General COVID-19 talk, NHL remains suspended MOD Warning post #1

[Fishhead]

It's time to bring the legislature back into session, but Newsom can control that as well. I would like to see a major newspaper in California get a list of all the executive orders Newsom has signed during this time and publish them.

There is a bit of a difference between what San Diego is doing regarding their beaches compared to other beaches. San Diego does not allow people to bring chairs and sit on the sand. You are free to go swimming, walk or run on the beach. I don't think Ventura County handles it any differently than Orange County though.

They are definitely handling it different in SD. Ventura doesn't have a high population so it's naturally spread out there already.

The closing of OC beaches is just a token gesture anyways, Newsom knows that local officials probably won't enforce it. It's just bringing attention to a situation where you have lots of people in an area with potential for spread. Potential of spreading on the beach is low, it's the restrooms and facilities where spread is going to happen. The virus stays on those kinds of surfaces for a very long time, so if one person goes in the bathroom and coughs that is a carrier, every person after them that day is going to be exposed. Those restrooms tend to be disgusting during the best of times, and lots of kids frequent them who practice hygiene about as well as an earthworm.

 

[crassbonanza]

They are definitely handling it different in SD. Ventura doesn't have a high population so it's naturally spread out there already.

The closing of OC beaches is just a token gesture anyways, Newsom knows that local officials probably won't enforce it. It's just bringing attention to a situation where you have lots of people in an area with potential for spread. Potential of spreading on the beach is low, it's the restrooms and facilities where spread is going to happen. The virus stays on those kinds of surfaces for a very long time, so if one person goes in the bathroom and coughs that is a carrier, every person after them that day is going to be exposed. Those restrooms tend to be disgusting during the best of times, and lots of kids frequent them who practice hygiene about as well as an earthworm.

Correct me if I am wrong on this, but I do not believe they have found a single case of transmission from a surface.

Even if it is a token gesture it is not the right move to make. If you declare yourself unltimate authority and that you will base your actions on facts, don't act on emotions. What does him punishing OC solve right now? How does it help?

Like I said, that whole situation pissed me off and made me question his entire plan going forward. I no longer trust him to make appropriate decisions.

 

[Bandit]

Just to clarify, there is a flu vaccine. I understand it's just that the influenza virus mutates so rapidly, the immune system doesn't recognize future iterations to attack it.

Unfortunately, people misunderstand these concepts and thus feel the flu vaccine is a waste of time and thus should be avoided.

Yeah, I guess what I meant was there isn’t a permanent vaccine like polio or measles or whatever. And yeah, people who don’t get the flu shot... what can you say?

 

[King'sPawn]

Yeah, I guess what I meant was there isn’t a permanent vaccine like polio or measles or whatever. And yeah, people who don’t get the flu shot... what can you say?

I hope I didn't come across as pedantic, as I'm sure it's what you meant. But I spent years working for cardiologists and, either at work or personally, dealt with anti-vaxxers who continue to spread misinformation. I just earnestly try to be clear from my end to minimize it, and it spills over in my posts at times.

This even spread into MAs saying they don't get the flu shot "because all it does is make them sick."

So I appreciate you tolerating my clarity. It's a battle I continue to fight, even if I have migrated my career to IT work.

 

[Fishhead]

Correct me if I am wrong on this, but I do not believe they have found a single case of transmission from a surface.

Even if it is a token gesture it is not the right move to make. If you declare yourself unltimate authority and that you will base your actions on facts, don't act on emotions. What does him punishing OC solve right now? How does it help?

Like I said, that whole situation pissed me off and made me question his entire plan going forward. I no longer trust him to make appropriate decisions.

I think he is overstepping here too, but there is some data to back it up. He should have just ordered restrictions statewide like San Diego is doing, that would have been the best course of action.

It's impossible to know for certain with surface transmission, but there is data that is pointing towards indirect contact as a method of infection.

One study of a cluster infection in China within a building indicated a group of cases, but these people didn't contact each other and were on different floors. What they all did do is use the same elevators and restrooms, which are hotbeds of viral activity. It's likely this was surface transmission as this was an isolated cluster.

Transmission is known to take place in hospitals. Another study in a Chinese hospital looked at aerosols and surface areas for viral particles. Here is what they found:

ICU and GW (general ward)

Aerosol positive results:
ICU - 35% of samples, GW 7.9%
Definitely risk of infection by airborne particles
Smaller areas had higher percentages than larger ones. It wasn't clear if these rooms had a pressure system or other precautions in place

Surface areas positive results:
ICU: 43.5%, GW 7.9%

Floor swabs: ICU 70%, GW 15.4%. This is why you should always decon your shoes, this is a main method of transfer
Computer mice: ICU 75%, GW 20%
Trash cans: ICU 60%, GW 0%
Bed rails: ICU 43%, GW 0%
Doorknobs: ICU 8.3%

In areas with known infections, like the ICU, the virus is everywhere. Not all of that is viable, but it's obvious this stuff spreads in the air and surfaces like wildfire. Many other viruses can transmit from surfaces, including MERS, so we should probably assume COVID does unless absolutely certain.

 

[Bandit]

I hope I didn't come across as pedantic, as I'm sure it's what you meant. But I spent years working for cardiologists and, either at work or personally, dealt with anti-vaxxers who continue to spread misinformation. I just earnestly try to be clear from my end to minimize it, and it spills over in my posts at times.

This even spread into MAs saying they don't get the flu shot "because all it does is make them sick."

So I appreciate you tolerating my clarity. It's a battle I continue to fight, even if I have migrated my career to IT work.

Nope all good!

 

[crassbonanza]

I think he is overstepping here too, but there is some data to back it up. He should have just ordered restrictions statewide like San Diego is doing, that would have been the best course of action.

It's impossible to know for certain with surface transmission, but there is data that is pointing towards indirect contact as a method of infection.

One study of a cluster infection in China within a building indicated a group of cases, but these people didn't contact each other and were on different floors. What they all did do is use the same elevators and restrooms, which are hotbeds of viral activity. It's likely this was surface transmission as this was an isolated cluster.

Transmission is known to take place in hospitals. Another study in a Chinese hospital looked at aerosols and surface areas for viral particles. Here is what they found:

ICU and GW (general ward)

Aerosol positive results:
ICU - 35% of samples, GW 7.9%
Definitely risk of infection by airborne particles
Smaller areas had higher percentages than larger ones. It wasn't clear if these rooms had a pressure system or other precautions in place

Surface areas positive results:
ICU: 43.5%, GW 7.9%

Floor swabs: ICU 70%, GW 15.4%. This is why you should always decon your shoes, this is a main method of transfer
Computer mice: ICU 75%, GW 20%
Trash cans: ICU 60%, GW 0%
Bed rails: ICU 43%, GW 0%
Doorknobs: ICU 8.3%

In areas with known infections, like the ICU, the virus is everywhere. Not all of that is viable, but it's obvious this stuff spreads in the air and surfaces like wildfire. Many other viruses can transmit from surfaces, including MERS, so we should probably assume COVID does unless absolutely certain.

Could you send me a link because I'd love to read more. From what I have gathered we think it might be possible, but have found no cases directly related to surface transmission. The CDC currently does not believe that surface transmission is the main way the virus is spread, but they do say it may be possible to spread in that manner.

Anyways, beyond the bathroom question, we do know that outdoor transmission is not very likely. So shutting down beaches and parks is not backed by science currently. We don't even need San Diego rules, people should be able to social distance at the beach. I think this was an attack on Huntington Beach because the optics made Newsome look bad. Further reading revealed that he was ready to shut down all beaches until San Diego pushed back at which time he decided to focus only on Orange County. Just allowing one person to make decisions on whims doesn't appeal to me.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

Could you send me a link because I'd love to read more. From what I have gathered we think it might be possible, but have found no cases directly related to surface transmission. The CDC currently does not believe that surface transmission is the main way the virus is spread, but they do say it may be possible to spread in that manner.

Anyways, beyond the bathroom question, we do know that outdoor transmission is not very likely. So shutting down beaches and parks is not backed by science currently. We don't even need San Diego rules, people should be able to social distance at the beach. I think this was an attack on Huntington Beach because the optics made Newsome look bad. Further reading revealed that he was ready to shut down all beaches until San Diego pushed back at which time he decided to focus only on Orange County. Just allowing one person to make decisions on whims doesn't appeal to me.

Well, lucky for us, Huntington Beach has volunteered to find out.



Although it should be pointed out that OC has done very well despite being as flippant as Florida about things. There's something worth studying there. I'm not sure the conclusion is "do whatever since it doesn't matter" but it sure feels that way

 

[Fishhead]

Could you send me a link because I'd love to read more. From what I have gathered we think it might be possible, but have found no cases directly related to surface transmission. The CDC currently does not believe that surface transmission is the main way the virus is spread, but they do say it may be possible to spread in that manner.

Anyways, beyond the bathroom question, we do know that outdoor transmission is not very likely. So shutting down beaches and parks is not backed by science currently. We don't even need San Diego rules, people should be able to social distance at the beach. I think this was an attack on Huntington Beach because the optics made Newsome look bad. Further reading revealed that he was ready to shut down all beaches until San Diego pushed back at which time he decided to focus only on Orange County. Just allowing one person to make decisions on whims doesn't appeal to me.

Sure here are the links:

Indirect Virus Transmission in Cluster of COVID-19 Cases, Wenzhou, China, 2020
Aerosol and Surface Distribution of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 in Hospital Wards, Wuhan, China, 2020

You can see there's nothing definitive, but lots of good data points.

Yea there is no data that indicates outdoor spaces are dangerous, its quite the opposite. The 2nd paper above does show that they detected aerosols 4m from patients, which is far beyond the 6 feet rule. However, that's in a confined space so we shouldn't see anything like that outside. I don't see any need for parks to be shut down or the beaches really, as long as shared facilities are closed. National parks too, as long as bathrooms and enclosed areas are off limits, no problem.

It could be because of HB, but I don't think that really made Newsom or anyone else look bad. I mean, a lot of them were protesting with masks on, they just looked like a bunch of attention grabbers to me. That's way better than what happened in Michigan.

 

[Fishhead]

Well, lucky for us, Huntington Beach has volunteered to find out.



Although it should be pointed out that OC has done very well despite being as flippant as Florida about things. There's something worth studying there. I'm not sure the conclusion is "do whatever since it doesn't matter" but it sure feels that way

Well, HB does have the 3rd most cases in OC and the 6th highest in cases per capita soooooo.

 

[KINGS17]

Well, HB does have the 3rd most cases in OC and the 6th highest in cases per capita soooooo.

How many deaths per capita? There is no way to know without more testing how many people actually have contracted the virus in say Santa Ana vs HB, as more people in HB have access to a doctor who will prescribe a test.

 

[tny760]

emergency approval for remdesivir treatment which is cool

Gilead gets emergency FDA authorization for remdesivir to treat coronavirus, Trump says

and more carrot dangling by newsom

California Gov. Gavin Newsom says state is 'days, not weeks' away from changes to stay-at-home order

 

[tny760]

thread about remdesivir in the covid forum closed within minutes because "not thread worthy", right below it "dogs can get the virus too"

 

[fivehole32]

Well, lucky for us, Huntington Beach has volunteered to find out.



Although it should be pointed out that OC has done very well despite being as flippant as Florida about things. There's something worth studying there. I'm not sure the conclusion is "do whatever since it doesn't matter" but it sure feels that way

I think Orange County has a lot of communities where their country of origin(Korean, Chinese, Japanese, etc) wear masks during the flu season regardless of pandemic. It will be interesting break down after this is all over to see if those communities were less affected because of a cultural norm.

 

[crassbonanza]

Sure here are the links:

Indirect Virus Transmission in Cluster of COVID-19 Cases, Wenzhou, China, 2020
Aerosol and Surface Distribution of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 in Hospital Wards, Wuhan, China, 2020

You can see there's nothing definitive, but lots of good data points.

Yea there is no data that indicates outdoor spaces are dangerous, its quite the opposite. The 2nd paper above does show that they detected aerosols 4m from patients, which is far beyond the 6 feet rule. However, that's in a confined space so we shouldn't see anything like that outside. I don't see any need for parks to be shut down or the beaches really, as long as shared facilities are closed. National parks too, as long as bathrooms and enclosed areas are off limits, no problem.

It could be because of HB, but I don't think that really made Newsom or anyone else look bad. I mean, a lot of them were protesting with masks on, they just looked like a bunch of attention grabbers to me. That's way better than what happened in Michigan.

Thanks for the links, I hadn't read much about indirect transmission. It was interesting that they said there is no evidence that the virus can survive outside the body for long. If we can find out more information about the length of time it is active we can certainly adjust how we protect ourselves.

 

[KINGS17]

It's getting crazy in Michigan.

Michigan Governor Issues New Emergency Orders After Legislature Refuses Extensions

The Democratic governor signed three new executive orders extending the state’s restrictions meant to slow the spread of COVID-19, the disease caused by the novel coronavirus. Under the orders, Whitmer stated that an emergency still exists under one law and declared a new 28-day state of emergency under another law.

“COVID-19 is an enemy that has taken the lives of more Michiganders than we lost during the Vietnam War,” Whitmer said in a statement. “While some members of the legislature might believe this crisis is over, common sense and all of the scientific data tells us we’re not out of the woods yet.

Confirmed COVID-19 Cases by Jurisdiction updated 5/1/2020

Extended the lockdown order for the entire state of Michigan for 28 days? Can Governor Whitmer see the Michigan forest for the Detroit City, McComb, Oakland, and Wayne county trees?

Coronavirus - Michigan Data

County	Confirmed Cases	Reported Deaths
Alcona	4	1
Allegan	104	2
Alpena	82	6
Antrim	10
Arenac	26	1
Baraga	1
Barry	36	1
Bay	150	6
Benzie	4
Berrien	263	15
Branch	64	2
Calhoun	231	15
Cass	30	2
Charlevoix	13	1
Cheboygan	19	1
Chippewa	2
Clare	11	1
Clinton	118	9
Crawford	53	4
Delta	13	2
Detroit City	9162	1040
Dickinson	3	2
Eaton	133	6
Emmet	21	2
Genesee	1600	192
Gladwin	16	1
Gogebic	4	1
Grand Traverse	19	5
Gratiot	21	1
Hillsdale	127	17
Houghton	2
Huron	19
Ingham	483	12
Ionia	80	2
Iosco	51	7
Isabella	60	7
Jackson	381	22
Kalamazoo	405	18
Kalkaska	17	2
Kent	1600	36
Lake	2
Lapeer	171	25
Leelanau	9
Lenawee	98	2
Livingston	343	19
Luce	1
Mackinac	6
Macomb	5623	614
Manistee	11
Marquette	50	8
Mason	10
Mecosta	14	1
Menominee	5
Midland	60	6
Missaukee	16	1
Monroe	296	12
Montcalm	40	1
Montmorency	5
Muskegon	288	17
Newaygo	24
Oakland	7423	705
Oceana	11	1
Ogemaw	14
Osceola	8
Oscoda	5
Otsego	92	8
Ottawa	254	11
Presque Isle	11
Roscommon	16
Saginaw	684	63
Sanilac	36	5
Schoolcraft	3
Shiawassee	183	12
St Clair	331	21
St Joseph	33	1
Tuscola	106	14
Van Buren	54	2
Washtenaw	1091	66
Wayne	7808	762
Wexford	9	2
MDOC*	1560	42
FCI**	90	2
Unknown	16	1
Out of State	8
Totals	42356	3866

[TBODY] [/TBODY]
[TBODY] [/TBODY]

 

[Fishhead]

Thanks for the links, I hadn't read much about indirect transmission. It was interesting that they said there is no evidence that the virus can survive outside the body for long. If we can find out more information about the length of time it is active we can certainly adjust how we protect ourselves.

That's the difficult part. They know the virus is there, but the tests don't gauge viability. If we knew the "for long" part it would be fantastic.

 

[Fishhead]

How many deaths per capita? There is no way to know without more testing how many people actually have contracted the virus in say Santa Ana vs HB, as more people in HB have access to a doctor who will prescribe a test.

I wish they released that, but they don't. Like you said, there are variables.

Overall OC only has 50 deaths with 61 in the ICU. We've done a good job down here, I think. We just had our biggest testing day, and unsurprisingly we had the most cases diagnosed by a good margin. It still pisses me off that testing isn't widespread. People are getting frustrated and antsy, but without knowing where the hotspots are everything is risky.

About 7% of our tests result in a diagnosis of COVID county wide. Our death rate from confirmed cases is about 2%. So pretty low by all accounts.

 

[The Tikkanen]

Main St in HB should be fun tomorrow

 

[Bandit]

Main St in HB should be fun tomorrow

Like a Petri dish without a lid.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

US Peaked but plateauing, explained by different rates in different states (of course, with NY/Washington State's early peaks and other states heading towards theirs now).

The good-ish news is it appears CA has peaked and is starting to fall--but we'll see very soon. What we know is Riverside County is a hotspot and OC is teetering at that peak too. And LA is absolutely on fire but it appears that's due to testing rather than infection activity.

 

[tny760]

interesting wording

 

[crassbonanza]

It's interesting that Dr. Ioannidis is getting a significant amount of media recently, he was on CNN, NYT did an article on him and The Sunday Times did one as well. He is a well regarded epidemiologist from Stanford who up until recently was pretty heavily criticized for being against the lockdown. He argued that the virus was much more widespread and less deadly to the majority of the population and seemingly went at odds with Fergusson. Now that we are getting more and more data backing up his claims it seems that he is getting a louder voice.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

Dr. Leonidas?!?

 

[HeadInjury]

Worldometers now has a California page with a breakdown of cases and deaths by county.

California Coronavirus: 54,923 Cases and 2,215 Deaths - Worldometer