Speculation: Gaudreau seeking $8M annually on new deal with Flames

[Pure Slaughter Value]

you would be one who does not like pointing out results versus comp faced.


Cause you think there is no difference how a player performs between
1st comp:
(evp/60) forwards;
lucic (#77 evp/60) - draisatl (#25 evp/60) - eberle (#61 evp/.60)
upper pair d (evga/60 d)
davidson (#30 evga d) - larsson (#1 evga d)

and

3rd/4th comp(evp/60) forwards;
bouma (#200 evp/60) - stajan (#289 evp/60) - brouwer (#204 evp/60)
bottom pair (evga/60 d)
engelland (#167 evg/60) - hamilton (#174 evga/60)

pi = 3.14159265358979323846264338327950288419716939937510582097494459230781640628620899862803482534211706798214808651328230664709384460955058223172535940812848111745028410270193852110555964462294895493038196442881097566593344612847564823378678316527120190914564856692346034861045432664821339360726024914127372458700660631558817488152092096282925409171536436789259036001133053054882046652138414695194151160943305727036575959195309218611738193261179310511854807446237996274956735188575272489122793818301194912983367336244065664308602139494639522473719070217986094370277053921717629317675238467481846766940513200056812714526356082778577134275778960917363717872146844090122495343014654958537105079227968925892354201995611212902196086403441815981362977477130996051870721134999999837297804995105973173281609631859502445945534690830264252230825334468503526193118817101000313783875288658753320838142061717766914730359825349042875546873115956286388235378759375195778185778053217122680661300192787661119590921642019893809525720106548586

 

[daveleaf]

I doubt this. Flames mgt has planted this to try and drive down price. Chances are they have asked for Tarasenko money and are being low balled. Don't trust anything where BB is employed.

 

[SmellOfVictory]

What are the contract values for RFAs with top 10 scoring finishes relative to the cap at the time? To me, Gaudreau's situation isn't that far from Doughty when he got his second contract. He's already shown he has the goods, so pay the man.

At the time Doughty had three full seasons in the NHL and had been a Norris trophy finalist. He was considered a franchise dman, which is arguably the most important position on a team.

I really think a guy like Tarasenko is the best comparable for Gaudreau (although there are no great comparables) which means something in the low-mid 7s would be perfectly fine. Even if he was paid based on the "Gio cap" and only got 6.75/year, it wouldn't exactly be a travesty underpayment. It would be awesome value, but not fire-your-agent level cheap.

 

[InGusWeTrust]

5 years 6mill per.

 

[oilerbear]

I always enjoy reading oilerbear's posts

it is all based on
1. watching players;
2. Forming an opinion.
3. seeing if the GF and GA results
match the old school saw him good or saw him bad approach.
4. watching video of
system
and
players .
5. breaking down the mechanics of each.

Critical things are observed
this one in feb 06:
1. 75% of goals come from 10.5 of the games 30 shots.
those shots come from an area in front of the net I identified as the HSCA area.

latlely you see a lot of sportsnets graphics represent the area.
comes from Sports logix

they talk about the need to penetrate the area.
That 17% of the offensive zone is largely guarded by Dmen preventing HSCA shots.
and
Goalies trying to stop the shots that go in 8.5 to 30% of the time.

Cup winners always have top 10 HSCA save% goalies and 3+ top 60 HSCA D.

The variance in HSCA shots by D men can be 7- 14.0 but
top 10 is around 7.5 shots
and
bottom 10 is around 13.5 shots.
13.5 - 7.5 = 6 SHOT DIFFRENCE 6/13.5 = 44.44%

take a progression of HSCA Save% goalies and look at there GA facing 7.5; 10.5 and 13.5 shots.

#1 Price .889: (1.000 -.889) = .111 HSCA shots go in.
7.5 X .111 = .83 EVGA/60
10.5 X .111 = 1.17 EVGA /60
13.5 X .111 = 1.50 EVGA/60
the difference between the top GA by HSC shots face d is (1.5 - .83)/1.5; 44.7%

#2-3 Talbot; Griess .886
#4 Holtby .885

#5 Halak .882: (1.000 -.882) = .118 HSCA shots go in.
7.5 X .118 = .89 EVGA/60
10.5 X .118 = 1.24 EVGA /60
13.5 X .118 = 1.59 EVGA/60
Diffrence is (1.59-.89)/ 1.59 = 44.0%

#6 Jones.881
#7 Elliot .880
#8 Crawford .878
#9 Lundquist .877

#10-11 Bernier; Schnieder .874: (1.000 -.874) = .126 HSCA shots go in.
7.5 X .126 = .945 EVGA/60
10.5 X .126 = 1.32 EVGA /60
13.5 X .126 = 1.70 EVGA/60
difference is (1.70-.945)/1.70 = 44.4%

#12 Mrazek .873

#13-16 Quick; Fluery; Rask; Neuvirth .871
7.5 X .129 = .97 EVGA/60
10.5 X .129 = 1.355 EVGA /60
13.5 X .129 = 1.74 EVGA/60
difference is (1.74-.97)/1.74 = 44.3%

#17-19 Lack; Gibson; Varlamov .870

#20-21 Bishop; Miller .867
7.5 X .133 = 1.00 EVGA/60
10.5 X .133 = 1.40 EVGA /60
13.5 X .133 = 1.80 EVGA/60
difference is (1.80-1.00)/1.80 = 44.4%

#22 Lehtonen .866
#23 Khudobin .863

#24-28 F. Andersson; Scrivens; Mason .861
7.5 X .139 = 1.04 EVGA/60
10.5 X .139 = 1.46 EVGA /60
13.5 X .139 = 1.88 EVGA/60
difference is (1.88- 1.04)/1.88 = 44.7%

#29 Reimer .860

#30-34 Dubnyk; Pavalec; Hiller; Bobrovsky; Ranta .859
7.5 X .141 = 1.06EVGA/60
10.5 X .141 = 1.48 EVGA /60
13.5 X .141 = 1.90 EVGA/60
difference is (1.90- 1.06)/1.90 = 44.2%

what is obvious is that the even total goals is varies by 44.4% based on quality of Defensive Dmen.

the variance between top HSCA save % goalie and Bottom HSCA save% goalies
is
7.5 SHots:
price .83
Dubnyk..... 1.06
(1.06 -.83)/1.06 = 21.7%


10.5 shots
price 1.17
Dub.... 1.48
(1.48 - 1.17)/1.48 = 20.9%

13.5 shots
price 1.50
dub.... 1.90
(1.9 - 1.50)/1.90 = 21.1%

Lik most sports players perform around league average.

at both end sof the spectrum D and Goalies are difrence makers

golaies can have a maxinum affect of 21-22%
Dmen can have a maximum affect of 44-45%

so haveingthe top end of HSCA goalies and a Number of top 60 HSCA dgets ateam close to the conference finals.

They still need a coach that runs a HSCA system and Even production depth



1.Tmac a HSCA sys coach was hired.
Klefbom and Davidson continued in there HSC Ad development.
Davidson top 30 HSCA; EVGA; PKGA
Klefbom from top 90 HSCA D to top 60

2. Mact arranged the trade for Talbot trade deadline 05
sather oferred it to PC cause Mact was still there.
Talbot #2 HSCA save% goalie .886

3. PC traded hall for
Larsson
Top 10 HSCA d
#1 EVGA D
#12 PKGA D
Larsson top 10

What pisses me off as a oiler fan.

Toronto trades for one of the worst HSCA goalies
Andersson .862
and
then trades a top 10 HSCA save% goalie
bernier .874
to Anaheim

who have 3 top 25 HSCA D
Manson #6 HSCA D; #20 EVGA D
the switch to 40gm bernier majes him #5 EVGA D

Lindholm #8 HSCA D; #23 EVGA D
the switch to 40gm bernier makes him #7 EVGA D

Vatanen #23 HSCA D; #60 EVGA D
the switch to 40gm bernier makes him #32 EVGA D

Makes the pacific even tougher!

 

[KlefDown]

If oilerbear could better format the numbers he shows, his arguments would make a lot more sense. most people will look at what he posted above and just go wtf is he trying to say

 

[oilerbear]

Oilerbear, what do you think Gaudreau's contract should look like based on your statistics? I am curious to know.

At this point Gaudreau canot be driver of PvP play.
thou those players are often rewarded less.

guareau is in the mold of a Kane or a keith.

they need a toews.Hjarlmasson to face the other teams best to protect them
and
allow them to generate an High Goal diff facing the other teams lower lines.

which has huge value partnered with those players.

Monahan played more of a PvP role for Calgary this year.

look at the top 30 comp active centers who ranked in the top 90 even production.
by even production forward rank:
these are the Cneters who face the best and get you 1st line results.
Mcdavid #2 2.69 EVP/60
Crosby #5 2.51
Schiefle #6 2.51
Thorton #9 2.41
Barkov #16 2.25
Draisatl #20 2.20
Stepan #22 2.19
Trochek #24 2.18
Krecji #26 2.12
---------------------- #1 forward
Hertl #48 1.99
Couturier #54 1.96
Monohan #54 1.96
---------------------- #2 forward
Little #67 1.90
Bergeron #86 1.83
---------------------- #3 Forward

contracts are by peer measure
and
Rfa years + UFA years.
has been that way since 05-06.
guadreau is entering his 3rd Yr

he has 4 years of RFA left.
at 7- 7.5M
base of 28-30 Million
and
then add 10M for each UFA year.
4yr + 1yr UFA; 38 to 40M; 7.6 - 8M cap
4yr + 2yr UFA; 48 to 50M; 8 - 8.333M cap
4yr + 3yr UFA 58 to 60 M; 8.286 - 8.571M cap
4yr + 4yr UFA 68 to 70M; 8.5 - 8.75M

this repeats a lot f the philosophy expressed here.

maybe he gives a home town discount.
but after
what he saw the flames do to glencross in his first season with the flames.
That made it clear to him and Monahan it is not a family but a business..

Gaudreau is doing the correct thing!

 

[DJJones]

Where'd did you pull 7 - 7.75M a year for his RFA years from? What comparable could you possibly be using for that?

And he has 5 RFA years left.

7.375M x 8!!!!

 

[tempest2i]

he has 4 years of RFA left.
at 7- 7.5M
base of 28-30 Million
and
then add 10M for each UFA year.
4yr + 1yr UFA; 38 to 40M; 7.6 - 8M cap
4yr + 2yr UFA; 48 to 50M; 8 - 8.333M cap
4yr + 3yr UFA 58 to 60 M; 8.286 - 8.571M cap
4yr + 4yr UFA 68 to 70M; 8.5 - 8.75M

10M for each UFA season seems really expensive. That's putting him in Stamkos territory (9.5M for each of his first five UFA seasons).

 

[tempest2i]

Where'd did you pull 7 - 7.75M a year for his RFA years from? What comparable could you possibly be using for that?

And he has 5 RFA years left.

7.375M x 8!!!!

Tarasenko? His salary bounces between 7 and 8M per season for his RFA years.

 

[DJJones]

Tarasenko? His salary bounces between 7 and 8M per season for his RFA years.

He has a weird contract. Two UFA years are only 5.5M

Don't think you can read to much into his RFA years. He just managed to get his contract front loaded.

 

[tempest2i]

He has a weird contract. Two UFA years are only 5.5M

Don't think you can read to much into his RFA years. He just managed to get his contract front loaded.

*shrug*

Asked for a comparable, received a comparable. I can't make you like that comparable, but there's certainly a precedent for young scoring wingers getting 7-8M a season in their RFA years.

For all I know it could be a long con by the agent to set the RFA bar up pretty high for future arbitration hearings.

 

[Blitzago*]

10M for each UFA season seems really expensive. That's putting him in Stamkos territory (9.5M for each of his first five UFA seasons).

He's better than Stamkos, so its justified.

 

[DJJones]

*shrug*

Asked for a comparable, received a comparable. I can't make you like that comparable, but there's certainly a precedent for young scoring wingers getting 7-8M a season in their RFA years.

For all I know it could be a long con by the agent to set the RFA bar up pretty high for future arbitration hearings.

Alright so use 7.5M as his UFA years as well then. How can you use his RFA years as a comparable and then assume 10M for his UFA?

 

[LeapOnOver]

I feel Gaudreau is a special kid and this is from an Oilers fan. He is very similar to St. Louis in size but has elite puck handling skills. He IMO deserves being called 'Elite'. If he isn't Elite, then McDavid sure as hell isn't, yet, lots of people on here would argue he is Top 10 if not Top 5 in the league in terms of talent.

You wouldn't get that from me. Strome tore it up his first season in the NHL and then **** the bed the second. I don't rate McDavid nearly as high as others do. I wouldn't call Gaudreau elite and wouldn't call McDavid elite yet either even less so. To me elite is a term saved for the best of the best and you can't go throwing it around like candy. I'm not even sure i'd be willing to give Tavares elite status on my own team. He's certainly upper echelon and getting them past the second round on his back got him real close but he disappeared against Tampa. If he had palyed well against Tampa and they still lost the series I might be willing to put him elite. I still think he has more to prove though. Unless you guys have introduced another word better than elite, this may just be a gray instead of black and white thing.

 

[oilerbear]

Where'd did you pull 7 - 7.75M a year for his RFA years from? What comparable could you possibly be using for that?

And he has 5 RFA years left.

7.375M x 8!!!!

The fact you are asking that says
you are full of opinions.

Opinion; Def: point of view not based on facts or knowledge.

-you have to look at current cap.
-Look at past contracts of top 20 scoring forwards coming out of ELC.
take the value. of the contracts as a % of that cap year.
- See the cap values of Forwards coming out of 2nd contract and going to full UFA contract.
get a value of the ufa years as a % of that cap year.

you'd up with a much larger data set of peers 2nd contracts as % of cap
and
Ufa contracts asa % of Cap.

take the current cap and group the similar peers % o cap for RFA years and % of cap for UFA years.
you get 7-7.5 RFA
and
10 for UFA.

I am sure he would gladly sign a 5yr @ 7.5M per.

 

[Breakers]

I wonder if a reason he hasn't signed is maybe he wants to go to a bigger market where he can get bigger endorsements...

Just a theory, but he did trademark his nickname like the first month he was in the league.

should be interesting to see how this turns out.

 

[Wadewilson]

Roger Millions tweeting they aren't close.

Cmon Gaudreau, you're worth 9/yr for sure!

 

[Major Happy*]

Roger Millions tweeting they aren't close.

Cmon Gaudreau, you're worth 9/yr for sure!

Its Roger Millions.....hes not exactly trustworthy when it comes to this stuff, even with connected he is.

I like the guy, but he should let the fan960 guys and TSN and Sportsnet guys deal with rumors.

 

[Volica]

Roger Millions tweeting they aren't close.

Cmon Gaudreau, you're worth 9/yr for sure!

Rog.
Nuff said.

 

[BlueSeal]

Flames will hand him a check and tell him to fill it out. They are ready to make a run for the post season. This core has to stay together no matter what.

 

[Johnnybegood13]

I wonder if a reason he hasn't signed is maybe he wants to go to a bigger market where he can get bigger endorsements...

Just a theory, but he did trademark his nickname like the first month he was in the league.

should be interesting to see how this turns out.

It's been proven over and over, demographics mean very little for endorsements.

 

[Lempo]

I wonder if a reason he hasn't signed is maybe he wants to go to a bigger market where he can get bigger endorsements...

Just a theory, but he did trademark his nickname like the first month he was in the league.

should be interesting to see how this turns out.

I have no idea whatsoever if he (or rather his agent) has moved to cash in with the nickname, but speaking as a total outsider the official given reason for the trademarking is plausible: it gives the legal leverage to prevent any third parties from tweaking his public image (or if you are a bit more cynical, brand) to any unwanted direction. Apparently the move was made after some "Johnny effin' Hockey" merc had surfaced. "Johnny Hockey" is a good All-American boy; the other one implies beard, bandana and Harley.

 

[Johnnybegood13]

I have no idea whatsoever if he (or rather his agent) has moved to cash in with the nickname, but speaking as a total outsider the official given reason for the trademarking is plausible: it gives the legal leverage to prevent any third parties from tweaking his public image (or if you are a bit more cynical, brand) to any unwanted direction. Apparently the move was made after some "Johnny effin' Hockey" merc had surfaced. "Johnny Hockey" is a good All-American boy; the other one implies beard, bandana and Harley.

Pretty much! It was only a gag nickname started by Boston fans but then people were printing t-shirts with his image and "Johnny Hockey" on them, after the nightmare of Johnny Football his agent thought it best to have control on what gets printed with his image.

A good example

 

[King In The North]

Flames will hand him a check and tell him to fill it out. They are ready to make a run for the post season. This core has to stay together no matter what.

Good thing he can't go anywhere lol