We have to remember that as front offices grow, so do their analytics staffs. Some of you may believe in the classic 'pucks in deep' and 'get to the net' styles of play that 'win hockey games,' but here's the simple formula for how these things go, and why we're seeing so many 'upsets:'
Good teams, on average, win more in the regular season. You know which teams are traditionally good: the standings reflect that. But come playoff time, the lower seeded teams are league average teams trying to beat good teams. What they need to do is create a lot of variance in their play because that's how they beat the good teams.
How does this work in practice: Let's take the MLB for example. The bad teams want highly variable pitching. Offenses tend to be consistent, with bad teams scoring 3 runs a game and good teams scoring 4 to 5 a game. Thus, if you're a good team, you want to reduce variance and have your pitchers consistently give like 2-4 runs up per game. Bad teams, on the other hand, won't win games with their offense so they need highly variable pitchers, with a sequence of games giving up like 1 run, 1 run, 8 runs, 8 runs, 9 runs, 2 runs. In the games letting up 2 or less runs, they're going to win, and the games with lots of runs against, their offense wasn't going to keep up anyways.
Whereas the good teams will win the games on average because their offenses are better, and want less variable pitching.
We can see this reflected in hockey as goals scored rather than against: The panthers, in this series, have scored 1, 6, 4, 2, 2, 7. If the average goals scored in a game is a little above 2, can we see how we can very easily guess which games the panthers have won.
The Bs have scored 5, 3, 6, 4, 3, 3. That is very consistent.
Clearly, the panthers are doing a very good job with producing highly variable results, and the bruins are being very consistent.
With that said now, here are the keys to this game 7:
Score 1st, lock it down.
Don't take dumb penalties. We're going to be penalized. Don't take the objective ones.
Capitalize on powerplays
Risk averse penalty kill - the best way to add a little variance is powerplays. We need to be icing our best PK and making sure we're locking up Brandon Montour's shots and Matt Tkachuk in front of the net. (@ Derek Forbort).
Don't play like assholes.