Pre-Game Talk: Game 7: last chance for the core

[Cor]

Ya, this ain't it Keefe

 

[Gary Nylund]

Gambling if for fools.

Gambling for entertainment is OK, just like paying for any other form of entertainment is OK (though it's not something I do).

Now betting to make money when you have reason to believe you have positive EV is another story entirely.

 

[rumman]

I don’t think they’ll change the core if we lose but if they do, do you trust Dubas to make the changes.

hell no........

 

[Gallagbi]

Ya, this ain't it Keefe

What would you have preferred?

 

[ItalianLeaf]

Split up Matthews and Marner. They try too many cute plays together.

Agreed. These two need to stop thinking this is junior hockey.

 

[hookshott]

I hope we come out flying...and if we don't come out, someone does something about it.

Game 1 of the season we looked flat against the Habs, Simmonds drops the gloves and gets the bench going, and reminds them they are playing hockey. Do something like that again.

So, you'd like to give them a power play to start the game....yeh, sure!

 

[Gallagbi]

Gambling for entertainment is OK, just like paying for any other form of entertainment is OK (though it's not something I do).

Now betting to make money when you have reason to believe you have positive EV is another story entirely.

I'm considering throwing a couple hundredoin the Habs.

Lose and I get a bit of a payday. Win and I'm too delighted to care (and would happily "pay" for a win)

 

[HamiltonNHL]

Nothing will happen next year.
Dubas is going down with his core.

 

[Menzinger]

I'd be fine if they threw out M+M+Nylander form the first shift, if they could get the first goal very early in the game it would really be the spark they need, with that said, happy to see Kerfoot and Nylander will be reunited.

Otherwise they really need to get Nylander, Marner AND Matthews all extra shifts at times with the bottom two lines.

 

[Gallagbi]

So, you'd like to give them a power play to start the game....yeh, sure!

They're not giving an instigator in Game 7 to kick things off

 

[Kurtz]

Gambling for entertainment is OK, just like paying for any other form of entertainment is OK (though it's not something I do).

Now betting to make money when you have reason to believe you have positive EV is another story entirely.

If you know what you're doing, you can make a lot of money gambling on sports. I've done so for the past 3-4 years (mostly NBA). I have a friend who is an NFL expert and has done the same.

Where people lose money is when they gamble on emotion. Or just for fun. Or when they're just not very smart about it.

 

[123offtheglass]

As a Leafs fan I feel like I'm on death row except I have a legitimate chance at a prison break

 

[666]

That's where I set the bar as well. Get to the semis and if you don't win, at least fight like hell. Anything less than that and this team will have underachieved (again), simple as that. Not sure where I'd start with the changes, I think for the most part Dubas has done a really good job and Shanahan hired him so I'd stick with them for now.



That's actually the case for all sports and based on your comments ITT I'd say I know a lot more about sports betting then you do. I have also a few tens of thousands of dollars in profits to back me up but that's another story. Like I said, if you believe the game tomorrow is 50/50, then bet on it. If you can get almost 2 to 1 on your money on a coin flip, you should be betting and if you can do that on a regular basis, you should be rich pretty quickly. If you're wondering how much you should bet, this should be of some help.

Kelly criterion - Wikipedia.

To simplify the Kelly system, the amount you should bet is basically your theoretical edge, multiplied by the odds of cashing your bet multiplied by your bankroll.

Edge:
If you think the odds of MTL winning are 50%, the break even point for the payoff would be 100 dollars on a 100 dollar bet. You're being offered 180 so that is about 80% too much. So that's your edge - 80%. BTW that is an absolutely massive edge!!

Odds of cashing your bet:
That's easy, it's 50% according to you. You're wrong of course but if you're sure you're right, that's the number.

So 80% multiplied by .5 is 40%. That's the proper amount to bet according to Kelly. So if your bankroll for betting is say 10 grand, you should be risking 4 grand on this one bet. Bets with such a high EV (expected value, explained here if you're not familiar with the term Expected Value (EV). ) don't come along too often. I'd say take advantage of this for that reason except for the fact that you're just wrong, this game is not a 50/50 proposition so ignore the oddsmakers at your peril.

And BTW, there are people who bet serious money on sports and some of them do win, there aren't many like that though and it's not easy. And injuries or luck don't enter into it in the long run.



I watch almost all Leaf games, been that way for a very long time and I understand the cap just fine. As far as odds makers go, I think we've covered that already, how much money are you going to bet on MTL tomorrow?

Dude, you have no idea how funny that post was. The "in the long run" part was gold. Sounds like we have a big time gambler on our hands here. LOL. It explains a lot.

As I've said. I don't bet on other peoples skill, or things where an injury or luck are involved. The markets are much more reliable. I highly encourage you not to bet emotionally and only with throw away money as you do show some signs of someone who might have a problem.

Good luck to you brother.

 

[HockeyVirus]

So now both the coach and several members of our core have made reference to the room doubting themselves. Does anyone think we have any chance of winning? Even the team itself knows what will happen. They know Matthews and Marner are overpaid and won't get it done. They know they will make some stupid mistake and blow it. They know they won't outwork anyone.

 

[LeafsMonster]

I dont know why keefe won't put nylander back with matthews and marner on a different line. Matthews has been trying to feed marner all game and marner can't make a play right now.

 

[Gary Nylund]

If you know what you're doing, you can make a lot of money gambling on sports. I've done so for the past 3-4 years (mostly NBA). I have a friend who is an NFL expert and has done the same.

Where people lose money is when they gamble on emotion. Or just for fun. Or when they're just not very smart about it.

Wow, that's very impressive. I won money on proline back in the day when it was easy, winning money betting on sports today is a helluva lot harder so if you are able to to it, my hats off to you (and your friend).

Dude, you have no idea how funny that post was. The "in the long run" part was gold. Sounds like we have a big time gambler on our hands here. LOL. It explains a lot.

As I've said. I don't bet on other peoples skill, or things where an injury or luck are involved. The markets are much more reliable. I highly encourage you not to bet emotionally and only with throw away money as you do show some signs of someone who might have a problem.

Good luck to you brother.

If you don't understand the concept of long run when betting then you haven't got a clue. Good luck to you too.

 

[CabanaBoy5]

I dont know why keefe won't put nylander back with matthews and marner on a different line. Matthews has been trying to feed marner all game and marner can't make a play right now.

Somewhere Babcock is smiling and it's bothering the heck out of me. But you're right, Matthews should be put with Nylander. However, the problem is who do you put Marner with Tavares still injured. There is on one else on the roster who can snipe, besides Robertson, and I don't believe Keefe will play him.

 

[Gallagbi]

Somewhere Babcock is smiling and it's bothering the heck out of me. But you're right, Matthews should be put with Nylander. However, the problem is who do you put Marner with Tavares still injured. There is on one else on the roster who can snipe, besides Robertson, and I don't believe Keefe will play him.

Gally and Kerfoot

You have a finisher in Galchenyuk

 

[RoadWarrior]

I found this interesting... And it is not even like he is being forced by an impending hit most of the time.

This happens far too often for it to be a coincidence or even being scared... Unless he is so scared by the prospect of a hit that even if a guy is not within a 10ft radius of him he will flip the puck out.

I just don't know how you can be in the middle of the ice with no one around you and somehow flip it over the bench and out when you are trying to get Hyman the puck down ice...

I've neve seen a player more afraid of being hit than Mitch Marner.

Somebody needs to take that soy away from the boy.

 

[RoadWarrior]

Somewhere Babcock is smiling and it's bothering the heck out of me. But you're right, Matthews should be put with Nylander. However, the problem is who do you put Marner with Tavares still injured. There is on one else on the roster who can snipe, besides Robertson, and I don't believe Keefe will play him.

You put Marner on the fourth line with Spezza to spell Thornton when he's tired. That's about it.

 

[sittler rules!!!]

Run

Galchenyuk - Kerfoot - Nylander (20 minutes)

Folingo - Matthews- Hyman ( 19 minutes)

Engvall -Spezza - Marner (16 minutes)

Mikheyev - Joe - Simmonds (5 minutes)

 

[rumman]

I've neve seen a player more afraid of being hit than Mitch Marner.

Somebody needs to take that soy away from the boy.

Nylander say hi...........

 

[TheTotalPackage]

As awful as it’s been to see them crater against this weak Habs team, I fully expect them to win tomorrow. Convincingly.

 

[Pete2000]

 

[hockeywiz542]