General COVID-19 Talk #4 MOD Warning

[Lt Dan]

451 cases per day.. That is higher and something to keep an eye on , but still under 500
Hosp down from 201---->195
ICU down too 58--->>56

 

[Buddy The Elf]

I just came by to say omicron variant.

 

[fivehole32]

I just came by to say omicron variant.

Omicron Prime was my favorite Autobot.

 

[verbalkint47]

 

[RonM11]

US Coronavirus: Omicron now accounts for 73% of coronavirus cases in the US, according to the CDC - CNN

Also, a prediction I heard on TV today that they are expecting perhaps as high as one million cases a day. In other words, they think this variant is going to burn through the population like a California wildfire.

 

[RonM11]

From what we know thus far, I would be fine with catching the Omicron variant. That does not mean I will forego getting the booster shot though, because I will get it at some point.

Cool beans. Why don't you go to a lab and volunteer as a human guinea pig? And keep us apprised as to how you are doing.

 

[RonM11]

Omicron is spreading fast, it’s going through the UK incredibly quickly. If it truly is a milder version of the virus it may ultimately be a ‘good’ thing.

I say ‘good’ because a mild version becoming so dominant with so many people still being unvaccinated is infinitely better than a more aggressive version being so transmissible. I really hope those that are unvaccinated for non medical reasons have a bit of a rethink and consider the “what if’s” around this. The more robust our immune systems are the less opportunity there will be for mutation of the virus.

Also, this new version being slightly less well covered by the current vaccines clearly demonstrates why boosters will be needed. At some point we will need further boosters to cover this variation properly as well as any others that will likely occur.

Hoping we can get through Christmas without going into full lockdown again. I’m expecting a short circuit breaker lockdown at the start of January.

I think for the majority of us, you are right. But if it's true that this could infect up to one million Americans a day, and basically burn through the entire population in very short order, our hospital system is going to collapse and the amount of death will be staggering. Sheer numbers say so.

It won't be causing JUST a mild form of illness in our elderly and immunocompromised population. We already see that Omicron is busting through the vaccines and infecting everyone. For the young, healthy, and vaccinated, you are right.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

I think for the majority of us, you are right. But if it's true that this could infect up to one million Americans a day, and basically burn through the entire population in very short order, our hospital system is going to collapse and the amount of death will be staggering. Sheer numbers say so.

It won't be causing JUST a mild form of illness in our elderly and immunocompromised population. We already see that Omicron is busting through the vaccines and infecting everyone. For the young, healthy, and vaccinated, you are right.

Right, the real problem with this variant is just sheer volume. Many won't be deeply affected, but with such large numbers infected, it only takes a very small percentage to fill up the hospitals. And we're seeing that bigtime elsewhere.

 

[Fishhead]

I think that 1M per day prediction is way off base, and not just because everyone will huddle in their houses if it looks like that. Our protection here in the US is far superior to that of other countries as the mRNA viruses, when boosted, lose very little protection with Omicron - the response is close to the same as delta. The caveat is you need a 3 dose regimen. We will be in far better shape than countries that rely on viral vector vaccines like the Oxford one. Whatever happens in Europe really shouldn't happen here, but all bets are off if you are unvaccinated. If there was ever a time to get the shot sequence, it's now. I expect the death count will be lower than delta even if it isn't less virulent because a solid percentage of Americans are vaccinated. If this variant scares the crap out of enough people so they get the shot, all the better.

Right now, 87% of all hospitalizations and 89% of all ICU admits in OC are unvaccinated.

 

[KINGS17]

Cool beans. Why don't you go to a lab and volunteer as a human guinea pig? And keep us apprised as to how you are doing.

Did I say I wanted to be a guinea pig? I essentially said that the data on the Omicron variant thus far indicates it does not infect the lungs, but instead infects the throat. Therefore, it has not been deadly.

I think for the majority of us, you are right. But if it's true that this could infect up to one million Americans a day, and basically burn through the entire population in very short order, our hospital system is going to collapse and the amount of death will be staggering. Sheer numbers say so.

It won't be causing JUST a mild form of illness in our elderly and immunocompromised population. We already see that Omicron is busting through the vaccines and infecting everyone. For the young, healthy, and vaccinated, you are right.

Early data points to lower hospitalisation rate linked to Omicron, says expert

Early data emerging from Denmark and South Africa indicates there may be a lower hospitalisation rate linked to the Omicron variant of Covid-19, according to an infectious diseases consultant.

“There is a sense, talking to the South Africans, that the brunt of this pandemic is being felt in the community rather than in the hospitals. So, a lot of people are getting sick, but the brunt of it is falling on community services rather hospitals. Whether that will happen here remains to be seen.”

In addition, he said while there were “alarming” numbers of cases of the Omicron variant in Denmark - which has a similar population and vaccination rate to Ireland - this has not yet translated into very high hospitalisation rates.

“They are about a week ahead of us in terms of Omicron and, when you look at their numbers, they are alarming. The day before yesterday they had 11,000 cases... two weeks ago, they had about 7-8,000 cases a day.

“Normally, two weeks later, you expect that to translate into hospital admissions. Yesterday, they had an additional 15 hospitalisations,” he told the Brendan O’Connor Show on RTÉ radio.

Hmm, 15 hospitalizations with around 10,000 cases per day over several weeks. Maybe they don't have elderly or immunocompromised people in Denmark? Yeah, of course they do. Just in case you want to do the rough math, that's a hospitalization rate of approximately 0.01%.

With 75% of the cases in the U.S. being the Omicron variant, we actually just caught a huge break. It has become the predominant variant already, and it is much less deadly or able to cause serious illness.

[edit NADT]

 

[BigBrown]

Gonna be interesting to see if Omicron actually is a less dangerous variant or just appear to be due to the vaccine. Denmark has a vaccination rate of 77,5%.

What sucks regardless is more people getting sick which means more opportunities for mutations and new variants. Helping vaccine distribution in third world countries should be a high priority if we are to ever get rid of this shit.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

Gonna be interesting to see if Omicron actually is a less dangerous variant or just appear to be due to the vaccine. Denmark has a vaccination rate of 77,5%.

What sucks regardless is more people getting sick which means more opportunities for mutations and new variants. Helping vaccine distribution in third world countries should be a high priority if we are to ever get rid of this shit.

Correct me if I'm wrong but I seem to recall the reason they believe as such is because of South Africa's extremely low vaccination rate?

Right now, 87% of all hospitalizations and 89% of all ICU admits in OC are unvaccinated.

That's a hell of a stat.

 

[Lt Dan]

So....
Tuesday is historically low case day

This is the first day over 500 in a LONG time. Let's reserve judgment for tomorrow though because...
Hosp (our most real time indicator) is down from 195 yesterday
and ICU is unchanged

 

[Lt Dan]

Did I say I wanted to be a guinea pig? I essentially said that the data on the Omicron variant thus far indicates it does not infect the lungs, but instead infects the throat. Therefore, it has not been deadly.

If this is indeed true, this is incredible news and could be on the way to becoming the cold we all hope it might morph in to.This could be BIG; bigger than Big Bad John

 

[RonM11]

Did I say I wanted to be a guinea pig? I essentially said that the data on the Omicron variant thus far indicates it does not infect the lungs, but instead infects the throat. Therefore, it has not been deadly.



Early data points to lower hospitalisation rate linked to Omicron, says expert

Early data emerging from Denmark and South Africa indicates there may be a lower hospitalisation rate linked to the Omicron variant of Covid-19, according to an infectious diseases consultant.

“There is a sense, talking to the South Africans, that the brunt of this pandemic is being felt in the community rather than in the hospitals. So, a lot of people are getting sick, but the brunt of it is falling on community services rather hospitals. Whether that will happen here remains to be seen.”

In addition, he said while there were “alarming” numbers of cases of the Omicron variant in Denmark - which has a similar population and vaccination rate to Ireland - this has not yet translated into very high hospitalisation rates.

“They are about a week ahead of us in terms of Omicron and, when you look at their numbers, they are alarming. The day before yesterday they had 11,000 cases... two weeks ago, they had about 7-8,000 cases a day.

“Normally, two weeks later, you expect that to translate into hospital admissions. Yesterday, they had an additional 15 hospitalisations,” he told the Brendan O’Connor Show on RTÉ radio.

Hmm, 15 hospitalizations with around 10,000 cases per day over several weeks. Maybe they don't have elderly or immunocompromised people in Denmark? Yeah, of course they do. Just in case you want to do the rough math, that's a hospitalization rate of approximately 0.01%.

With 75% of the cases in the U.S. being the Omicron variant, we actually just caught a huge break. It has become the predominant variant already, and it is much less deadly or able to cause serious illness.

Maybe you can find a lab to give you a treatment that will keep you from becoming an even bigger asshole. Keep us apprised of your progress.

[EDIT: NADT]

Let's talk in about two months. Then we can properly assess if you are right, or I was. Or we ended up somewhere in the middle.

 

[RonM11]

Did I say I wanted to be a guinea pig? I essentially said that the data on the Omicron variant thus far indicates it does not infect the lungs, but instead infects the throat. Therefore, it has not been deadly.

Tell that to the poor sap who died yesterday in Texas. Guess he had this massive, horrid sore throat, eh?

 

[Over the volcano]

Take care of eachother out there

 

[RonM11]

Buckle up, Buttercup. It's going to be a real bumpy ride.

 

[KINGS17]

Tell that to the poor sap who died yesterday in Texas. Guess he had this massive, horrid sore throat, eh?

[EDIT NATD] No one ever said not a single person would die.

I don't know about a massive sore throat, but I will wager he had at least three underlying health issues, and died while testing positive.

 

[KINGS17]

Buckle up, Buttercup. It's going to be a real bumpy ride.

Reported cases? No one is going to care about reported cases if the hospitalization rate from those cases remains low.

 

[Lt Dan]

Take care of eachother out there

As the great philosopher Princess Leia once said

but thank you for the positivity and shit

Please find your inner Prodigal Son and return

 

[Schrute farms]

Per the CDC: Between October 1, 2019 and April 4, 2020, the flu resulted in:

• 39 to 56 million illnesses
• 410,000 to 740,000 hospitalizations
• 24,000 to 62,000 deaths
• 195 pediatric deaths

Actually, switching gears and here's a much better annual table per the CDC:

Table 1: Estimated Influenza Disease Burden, by Season — United States, 2010-11 through 2019-20 Influenza Seasons

Symptomatic Illnesses	Medical Visits	Hospitalizations	Deaths
Season	Estimate	95% U I	Estimate	95% U I	Estimate	95% U I	Estimate	95% U I
2010-2011	21,000,000	(20,000,000 – 25,000,000)	10,000,000	(9,300,000 – 12,000,000)	290,000	(270,000 – 350,000)	37,000	(32,000 – 51,000)
2011-2012	9,300,000	(8,700,000 – 12,000,000)	4,300,000	(4,000,000 – 5,600,000)	140,000	(130,000 – 190,000)	12,000	(11,000 – 23,000)
2012-2013	34,000,000	(32,000,000 – 38,000,000)	16,000,000	(15,000,000 – 18,000,000)	570,000	(530,000 – 680,000)	43,000	(37,000 – 57,000)
2013-2014	30,000,000	(28,000,000 – 33,000,000)	13,000,000	(12,000,000 – 15,000,000)	350,000	(320,000 – 390,000)	38,000	(33,000 – 50,000)
2014-2015	30,000,000	(29,000,000 – 33,000,000)	14,000,000	(13,000,000 – 16,000,000)	590,000	(540,000 – 680,000)	51,000	(44,000 – 64,000)
2015-2016	24,000,000	(20,000,000 – 33,000,000)	11,000,000	(9,000,000 – 15,000,000)	280,000	(220,000 – 480,000)	23,000	(17,000 – 35,000)
2016-2017	29,000,000	(25,000,000 – 45,000,000)	14,000,000	(11,000,000 – 23,000,000)	500,000	(380,000 – 860,000)	38,000	(29,000 – 61,000)
Preliminary estimates*	Estimate	95% UI	Estimate	95% UI	Estimate	95% UI	Estimate	95% UI
2017-2018*	45,000,000	(39,000,000 – 58,000,000)	21,000,000	(18,000,000 – 27,000,000)	810,000	(620,000 – 1,400,000)	61,000	(46,000 – 95,000)
2018-2019*	36,000,000	(31,000,000 – 45,000,000)	17,000,000	(14,000,000 – 21,000,000)	490,000	(390,000 – 770,000)	34,000	(26,000 – 53,000)
2019-2020*	38,000,000	(34,000,000 – 47,000,000)	18,000,000	(15,000,000 – 22,000,000)	400,000	(350,000 – 500,000)	22,000	(18,000 – 29,000)

[TBODY] [/TBODY]
[TBODY] [/TBODY]

This is only the Flu -- doesn't include the Cold (i don't think). Plus, "cases" of covid have always included symptomatic & non-symptomatic. The above cases are symptomatic. I wonder what the true symptomatic Covid case numbers are -- that would be interesting to see/know.

I thought i read yesterday somewhere that the Oct. 2020 to April 2021 flu season was MUCH higher (58M or so). Whereas the following flu season (Oct 2020 - April 2021) was under 3K. Expected we'd see a drop but that figure is crazy.

Figure 2: Estimated U.S. Flu Burden, By Season

 

[Jason Squirties]

I think that 1M per day prediction is way off base, and not just because everyone will huddle in their houses if it looks like that. Our protection here in the US is far superior to that of other countries as the mRNA viruses, when boosted, lose very little protection with Omicron - the response is close to the same as delta. The caveat is you need a 3 dose regimen. We will be in far better shape than countries that rely on viral vector vaccines like the Oxford one. Whatever happens in Europe really shouldn't happen here, but all bets are off if you are unvaccinated. If there was ever a time to get the shot sequence, it's now. I expect the death count will be lower than delta even if it isn't less virulent because a solid percentage of Americans are vaccinated. If this variant scares the crap out of enough people so they get the shot, all the better.

Right now, 87% of all hospitalizations and 89% of all ICU admits in OC are unvaccinated.

Damn, where's this stat coming from?

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

So, after being mega-sick last year, and getting three Pfizer doses this year, guess who has two thumbs and a breakthru infection?

So far it's just a super annoying head cold so crossing my fingers. I'd like to lose 20 pounds again but not like that!

Almost certainly came from the same unvaccinated family member that gave it to everyone last year, and pretty well true to the stats, the only one near hospitalization is the unvaccinated fam. member, everyone else has had at least two shots and is in the same shape as me.

Just in case you need to know why I'm extra grumpy with no hockey this week.

 

[KINGS17]

So, after being mega-sick last year, and getting three Pfizer doses this year, guess who has two thumbs and a breakthru infection?

So far it's just a super annoying head cold so crossing my fingers. I'd like to lose 20 pounds again but not like that!

Almost certainly came from the same unvaccinated family member that gave it to everyone last year, and pretty well true to the stats, the only one near hospitalization is the unvaccinated fam. member, everyone else has had at least two shots and is in the same shape as me.

Just in case you need to know why I'm extra grumpy with no hockey this week.

Feel better man. Was it the same family member, or a different person in the family who you think infected you this time?

One of the symptoms of Omicron is being described as a scratchy throat, as opposed to a sore throat. Are you experiencing that symptom?