General COVID-19 Talk #4 MOD Warning

[Kudelski37]

So, after being mega-sick last year, and getting three Pfizer doses this year, guess who has two thumbs and a breakthru infection?

So far it's just a super annoying head cold so crossing my fingers. I'd like to lose 20 pounds again but not like that!

Almost certainly came from the same unvaccinated family member that gave it to everyone last year, and pretty well true to the stats, the only one near hospitalization is the unvaccinated fam. member, everyone else has had at least two shots and is in the same shape as me.

Just in case you need to know why I'm extra grumpy with no hockey this week.

Rest up and watch some videos from the 2012 and 2014 runs. Hope you feel better soon RJ.

 

[RonM11]

I am fully vaccinated, but thanks for your concern. I am just not into the fear hype machine you are trying to run here regarding the Omicron variant.

So says you. Unless you are some super-scientist with Ouija-type prediction capabilities, it is far too early to be deeming Omicron as a benign variant. Like I said, let's compare notes in two months and see who lands where.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

Feel better man. Was it the same family member, or a different person in the family who you think infected you this time?

One of the symptoms of Omicron is being described as a scratchy throat, as opposed to a sore throat. Are you experiencing that symptom?

Our best guess is it's the same person, based on activities and timeline. But I've been pretty reckless since I got my booster too so who knows.

I can definitely say I'm experiencing the 'scratchy' throat, kind of like a cough needs to happen to clear it out but it won't. Very annoying. Luckily, that's about all it is at this point.

 

[KINGS17]

Our best guess is it's the same person, based on activities and timeline. But I've been pretty reckless since I got my booster too so who knows.

I can definitely say I'm experiencing the 'scratchy' throat, kind of like a cough needs to happen to clear it out but it won't. Very annoying. Luckily, that's about all it is at this point.

Yeah, definitely sounds like Omicron. Hang tough, and feel better by Christmas Eve.

 

[KINGS17]

So says you. Unless you are some super-scientist with Ouija-type prediction capabilities, it is far too early to be deeming Omicron as a benign variant. Like I said, let's compare notes in two months and see who lands where.

I don't need a Ouija board. I know how to search the internet for data, and I can read and understand it. You should give it a try, instead of panicking.

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

One out of every 100 cases currently seeks hospital care in Africa’s last absolute monarchy, which neighbors South Africa. That’s compared with one in 25 during the peak of the last wave in August.

“This is an indication that much fewer people are getting severe disease that requires admission,” the government said in a statement posted on Twitter Monday. “More than 80% of those admitted are not vaccinated.”

The findings from the country of 1.2 million people suggests that omicron may lead to less severe disease, even if it is far more transmissible than previous variants. Eswatini said at least 38% of Covid-19 test samples collected between November 24 and 29 were found to be the omicron variant. South Africa announced the discovery of the new strain on Nov. 25.

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

Only 1.7% of identified Covid-19 cases were admitted to hospital in the second week of infections in the fourth wave, compared with 19% in the same week of the third delta-driven wave, South African Health Minister Joe Phaahla said at a press conference.

The number of Covid-19 hospitalizations in this wave is also being inflated by the fact that milder patients are being admitted because there is room to accommodate them. Many are there for other complaints but are routinely tested, according to health officials.

“We have seen a decrease in a proportion of people who need to be on oxygen,” Jassat said at the press conference. “They are at very low levels.”

By the way the man in Texas who passed with the Omicron variant, was over 50 years of age, with multiple underlying health conditions, and was not vaccinated. Sadly, he made a bad decision in not getting vaccinated.

 

[RonM11]

You actually might opt for compassion, keyboard warrior. Or at least realize that COVID as experienced in South Africa is far different than what is happening in the UK, the EA, and perhaps even the USA. As I said (for the third time), let's check back in two months.

 

[KINGS17]

You actually might opt for compassion, keyboard warrior. Or at least realize that COVID as experienced in South Africa is far different than what is happening in the UK, the EA, and perhaps even the USA. As I said (for the third time), let's check back in two months.

I know that from a scientific perspective all viruses attempt to live, and replicate. In order to live, a virus cannot kill its host. In fact, a virus would prefer you to contract it and go on about your business without even noticing it, so it can continue to replicate. A virus that mutates into one that causes a more serious illness is not a virus that will survive long term.

[EDIT NATD]

 

[Rumpelstiltskin]

Not sure how credible this platform itself is, but potentially some great news coming <?>:

US Army Creates Single Vaccine Effective Against All COVID & SARS Variants, Researchers Say

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

Not sure how credible this platform itself is, but potentially some great news coming <?>:

US Army Creates Single Vaccine Effective Against All COVID & SARS Variants, Researchers Say

Site kept bugging out on me. Quick search couldn't reveal any other big sites picking it up.

But it would be the latest in a string of good news, between that and treatments and the virus tapering lethality.

Yet--I'm more than a little miffed at this stage at how much the country at large has given up on things like easy, quick mass testing or distribution of treatments. It was hard as shit for me to find a testing site quickly and in short order; I remember early on we were supposed to get massive access to 15-min kits that would make things like dinners possible, that disappeared; and all the promising treatments, including monoclonal antibodies, are still so, so hard to access. Like sure the general public has its own issues, but we're still being failed daily and on the large by the governments (probably purposely, profits, but yeah) and corporations.

 

[Fishhead]

Damn, where's this stat coming from?

Orange County COVID-19 Dashboard - Desktop (arcgis.com)

Just flip over to the hospital/icu tab at the bottom.

 

[Fishhead]

Not sure how credible this platform itself is, but potentially some great news coming <?>:

US Army Creates Single Vaccine Effective Against All COVID & SARS Variants, Researchers Say

If that's a nanoparticle vaccine, that's an interesting development. Nanoparticles have recently been used as drug delivery methods to target tumors. They use ferritin because cancerous tumors have a high demand for iron for their growth, and ferritin is everywhere in your blood - it's what's measured if a doctor is looking for iron deficiency. This demand means ferritin binds to tumors incredibly easily, far easier than your typical body cell. Drugs that kill tumors by inserting themselves into the cell and disrupting cellular mechanisms can be attached to ferritin nanoparticles, so they will target tumors naturally and ignore most other cells in the body.

If people were worried about mRNA vaccines being too recent, wait until they try to grasp cutting edge nano technology. They'll think it's little robots swimming around in your blood doing the government's bidding. It completely makes sense, because spike proteins could easily be added to ferritin which would elicit responses as well as an mRNA vaccine, if not better. It would be magnitudes higher than plasma or other treatments. It's also likely multiple antigens could be carried at once, making the vaccine effective against multiple strains.

It's a new tech though, and it's pretty crazy. Since they are so small and targeting, they could (in theory) be used to identify things present in your body in extremely low concentrations. The general idea is beyond tiny nanoparticles float around your bloodstream looking for specific molecules that are present if you have cancer, parkinson's, etc. that are present in very low quantities before any hint of disease shows up. As they circulate, if they encounter any of the compounds they attach to them. The nanoparticles are then harvested and evaluated to see if anything bad is around. The goal is to make those "well, by the time you have symptoms the disease is already progressed and..." conversations a thing of the past.

 

[Kudelski37]

Nationally, cases have jumped over the last couple of days. There were 276k new cases yesterday, placing third for a daily total during the pandemic. First is 313k and second is 277k, both occurring last winter.

 

[KINGS17]

If that's a nanoparticle vaccine, that's an interesting development. Nanoparticles have recently been used as drug delivery methods to target tumors. They use ferritin because cancerous tumors have a high demand for iron for their growth, and ferritin is everywhere in your blood - it's what's measured if a doctor is looking for iron deficiency. This demand means ferritin binds to tumors incredibly easily, far easier than your typical body cell. Drugs that kill tumors by inserting themselves into the cell and disrupting cellular mechanisms can be attached to ferritin nanoparticles, so they will target tumors naturally and ignore most other cells in the body.

If people were worried about mRNA vaccines being too recent, wait until they try to grasp cutting edge nano technology. They'll think it's little robots swimming around in your blood doing the government's bidding. It completely makes sense, because spike proteins could easily be added to ferritin which would elicit responses as well as an mRNA vaccine, if not better. It would be magnitudes higher than plasma or other treatments. It's also likely multiple antigens could be carried at once, making the vaccine effective against multiple strains.

It's a new tech though, and it's pretty crazy. Since they are so small and targeting, they could (in theory) be used to identify things present in your body in extremely low concentrations. The general idea is beyond tiny nanoparticles float around your bloodstream looking for specific molecules that are present if you have cancer, parkinson's, etc. that are present in very low quantities before any hint of disease shows up. As they circulate, if they encounter any of the compounds they attach to them. The nanoparticles are then harvested and evaluated to see if anything bad is around. The goal is to make those "well, by the time you have symptoms the disease is already progressed and..." conversations a thing of the past.

Thanks for the insight and information. Definitely something to learn more about.

 

[Rumpelstiltskin]

If that's a nanoparticle vaccine, that's an interesting development. Nanoparticles have recently been used as drug delivery methods to target tumors. They use ferritin because cancerous tumors have a high demand for iron for their growth, and ferritin is everywhere in your blood - it's what's measured if a doctor is looking for iron deficiency. This demand means ferritin binds to tumors incredibly easily, far easier than your typical body cell. Drugs that kill tumors by inserting themselves into the cell and disrupting cellular mechanisms can be attached to ferritin nanoparticles, so they will target tumors naturally and ignore most other cells in the body.

If people were worried about mRNA vaccines being too recent, wait until they try to grasp cutting edge nano technology. They'll think it's little robots swimming around in your blood doing the government's bidding. It completely makes sense, because spike proteins could easily be added to ferritin which would elicit responses as well as an mRNA vaccine, if not better. It would be magnitudes higher than plasma or other treatments. It's also likely multiple antigens could be carried at once, making the vaccine effective against multiple strains.

It's a new tech though, and it's pretty crazy. Since they are so small and targeting, they could (in theory) be used to identify things present in your body in extremely low concentrations. The general idea is beyond tiny nanoparticles float around your bloodstream looking for specific molecules that are present if you have cancer, parkinson's, etc. that are present in very low quantities before any hint of disease shows up. As they circulate, if they encounter any of the compounds they attach to them. The nanoparticles are then harvested and evaluated to see if anything bad is around. The goal is to make those "well, by the time you have symptoms the disease is already progressed and..." conversations a thing of the past.

Interesting stuff; my non-scientifically-inclined-mind wonders if this technology could eventually be used to treat (as opposed to just pre-emptively diagnose) cancer.

BTW, if anyone cares: here's a "cleaner" site for the impending vaccine, with a link to the Walter Reed site itself:

Army scientists develop COVID-19 vaccine protecting against 'known and unknown' variants | Washington Examiner

 

[Jason Squirties]

Nationally, cases have jumped over the last couple of days. There were 276k new cases yesterday, placing third for a daily total during the pandemic. First is 313k and second is 277k, both occurring last winter.

We're about to blow all those stats out the water, me thinks.

 

[Lt Dan]

So it looks like the winter surge is here. Way way way over 500 cases
Huge jump in hosp from yesterday 188-----> 215
ICU up 1

 

[Schrute farms]

Cases will def surge now with winter, holiday gatherings and Omicron. But with Omicron being less harmful, the key items to focus on going forward may be the hospitalization and (more so) ICU. If those two do not increase too much (certainly less than the rate of positive cases), then indeed we might be in a good phase of this whole thing where it's mutated to the expected more contagious but less harmful nature (e.g., the Flu or Cold).

 

[Lt Dan]

Cases will def surge now with winter, holiday gatherings and Omicron. But with Omicron being less harmful, the key items to focus on going forward may be the hospitalization and (more so) ICU. If those two do not increase too much (certainly less than the rate of positive cases), then indeed we might be in a good phase of this whole thing where it's mutated to the expected more contagious but less harmful nature (e.g., the Flu or Cold).

Not only do you get a clapping gif, but you get one with Morgan Freeman clapping!

You post is exactly what we need to focus on . It is really all about the hospital and ICU numbers.



In case anyone disagrees with me and/or SFB

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

Feeling a lot better today, mostly like a really really bad cold. The ones where you can't quite call in sick to work but sure feels like it sucks the life out of you, haha.

 

[Maynard]

Cases will def surge now with winter, holiday gatherings and Omicron. But with Omicron being less harmful, the key items to focus on going forward may be the hospitalization and (more so) ICU. If those two do not increase too much (certainly less than the rate of positive cases), then indeed we might be in a good phase of this whole thing where it's mutated to the expected more contagious but less harmful nature (e.g., the Flu or Cold).

Problem is the less lethal variant will get everyone relaxing, backing off the masks and precautions. Then we’ll get hit with the next variant which could easily be more deadly. Pericles variant gonna f*** our shit up, watch.

 

[RocketKing]

in case you didn't know, there is an ignore option.
Most of us have andys on ignore

I am very aware of that but when someone is talking about jacking off to Trump in a mirror and nobody had the balls to call him out then I felt like it was warranted. Oh and I also read the mod statement about no political attacks but WTF. Either enforce the standards or get shitty comments like mine. So take you in case your not aware comments and we’ll, you know what to do.

 

[Lt Dan]

I am very aware of that but when someone is talking about jacking off to Trump in a mirror and nobody had the balls to call him out then I felt like it was warranted. Oh and I also read the mod statement about no political attacks but WTF. Either enforce the standards or get shitty comments like mine. So take you in case your not aware comments and we’ll, you know what to do.

The same could be said of every walk of life
-Driving and not following rules of the road
- returning shopping carts
- not cheating on taxes
- recycling
- not tugging on superman cape
-not spitting in to the wind
-not pulling the mask off that old lone ranger
-not messing around with Jim

No portion of life is a utopia where people follow the rules


You just need to find your inner Steve Winwood and You gotta roll with it baby



And if you j.o. to anyone in the mirror , it should be Betty White

 

[Papa Mocha 15]

ICU numbers in my area are going up. 1/2 my unit is Covid now. All unvaccinated. However, the number on the floors is not so high, which is interesting cause they usually all go together which lends to the thought that this is mild for the vaccinated and not requiring hosp but those who are sick and in ICU are really in trouble. One of my attendings entire load was covid patients in the ICU and all unvaccinated.

Also, keep in mind, our numbers are going to be much higher in the public because so many people are testing at home and not everyone runs to the doctor right away. Quite a few areas are already out of testing kits so based on human nature, people are going to figure they got something, may or may not conclude they have it and not inform their doctor so it will go unaccounted for.

Following info is from someone I follow and get some of my Covid info. She has a masters in public health, a PhD in Epidimiology and BioStatistics and has been accurate throughout this pandemic. She has an email that comes out 1 or 2x a week that you sign up for if interested. Name is Dr. Katelyn Jetelina. (No peer papers either). 100% science driven and peer reviewed info. She also has a second gig teaching med students. Your Local Epidemiologist | Katelyn Jetelina | Substack. Her goal is to translate data and give it to the public.

Vaccine Effectiveness
We now have 8 lab studies all largely saying the same thing: Omicron significantly reduces the number of neutralizing antibodies from a 2-dose mRNA series compared to previous variants.
Importantly, a “reduction in neutralizing antibodies” is not the same thing as “reduction in vaccine effectiveness”. This is because immune systems are adaptive and diverse thanks to other types of antibodies, B-cells (antibody factories), and T-cells (secondary line of defense). So it’s important to look at other data too.
In the UK, we got our first glimpse of “real world” vaccine effectiveness against Omicron. On Friday, the UK Health Security Agency released a comprehensive report in which they compared 56,439 cases of Delta to 581 cases of Omicron from Nov 27 to Dec 6, 2021. Vaccine effectiveness against Omicron infection was 30-40% after two shots of Pfizer. After a booster, effectiveness increased to 70-80%. This is nothing short of phenomenal. This also probably means that boosters continue to reduce viral transmission.

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

The number of COVID19 hospitalizations in South Africa is remaining low. But we’re coming up on the 3-4 week lag we typically see with hospitalizations, so coming to a conclusion is haphazard.
If hospitalizations continue to be low, then there is a clear indication that one of two things are happening:

1. Immunity works against severe disease (like we hypothesized above); or,
2. Omicron induces more mild disease.

We really need a more generalizable sample in order to differentiate between the two: How do older people fare with Omicron? How about those with no prior infection? Unvaccinated? We still don’t know.

UKHSA Source Here
In the past week we also had 3 T-cell studies come out. T-cells are critical to our immune system because they are our second line of defense. If neutralizing antibodies can’t catch the virus before it infects our cells, then T-cells kick in. T-cell protection is harder for viruses to escape because their protection spans virtually the entire spike protein, whereas antibody responses tend to focus on relatively few regions. As hypothesized, the results from the studies look great— T-cells continue to work against Omicron. So even though the number of infections will substantially increase, we will largely stay out of the hospital.
With this data, the case for an Omicron-specific vaccine is becoming less and less apparent. This will be highly debated in the coming months, so it will be interesting to hear both sides of the argument.

Infection-induced Immunity
A study over the weekend showed that neutralizing antibodies among people previously infected with Alpha (panel E), Beta (panel F), and Delta (panel G) completely failed to attach to Omicron. Those that were infected + vaccinated (or vaccinated + infected) had a strong response to Omicron (panel H).

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

But just like vaccines, neutralizing antibodies isn’t the full story. So it’s important to look at “real world” data. A week ago, a South African study found reinfection rates were 3 times higher with Omicron compared to Delta. This past Friday the UK confirmed with their own analysis: Of 329 individuals identified with an Omicron infection in this period, 17 (4.9%) were linked to a previous confirmed infection. This equates to an Omicron reinfection rate of 3-8x higher than Delta.

Yesterday 1,288 souls died from COVID19. As Kaiser Family Foundation reported, 163,000 COVID-19 deaths since June 2021 would have been prevented with vaccinations. A true national tragedy.

 

[Kudelski37]

We're about to blow all those stats out the water, me thinks.

Optimistic view, the first US case of Omicron was about a week after the first South African case of Omicron. South Africa appears to have peaked in cases a week ago. The US cases were down to ~240k yesterday. US cases might have peaked or are peaking right now. However, the US has been an unusual case with respect to covid so I'm not ready to buy the optimistic view yet.

 

[Rumpelstiltskin]

"Merry Christmas Eve-Eve:"

FDA Authorized the First COVID-19 Pill, Paxlovid From Pfizer | Time