Speculation: Gaudreau seeking $8M annually on new deal with Flames

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Johnnybegood13

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Jul 11, 2003
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Yeah I agree. The kid is the real deal, Calgary should stop jerking him around and pay him.

He is completely in the right to ask for $8 million, even at that dollar price he probably will be underpaid in 3-4 years relative to where the cap is going.
A lot of Oiler fans want him paid to the max...wonder why? :naughty::shakehead

Here's a fact, if he's asking for $8m he's not getting it, from the beginning I expected about $7.3 and I still think that'll be very close.
 

Soundwave

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A lot of Oiler fans want him paid to the max...wonder why? :naughty::shakehead

Here's a fact, if he's asking for $8m he's not getting it, from the beginning I expected about $7.3 and I still think that'll be very close.

I'm being honest though, the kid is that good. If I was him I wouldn't want to be tied down to a contract that could be paying me way below market value through my prime years. I'm sure his agent is telling him that too.
 

WhiskeyYerTheDevils

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Flames (like Oilers Leafs Nucks and Habs) sell out regardless their performance on the ice. You pay Gaudreau to help the team win, and there wasnt too much of that happening during Johnny's career year last season.

You don't think Gaudreau helped his team win last year? What were you watching?

There was a good amount of winning his rookie year, too. But I guess he's at fault for playing on a team with Swiss cheese Hiller and a porous defenseman.
 

Pure Slaughter Value

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I'm being honest though, the kid is that good. If I was him I wouldn't want to be tied down to a contract that could be paying me way below market value through my prime years. I'm sure his agent is telling him that too.
I understand this line of thought, I just don't know why 8m per for 8 years isn't going to be way below market value at the end of the contract. Would it be better to take a 3 yr / 21m contract now and a 10m for 5 years later?
 

Flair Hay

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Not the end of the world, but the guy is good enough that Calgary can pay him $8M and nickel and dime players elsewhere in the lineup. I'd love to hear a Flames fan say he isn't worth top 5 winger money.
 

BruinDust

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Aug 2, 2005
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I understand this line of thought, I just don't know why 8m per for 8 years isn't going to be way below market value at the end of the contract. Would it be better to take a 3 yr / 21m contract now and a 10m for 5 years later?

Because he has to plan for worst-case scenario.

What happens when in year 2 of his 3 yr/21m deal he gets a catastrophic injury and can't find a deal or play anymore. That's the end of his hockey earnings.

On a 8-year deal once he's got pen to paper he's guaranteed what at least 2/3 of that money even if he got bought out.
 

King In The North

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Jul 9, 2007
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Not the end of the world, but the guy is good enough that Calgary can pay him $8M and nickel and dime players elsewhere in the lineup. I'd love to hear a Flames fan say he isn't worth top 5 winger money.

I think we all agree he is, but really hoping he might agree to less, would be exciting to have that cap flexibility to eventually/hopefully build a contender.

I'd be happy if he signed 8 years at $8 mill but ecstatic if he took less at the same term.
 

Pure Slaughter Value

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Because he has to plan for worst-case scenario.

What happens when in year 2 of his 3 yr/21m deal he gets a catastrophic injury and can't find a deal or play anymore. That's the end of his hockey earnings.

On a 8-year deal once he's got pen to paper he's guaranteed what at least 2/3 of that money even if he got bought out.

I know. It just seems everyone's focusing on 8 per when in reality he'll be worth 10 within two years if he's consistently in the top 10 of scoring. Does this mean there's no win-win for him? He either signs for more over the short term with the associated risk or signs a deal that is not favorable before the midpoint of the contract.
 

Flair Hay

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I think we all agree he is, but really hoping he might agree to less, would be exciting to have that cap flexibility to eventually/hopefully build a contender.

I'd be happy if he signed 8 years at $8 mill but ecstatic if he took less at the same term.

Fair enough.
 

jimmythescot

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Jul 28, 2009
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Because he has to plan for worst-case scenario.

What happens when in year 2 of his 3 yr/21m deal he gets a catastrophic injury and can't find a deal or play anymore. That's the end of his hockey earnings.

On a 8-year deal once he's got pen to paper he's guaranteed what at least 2/3 of that money even if he got bought out.
Depends when he'd get bought out. Hodgson only got 1/3.
 

Spazkat

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I understand this line of thought, I just don't know why 8m per for 8 years isn't going to be way below market value at the end of the contract. Would it be better to take a 3 yr / 21m contract now and a 10m for 5 years later?

Less risk for the club. Plus, if a business has a choice between pay a lot now vs pay a lot later, they are almost universally going to choose later unless the benefits of paying now are huge. I don't think 8M a year is enough of a discount to fall into that category.
 

TheKingPin

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Nov 16, 2005
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I think we all agree he is, but really hoping he might agree to less, would be exciting to have that cap flexibility to eventually/hopefully build a contender.

I'd be happy if he signed 8 years at $8 mill but ecstatic if he took less at the same term.

You are going to have to pay your stars. Same with any team. Chicago may be the biggest example of that. Pay the top guns and get continuous entry contracts to balance it out.
 

Whileee

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I doubt that the Flames will want to go as high as $8M, even though Gaudreau is probably worth it in the market. If they do, I would expect that they would insist on going for the max 8 year contract.
 

Erndog

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Jul 17, 2007
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Who was that guy on this site that absolutely tore Gaudreau apart the beginning of his career. He was SURE he would bust... then he was SURE he was a flash in the pan, etc.

Who and what's he saying now?
 

Tkachuk Norris

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Jun 22, 2012
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Who was that guy on this site that absolutely tore Gaudreau apart the beginning of his career. He was SURE he would bust... then he was SURE he was a flash in the pan, etc.

Who and what's he saying now?

McTopchowda, Devonator, and LandyMack92. Each of those guys posted around 500 messages saying how much Gaudreau sucked. And how he was overrated. Was lucky to be as good as Nathan Gerbe... Etc.. Basically they made it their personal vendetta to hate on Gaudreau and Flames fans for hyping him so much.

The World Cup has been Johnny's coming out party, and I'm not surprised by that. But what he's doing now is what he's been doing pretty much his whole life. He just gets better every year. But watching him the last four years there was no doubt in my mind with his shiftiness, vision and compete level that we were witnessing a truly special hockey talent.

8 million is a lot for a guy who can't even be offer sheeted and if he sits out the year, he has to wait another year to reach UFA. Basically, he has no negotiating power except for the fact he's a really good player and will be missed.

This is the way his contract should break down.

Year 1- RFA rights/offer sheet not possible 4 million per
Year 2-5: RFA rights/possible offer sheet 6.5 million per

5 year 30 million- similar to Barkov's second deal.

Then each UFA year is going to cost 10 million.

6 year 40 million (6.5 AAV)
7 year 50 million (7 mil AAV)
8 year 60 million (7.5 AAV)
 

oilerbear

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Jun 2, 2008
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Pay him!!

When you break down comp faced from last 2 years of splits.

Even play:

upper 3rd comp faced:
81gm 29 EVG 39 EVA 68 EVP +21
29/81 = .358 EVG/gm
68/81 = .839 EVP/gm
21/81 = +.259 Goal dif/game

mid 2nd comp faced:
39gm 6 EVG 16 EVA 22 EVP +10
6/39 = .154 EVG/gm
22/39 = .564 EVP/gm
10/39 = +.256 Goal dif/gm

1st comp faced:
39gm 5EVG 5 EVA 10 EVP -12
5/39 = .128 EVp/gm
10/39 = .256 EVP/gm
-12/39 = -.308 Goal diff/gm


PP play:
home:
81gm 8PPG 15 PPA 23 PPP
.099 PPG/gm
.284 PPP/gm

road:
78gm 6 PPG 13 PPA 19 PPP
.077 PPG/gm
.244 PPP/gm

the reason there is a delay is in the bold.
He is not a Pvp forward.
just like Kane he can rack production against 2nd and lower.
But he has yet to prove himself at even versus PvP


AT world cup:


Versus Finland
Playing with Eichel - Larkin; he was +1
Facing 1.48 EVp/60; bottom 2nd/ upper 3rd Fwd line.
Haula - Lehtera - Korpikoski
that HSCA D pair averaged 2.64 EVGA/60 #7/8 D 4th pair.
Lindell - Ristolainen
against a 2nd/3rd comp line he was positive.

Gaudreau Versus Russia:
Playing With proven PvP players mackinnon and RNH; gaudreau was +1
against\a line hat averages 1.91 EVP/60 (mid ist comp)
Kulemin - Malkin - Marchenko
with HSCA Dpair averages 2.12 EVGA/60 mid 2nd comp
Zaitsev - Marchenko
Sheltered with 2 of the best PVP players in the game when healthy he was positive.

Gaudreau with
Eichel - Larkin was -1
facing
kulemin- Malkin- Kucherov
with
Emelin - Markov
Against a PvP line without PvP sheltering he was Negative!

Versus Sweden:
Playing With
RNH-Mackinnon strong PvP forwards
and
Jones- Murray 2.38 EVGA/60 bottom 3rd D pair
against
Hornquist - Backstrom - Forsberg
1.87 EVP/60 mid 1st comp
Hjarlmasson - OEL;
2.00 EVGA/60 mid 1st comp
Facing a top PvP line With top PvP forwards but poor HSCA defence gaudreau was -1


Playing With
RNH-Mackinnon strong PvP forwards
and
Trouba - Gostisbehre 1.92 EVGA/60 bottom upper 1st D pair
against
Berglund - Soderberg - Landeskog
1.52 EVP/60 bottom 2nd comp
Hjarlmasson - OEL;
2.00 EVGA/60 mid 1st D pair
gaudreau was +1 with PvP players and facing lower 2nd supported by upper 1st HSCA protection.


In the run and Gun in overtime Gaudreau was +1

the only issue with him getting feed facing 1st comp is in a 7 game series in playoffs.

cup caliber teams have
- top 15 HSCA save5 goalies
- 3-4 top 90 HSCA d
- good top 150 even producing forward depth.
they are likely going to be in the top 8 of playoff cue.

Meaning Gaudreau is going to get 4 games of
his line being fed
1st to upper 2nd comp forward lines
paired
with oppositions teams top 4 D all likely being top 90 HSCA D.
which is not something he has been able to handle.
 
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oilerbear

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Jun 2, 2008
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I was told there would be no math involved

you would be one who does not like pointing out results versus comp faced.


cause you think there is no difference how a player performs between
1st comp:
(evp/60) forwards;
lucic (#77 EVP/60) - Draisatl (#25 EVP/60) - Eberle (#61 EVP/.60)
upper pair D (evga/60 D)
Davidson (#30 EVGA D) - Larsson (#1 EVGA D)

and

3rd/4th comp(evp/60) forwards;
Bouma (#200 EVP/60) - Stajan (#289 EVP/60) - Brouwer (#204 EVP/60)
bottom pair (evga/60 D)
Engelland (#167 EVG/60) - Hamilton (#174 EVGA/60)
 

InfinityIggy

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Jan 30, 2011
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you would be one who does not like pointing out results versus comp faced.


cause you think there is no difference how a player performs between
1st comp:
(evp/60) forwards;
lucic (#77 EVP/60) - Draisatl (#25 EVP/60) - Eberle (#61 EVP/.60)
upper pair D (evga/60 D)
Davidson (#30 EVGA D) - Larsson (#1 EVGA D)

and

3rd/4th comp(evp/60) forwards;
Bouma (#200 EVP/60) - Stajan (#289 EVP/60) - Brouwer (#204 EVP/60)
bottom pair (evga/60 D)
Engelland (#167 EVG/60) - Hamilton (#174 EVGA/60)

Oilerbear, what do you think Gaudreau's contract should look like based on your statistics? I am curious to know.
 
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