General COVID-19 Talk #4 MOD Warning

[KINGS17]

Obviously not to cheapen it at all but it makes me wonder how long this was spreading before people started being attentive and testing again

Many thousand steps closer to greater herd immunity would be my guess.

 

[KINGS17]

COVID: Omicron may cut Delta infections, even as US and UK hit record coronavirus infections

Johannesburg: The Omicron variant that’s sweeping around the world is not “the same disease we were seeing a year ago,” says a top University of Oxford immunologist, reinforcing reports about the strain’s milder nature.

The strain first discovered at the end of November appears to be less severe and even patients who do end up in the hospital spend less time there, John Bell, Regius professor of medicine at Oxford, said on BBC Radio 4’s Today program.

Omicron has been shown to be highly transmissible and can evade some antibodies but, after two weeks of getting symptoms, immunity to subsequent infections from the strain rose 14-fold, according to the authors led by Alex Sigal and Khadija Khan of the Durban, South Africa-based Africa Health Research Institute. A smaller improvement was found against Delta, they said.

“If we are lucky, Omicron is less pathogenic, and this immunity will help push Delta out,” said Sigal, who has previously found a two-dose course of Pfizer and BioNTech SE’s COVID-19 shot as well as a previous infection may give stronger protection against Omicron.

The latest findings suggest the likelihood of someone infected with Omicron being reinfected by Delta is limited, reducing the presence of the latter strain. Omicron is the dominant variant in South Africa’s fourth wave of infections, delivering record case numbers, and is fast becoming the dominant strain globally.

 

[Papa Mocha 15]

Not to piss on a party or news on Omicron, but pediatric cases are spiking up fast and down the East coast. This maybe a shit version for kids while not as horrible for adults (vaccinated). I know it's a colder climate out there on the East Coast but what concerned me is that when we get a surge, the hospital plans by loading up beds in the basement for distribution. Yesterday, for the first time they were lining up pediatric beds and cribs in my hospital. I've not heard any announcement yet and I'm not sure if I would ever hear one. But we have not seen or prepared for kids before so it's kind of like an oh shit moment before kids go back to school. Right now, I'm mostly seeing RSV infections on the census which is a nasty respiratory bug that hits kids hard. It's very seasonal but we're getting more admissions. I get it. However, we don't pull beds for a surge on this and we're doing that now. That's concerning. I hope it's a false alarm in our region but time will tell.

Covid, while awful for adults, has spared children in terms of severe disease. However, new variant, new game. I'm not sure how optimistic I am that kids are not going to get swept up in this based on the initial info. Kids back east are coming in with respiratory distress, but also dehydrated which is never a good combo because it stresses the heart and breathing from thick sections because of the dehydration so they get tougher to treat and suction etc. I'm getting concerned. This is new and we don't have much info on how this is hitting kids. I'm waiting for more info from Infectious Disease docs from their local regions and will follow that as it comes out but also for larger announcements from bio stats. We'll know more as this progresses. If someone has kids, hope they are vaccinated. I don't want to read about anyone losing a kid on this board or going through almost losing one because we got hit and didn't prep ourselves. Most will be ok but kids in the hospital are never easy to watch. We'll know more through January.

400% increase in hospitalizations NY.

Child COVID-19 hospitalizations up nearly 400 percent in New York City

Georgia During the week before Christmas, cases rose 63% among children ages 0 to 4 and 120% among children ages 5 to 17, according to state health data.

Cases of COVID-19, hospitalizations rising swiftly among Georgia children

 

[KINGS17]

Not to piss on a party or news on Omicron, but pediatric cases are spiking up fast and down the East coast. This maybe a shit version for kids while not as horrible for adults (vaccinated). I know it's a colder climate out there on the East Coast but what concerned me is that when we get a surge, the hospital plans by loading up beds in the basement for distribution. Yesterday, for the first time they were lining up pediatric beds and cribs in my hospital. I've not heard any announcement yet and I'm not sure if I would ever hear one. But we have not seen or prepared for kids before so it's kind of like an oh shit moment before kids go back to school. Right now, I'm mostly seeing RSV infections on the census which is a nasty respiratory bug that hits kids hard. It's very seasonal but we're getting more admissions. I get it. However, we don't pull beds for a surge on this and we're doing that now. That's concerning. I hope it's a false alarm in our region but time will tell.

Covid, while awful for adults, has spared children in terms of severe disease. However, new variant, new game. I'm not sure how optimistic I am that kids are not going to get swept up in this based on the initial info. Kids back east are coming in with respiratory distress, but also dehydrated which is never a good combo because it stresses the heart and breathing from thick sections because of the dehydration so they get tougher to treat and suction etc. I'm getting concerned. This is new and we don't have much info on how this is hitting kids. I'm waiting for more info from Infectious Disease docs from their local regions and will follow that as it comes out but also for larger announcements from bio stats. We'll know more as this progresses. If someone has kids, hope they are vaccinated. I don't want to read about anyone losing a kid on this board or going through almost losing one because we got hit and didn't prep ourselves. Most will be ok but kids in the hospital are never easy to watch. We'll know more through January.

400% increase in hospitalizations NY.

Child COVID-19 hospitalizations up nearly 400 percent in New York City

Georgia During the week before Christmas, cases rose 63% among children ages 0 to 4 and 120% among children ages 5 to 17, according to state health data.

Cases of COVID-19, hospitalizations rising swiftly among Georgia children

Up 400% from what original number? When I see percentages instead of raw data, I get suspicious.

 

[SmytheKing]

Up 400% from what original number? When I see percentages instead of raw data, I get suspicious.

From the first two paragraphs of the linked article:

Pediatric COVID-19 hospitalizations in New York City rose by roughly 400 percent in December as the highly transmissible omicron variant spread throughout the state
From Dec. 11 to 23, the number of children in New York City hospitalized with COVID-19 rose by 395 percent, WABC-TV reported. The number of cases rose from 22 to 109 in the city, while the number of cases statewide rose from 70 to 184.

 

[KINGS17]

From the first two paragraphs of the linked article:

Pediatric COVID-19 hospitalizations in New York City rose by roughly 400 percent in December as the highly transmissible omicron variant spread throughout the state
From Dec. 11 to 23, the number of children in New York City hospitalized with COVID-19 rose by 395 percent, WABC-TV reported. The number of cases rose from 22 to 109 in the city, while the number of cases statewide rose from 70 to 184.

Again, 400% means nothing. Four times what number were hospitalized? Was it 2 x 4 = 8? You will notice that immediately after throwing out the 400% rise in hospitalizations (which is a dead giveaway the author isn't being straight with you), the author immediately switches to discussing raw numbers when it comes to cases. Cases mean nothing. As always, it is the raw numbers for hospitalizations and deaths that matter.

Also, from one of the linked articles:

Hospitalizations among children are also on a swift incline. During the last week in November, 18 children were hospitalized with COVID-19.

Children’s Healthcare of Atlanta said that as of Dec. 28, there are 77 children in their hospitals with the virus, up from 22 children the week of Dec. 21, which represents a 250% increase. Hospital officials said most of the children hospitalized have pre-existing conditions.

Most of the children hospitalized have pre-existing conditions. Well, if they have pre-existing conditions and are at-risk, had they been vaccinated? Well, here it is from the same article:

“Today we’ve hit numbers that are higher than we had during the delta surge back in the summertime,” Fortenberry said. “In our children who are hospitalized with COVID-19, over 90% of them are not vaccinated.”

If you are vaccinated, or are young and in good health, there is little to fear. People in this country have the freedom to make choices, and sometimes there are consequences.

 

[Kudelski37]

A NYT article from yesterday quoted hospital officials that the vast majority of the kids with covid they are seeing are for unrelated issues. This is why the 400% number is meaningless. The important number is the number of kids admitted because of covid.

 

[Schrute farms]

A NYT article from yesterday quoted hospital officials that the vast majority of the kids with covid they are seeing are for unrelated issues. This is why the 400% number is meaningless. The important number is the number of kids admitted because of covid.

In addition, the health situation of the kid is equally important to determine the level of concern / freak out. If it's solely/mainly kids with pre-existing conditions, then there you go. Those at risk, whether young or old, should 100% get the vax and take as much precautions as they can to stay healthy. But until it starts majorly hitting healthy/fit kids, then it's not something to freak out about. Those 400% increase headlines are media fear tactics for hits/views.

It's like an overweight person running a marathon without any pre-training. Yes, it will end badly for them. That doesn't mean we should end marathons because they put people in hospitals or even kill them. Or even rock climbing, sky-diving, climbing mountains, etc. People with type 2 diabetes, obesity, heart disease, etc. should not be eating fast food all the time....but to my knowledge, we're not banning/closing fast-food establishments are we?

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

In addition, the health situation of the kid is equally important to determine the level of concern / freak out. If it's solely/mainly kids with pre-existing conditions, then there you go. Those at risk, whether young or old, should 100% get the vax and take as much precautions as they can to stay healthy. But until it starts majorly hitting healthy/fit kids, then it's not something to freak out about. Those 400% increase headlines are media fear tactics for hits/views.

It's like an overweight person running a marathon without any pre-training. Yes, it will end badly for them. That doesn't mean we should end marathons because they put people in hospitals or even kill them. Or even rock climbing, sky-diving, climbing mountains, etc. People with type 2 diabetes, obesity, heart disease, etc. should not be eating fast food all the time....but to my knowledge, we're not banning/closing fast-food establishments are we?

None of those things are contagious. You're not going to accidentally run a marathon or trip and accidentally ingest a cheeseburger.

I have an 8 year old with asthma. Obviously we're managing her risk as best as possible but it's not as simple as "hey honey try not to run any marathons today okay?"

 

[Lt Dan]

Regarding the cases

Hosp way up again 376--->420
ICU 72--->86

 

[Lt Dan]

I have an 8 year old with asthma. Obviously we're managing her risk as best as possible but it's not as simple as "hey honey try not to run any marathons today okay?"

Not to mock her 1% as I have asthma, but did anyone else read this part like those funny google search results memes?

Everyone have a safe and sane New Years and don't accidently summon any lemon demons!

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

"Help I accidentally restarted the USSR" is a hell of a search

 

[Papa Mocha 15]

Up 400% from what original number? When I see percentages instead of raw data, I get suspicious.

If I post links, that data is often in there for you to read, but I can work on phrasing them into harder numbers. Don't be lazy though and always look for info to be spoon-fed. It's like always wanting to be on the bottom, while fun, it's a two way street, can't be lazy

So, the number of cases rose from 22 to 109 in the city, while the number of cases statewide rose from 70 to 184. That's over a 12 day period. That's a very good sized jump, prior to the holiday gatherings. Also, note none of these children were vaccinated in NYC.

From Georgia, the quote was that "“Today we’ve hit numbers that are higher than we had during the delta surge back in the summertime,” Fortenberry said. “In our children who are hospitalized with COVID-19, over 90% of them are not vaccinated.” If you read the graph, the spike has a sharper incline on hospitalization over a shorter period of time and kids aren't even back in school yet. I don't know if this is more deadly but admissions are up and that's not a good sign.

While our numbers dropped in November, that was before Omicron hit us. Delta was on it's way down and this is a new variant with a new morphology that we know very little.
The only thing I can conclude when looking at multiple areas back east is that our numbers are going up and based on what I"m seeing locally, my hospital is preparing for a wave of children. School restarts next week. That's not a good sign. I think we're gonna see a spike here too.

But I hope you're right. I hope that this is going to be more focused on pre-existing conditions and it is mild in nature But I won't bet on that because these are kids. We haven't done studies on our own yet and we are relying on outside data from other countries so I'm not comfortable based on that assumption that it's all preexisting conditions. We just don't have that kind of data. However, we do know that vaccines are keeping kids out of the hospitals based on at least 90% of the kids are not vaccinated. That's the key here.

BTW, something of topic and interesting to note. The county is doing the speciating of the variants. The hospitals are not involved on that side if anyone wants to know how they track who has what variant. It's more of Public Health tracking so we know what's going on in the immediate area.

 

[KINGS17]

If I post links, that data is often in there for you to read, but I can work on phrasing them into harder numbers. Don't be lazy though and always look for info to be spoon-fed. It's like always wanting to be on the bottom, while fun, it's a two way street, can't be lazy

So, the number of cases rose from 22 to 109 in the city, while the number of cases statewide rose from 70 to 184. That's over a 12 day period. That's a very good sized jump, prior to the holiday gatherings. Also, note none of these children were vaccinated in NYC.

From Georgia, the quote was that "“Today we’ve hit numbers that are higher than we had during the delta surge back in the summertime,” Fortenberry said. “In our children who are hospitalized with COVID-19, over 90% of them are not vaccinated.” If you read the graph, the spike has a sharper incline on hospitalization over a shorter period of time and kids aren't even back in school yet. I don't know if this is more deadly but admissions are up and that's not a good sign.

While our numbers dropped in November, that was before Omicron hit us. Delta was on it's way down and this is a new variant with a new morphology that we know very little.
The only thing I can conclude when looking at multiple areas back east is that our numbers are going up and based on what I"m seeing locally, my hospital is preparing for a wave of children. School restarts next week. That's not a good sign. I think we're gonna see a spike here too.

But I hope you're right. I hope that this is going to be more focused on pre-existing conditions and it is mild in nature But I won't bet on that because these are kids. We haven't done studies on our own yet and we are relying on outside data from other countries so I'm not comfortable based on that assumption that it's all preexisting conditions. We just don't have that kind of data. However, we do know that vaccines are keeping kids out of the hospitals based on at least 90% of the kids are not vaccinated. That's the key here.

BTW, something of topic and interesting to note. The county is doing the speciating of the variants. The hospitals are not involved on that side if anyone wants to know how they track who has what variant. It's more of Public Health tracking so we know what's going on in the immediate area.

It's not about me being right. The data is the data. Read and interpret it as you choose. My interpretation is my well-founded opinion, and is based on the data.

Also, if you don't want to give a complete picture of the data, better to just not post anything.

 

[BigBrown]

From now on only post gigantic spread sheets and tables of numbers, please.

 

[Papa Mocha 15]

It's not about me being right. The data is the data. Read and interpret it as you choose. My interpretation is my well-founded opinion, and is based on the data.

Also, if you don't want to give a complete picture of the data, better to just not post anything.

I was being sincere. I hope you are right. Not in an ego sense, because I do hope this is mild. But the speed in which the numbers are accelerating suggests that numbers just went up in a short period of time and in more than one place. I'm saying I'm concerned.

I take care of people for a living in their worst states, I have put in way more hours than you ever will and held way more hands than you ever have . It is BS to think that this only affects pre-existing conditions and that you're safe if you're otherwise healthy. It's a tagline. When my own hospital, a Level 1 at that, is lining up children's beds in the alley, that catches my attention. That paired with cities talking about children's numbers going up, I can fairly say it's concerning. I didn't say it's doom and gloom but I think it's worth stressing to others the importance of vaccination. It's not just look at pretty picture but look at the big picture from multiple places in the US and see that something is coming. I also commented that we'll know more later. That's not cherry picking. That's putting the story together. If you don't like it, ignore is your friend. They do say ignorance is bliss.

But I hope you don't. I enjoy the banter. Nurses are the worst sadists and you bring out the best in me. Hope you have a good New Year. And I do mean that

 

[KINGS17]

I was being sincere. I hope you are right. Not in an ego sense, because I do hope this is mild. But the speed in which the numbers are accelerating suggests that numbers just went up in a short period of time and in more than one place. I'm saying I'm concerned.

I take care of people for a living in their worst states, I have put in way more hours than you ever will and held way more hands than you ever have . It is BS to think that this only affects pre-existing conditions and that you're safe if you're otherwise healthy. It's a tagline. When my own hospital, a Level 1 at that, is lining up children's beds in the alley, that catches my attention. That paired with cities talking about children's numbers going up, I can fairly say it's concerning. I didn't say it's doom and gloom but I think it's worth stressing to others the importance of vaccination. It's not just look at pretty picture but look at the big picture from multiple places in the US and see that something is coming. I also commented that we'll know more later. That's not cherry picking. That's putting the story together. If you don't like it, ignore is your friend. They do say ignorance is bliss.

But I hope you don't. I enjoy the banter. Nurses are the worst sadists and you bring out the best in me. Hope you have a good New Year. And I do mean that

I am sure you have held more hands, etc. It is part of your job, not part of mine, so I thank you for that. Did I say it only affects people with pre-existing conditions? No.

It is BS to suggest it affects people who are vaccinated, or are young without pre-existing conditions in large numbers. This is shown in the data, and is a fact.

I don't put people on ignore. I want to see different points of view. The fact that you are so close to it does not mean you are accurately presenting the data in your posts. That was my sole beef with your post. The media in this country has done everything it can to report bad news on COVID and they often exaggerate the impact without giving complete information.

If you are concerned, that's your right. I am no longer going to run scared every time I see a number like a 400% increase until I see it in the proper context. Hope you have a good New Year as well.

 

[KINGS17]

From now on only post gigantic spread sheets and tables of numbers, please.

Post whatever you want. If the information is incomplete, it may be questioned.

 

[RonM11]

COVID: Omicron may cut Delta infections, even as US and UK hit record coronavirus infections

Johannesburg: The Omicron variant that’s sweeping around the world is not “the same disease we were seeing a year ago,” says a top University of Oxford immunologist, reinforcing reports about the strain’s milder nature.

The strain first discovered at the end of November appears to be less severe and even patients who do end up in the hospital spend less time there, John Bell, Regius professor of medicine at Oxford, said on BBC Radio 4’s Today program.

Omicron has been shown to be highly transmissible and can evade some antibodies but, after two weeks of getting symptoms, immunity to subsequent infections from the strain rose 14-fold, according to the authors led by Alex Sigal and Khadija Khan of the Durban, South Africa-based Africa Health Research Institute. A smaller improvement was found against Delta, they said.

“If we are lucky, Omicron is less pathogenic, and this immunity will help push Delta out,” said Sigal, who has previously found a two-dose course of Pfizer and BioNTech SE’s COVID-19 shot as well as a previous infection may give stronger protection against Omicron.

The latest findings suggest the likelihood of someone infected with Omicron being reinfected by Delta is limited, reducing the presence of the latter strain. Omicron is the dominant variant in South Africa’s fourth wave of infections, delivering record case numbers, and is fast becoming the dominant strain globally.

You don't need a study to know that Omicron will eventually cannibalize and destroy Delta. That's what infectious virus variants do...they compete with each other.

Just using the USA as an example:

Alpha eventually destroyed the original wild virus last winter.

Delta eventually destroyed Alpha in the Summer, and held off Beta, Gamma, Epsilon, Lambda, and Mu variants, which never gained a foothold in the USA. Mu was eradicated in the process.

 

[RonM11]

View attachment 494261
View attachment 494262

Regarding the cases

Hosp way up again 376--->420
ICU 72--->86

It's going to be a horrible January. I'll say it again: "sheer numbers." 99.9% of the "sheer numbers" can be ok. But that means 1 in 1,000 will either die or have long-covid, and that is a true travesty. Some of us here plainly don't understand the arithmetical concept.

 

[RonM11]

None of those things are contagious. You're not going to accidentally run a marathon or trip and accidentally ingest a cheeseburger.

I have an 8 year old with asthma. Obviously we're managing her risk as best as possible but it's not as simple as "hey honey try not to run any marathons today okay?"

If one doesn't have such experiences, it's almost impossible to discuss or reason with them, unless they have empathy. It's also quite easy not to have empathy on an anonymous bulletin board.

I understand your situation. My son is 27 and although his asthma has been in a sort of remission for about eight years now, his body has been affected by repeated bouts during his younger and his teenage years. He contracted COVID-19 last week and had to go to the ER twice in the past few days...Tuesday in particular didn't look great. He's back at home now, hacking up his lungs, but it appears he will be ok. I had begged both my kids to get the booster, and perhaps the other one will do it now...my son is convinced. Once he gets better, he's getting it.

By the way, you don't want to get this now. The ERs are a zoo, and he had to wait 3 hours to get a bed. I'm told this was a minimum amount of time that day. Another four hours in the bed, and they treated him with steroids, a flu shot (to relieve symptoms, didn't know they had that added benefit), and a whole trove of other drugs I'm only beginning to research now what they do.

 

[Bandit]

If one doesn't have such experiences, it's almost impossible to discuss or reason with them, unless they have empathy. It's also quite easy not to have empathy on an anonymous bulletin board.

If the last 5 years have taught me anything, it's that empathy is dead.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

If one doesn't have such experiences, it's almost impossible to discuss or reason with them, unless they have empathy. It's also quite easy not to have empathy on an anonymous bulletin board.

I understand your situation. My son is 27 and although his asthma has been in a sort of remission for about eight years now, his body has been affected by repeated bouts during his younger and his teenage years. He contracted COVID-19 last week and had to go to the ER twice in the past few days...Tuesday in particular didn't look great. He's back at home now, hacking up his lungs, but it appears he will be ok. I had begged both my kids to get the booster, and perhaps the other one will do it now...my son is convinced. Once he gets better, he's getting it.

By the way, you don't want to get this now. The ERs are a zoo, and he had to wait 3 hours to get a bed. I'm told this was a minimum amount of time that day. Another four hours in the bed, and they treated him with steroids, a flu shot (to relieve symptoms, didn't know they had that added benefit), and a whole trove of other drugs I'm only beginning to research now what they do.

Yeah, my dad recently had a major heart surgery, and there's no way he's getting back in for a follow up anytime soon. We're backed up again and that's bad for not just covid but for everything and the sanity of our health workers.

I'm glad your son is okay. My younger daughter cannot get vaccinated due to a combo of other meds and conditions so it's just a tough scenario--on one hand I totally get the world can't hold back for her, but on the other, there's not much more we can do to keep her safe when others can't /don't help. So it sucks but we've had to scale back social activities for her at an age when it's vital and she is really bummed. Fortunately she's a bit of a gamer so at least she has an excuse now, lol. I guess in the end I'm just trying to illustrate it's not as simple as it seems even within an immediate family unit, the world could use more sympathy and caring even if there are hard, cold, logical decisions to be made.

 

[KINGS17]

It's going to be a horrible January. I'll say it again: "sheer numbers." 99.9% of the "sheer numbers" can be ok. But that means 1 in 1,000 will either die or have long-covid, and that is a true travesty. Some of us here plainly don't understand the arithmetical concept.

I can assure you I understand mathematics and probability analysis as well as, or better than most. I do risk analysis and certify aircraft type designs using probability analysis for a living, and have done it for over 35 years. So, I know BS when I see it, and understand every percentage must be evaluated in its proper context, and has a level of confidence associated with it.

Hope your son is feeling better soon.

 

[KINGS17]

Yeah, my dad recently had a major heart surgery, and there's no way he's getting back in for a follow up anytime soon. We're backed up again and that's bad for not just covid but for everything and the sanity of our health workers.

I'm glad your son is okay. My younger daughter cannot get vaccinated due to a combo of other meds and conditions so it's just a tough scenario--on one hand I totally get the world can't hold back for her, but on the other, there's not much more we can do to keep her safe when others can't /don't help. So it sucks but we've had to scale back social activities for her at an age when it's vital and she is really bummed. Fortunately she's a bit of a gamer so at least she has an excuse now, lol. I guess in the end I'm just trying to illustrate it's not as simple as it seems even within an immediate family unit, the world could use more sympathy and caring even if there are hard, cold, logical decisions to be made.

Man, that sucks for you and your daughter. Hope this turns around soon, so she can get back to a more normal social schedule and life. Did you get her an e-Nintendo card for Christmas?