that suggests 55x more people have this than we thought. But unfortunately, it's mostly just the "I need the freedom to get my hair cut in a public salon, f*** your grandpa's health" people with the inability to see that it's not about them but everyone they see for the next two weeks that are getting all the negative airtime.
 
Well, there's a case to be made--and OC is making it right now via action--that stay-at-home orders are a step towards removing more freedoms, as are some of the tracking measures. I'm not personally on board with it, but if people can say that unemotionally--i.e. not the "bill gates is injecting me with human tracking microchips so the 5G towers can kill me" theories--I can buy it. At the most reasonable level, the public health merit is debateable--hell some very reasonable people in this thread point out research that suggests 55x more people have this than we thought. But unfortunately, it's mostly just the "I need the freedom to get my hair cut in a public salon, f*** your grandpa's health" people with the inability to see that it's not about them but everyone they see for the next two weeks that are getting all the negative airtime.
That’s great, but socialism has f*** all to do with “freedom”.
 
That’s great, but socialism has f*** all to do with “freedom”.

Of course not, socialism/communism/fascism have been the buzzwords for 'the opponent' for years, anyone that throws that in my face just announces they're too lazy to have a real conversation and it's not worth the time to have a bad faith discussion. They're trumpeting their inability to see a gradient.

To tie that back to what you're saying, some people take the stay at home orders as a repression of liberties and all the way across the grand canyon to one of those terms.
 
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Of course not, socialism/communism/fascism have been the buzzwords for 'the opponent' for years, anyone that throws that in my face just announces they're too lazy to have a real conversation and it's not worth the time to have a bad faith discussion. They're trumpeting their inability to see a gradient.

To tie that back to what you're saying, some people take the stay at home orders as a repression of liberties and all the way across the grand canyon to one of those terms.
As it relates to the California shutdown what type of gradient is Governor Newsom willing to discuss. He acts as if rural California counties are the same as densely populated LA and Santa Clara counties. There are many counties in California which have less than 10 deaths, many more with less than 50. The one county that has been hit the hardest, LA county has 1,000 deaths.

Confirmed
45,031
Recovered
-
Deaths
1,809
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
LocationConfirmedRecoveredDeaths
Los Angeles County20,976-1,000
Riverside County3,7351,303141
San Diego County3,314-118
Orange County2,151-42
Santa Clara County2,122-106
San Bernardino County1,827-85
Alameda County1,533-55
San Francisco County1,468-23
San Mateo County1,099-48
Sacramento County1,053-41
Kern County8474495
Contra Costa County842-25
Tulare County5789535
San Joaquin County529-25
Fresno County5211897
Ventura County50835617
Santa Barbara County4773267
Stanislaus County32422410
Imperial County304978
Solano County249-4
Marin County22617112
Sonoma County2221032
Monterey County191425
San Luis Obispo County1731351
Yolo County162-16
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
[TBODY] [/TBODY]

In California 40% of deaths from COVID-19 have occurred in nursing homes.

https://www.sacbee.com/news/local/health-and-medicine/article242348891.html

In California, at least 3,515 nursing home residents, and 2,323 health care workers at nursing homes have been infected since the pandemic began infecting residents at hundreds of the state’s roughly 1,200 facilities.

The California Department of Public Health is requiring all skilled nursing facilities to report daily the number of residents and staff who test positive for COVID-19. The data about deaths appear to have been published Tuesday morning and represent the 86 percent of nursing homes that reported in the last 24 hours.


How is continuing the lockdown order in counties with a low number of active cases saving the lives of people in nursing homes in LA county? Newsom has overreacted here, which is understandable in the beginning. Data on the virus has become more clear. The models Newsom based his initial decisions on have been proven to be incorrect, yet he still calls them "science". Models are not science. Science is done by having a hypothesis, doing tests and observations, and recording data. Models are based on computer algorithms and someone's assumptions.

Orange County with only 42 deaths is taking steps to revitalize their economy. Newsom needs to get out of their way. The only county which needs major restrictions at this time is Los Angeles county.

People can label Newsom in whatever way pleases them (socialist, progressive, Democrat), I don't care. He is someone who thinks centralized government has all or most of the answers and is the most qualified to execute solutions. Meanwhile the State of California's unemployment system can't even come close to processing the claims it is seeing. The CA EDD and DMV systems run on antiquated software from the 1970's. Do people really believe this guy is a "techie" and "gets it". He speaks in a lot of jargon, but he is another politician who has never held a job or leadership position in the private sector.
 
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The latest CDC data on age demographics regarding COVID-19. Did we shoot ourselves in the foot along with our economy? Should we consider it too late to change the strategy and quarantine those who are actually sick and restrict access to the elderly and people at risk? Why continue to do unnecessary damage to the livelihoods of people?

Provisional Death Counts for Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19)

Data as of April 28, 2020
Age groupCOVID-19 Deaths (U07.1)1Deaths from All CausesPneumonia Deaths
(J12.0–J18.9)2
Deaths with Pneumonia and COVID-19
(J12.0–J18.9 and U07.1)2
Influenza Deaths
(J09–J11)3
Population4
All ages31,587693,12860,34014,1245,748327,167,434
Under 1 year43,593341113,848,208
1–4 years27013223015,962,067
5–14 years21,0363604041,075,169
15–24 years336,134128144042,970,800
25–34 years24213,03442910212945,697,774
35–44 years59918,80396323620541,277,888
45–54 years1,64936,4322,49868350241,631,699
55–64 years3,97087,6937,3061,7481,06042,272,636
65–74 years6,841136,38312,5373,0251,25430,492,316
75–84 years8,607171,46716,6533,9551,28515,394,374
85 years and over9,638217,85219,7244,3581,1926,544,503
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
 
As it relates to the California shutdown what type of gradient is Governor Newsom willing to discuss. He acts as if rural California counties are the same as densely populated LA and Santa Clara counties. There are many counties in California which have less than 10 deaths, many more with less than 50. The one county that has been hit the hardest, LA county has 1,000 deaths.

Confirmed
45,031
Recovered
-
Deaths
1,809
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
LocationConfirmedRecoveredDeaths
Los Angeles County20,976-1,000
Riverside County3,7351,303141
San Diego County3,314-118
Orange County2,151-42
Santa Clara County2,122-106
San Bernardino County1,827-85
Alameda County1,533-55
San Francisco County1,468-23
San Mateo County1,099-48
Sacramento County1,053-41
Kern County8474495
Contra Costa County842-25
Tulare County5789535
San Joaquin County529-25
Fresno County5211897
Ventura County50835617
Santa Barbara County4773267
Stanislaus County32422410
Imperial County304978
Solano County249-4
Marin County22617112
Sonoma County2221032
Monterey County191425
San Luis Obispo County1731351
Yolo County162-16
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
In California 40% of deaths from COVID-19 have occurred in nursing homes.

https://www.sacbee.com/news/local/health-and-medicine/article242348891.html

In California, at least 3,515 nursing home residents, and 2,323 health care workers at nursing homes have been infected since the pandemic began infecting residents at hundreds of the state’s roughly 1,200 facilities.

The California Department of Public Health is requiring all skilled nursing facilities to report daily the number of residents and staff who test positive for COVID-19. The data about deaths appear to have been published Tuesday morning and represent the 86 percent of nursing homes that reported in the last 24 hours.


How is continuing the lockdown order in counties with a low number of active cases saving the lives of people in nursing homes in LA county? Newsom has overreacted here, which is understandable in the beginning. Data on the virus has become more clear. The models Newsom based his initial decisions on have been proven to be incorrect, yet he still calls them "science". Models are not science. Science is done by having a hypothesis, doing tests and observations, and recording data. Models are based on computer algorithms and someone's assumptions.

Orange County with only 42 deaths is taking steps to revitalize their economy. Newsom needs to get out of their way. The only county which needs major restrictions at this time is Los Angeles county.

People can label Newsom in whatever way pleases them (socialist, progressive, Democrat), I don't care. He is someone who thinks centralized government has all or most of the answers and is the most qualified to execute solutions. Meanwhile the State of California's unemployment system can't even come close to processing the claims it is seeing. The CA EDD and DMV systems run on antiquated software from the 1970's. Do people really believe this guy is a "techie" and "gets it". He speaks in a lot of jargon, but he is another politician who has never held a job or leadership position in the private sector.
I agree with what you’re saying except: “People can label Newsom in whatever way pleases them (socialist” At least as it relates to covid. Anyone who uses socialist in this context might as well hold up a sign that says “I don’t know the meaning of the words coming out of my mouth”.

Might as well say “wake up sheep! This is how veganism starts!”
 
I agree with what you’re saying except: “People can label Newsom in whatever way pleases them (socialist” At least as it relates to covid. Anyone who uses socialist in this context might as well hold up a sign that says “I don’t know the meaning of the words coming out of my mouth”.

Might as well say “wake up sheep! This is how veganism starts!”
In that context I was referring to Newsom's political philosophy. I think his philosophy has an impact on his policies to combat COVID-19, and I expect that is true of any governor.
 
And . . . the Mesa Police Department has opened a homicide investigation into the death of Arizona Fish Tank Cleaner Lady's husband.

Police Investigating Death of Arizona Man From Chloroquine Phosphate

Carol Baskin Covid Edition!


As it relates to the California shutdown what type of gradient is Governor Newsom willing to discuss. He acts as if rural California counties are the same as densely populated LA and Santa Clara counties. There are many counties in California which have less than 10 deaths, many more with less than 50. The one county that has been hit the hardest, LA county has 1,000 deaths.

Confirmed
45,031
Recovered
-
Deaths
1,809
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
LocationConfirmedRecoveredDeaths
Los Angeles County20,976-1,000
Riverside County3,7351,303141
San Diego County3,314-118
Orange County2,151-42
Santa Clara County2,122-106
San Bernardino County1,827-85
Alameda County1,533-55
San Francisco County1,468-23
San Mateo County1,099-48
Sacramento County1,053-41
Kern County8474495
Contra Costa County842-25
Tulare County5789535
San Joaquin County529-25
Fresno County5211897
Ventura County50835617
Santa Barbara County4773267
Stanislaus County32422410
Imperial County304978
Solano County249-4
Marin County22617112
Sonoma County2221032
Monterey County191425
San Luis Obispo County1731351
Yolo County162-16
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
In California 40% of deaths from COVID-19 have occurred in nursing homes.

https://www.sacbee.com/news/local/health-and-medicine/article242348891.html

In California, at least 3,515 nursing home residents, and 2,323 health care workers at nursing homes have been infected since the pandemic began infecting residents at hundreds of the state’s roughly 1,200 facilities.

The California Department of Public Health is requiring all skilled nursing facilities to report daily the number of residents and staff who test positive for COVID-19. The data about deaths appear to have been published Tuesday morning and represent the 86 percent of nursing homes that reported in the last 24 hours.


How is continuing the lockdown order in counties with a low number of active cases saving the lives of people in nursing homes in LA county? Newsom has overreacted here, which is understandable in the beginning. Data on the virus has become more clear. The models Newsom based his initial decisions on have been proven to be incorrect, yet he still calls them "science". Models are not science. Science is done by having a hypothesis, doing tests and observations, and recording data. Models are based on computer algorithms and someone's assumptions.

Orange County with only 42 deaths is taking steps to revitalize their economy. Newsom needs to get out of their way. The only county which needs major restrictions at this time is Los Angeles county.

People can label Newsom in whatever way pleases them (socialist, progressive, Democrat), I don't care. He is someone who thinks centralized government has all or most of the answers and is the most qualified to execute solutions. Meanwhile the State of California's unemployment system can't even come close to processing the claims it is seeing. The CA EDD and DMV systems run on antiquated software from the 1970's. Do people really believe this guy is a "techie" and "gets it". He speaks in a lot of jargon, but he is another politician who has never held a job or leadership position in the private sector.

The latest CDC data on age demographics regarding COVID-19. Did we shoot ourselves in the foot along with our economy? Should we consider it too late to change the strategy and quarantine those who are actually sick and restrict access to the elderly and people at risk? Why continue to do unnecessary damage to the livelihoods of people?

Provisional Death Counts for Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19)

Data as of April 28, 2020
Age groupCOVID-19 Deaths (U07.1)1Deaths from All CausesPneumonia Deaths
(J12.0–J18.9)2
Deaths with Pneumonia and COVID-19
(J12.0–J18.9 and U07.1)2
Influenza Deaths
(J09–J11)3
Population4
All ages31,587693,12860,34014,1245,748327,167,434
Under 1 year43,593341113,848,208
1–4 years27013223015,962,067
5–14 years21,0363604041,075,169
15–24 years336,134128144042,970,800
25–34 years24213,03442910212945,697,774
35–44 years59918,80396323620541,277,888
45–54 years1,64936,4322,49868350241,631,699
55–64 years3,97087,6937,3061,7481,06042,272,636
65–74 years6,841136,38312,5373,0251,25430,492,316
75–84 years8,607171,46716,6533,9551,28515,394,374
85 years and over9,638217,85219,7244,3581,1926,544,503
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
[TBODY] [/TBODY]


I mean I agree with a lot of this and I think it was you I responded to in the last couple of days about it. I'd be REALLY curious to see what the numbers look like without the 'hotspots' especially nursing homes. California largely has this under control due to the measures they've taken.

We will see what happens to Orange County for better or for worse.

My two big concerns--I disagree that "data on the virus has become more clear." It's still an uninformed shitshow. I guess it's 'better', but we are just projecting the other direction now--that we've made some progress (we have) and that up to 55x the amount of people we thought had the virus have it (another projection, just a positive one). Without testing, anything we do is flying blind, now it's down to the philosophical questions you ask--is it worth waiting?

IMO, it was and still is while we wait for testing and treatment. I look to countries with far better healthcare like Sweden and Germany and see their struggles. I think this is throwing a match on the gasoline. But to be fair, neither of those countries has really blown up either. If I'm to base my hypothesis on that, I'd say opening up California sees a steady increase in cases--but rather than exponential, just a straight line.

I'd say to move to Newsom's "Phase 2" we need at least proper testing and data. Two more weeks, please--but it's not happening. So let's go back to hope as a strategy.
 

Very good news.

To add--these are the wild cards that I hope will play in the next couple of months--effective testing/tracing, and a drug treatment that helps immensely, particularly with mortality rates. "getting sick" is one thing, being in great fear of death is another (i know the rates are relatively low but I think you get the gist). You have those two things and the general public can conduct day-to-day life.


Some upsetting news..
A couple of friends of my family have confirmed they have Covid 19.
*Sigh*

Hang in there. Very sorry to hear, but hoping it stays mild for them!

I have a very close friend who is a healthcare worker near NYC and they've got it as well--fortunately so far they've only had to stay home and have had mild symptoms, they're pretty lucky to just be able to mostly sleep it off, but say it comes in waves. Late 40s, so a little nervous, based on what they've seen. But he says kind of the same thing Cuomo said, he gets up every day to fight it and at least exercises a little bit in his living room even if it wipes him, makes him feel like he's on offense instead of defense.
 
The latest CDC data on age demographics regarding COVID-19. Did we shoot ourselves in the foot along with our economy? Should we consider it too late to change the strategy and quarantine those who are actually sick and restrict access to the elderly and people at risk? Why continue to do unnecessary damage to the livelihoods of people?

Provisional Death Counts for Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19)

Data as of April 28, 2020
Age groupCOVID-19 Deaths (U07.1)1Deaths from All CausesPneumonia Deaths
(J12.0–J18.9)2
Deaths with Pneumonia and COVID-19
(J12.0–J18.9 and U07.1)2
Influenza Deaths
(J09–J11)3
Population4
All ages31,587693,12860,34014,1245,748327,167,434
Under 1 year43,593341113,848,208
1–4 years27013223015,962,067
5–14 years21,0363604041,075,169
15–24 years336,134128144042,970,800
25–34 years24213,03442910212945,697,774
35–44 years59918,80396323620541,277,888
45–54 years1,64936,4322,49868350241,631,699
55–64 years3,97087,6937,3061,7481,06042,272,636
65–74 years6,841136,38312,5373,0251,25430,492,316
75–84 years8,607171,46716,6533,9551,28515,394,374
85 years and over9,638217,85219,7244,3581,1926,544,503
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
not gonna lie this chart is pretty infuriating. half were 65+ and we seem set on believing that it mostly kills people with preexisting conditions which isn't even represented in this kind of data so i wouldn't be all too surprised if most of those younger people were 500lb diabetics chowing down on nightly taco bell.

like 1000 deaths of working age people? and we shut the whole shit down?
 
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I mean I agree with a lot of this and I think it was you I responded to in the last couple of days about it. I'd be REALLY curious to see what the numbers look like without the 'hotspots' especially nursing homes. California largely has this under control due to the measures they've taken.

We will see what happens to Orange County for better or for worse.

My two big concerns--I disagree that "data on the virus has become more clear." It's still an uninformed shitshow. I guess it's 'better', but we are just projecting the other direction now--that we've made some progress (we have) and that up to 55x the amount of people we thought had the virus have it (another projection, just a positive one). Without testing, anything we do is flying blind, now it's down to the philosophical questions you ask--is it worth waiting?

IMO, it was and still is while we wait for testing and treatment. I look to countries with far better healthcare like Sweden and Germany and see their struggles. I think this is throwing a match on the gasoline. But to be fair, neither of those countries has really blown up either. If I'm to base my hypothesis on that, I'd say opening up California sees a steady increase in cases--but rather than exponential, just a straight line.

I'd say to move to Newsom's "Phase 2" we need at least proper testing and data. Two more weeks, please--but it's not happening. So let's go back to hope as a strategy.
We know enough about the virus in terms of who suffers greater mortality rates and the rate of transmission (much greater than originally assumed, therefore a level of herd immunity should be reached much sooner).

People have done a good job of slowing the spread until more was known. Time to get back to work and use standard methods to contain the virus. Standard methods include quarantining those who are ill, isolating those who are most vulnerable from people whose status concerning the virus is unknown, and using better hygiene practices (which should include wearing masks on public transit and other areas). Standard practice has never included the quarantine of healthy individuals.

Large scale testing is a panacea which is going to take too long to reach. It would be nice to have, but it is not going to happen to the extent medical professionals and politicians desire. Time to get back to work and re-0pen the economy.

There will be an increase in cases, but with proper protection of the most vulnerable, I don't believe the mortality rate will increase dramatically.
 
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Some upsetting news..
A couple of friends of my family have confirmed they have Covid 19.
*Sigh*

I have a friend whose co worker's wife died from Covid, in her 40's mother of 3, so that makes it real to me. That and the fact that I assume I have an underlying condition means I can't take chances. Again though I had brain surgery on 3-25 and was in ICU, the nurses didn't wear masks and when I asked why they weren't wearing masks they told me we can't wear them, we'll get in trouble. I have been in and out of different hospitals since this started and haven't seen bodies in the street or panic at the hospitals, it's actually been good for me cause I pull into an empty parking lot, no attendant to charge me for parking and walk into an incredibly un crowded hospital.
 
not gonna lie this chart is pretty infuriating. half were 65+ and we seem set on believing that it mostly kills people with preexisting conditions which isn't even represented in this kind of data so i wouldn't be all too surprised if most of those younger people were 500lb diabetics chowing down on nightly taco bell.

like 1000 deaths of working age people? and we shut the whole shit down?
I think you’re putting too much faith in the ability for the world to know with certainty who has died of covid 19 and who died of “other shit”.
 
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