General COVID-19 talk, NHL remains suspended MOD Warning post #1

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Thanks JS.

I will also point out that this epidemic has seen both Iran and China fully launch their citizen surveillance programs.


See? See what is at risk now?

Not really. Two authoritarian governments continuing policy they had already in place prior to the pandemic doesn't seem to increase whatever risk we as Americans would have within the country. The epidemic didn't launch anything China at least had all of these programs well in place before, have literally hundreds of thousands of government employees doing nothing every day but deleting message boards for censorship, and most of these programs date back to prior to the communists rising to power, even if they have expanded it over the last decade immensely.

You underestimate how hard and expensive it is to create a surveillance program. Evaluation of the post 9/11 actions by the US government, again and again, come up with the same conclusion. The feds have no idea what they know or don't know and also nearly no ability to follow single individuals or even groups without vast amounts of expenditure, and no apps/phones don't compensate for that financial issue. Hell, they had actual phone transcriptions of 9/11 suspects for years sitting around because the FBI didn't have enough people who could speak Arabic with clearance to go through all of it. Honestly, have you ever thought about how rare it would be for a criminal/terrorist/bad guy to actually talk about being one in relation to all the other reasons they use communication? You spend most of the time listening to people talk to their mother or organized a soccer game. It's not like in the movies these things aren't cheap, easy, or even wanted. The government doesn't care about you enough to want to know where you are or what you buy and it sure as heck isn't going to spend the money to find out. What would be the point?

Also no. The founding fathers did not think that being quarantined during a pandemic was undermining liberty. That would have been a common occurrence in that era and no these types of temporary issues are not some fundamental crisis of America. It isn't the first pandemic and it won't be the last.

If anything today's supreme court arguments are far more important then a few months of quarantine during a pandemic. If the administration wins then the congress losses the ability to force information from the executive branch, or at least from the treasury, which was a power they had since 1789 and in fact would allow Trump to shoot someone on 5th avenue and not only not be charged by any police force but also not even be investigated. Till he was no longer president. It's an order of magnitude more important than having to stay home so people don't die.
 
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How did this pandemic become political? I know this country is divided, but even for this issue?

Liberals: extend the stay-at-home order
Conservatives: Reopen ghe economy immediately

I'm as democratic as they come, but I'm kinda leaning towards reopening the economy asap
 
How did this pandemic become political? I know this country is divided, but even for this issue?

Liberals: extend the stay-at-home order
Conservatives: Reopen ghe economy immediately

I'm as democratic as they come, but I'm kinda leaning towards reopening the economy asap

Because it's actually not that binary, our politicians are just shitbags and they want you to pick sides, 'us vs. them' when in reality most of us can actually bridge the gap and make agreements. One of the drawbacks of the two-party system is the illusion that you have to identify as one or the other and doing so means you take upon all the baggage of the fringe loonies. I think most people hate it when you project an entire ideology onto them because of a stupid-ass label that changes values on a whim.

Hell, you just easily demonstrated how silly the partisan divide is.
 
How did this pandemic become political? I know this country is divided, but even for this issue?

Liberals: extend the stay-at-home order
Conservatives: Reopen ghe economy immediately

I'm as democratic as they come, but I'm kinda leaning towards reopening the economy asap

All by design, if the people are arguing with each other the leaders can act without being held accountable.

The overwhelming majority of American's can't separate themselves from their party line.
 
I don’t understand all the Draconian oppression talk. It seems alarmist and irrational to me.

We have liberty, rights, and freedoms granted to us...I’m with you on that. Don’t we also have a shared responsibility to listen to scientific consensus, data, and public health advice from experts, and then react to that accordingly?

If Newsom or Garcetti are going overboard with that (and I do think it’s possible that they are), why is that being construed as a malicious attack on liberty? Aren’t they reacting to science? Even if it’s an overreaction, how is it being construed as “they’re coming after muh rights”?

If any one of you were in charge, what amount of Covid cases (or deaths) would warrant keeping beaches and businesses closed? If someone disagreed with you and thought you were going overboard, are they justified in accusing you of trying to install a dictatorship? Wouldn’t that sound silly to you?
 
I don’t understand all the Draconian oppression talk. It seems alarmist and irrational to me.

We have liberty, rights, and freedoms granted to us...I’m with you on that. Don’t we also have a shared responsibility to listen to scientific consensus, data, and public health advice from experts, and then react to that accordingly?

If Newsom or Garcetti are going overboard with that (and I do think it’s possible that they are), why is that being construed as a malicious attack on liberty? Aren’t they reacting to science? Even if it’s an overreaction, how is it being construed as “they’re coming after muh rights”?

Uh, because it is? I love how the standard is no longer the Constitution but how bad it was under the Nazi's or current day China.

If any one of you were in charge, what amount of Covid cases (or deaths) would warrant keeping beaches and businesses closed? If someone disagreed with you and thought you were going overboard, are they justified in accusing you of trying to install a dictatorship? Wouldn’t that sound silly to you?
 
I don’t understand all the Draconian oppression talk. It seems alarmist and irrational to me.

We have liberty, rights, and freedoms granted to us...I’m with you on that. Don’t we also have a shared responsibility to listen to scientific consensus, data, and public health advice from experts, and then react to that accordingly?

If Newsom or Garcetti are going overboard with that (and I do think it’s possible that they are), why is that being construed as a malicious attack on liberty? Aren’t they reacting to science? Even if it’s an overreaction, how is it being construed as “they’re coming after muh rights”?

If any one of you were in charge, what amount of Covid cases (or deaths) would warrant keeping beaches and businesses closed? If someone disagreed with you and thought you were going overboard, are they justified in accusing you of trying to install a dictatorship? Wouldn’t that sound silly to you?

Listening to science is fine...but selectively listening to only the science that agrees with a certain agenda is the malicious part. There is plenty of science that says the IFR is much lower than initially believed. There is science that say MILLIONS are expected to fall ill with Tuberculosis as a result of the lockdown. There is plenty of science that poverty causes death. There is plenty of evidence that hospitals are NOT overwhelmed. There is plenty of evidence that the lockdowns are CREATING a ton of problems that may or may not be more severe than the virus itself. There is plenty of evidence that the lockdowns are NOT as effective as officials initially thought they would be.

Yesterday Newsom said counties could only go faster than the state if they have ZERO deaths for 14 consecutive days. In San Diego county last year there were ~330 flu deaths. Almost 1 per day. Why is the standard magnitudes different for this virus than one we've been living with for ages?

If he only listens and reacts to one side of the story it's not science that's guiding him, it's his own politics. That's the problem. That's why people are calling him a dictator.
 
Listening to science is fine...but selectively listening to only the science that agrees with a certain agenda is the malicious part. There is plenty of science that says the IFR is much lower than initially believed. There is science that say MILLIONS are expected to fall ill with Tuberculosis as a result of the lockdown. There is plenty of science that poverty causes death. There is plenty of evidence that hospitals are NOT overwhelmed. There is plenty of evidence that the lockdowns are CREATING a ton of problems that may or may not be more severe than the virus itself. There is plenty of evidence that the lockdowns are NOT as effective as officials initially thought they would be.

Yesterday Newsom said counties could only go faster than the state if they have ZERO deaths for 14 consecutive days. In San Diego county last year there were ~330 flu deaths. Almost 1 per day. Why is the standard magnitudes different for this virus than one we've been living with for ages?

If he only listens and reacts to one side of the story it's not science that's guiding him, it's his own politics. That's the problem. That's why people are calling him a dictator.

So to you, Newsom isn’t overreacting, he’s actually attempting to remove rights and liberties as part of a larger attempt to install a dictatorship...over California?
 
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Listening to science is fine...but selectively listening to only the science that agrees with a certain agenda is the malicious part. There is plenty of science that says the IFR is much lower than initially believed. There is science that say MILLIONS are expected to fall ill with Tuberculosis as a result of the lockdown. There is plenty of science that poverty causes death. There is plenty of evidence that hospitals are NOT overwhelmed. There is plenty of evidence that the lockdowns are CREATING a ton of problems that may or may not be more severe than the virus itself. There is plenty of evidence that the lockdowns are NOT as effective as officials initially thought they would be.

Yesterday Newsom said counties could only go faster than the state if they have ZERO deaths for 14 consecutive days. In San Diego county last year there were ~330 flu deaths. Almost 1 per day. Why is the standard magnitudes different for this virus than one we've been living with for ages?

If he only listens and reacts to one side of the story it's not science that's guiding him, it's his own politics. That's the problem. That's why people are calling him a dictator.

In what way is it his politics that is pushing this “agenda”?
 
LA County is going to stay locked down until the end of July. This will be fun to watch from Ventura County.
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Listening to science is fine...but selectively listening to only the science that agrees with a certain agenda is the malicious part. There is plenty of science that says the IFR is much lower than initially believed. There is science that say MILLIONS are expected to fall ill with Tuberculosis as a result of the lockdown. There is plenty of science that poverty causes death. There is plenty of evidence that hospitals are NOT overwhelmed. There is plenty of evidence that the lockdowns are CREATING a ton of problems that may or may not be more severe than the virus itself. There is plenty of evidence that the lockdowns are NOT as effective as officials initially thought they would be.

Yesterday Newsom said counties could only go faster than the state if they have ZERO deaths for 14 consecutive days. In San Diego county last year there were ~330 flu deaths. Almost 1 per day. Why is the standard magnitudes different for this virus than one we've been living with for ages?

If he only listens and reacts to one side of the story it's not science that's guiding him, it's his own politics. That's the problem. That's why people are calling him a dictator.


You answered your own question.

We've been living with the flu for ages. We know how it transmits. We have definite data, and yearly actionable plans. We have both insanely effective treatments and a constantly-updated vaccine. And also, it pretty quickly knocks you on your ass before you can spread it too much.

We've been living with this coronavirus for months. We still don't know quite how it transmits, to mitigate that (masks? No masks? Sunlight? Soap? 6 feet? What the f*** are we even doing?). Our data is shit, and we don't have a cohesive action plan. We don't even have a commonly agreed-upon treatment, much less a ubiquitous, effective one, and a vaccine is at least months away. And the biggest problem built on all the rest--in many cases it DOESN'T knock you on your ass before you get the opportunity to unknowingly spread it for literally weeks.

We're all flying relatively blind with theories and projections based on what we know--and as you say, we don't know with certainty that the resultant problems may/will be more severe than the ones caused by locking down, we're all just making calculated guesses based on the garbage available evidence and arguing our cases that there's some convergence at which virus risk mitigation is more problematic than other societal risk mitigation. The problem for leadership vs. the average resident is that Newsom's decisions affect millions of lives and there's no clear right answer--it's lose-lose no matter what at this stage, and he has to make the same shitty guess we all do, except he'll be the one burdened with the results.
 
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Does anybody have a link on how many NEW cases per week each county has in California? That would be interesting to know. I now live in WA, that took a lot time to find. Almost like if they don't want you to see those numbers. I live in Thurston Co (which house the state capital) and we have averaged 8-13 new cases per week the last 5 weeks. With a peek of 26 and 36 the weeks prior.
 
Does anybody have a link on how many NEW cases per week each county has in California? That would be interesting to know. I now live in WA, that took a lot time to find. Almost like if they don't want you to see those numbers. I live in Thurston Co (which house the state capital) and we have averaged 8-13 new cases per week the last 5 weeks. With a peek of 26 and 36 the weeks prior.

3 second google search:

California coronavirus cases: Tracking the outbreak

I'm sure there are other sources.
 
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View attachment 345972

The most recent data point minus the last one = new?
I think seeing the actual new numbers per week gives folks an idea where how much its still spreading. Im not a fan of the cumulative because because lots of the folks are no longer infected.

Here is the a list i found for my County
https://www.thurstoncountywa.gov/phss/phssdocuments/ThurstonCOVID19WeeklyReport5-10-20.pdf
I feel this should be something important to know, so folks can make an educated statement towards their federal, state, gov't or businesses.
 
This is my favorite general one. Can just click on california, then click on each county. It will link source each data source for you, and will do cumulative cases/deaths/recoveries as well as new cases/deaths/recoveries (though you'll notice some counties keep incomplete and weird data, and quirks like sundays seem like no reports (0) with mondays basically double death tolls).

COVID-19/Coronavirus Real Time Updates With Credible Sources in US and Canada | 1Point3Acres
 
So to you, Newsom isn’t overreacting, he’s actually attempting to remove rights and liberties as part of a larger attempt to install a dictatorship...over California?

Well I don't personally think he's trying to be the dictator of CA. I understand why people are saying that though. He is however making people more and more dependent on the government by forcing a continued lockdown, giving justification for more government programs, more bureaucracy, etc (this is what I consider pushing his agenda).

You answered your own question.

We've been living with the flu for ages. We know how it transmits. We have definite data, and yearly actionable plans. We have both insanely effective treatments and a constantly-updated vaccine. And also, it pretty quickly knocks you on your ass before you can spread it too much.

We've been living with this coronavirus for months. We still don't know quite how it transmits, to mitigate that (masks? No masks? Sunlight? Soap? 6 feet? What the f*** are we even doing?). Our data is shit, and we don't have a cohesive action plan. We don't even have a commonly agreed-upon treatment, much less a ubiquitous, effective one, and a vaccine is at least months away. And the biggest problem built on all the rest--in many cases it DOESN'T knock you on your ass before you get the opportunity to unknowingly spread it for literally weeks.

We're all flying relatively blind with theories and projections based on what we know--and as you say, we don't know with certainty that the resultant problems may/will be more severe than the ones caused by locking down, we're all just making calculated guesses based on the garbage available evidence and arguing our cases that there's some convergence at which virus risk mitigation is more problematic than other societal risk mitigation. The problem for leadership vs. the average resident is that Newsom's decisions affect millions of lives and there's no clear right answer--it's lose-lose no matter what at this stage, and he has to make the same shitty guess we all do, except he'll be the one burdened with the results.

I agree there is no good solution. My point is just that policy has not been adjusted to what we have learned. We didn't go into the lockdown with the expectation that we would 100% understand the virus before restrictions were lifted. We did it to not overwhelm the healthcare system, so that those that do get sick will have access to hospital beds, ventilators and doctors. The goalposts have shifted, and that is the most frustrating thing to me and to lots of other people.

People ARE going to get sick. We can't, and aren't 100% preventing the virus from spreading. We don't need to also destroy every other aspect of our lives.
 
Well I don't personally think he's trying to be the dictator of CA. I understand why people are saying that though. He is however making people more and more dependent on the government by forcing a continued lockdown, giving justification for more government programs, more bureaucracy, etc (this is what I consider pushing his agenda).



I agree there is no good solution. My point is just that policy has not been adjusted to what we have learned. We didn't go into the lockdown with the expectation that we would 100% understand the virus before restrictions were lifted. We did it to not overwhelm the healthcare system, so that those that do get sick will have access to hospital beds, ventilators and doctors. The goalposts have shifted, and that is the most frustrating thing to me and to lots of other people.

People ARE going to get sick. We can't, and aren't 100% preventing the virus from spreading. We don't need to also destroy every other aspect of our lives.
If this is "data and science" driven, the data shows Los Angeles County as the only county in California having a major problem. Within Los Angeles County the city of Los Angeles proper is the biggest problem. Cities with cases in the double-digits only, have a case for re-opening. The one size fits all approach is not working, and is doing far more damage to the health and well being of the citizens of the cities which do not have a major problem.

We were never promised zero risk individually, and we should never expect zero risk. You are correct Newsom and the LA County Supervisors have moved the goalposts.

LA County Department of Public Health
 
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