Pre-Game Talk: Game 7: last chance for the core

[666]

Not sure how to answer that, depends on what you mean by "that good".

It wasn't always 50/50 with the Habs, we were about 7-3 favourites before the games started and we're still better than 6/4 favourites even now going to game 7 without our captain. If you think it's only 50/50 then go bet on the Habs, getting almost 2-1 on your money is very profitable in the long run. I'd say good luck to you but like always, I'm still rooting for the Leafs to win.

I don't bet on other people's skills. Also, I'm rooting for the Leafs and I ALWAYS have but I have realistic expectations. What I mean by "that good" is that it should be obvious that the Leafs aren't contenders. It's the misplaced hope that a bunch of you guys have that's the problem. This place is unbearable after a loss because for some really wrong reasons the vast majority EXPECT the Leafs to win in the playoffs when they aren't built for the playoffs.

We have Zack "Hands" Hyman and Joe Thornton on the PP and traded away another first for Foligno. That really should tell you everything that you need to know there.

I'm pretty sure that you've stated that you hate the Habs and you expected the Leafs to beat them. It's the emotion in all this that I don't get. If you reduced your expectations you could just enjoy the games for what they are. In this case about a 50/50 shot of moving on. Ignore your emotions, the bookies and the "advanced stats" idiots and just use your own judgement and I'm sure that you'll see the light.

 

[WilliamInLondon]

I meant he is a gem and not to be traded.

yeah, I got your point. that's mine as well - he's untouchable from an asset perspective (i.e. like Matthews, Nylander, and Campbell) because you won't get >>>> equal value for.

everyone is tradeable if you can get $1.50 or $3.00 to the dollar. You won't get that for Matthews (i.e. elite/generational talent with a super high price tag), Campbell (i.e. #1 starter making peanuts), Nylander (i.e. overperforming versus contract and clutch performer), and Brodie (i.e. elite defensive game at manageable contract in a market that overpays for offensive numbers and underpays for defense and intangibles). You could argue that Nylander is highly tradeable, but the problem is that it doesn't solve your bloated contract/low-ROI problem in Tavares/Marner/a re-upped Rielly.

Everyone else is on the table for the right offer

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Yeah. Keefe either needs to play Nylander with Matthews but no Marner, or leave Nylander alone and let M&M continue to flounder. All three of them together hurts the one guy that’s actually contributing.

I think you need to take Marner away from both. We need Matthews and Nylander handling the puck as much as possible right now and the only way you do that is by not having Marner there.

I just don't see them tinkering with the lines at all.

 

[seventieslord]

As weak as Matthews and Marner have been offensively, they haven't been on the ice for a goal against at even strength. Strangely, all the players who've been scoring are the same ones who are being scored on.

Don't know how to process that, personally, but those are the facts.

 

[ECanuck]

As weak as Matthews and Marner have been offensively, they haven't been in the ice for a goal against at even strength. Strangely, all the players who've been scoring are the same ones who are being scored on.

Don't know how to process that, personally, but those are the facts.

That's because the guy shadowing you is not trying to score! That is the whole point. You shut down the threat and win the battle elsewhere. This is where Mathews and Marner are supposed to push through and get a game or two.

 

[IPS]

Zeke will always be a fanboy. He supports every decision the club makes. It's not easy to have a rational discussion with fans like that.

Imagine arguing that Marner is just as good of a playoff performer as Point and Rantanen

 

[Gary Nylund]

I'm pretty sure that you've stated that you hate the Habs and you expected the Leafs to beat them. It's the emotion in all this that I don't get. If you reduced your expectations you could just enjoy the games for what they are. In this case about a 50/50 shot of moving on. Ignore your emotions, the bookies and the "advanced stats" idiots and just use your own judgement and I'm sure that you'll see the light.

Nope, the Leafs are strong favourites to win this one. If you don't agree then as I said earlier, go bet on the Habs getting almost 2-1 on your money.

The bookies never let emotions get in the way so ignore what their bushels of money have to say at your peril. The fact that you think they're so far off the mark in this case suggests that it's you who is letting your emotions get in the way.

 

[limeyleafsfan]

Remember that Amazon Prime series on the Leafs season titled "All or Nothing"?

Well it's about to the titled "Nothing" after Game 7.

I've got 0 faith in Matthews and Marner to do anything. If we win, it will be because some random player like Mikheyev somehow scored a hattrick.

I have surely sinned massively in a previous life as I am also a life-long supporter of Tottenham Hotspur FC (The 'Spurs') in the EPL. Last year, they too had the Amazon cameras follow them for a season for a series entitled 'All Or Nothing'. In classic Spurs-mode it duly was 'Nothing'!

Through decades of being able to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory has coined the now well-known term of being 'Spurs-ey'.

Despite being an ocean away and in different sports, the Leafs and Spurs mirror and complement each other perfectly. Neither team EVER miss out on an opportunity to miss out on an opportunity.

So as such, the Leafs right now are just being 'Leafs-ey'.

 

[seventieslord]

That's because the guy shadowing you is not trying to score! That is the whole point. You shut down the threat and win the battle elsewhere. This is where Mathews and Marner are supposed to push through and get a game or two.

Are they really being "shadowed" though?

It seems like they're just trying the same things that worked so well in the regular season, and now they're not working. And they have no answer for that.

Still - imagine what a disaster this would be if they had allowed 4 ES goals in this series in addition to scoring just two.

 

[Cor]

It's hard to argue with that, on paper, this team looks just so damn good. Yet they come out for the biggest game of the year and play like have no interest at all in winning. So WTF is this team?

Dangle in his LFR sort of spoke to this.

Washington was a surprise playoff appearance and learning experience.
Boston V1 was the need to improve defense.
Boston V2 was the need to improve defense.
Columbus was the supporting forwards not being the right mix, goaltending, and the need to improve defense.

Jack Campbell has been stellar. Muzzin, Brodie, the growth of Holl, Bogosian, has made this defense good enough. The supporting forward core entirely changed, and other than Joe Thornton, and at times Wayne Simmonds, have been very good, and done their jobs.

And now the eyes are on Auston Matthews, and Mitch Marner.

How do you fix that problem.

How?

 

[Gallagbi]

Are they really being "shadowed" though?

It seems like they're just trying the same things that worked so well in the regular season, and now they're not working. And they have no answer for that.

Still - imagine what a disaster this would be if they had allowed 4 ES goals in this series in addition to scoring just two.

Seems like they're actually playing much differently. Matthews is much more of the setup man and digging whole Marner is the shooter. AM is seeing less time and space while Marner is getting much more to encourage his shots

 

[3blizzard4]

Said no one ever:
Habs deserve this
Habs have earned this
Habs are dominating

what is being said:
Price is standing on his head carrying this pathetic team
Leafs are shooting themselves in the foot
Leafs are no shows
Leafs are so much better than this Habs team
This shouldn’t be game 7
Habs are on cloud 9 for even being here

 

[NightTrain1]

I agree this isn’t on Shanny or Dubas. This is our two star forwards not being able to play up to expectations, let alone elevate their games.

Sometimes, and many times undeservedly it really doesn't matter. The axe comes down hard at all levels when things are not progressing. I'm personally not %100 pro Dubas like I was 3 years ago but at the same time I think he did a very good job rounding this team out and buffing it up for a successful run.

When you break it down on paper he has added an absolute ton of depth to the squad in every conceivable area that was concerning. Goaltending depth which has proven to be very very successful. Defender depth which saw a huge improvement in how this team was looked at in the back. Size as well as speed in rounding out the forward group as well as a mix of aged perennial all stars and former captains and a smattering of talented young rookie type talent.

 

[Strangle]

I've been saying it for years now - I will judge this team by how they do in the playoffs. So far the team's not looking good (duh) and Marner's not looking anywhere close to the franchise player some say he is. Campbell's been great though and I'd consider extending him to be the top priority in the off-season.

Campbell is the real deal.

 

[Strangle]

Sometimes, and many times undeservedly it really doesn't matter. The axe comes down hard at all levels when things are not progressing. I'm personally not %100 pro Dubas like I was 3 years ago but at the same time I think he did a very good job rounding this team out and buffing it up for a successful run.

When you break it down on paper he has added an absolute ton of depth to the squad in every conceivable area that was concerning. Goaltending depth which has proven to be very very successful. Defender depth which saw a huge improvement in how this team was looked at in the back. Size as well as speed in rounding out the forward group as well as a mix of aged perennial all stars and former captains and a smattering of talented young rookie type talent.

The failure of this team is 100% on the players.

Dubas has done a wonderful job at every point of this team, need to keep him next year and beyond so he can figure out what the problem is and fix it

 

[Captain Crunch]

Not sure the 2nd period was any better, that may have been the worst two period stretch of the entire season. The fact that it happened in the most important game of the year is beyond embarrassing, and doesn't say much for the quality of this team.

I was going to include the second as well, but I thought we out shot them so I was willing to give a little bit on that.
But you’re right, we really only showed up in the last 8 minutes and the overtime.
I find it incredulous that, starting in game 5, they didn’t come out with guns ablazing, so to speak. How in Hell they haven’t figured out what it takes to win in the playoffs, just boggles my mind.
As far as I’m concerned, unless we make it to the semifinals, and go at least 6 hard fought, gut wrenching games, some serious changes need to be made, starting with Dubas and Shanahan.

 

[seventieslord]

It's true though, the Leafs are definitely "favoured" to win this game. they're the overwhelming favourite based on regular season record, they have home ice, and they've been the better team in this series. They have scored on Price 16 times to 11 for the Habs on Campbell, and the quantity and quality of the chances both teams have had suggests that those numbers should be 18 and 13 (and let's be clear, those extra 2 goals should have been scored by the first line). Any way you slice it, they've been better. It's remarkable that the series is tied 3-3 given the Habs' typical level of play compared to the Leafs.

If you take the 31 goals that were scored in these six games, put them on blue and red balls, and pull them out of a bag in sets of five, in all likelihood the Leafs have four wins by the time six games have been played. That's what pythagorean expected win percentage tells us.

But the leafs are the complete opposite of clutch, and the timing of the Habs' goals has led to this outcome. The Habs have gutted out a one goal win and two overtime wins - in the latter they were thoroughly outclassed, but they somehow scored before the Leafs did.

It's hard to know what to do with this information. If you're the Leafs, you know you're 70/30 to win game 7 if you just keep up playing how you're playing. But at the same time - something has to change. We can all see that. But what if you change the wrong thing? You don't get any do-overs.

 

[SoftDumpNtheCorner88]

I don’t think they’ll change the core if we lose but if they do, do you trust Dubas to make the changes.

I do

Dubas made all the right moves for this core... They were the best team in the regular season and where better than Montreal in this series up 3-1.. not be able to close out the game is on the core, Dubas put the pieces together to support them... They need to play harder and get tougher themselves and stop playing like spoiled rich babies and just win.. they got paid now do your f***in job.

 

[seventieslord]

We can't blame this on goaltending at all. Price has been good, but we've gotten a lot past him. He's very beatable. Campbell has been perfectly fine and has saved more than his statistical expectation. This is about the possession, the territorial advantage, and the leafs have that. Habs have scored a handful of greasy goals and if the Leafs could have done just a little of the same, this wouldn't have been close. Hopefully they win tomorrow and learn the lesson going forward.

 

[ottomaddox]

An excellent post!
The only problem I have is if you trade Tavares, and believe me I’d be all for that, is you would have to overpay big time for another UFA of his caliber, if any would even sign here. I’ve always maintained that we weren’t ready when Dubas signed Tavares. That sped up the rebuild. And to make matters worse, Dubas overpaid for Marner. This team is poorly constructed. Spending half your cap on 4 forwards is insane.
I, too, am hoping we lose tomorrow night, but only if it leads to getting rid of Dubas, and probably Shanahan should also go. As for Keefe, he is as stubborn as Babcock was. How else can you explain having Thornton playing on the first power-play unit, or even playing at all. And probably Simmons should be sitting as well. I feel Dubas was outcoached last year, and it’s happening again.

Do you mean Keefe?

 

[SeenSchenn2]

There was also definitely a lot more clutching and grabbing in G6, which I'd totally expect to carry over to G7.

 

[666]

Nope, the Leafs are strong favourites to win this one. If you don't agree then as I said earlier, go bet on the Habs getting almost 2-1 on your money.

The bookies never let emotions get in the way so ignore what their bushels of money have to say at your peril. The fact that you think they're so far off the mark in this case suggests that it's you who is letting your emotions get in the way.

I don't know much about sports gambling but I'm pretty sure that in some sports the odds are based on who has bet on who guarenting that the odds maker makes money no matter who wins. I would imagine that wherever you are getting your odds from that those odds makers are counting on things like your emotions to predict more about who is betting on who than the actual result of the contest. They can probably predict betting patterns based on emotions to set the odds better than they can predict scores. Either way anyone who bets serious money on sports is probably pretty dumb because NO ONE can predict injuries or luck.

If you're going to use odds makers to discuss the quality of the Leafs vs watching the actual games and understanding things like the cap then that's just sad.

 

[Captain Crunch]

Do you mean Keefe?

Haha. Yes, I meant Keefe. Thanks for pointing that out.

 

[CabanaBoy5]

It's true though, the Leafs are definitely "favoured" to win this game. they're the overwhelming favourite based on regular season record, they have home ice, and they've been the better team in this series. They have scored on Price 16 times to 11 for the Habs on Campbell, and the quantity and quality of the chances both teams have had suggests that those numbers should be 18 and 13 (and let's be clear, those extra 2 goals should have been scored by the first line). Any way you slice it, they've been better. It's remarkable that the series is tied 3-3 given the Habs' typical level of play compared to the Leafs.

If you take the 31 goals that were scored in these six games, put them on blue and red balls, and pull them out of a bag in sets of five, in all likelihood the Leafs have four wins by the time six games have been played. That's what pythagorean expected win percentage tells us.

But the leafs are the complete opposite of clutch, and the timing of the Habs' goals has led to this outcome. The Habs have gutted out a one goal win and two overtime wins - in the latter they were thoroughly outclassed, but they somehow scored before the Leafs did.

It's hard to know what to do with this information. If you're the Leafs, you know you're 70/30 to win game 7 if you just keep up playing how you're playing. But at the same time - something has to change. We can all see that. But what if you change the wrong thing? You don't get any do-overs.

Maybe the core has to change their attitudes. Maturity will go a long way to improved results. The sheepish bantam mistakes of Marner reek of immaturity. Consistently saying we have to "start on time" or "we weren't engaged at the start of the game" is immaturity. The problem is, these guys have been through this before and we were supposed to have learned our lessons against Boston and Washington. We haven't scored in the first period the way we have all season. The shots were 8-0 before we got our first shot on goal. Two comebacks in the period mask how we haven't scored early in games. Perhaps the repercussions of possibly losing this series will help in the core's maturity. If not, get rid of the pretty boy or the prepubescent dangler.

 

[hamzarocks]

Run

Galchenyuk - Kerfoot - Nylander (20 minutes)

Folingo - Matthews- Hyman ( 19 minutes)

Engvall -Spezza - Marner (16 minutes)

Mikheyev - Joe - Simmonds (5 minutes)